Probability Commons^™

The "Benfordness" Of Bach Music, Chadrack Bantange, Darby Burgett, Luke Haws, Sybil Prince Nelson

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this paper we analyze the distribution of musical note frequencies in Hertz to see whether they follow the logarithmic Benford distribution. Our results show that the music of Johann Sebastian Bach and Johann Christian Bach is Benford distributed while the computer-generated music is not. We also find that computer-generated music is statistically less Benford distributed than human- composed music.

A Gender And Race Theoretical And Probabilistic Analysis Of The Recent Title Ix Policy Changes, Jordan Wellington

Scripps Senior Theses

On May 6th, 2020, after extensive public comment and review, the Department of Education published the final rule for the new Title IX regulations, which took effect in schools on August 14th. Title IX is the nearly fifty year old piece of the Education Amendments that prohibits sexual discrimination in federally funded schools. Several of these changes, such as the inclusion of live hearings and cross examination of witnesses, have been widely criticized by victims’ rights advocates for potentially retraumatizing victims of sexual assault and discouraging students from pursuing a Title IX claim. While the impact of the new regulations …

Quantifying Controllability In Temporal Networks With Uncertainty, James C. Boerkoel Jr., Lindsay Popowski, Michael Gao, Hemeng Li, Savana Ammons, Shyan Akmal

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

Controllability for Simple Temporal Networks with Uncertainty (STNUs) has thus far been limited to three levels: strong, dynamic, and weak. Because of this, there is currently no systematic way for an agent to assess just how far from being controllable an uncontrollable STNU is. We provide new insights inspired by a geometric interpretation of STNUs to introduce the degrees of strong and dynamic controllability - continuous metrics that measure how far a network is from being controllable. We utilize these metrics to approximate the probabilities that an STNU can be dispatched successfully offline and online respectively. We introduce new methods …

Dynamic Control Of Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks, James C. Boerkoel Jr., Michael Gao, Lindsay Popowski

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

The controllability of a temporal network is defined as an agent’s ability to navigate around the uncertainty in its schedule and is well-studied for certain networks of temporal constraints. However, many interesting real-world problems can be better represented as Probabilistic Simple Temporal Networks (PSTNs) in which the uncertain durations are represented using potentially-unbounded probability density functions. This can make it inherently impossible to control for all eventualities. In this paper, we propose two new dynamic controllability algorithms that attempt to maximize the likelihood of successfully executing a schedule within a PSTN. The first approach, which we call MIN-LOSS DC, finds …

How Machine Learning And Probability Concepts Can Improve Nba Player Evaluation, Harrison Miller

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper I will be breaking down a scholarly article, written by Sameer K. Deshpande and Shane T. Jensen, that proposed a new method to evaluate NBA players. The NBA is the highest level professional basketball league in America and stands for the National Basketball Association. They proposed to build a model that would result in how NBA players impact their teams chances of winning a game, using machine learning and probability concepts. I preface that by diving into these concepts and their mathematical backgrounds. These concepts include building a linear model using ordinary least squares method, the bias …

Snap Scholar: The User Experience Of Engaging With Academic Research Through A Tappable Stories Medium, Ieva Burk

CMC Senior Theses

With the shift to learn and consume information through our mobile devices, most academic research is still only presented in long-form text. The Stanford Scholar Initiative has explored the segment of content creation and consumption of academic research through video. However, there has been another popular shift in presenting information from various social media platforms and media outlets in the past few years. Snapchat and Instagram have introduced the concept of tappable “Stories” that have gained popularity in the realm of content consumption.

To accelerate the growth of the creation of these research talks, I propose an alternative to video: …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to explain …

Kinetic Monte Carlo Methods For Computing First Capture Time Distributions In Models Of Diffusive Absorption, Daniel Schmidt

HMC Senior Theses

In this paper, we consider the capture dynamics of a particle undergoing a random walk above a sheet of absorbing traps. In particular, we seek to characterize the distribution in time from when the particle is released to when it is absorbed. This problem is motivated by the study of lymphocytes in the human blood stream; for a particle near the surface of a lymphocyte, how long will it take for the particle to be captured? We model this problem as a diffusive process with a mixture of reflecting and absorbing boundary conditions. The model is analyzed from two approaches. …

Teaching The Quandary Of Statistical Jurisprudence: A Review-Essay On Math On Trial By Schneps And Colmez, Noah Giansiracusa

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This review-essay on the mother-and-daughter collaboration Math on Trial stems from my recent experience using this book as the basis for a college freshman seminar on the interactions between math and law. I discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this book as an accessible introduction to this enigmatic yet deeply important topic. For those considering teaching from this text (a highly recommended endeavor) I offer some curricular suggestions.

Simple Tools With Nontrivial Implications For Assessment Of Hypothesis-Evidence Relationships: The Interrogator’S Fallacy, Justus R. Riek

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This paper takes a mathematical analysis technique derived from the Interrogator’s Fallacy (in a legal context), expands upon it to identify a set of three interrelated probabilistic tools with wide applicability, and demonstrates their ability to assess hypothesis-evidence relationships associated with important problems

Cycle Lengths Of Θ-Biased Random Permutations, Tongjia Shi

HMC Senior Theses

Consider a probability distribution on the permutations of n elements. If the probability of each permutation is proportional to θ^K, where K is the number of cycles in the permutation, then we say that the distribution generates a θ-biased random permutation. A random permutation is a special θ-biased random permutation with θ = 1. The m^th moment of the r^th longest cycle of a random permutation is Θ(n^m), regardless of r and θ. The joint moments are derived, and it is shown that the longest cycles of a permutation can either be positively or …

Book Review: What’S Luck Got To Do With It? The History, Mathematics, And Psychology Of The Gambler’S Illusion By Joseph Mazur, Michael Lugo

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

This review of Joseph Mazur's book on the history of gambling, for a general audience, is in three parts, paralleling the structure of the book. The first part briefly outlines Mazur's coverage of the history of probability from prehistory to the present day, with a focus on gambling. The second part examines the relationship between the mathematics of gambling and probability theory, and summarizes classical problems in probability arising from gambling such as Galileo's dice and the Pascal-Fermat problem of points. The third part, on psychology, discusses the gambler's illusion and psychological motivations for gambling.

Markov Bases For Noncommutative Harmonic Analysis Of Partially Ranked Data, Ann Johnston

HMC Senior Theses

Given the result $v_0$ of a survey and a nested collection of summary statistics that could be used to describe that result, it is natural to ask which of these summary statistics best describe $v_0$. In 1998 Diaconis and Sturmfels presented an approach for determining the conditional significance of a higher order statistic, after sampling a space conditioned on the value of a lower order statistic. Their approach involves the computation of a Markov basis, followed by the use of a Markov process with stationary hypergeometric distribution to generate a sample.This technique for data analysis has become an accepted tool …

Martingale Couplings And Bounds On Tails Of Probability Distributions, Kyle Luh

HMC Senior Theses

Wassily Hoeffding, in his 1963 paper, introduces a procedure to derive inequalities between distributions. This method relies on finding a martingale coupling between the two random variables. I have developed a construction that establishes such couplings in various urn models. I use this construction to prove the inequality between the hypergeometric and binomial random variables that appears in Hoeffding's paper. I have then used and extended my urn construction to create new inequalities.

Random Walks On The Torus With Several Generators, Timothy Prescott '02, Francis E. Su

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

Given n vectors {_i} ∈ [0, 1)^d, consider a random walk on the d-dimensional torus ^d = ℝ^d/ℤ^d generated by these vectors by successive addition and subtraction. For certain sets of vectors, this walk converges to Haar (uniform) measure on the torus. We show that the discrepancy distance D(Q*^k) between the kth step distribution of the walk and Haar measure is bounded below by D(Q*^k) ≥ C₁k^−n/2, where C₁ = C(n, d) is …

On Choosing And Bounding Probability Metrics, Alison L. Gibbs, Francis E. Su

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

When studying convergence of measures, an important issue is the choice of probability metric. We provide a summary and some new results concerning bounds among some important probability metrics/distances that are used by statisticians and probabilists. Knowledge of other metrics can provide a means of deriving bounds for another one in an applied problem. Considering other metrics can also provide alternate insights. We also give examples that show that rates of convergence can strongly depend on the metric chosen. Careful consideration is necessary when choosing a metric.

Discrepancy Convergence For The Drunkard's Walk On The Sphere, Francis E. Su

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

We analyze the drunkard's walk on the unit sphere with step size θ and show that the walk converges in order C/sin²(θ) steps in the discrepancy metric (C a constant). This is an application of techniques we develop for bounding the discrepancy of random walks on Gelfand pairs generated by bi-invariant measures. In such cases, Fourier analysis on the acting group admits tractable computations involving spherical functions. We advocate the use of discrepancy as a metric on probabilities for state spaces with isometric group actions.

What's Best?, Arthur T. Benjamin, Matthew T. Fluet '99

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided in this article.

A Rational Solution To Cootie, Arthur T. Benjamin, Matthew T. Fluet '99

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

No abstract provided in this article.

A Leveque-Type Lower Bound For Discrepancy, Francis E. Su

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

A sharp lower bound for discrepancy on R / Z is derived that resembles the upper bound due to LeVeque. An analogous bound is proved for discrepancy on R^k / Z^k. These are discussed in the more general context of the discrepancy of probablity measures. As applications, the bounds are applied to Kronecker sequences and to a random walk on the torus.

Convergence Of Random Walks On The Circle Generated By An Irrational Rotation, Francis E. Su

All HMC Faculty Publications and Research

Fix . Consider the random walk on the circle which proceeds by repeatedly rotating points forward or backward, with probability , by an angle . This paper analyzes the rate of convergence of this walk to the uniform distribution under ``discrepancy'' distance. The rate depends on the continued fraction properties of the number . We obtain bounds for rates when is any irrational, and a sharp rate when is a quadratic irrational. In that case the discrepancy falls as (up to constant factors), where is the number of steps in the walk. This is the first example of a sharp …