Probability Commons^™

Joint Probability Analysis Of Extreme Precipitation And Water Level For Chicago, Illinois, Anna Li Holey

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

A compound flooding event occurs when there is a combination of two or more extreme factors that happen simultaneously or in quick succession and can lead to flooding. In the Great Lakes region, it is common for a compound flooding event to occur with a high lake water level and heavy rainfall. With the potential of increasing water levels and an increase in precipitation under climate change, the Great Lakes coastal regions could be at risk for more frequent and severe flooding. The City of Chicago which is located on Lake Michigan has a high population and dense infrastructure and …

Defining Viable Solar Resource Locations In The Southeast United States Using The Satellite-Based Glass Product, Jolie Kavanagh

Theses and Dissertations

This research uses satellite data and the moment statistics to determine if solar farms can be placed in the Southeast US. From 2001-2019, the data are analyzed in reference to the Southwest US, where solar farms are located. The clean energy need is becoming more common; therefore, more locations than arid environments must be observed. The Southeast US is the main location of interest due to the warm, moist environment throughout the year. This research uses the Global Land Surface Satellite (GLASS) photosynthetically active radiation product (PAR) to determine viable locations for solar panels. A probability density function (PDF) along …

Lake Huron Shoreline Analysis, Shubham Satish Nandanwar

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Lake Huron is a popular tourist destination and is home to several businesses and residents. Since the shoreline is dynamic and is subject to change over the years due to several factors such as a change in water level, soil type, human encroachment, etc., these locations tend to encounter floods due to increased water levels and wind speed. This causes erosion and loss to the properties along the shoreline.

This study is based on two areas of interest named Pinery Provincial Park and Sauble Beach which are located on the shoreline of Lake Huron where Pinery Provincial Park is a …

Identification And Characterization Of Forest Fire Risk Zones Leveraging Machine Learning Methods, Joshua Balson, Matt Chinchilla, Cam Lu, Jeff Washburn, Nibhrat Lohia

SMU Data Science Review

Across the United States, record numbers of wildfires are observed costing billions of dollars in property damage, polluting the environment, and putting lives at risk. The ability of emergency management professionals, city planners, and private entities such as insurance companies to determine if an area is at higher risk of a fire breaking out has never been greater. This paper proposes a novel methodology for identifying and characterizing zones with increased risks of forest fires. Methods involving machine learning techniques use the widely available and recorded data, thus making it possible to implement the tool quickly.

Next-Generation Air Force Weather Metrics Via Bayes Cost Analysis, Brandon M. Bailey

Theses and Dissertations

This research proposes a new methodology for U.S. Air Force weather forecast metrics. Military weather forecasters are essentially statistical classifiers. They categorize future conditions into an operationally relevant category based on current data, much like an Artificial Neural Net or Logistic Regression model. There is extensive literature on statistically-based metrics for these types of classifiers. Additionally, in the U.S. Air Force, forecast errors (errors in classification) have quantifiable operational costs and benefits associated with incorrect or correct classification decisions. There is a methodology in the literature, Bayes Cost, which provides a structure for creating statistically rigorous metrics for classification decisions …

An Overview And Evaluation Of Synthetc: A Statistical Model For Extra-Tropical Cyclones, Rafael Uryayev

Dissertations and Theses

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the most common weather phenomena affecting the United States, Canada, and Europe. They can pose serious hazards over large swaths of area. In this thesis, a statistical model of ETCs, called SynthETC, is discussed. The model accounts for the for genesis, track path, termination, and intensity of statistically generated ETCs. Genesis is modeled as a Poisson process, whose mean is determined by climate and historical information. Tracks are modeled as a regression-mean determined by climate and historical information plus a stochastic component. Lysis is modeled using logistic regression, with climate states as covariates. Intensity is modeled …

Biodiversity And Distribution Of Benthic Foraminifera In Harrington Sound, Bermuda: The Effects Of Physical And Geochemical Factors On Dominant Taxa, Nam Le

Honors Theses

Harrington Sound, Bermuda, is a nearly enclosed lagoon acting as a subtropical/tropical, carbonate-rich basin in which carbonate sediments, reef patches, and carbonate-producing organisms accumulate. Here, one of the most important calcareous groups is the Foraminifera. Analyses of common benthic orders, including miliolids (Quinqueloculina and Triloculina spp.) and rotaliids (Homotrema rubrum, Elphidium spp., and Ammonia beccarii), are essential in understanding past and present environmental conditions affecting the island's coastal environment. These taxa have been studied previously; however, factors explaining their individual patterns of abundance in the Sound are not well detailed. The goal of this study is …

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

Adjusted Tornado Probabilities, Holly M. Widen, James B. Elsner, Cameron Amrine, Rizalino B. Cruz, Erik Fraza, Laura Michaels, Loury Migliorelli, Brendan Mulholland, Michael Patterson, Sarah Strazzo, Guang Xing

Publications

Tornado occurrence rates computed from the available reports are biased low relative to the unknown true rates. To correct for this low bias, the authors demonstrate a method to estimate the annual probability of being struck by a tornado that uses the average report density estimated as a function of distance from nearest city/town center. The method is demonstrated on Kansas and then applied to 15 other tornado-prone states from Nebraska to Tennessee. States are ranked according to their adjusted tornado rate and comparisons are made with raw rates published elsewhere. The adjusted rates, expressed as return periods, arestates, including …

Retrieval Of Sub-Pixel-Based Fire Intensity And Its Application For Characterizing Smoke Injection Heights And Fire Weather In North America, David Peterson

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

For over two decades, satellite sensors have provided the locations of global fire activity with ever-increasing accuracy. However, the ability to measure fire intensity, know as fire radiative power (FRP), and its potential relationships to meteorology and smoke plume injection heights, are currently limited by the pixel resolution. This dissertation describes the development of a new, sub-pixel-based FRP calculation (FRP_f) for fire pixels detected by the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fire detection algorithm (Collection 5), which is subsequently applied to several large wildfire events in North America. The methodology inherits an earlier bi-spectral algorithm for retrieving sub-pixel …

Masw Tests For Detection Of Decayed Buried Timber Within Railway Embankments, Barry A. Palynchuk Phd, Chris Bunce Phd, Steve Sather M.Eng

Barry A. Palynchuk PhD

No abstract provided.

Approaches To Mitigating Decayed Buried Timber Within Railway Embankments, Barry A. Palynchuk Phd

Barry A. Palynchuk PhD

During the last three years, several sinkholes have been observed along CPR railway lines in Southern Ontario. The sinkholes have formed as a result of the decay of buried timber trestles in railway embankments. Although it has not occurred the sinkholes could result in hazardous changes in track geometry under load. This study summarizes the site investigation results and remedial methods implemented at five sites in southern Ontario. Remedial methods include placement geosynthetic reinforcement, soil-cement column reinforcement and grouting of voids at the trestle bents. The design, installation methods and construction constraints for the remedial options are described in this …

Comparison Between Analytical Probabilistic And Computer Simulation Models, Using Current Design Examples, Barry A. Palynchuk Phd

Barry A. Palynchuk PhD

Closed form analytical expressions have been developed to solve several basic problems related to the hydrologic design of storm water management facilities. The collection of these analytical expressions is referred to as the Analytical Probabilistic Storm Water Models (APSWM). APSWM can be used as an alternative to the design storm simulation models in the design and analysis of storm water management facilities. In this paper, a comparison is made between APSWM and design storm simulation models as applied to an actual design case. Conventional outputs such as runoff volume, peak discharge, and peak discharge from detention ponds are reviewed and …

Emergency Response Canadian Pacific Railway Canadian Main Line, Barry A. Palynchuk Phd, Michael J. Loehr, Robert W. Badger, Robert P. Conroy, Clive H. Mackay

Barry A. Palynchuk PhD

In late June 1998, a major storm event occurred in the Adirondack Mountains in the vicinity of Keeseville, New York about 150 miles north of Albany. This storm resulted in unprecedented damage to the Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) Canadian Mainline along the shores of Lake Champlain. The storm caused 14 major embankment failures and washouts, numerous minor failures, severe bridge foundation scour and a major mainline derailment.

Estimating The Probability Of Severe Convective Storms: A Local Perspective For The Central And Northern Plains, Preston W. Leftwich Jr.

NOAA Technical Reports and Related Materials

Summary and Conclusions

A procedure to estimate probabilities of the occurrence of severe convective storms within local areas has been described. Probabilities were based on a simulated climatology and the relative frequency of severe convective events when a selected site was contained within an operational Outlook or Watch. Combined data from five local areas were used to develop a general model for local probabilities within the central and northern Plains region. Attachment of probabilities to specific products placed values within a framework familiar to both forecasters and "end-users." Application of results in an operational scenario demonstrated representative local probabilities and …