Multivariate Analysis Commons^™

Arima Models For Bank Failures: Prediction And Comparison, Fangjin Cui

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The number of bank failures has increased dramatically over the last twenty-two years. A common notion in economics is that some banks can become "too big to fail." Is this still a true statement? What is the relationship, if any, between bank sizes and bank failures? In this thesis, the proposed modeling techniques are applied to real bank failure data from the FDIC. In particular, quarterly data from 1989:Q1 to 2010:Q4 are used in the data analysis, which includes three major parts: 1) pairwise bank failure rate comparisons using the conditional test (Przyborowski and Wilenski, 1940); 2) development of the …

Cv, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

International Diversification: An Extreme Value Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Peña, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Rejoinder: Estimation Issues For Copulas Applied To Marketing Data, Peter Danaher, Michael Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Estimating copula models using Bayesian methods presents some subtle challenges, ranging from specification of the prior to computational tractability. There is also some debate about what is the most appropriate copula to employ from those available. We address these issues here and conclude by discussing further applications of copula models in marketing.

Forecasting Television Ratings, Peter Danaher, Tracey Dagger, Michael Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Despite the state of flux in media today, television remains the dominant player globally for advertising spend. Since television advertising time is purchased on the basis of projected future ratings, and ad costs have skyrocketed, there is increasing pressure to forecast television ratings accurately. Previous forecasting methods are not generally very reliable and many have not been validated, but more distressingly, none have been tested in today’s multichannel environment. In this study we compare 8 different forecasting models, ranging from a naïve empirical method to a state-of-the-art Bayesian model-averaging method. Our data come from a recent time period, 2004-2008 in …

Windows Executable For Gaussian Copula With Nbd Margins, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

This is an example Windows 32bit program to estimate a Gaussian copula model with NBD margins. The margins are estimated first using MLE, and the copula second using Bayesian MCMC. The model was discussed in Danaher & Smith (2011; Marketing Science) as example 4 (section 4.2).

Modeling Multivariate Distributions Using Copulas: Applications In Marketing, Peter J. Danaher, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

In this research we introduce a new class of multivariate probability models to the marketing literature. Known as “copula models”, they have a number of attractive features. First, they permit the combination of any univariate marginal distributions that need not come from the same distributional family. Second, a particular class of copula models, called “elliptical copula”, have the property that they increase in complexity at a much slower rate than existing multivariate probability models as the number of dimensions increase. Third, they are very general, encompassing a number of existing multivariate models, and provide a framework for generating many more. …

Bicycle Commuting In Melbourne During The 2000s Energy Crisis: A Semiparametric Analysis Of Intraday Volumes, Michael S. Smith, Goeran Kauermann

Michael Stanley Smith

Cycling is attracting renewed attention as a mode of transport in western urban environments, yet the determinants of usage are poorly understood. In this paper we investigate some of these using intraday bicycle volumes collected via induction loops located at ten bike paths in the city of Melbourne, Australia, between December 2005 and June 2008. The data are hourly counts at each location, with temporal and spatial disaggregation allowing for the impact of meteorology to be measured accurately for the first time. Moreover, during this period petrol prices varied dramatically and the data also provide a unique opportunity to assess …

Modeling Longitudinal Data Using A Pair-Copula Decomposition Of Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Aleksey Min, Carlos Almeida, Claudia Czado

Michael Stanley Smith

Copulas have proven to be very successful tools for the flexible modelling of cross-sectional dependence. In this paper we express the dependence structure of continuous-valued time series data using a sequence of bivariate copulas. This corresponds to a type of decomposition recently called a ‘vine’ in the graphical models literature, where each copula is entitled a ‘pair-copula’. We propose a Bayesian approach for the estimation of this dependence structure for longitudinal data. Bayesian selection ideas are used to identify any independence pair-copulas, with the end result being a parsimonious representation of a time-inhomogeneous Markov process of varying order. Estimates are …

Mixture Of Factor Analyzers With Information Criteria And The Genetic Algorithm, Esra Turan

Doctoral Dissertations

In this dissertation, we have developed and combined several statistical techniques in Bayesian factor analysis (BAYFA) and mixture of factor analyzers (MFA) to overcome the shortcoming of these existing methods. Information Criteria are brought into the context of the BAYFA model as a decision rule for choosing the number of factors m along with the Press and Shigemasu method, Gibbs Sampling and Iterated Conditional Modes deterministic optimization. Because of sensitivity of BAYFA on the prior information of the factor pattern structure, the prior factor pattern structure is learned directly from the given sample observations data adaptively using Sparse Root algorithm. …

Estimating Confidence Intervals For Eigenvalues In Exploratory Factor Analysis, Ross Larsen, Russell Warne

Russell T Warne

Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) has become a common procedure in educational and psychological research. In the course of performing an EFA, researchers often base the decision of how many factors to retain on the eigenvalues for the factors. However, many researchers do not realize that eigenvalues, like all sample statistics, are subject to sampling error, which means that confidence intervals (CIs) can be estimated for each eigenvalue. In the present article, we demonstrate two methods of estimating CIs for eigenvalues: one based on the mathematical properties of the central limit theorem, and the other based on bootstrapping. References to appropriate …

Statistical Analysis Of Texas Holdem Poker, Daniel Bragonier

Statistics

Gathered lifetime online Poker data for Mike Linn. Attempted to analyze data to obtain information to maximize profit. Techniques included Univariate Analysis, Regression analysis, Anova analysis, Logistic Regression, and outlier Analysis. After the analysis, nothing of supreme importance or sustenance was found. Encountered issues with too much power. Results lead to plenty of statistical significance, but little practical significance. Results showed that the data did not provide all the answers that were being sought after, but there was some value in examining the data in a strict statistical manner.

International Diversification: A Copula Approach, Lorán Chollete, Victor De La Pena, Ching-Chih Lu

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Wavelet-Based Functional Linear Mixed Models: An Application To Measurement Error–Corrected Distributed Lag Models, Elizabeth J. Malloy, Jeffrey S. Morris, Sara D. Adar, Helen Suh, Diane R. Gold, Brent A. Coull

Jeffrey S. Morris

Frequently, exposure data are measured over time on a grid of discrete values that collectively define a functional observation. In many applications, researchers are interested in using these measurements as covariates to predict a scalar response in a regression setting, with interest focusing on the most biologically relevant time window of exposure. One example is in panel studies of the health effects of particulate matter (PM), where particle levels are measured over time. In such studies, there are many more values of the functional data than observations in the data set so that regularization of the corresponding functional regression coefficient …

Members’ Discoveries: Fatal Flaws In Cancer Research, Jeffrey S. Morris

Jeffrey S. Morris

A recent article published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (AOAS) by two MD Anderson researchers—Keith Baggerly and Kevin Coombes—dissects results from a highly-influential series of medical papers involving genomics-driven personalized cancer therapy, and outlines a series of simple yet fatal flaws that raises serious questions about the veracity of the original results. Having immediate and strong impact, this paper, along with related work, is providing the impetus for new standards of reproducibility in scientific research.

Statistical Contributions To Proteomic Research, Jeffrey S. Morris, Keith A. Baggerly, Howard B. Gutstein, Kevin R. Coombes

Jeffrey S. Morris

Proteomic profiling has the potential to impact the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of various diseases. A number of different proteomic technologies are available that allow us to look at many proteins at once, and all of them yield complex data that raise significant quantitative challenges. Inadequate attention to these quantitative issues can prevent these studies from achieving their desired goals, and can even lead to invalid results. In this chapter, we describe various ways the involvement of statisticians or other quantitative scientists in the study team can contribute to the success of proteomic research, and we outline some of the …

Informatics And Statistics For Analyzing 2-D Gel Electrophoresis Images, Andrew W. Dowsey, Jeffrey S. Morris, Howard G. Gutstein, Guang Z. Yang

Jeffrey S. Morris

Whilst recent progress in ‘shotgun’ peptide separation by integrated liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry (LC/MS) has enabled its use as a sensitive analytical technique, proteome coverage and reproducibility is still limited and obtaining enough replicate runs for biomarker discovery is a challenge. For these reasons, recent research demonstrates the continuing need for protein separation by two-dimensional gel electrophoresis (2-DE). However, with traditional 2-DE informatics, the digitized images are reduced to symbolic data though spot detection and quantification before proteins are compared for differential expression by spot matching. Recently, a more robust and automated paradigm has emerged where gels are directly …

Bayesian Random Segmentationmodels To Identify Shared Copy Number Aberrations For Array Cgh Data, Veerabhadran Baladandayuthapani, Yuan Ji, Rajesh Talluri, Luis E. Nieto-Barajas, Jeffrey S. Morris

Jeffrey S. Morris

Array-based comparative genomic hybridization (aCGH) is a high-resolution high-throughput technique for studying the genetic basis of cancer. The resulting data consists of log fluorescence ratios as a function of the genomic DNA location and provides a cytogenetic representation of the relative DNA copy number variation. Analysis of such data typically involves estimation of the underlying copy number state at each location and segmenting regions of DNA with similar copy number states. Most current methods proceed by modeling a single sample/array at a time, and thus fail to borrow strength across multiple samples to infer shared regions of copy number aberrations. …

Bayesian Inference For A Periodic Stochastic Volatility Model Of Intraday Electricity Prices, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

The Gaussian stochastic volatility model is extended to allow for periodic autoregressions (PAR) in both the level and log-volatility process. Each PAR is represented as a first order vector autoregression for a longitudinal vector of length equal to the period. The periodic stochastic volatility model is therefore expressed as a multivariate stochastic volatility model. Bayesian posterior inference is computed using a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for the multivariate representation. A circular prior that exploits the periodicity is suggested for the log-variance of the log-volatilities. The approach is applied to estimate a periodic stochastic volatility model for half-hourly electricity prices …

Bayesian Skew Selection For Multivariate Models, Michael S. Smith, Anastasios Panagiotelis

Michael Stanley Smith

We develop a Bayesian approach for the selection of skew in multivariate skew t distributions constructed through hidden conditioning in the manners suggested by either Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) or Sahu, Dey and Branco~(2003). We show that the skew coefficients for each margin are the same for the standardized versions of both distributions. We introduce binary indicators to denote whether there is symmetry, or skew, in each dimension. We adopt a proper beta prior on each non-zero skew coefficient, and derive the corresponding prior on the skew parameters. In both distributions we show that as the degrees of freedom increases, …

A Statistical Framework For The Analysis Of Chip-Seq Data, Pei Fen Kuan, Dongjun Chung, Guangjin Pan, James A. Thomson, Ron Stewart, Sunduz Keles

Sunduz Keles

Chromatin immunoprecipitation followed by sequencing (ChIP-Seq) has revolutionalized experiments for genome-wide profiling of DNA-binding proteins, histone modifications, and nucleosome occupancy. As the cost of sequencing is decreasing, many researchers are switching from microarray-based technologies (ChIP-chip) to ChIP-Seq for genome-wide study of transcriptional regulation. Despite its increasing and well-deserved popularity, there is little work that investigates and accounts for sources of biases in the ChIP-Seq technology. These biases typically arise from both the standard pre-processing protocol and the underlying DNA sequence of the generated data.

We study data from a naked DNA sequencing experiment, which sequences non-cross-linked DNA after deproteinizing and …

Financial Distress And Idiosyncratic Volatility: An Empirical Investigation, Lorán Chollete, Jing Chen, Rina Ray

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Financial Implications Of Extreme And Rare Events, Lorán Chollete, Dwight Jaffee

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Dependence Of Macro Variables In The Us Economy, Lorán Chollete, Cathy Ning

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Modeling International Financial Returns With A Multivariate Regime-Switching Copula, Lorán Chollete, Andreas Heinen, Alfonso Valdesogo

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Efficient Mean Estimation In Log-Normal Linear Models, Haipeng Shen, Zhengyuan Zhu

Zhengyuan Zhu

Economic Implications Of Copulas And Extremes, Lorán Chollete

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

The Risk Components Of Liquidity, Lorán Chollete, Randi Naes, Johannes Skjeltorp

Lorán Chollete

No abstract provided.

Additive Nonparametric Regression With Autocorrelated Errors, Michael S. Smith, C Wong, Robert Kohn

Michael Stanley Smith

A Bayesian approach is presented for nonparametric estimation of an additive regression model with autocorrelated errors. Each of the potentially nonlinear components is modelled as a regression spline using many knots, while the errors are modelled by a high order stationary autoregressive process parameterised in terms of its autocorrelations. The distribution of significant knots and partial autocorrelations is accounted for using subset selection. Our approach also allows the selection of a suitable transformation of the dependent variable. All aspects of the model are estimated simultaneously using Markov chain Monte Carlo. It is shown empirically that the proposed approach works well …

A Bayesian Approach To Bivariate Nonparametric Regression, Michael Smith, Robert Kohn

Michael Stanley Smith

No abstract provided.