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Articles 1 - 17 of 17
Full-Text Articles in Applied Statistics
On The Evolution Equation For Modelling The Covid-19 Pandemic, Jonathan Blackledge
On The Evolution Equation For Modelling The Covid-19 Pandemic, Jonathan Blackledge
Books/Book chapters
The paper introduces and discusses the evolution equation, and, based exclusively on this equation, considers random walk models for the time series available on the daily confirmed Covid-19 cases for different countries. It is shown that a conventional random walk model is not consistent with the current global pandemic time series data, which exhibits non-ergodic properties. A self-affine random walk field model is investigated, derived from the evolutionary equation for a specified memory function which provides the non-ergodic fields evident in the available Covid-19 data. This is based on using a spectral scaling relationship of the type 1/ωα where ω …
Modelling Interactions Among Offenders: A Latent Space Approach For Interdependent Ego-Networks, Isabella Gollini, Alberto Caimo, Paolo Campana
Modelling Interactions Among Offenders: A Latent Space Approach For Interdependent Ego-Networks, Isabella Gollini, Alberto Caimo, Paolo Campana
Articles
Illegal markets are notoriously difficult to study. Police data offer an increasingly exploited source of evidence. However, their secondary nature poses challenges for researchers. A key issue is that researchers often have to deal with two sets of actors: targeted and non-targeted. This work develops a latent space model for interdependent ego-networks purposely created to deal with the targeted nature of police evidence. By treating targeted offenders as egos and their contacts as alters, the model (a) leverages on the full information available and (b) mirrors the specificity of the data collection strategy. The paper then applies this approach to …
Sustainable Energy Governance In South Tyrol (Italy): A Probabilistic Bipartite Network Model, Jessica Belest, Laura Secco, Elena Pisani, Alberto Caimo
Sustainable Energy Governance In South Tyrol (Italy): A Probabilistic Bipartite Network Model, Jessica Belest, Laura Secco, Elena Pisani, Alberto Caimo
Articles
At the national scale, almost all of the European countries have already achieved energy transition targets, while at the regional and local scales, there is still some potential to further push sustainable energy transitions. Regions and localities have the support of political, social, and economic actors who make decisions for meeting existing social, environmental and economic needs recognising local specificities.
These actors compose the sustainable energy governance that is fundamental to effectively plan and manage energy resources. In collaborative relationships, these actors share, save, and protect several kinds of resources, thereby making energy transitions deeper and more effective.
This research …
Does It Take Three To Dance The Tango? Organizational Design, Triadic Structures And Boundary Spanning Across Subunits, Stefano Tasselli, Alberto Caimo
Does It Take Three To Dance The Tango? Organizational Design, Triadic Structures And Boundary Spanning Across Subunits, Stefano Tasselli, Alberto Caimo
Articles
In this paper, we investigate the processes of boundary spanning across subunits within organizational networks. We hypothesize that patterns of advice across organizational subunits are explained by different triadic mechanisms depending on the organizational design of the intra-organizational network. In organizational networks characterized by flat hierarchy, we found triadic cyclic closure to be positively associated to boundary spanning across subunits; but when the network reflects an organizational structure with formal hierarchical differentiation among members, then we found triadic transitive closure to be associated to boundary spanning across subunits. We test these predictions in two empirical studies consisting of two organizational …
The Dark Sky Character Of Archaeological Landscapes: Cultural Meaning And Conservation Strategies, Frank Prendergast
The Dark Sky Character Of Archaeological Landscapes: Cultural Meaning And Conservation Strategies, Frank Prendergast
Book/Book Chapter
This paper presents the first ever study of light pollution at selected Irish prehistoric archaeological landscapes. The concepts of cosmology and landscape are first briefly described and followed by a summary of early human settlement of the island. Building on this, the extant corpus of early prehistoric megalithic burial tombs is illustrated to show their contrasting distribution patterns and typology. Analysis of tomb locations using nearest-neighbour statistical methods reveals evidence of intentional clustering. Further geo-statistical analysis identifies the geographical locations and the density ranking of these nucleated clusters - a feature especially evident in the passage tomb tradition on this …
A Land Use Regression Model For Explaining Spatial Variation In Air Pollution Levels Using A Wind Sector Based Approach, Owen Naughton, Aoife Donnelly, Paul Nolan, Francesco Pilla, Bruce Misstear, Brian Broderick
A Land Use Regression Model For Explaining Spatial Variation In Air Pollution Levels Using A Wind Sector Based Approach, Owen Naughton, Aoife Donnelly, Paul Nolan, Francesco Pilla, Bruce Misstear, Brian Broderick
Articles
Estimating pollutant concentrations at a local and regional scale is essential for good ambient air quality information in environmental and health policy decision making. Here we present a land use regression (LUR) modelling methodology that exploits the high temporal resolution of fixed-site monitoring (FSM) to produce viable air quality maps. The methodology partitions concentration time series from a national FSM network into wind-dependent sectors or “wedges”. A LUR model is derived using predictor variables calculated within the directional wind sectors, and compared against the long-term average concentrations within each sector. This study demonstrates the value of incorporating the relative position …
An Examination Of The Neural Unreliability Thesis Of Autism, John Butler, Sophie Molholm, Gizely Andrade, John J. Foxe
An Examination Of The Neural Unreliability Thesis Of Autism, John Butler, Sophie Molholm, Gizely Andrade, John J. Foxe
Articles
An emerging neuropathological theory of Autism, referred to here as “the neural unreliability thesis,” proposes greater variability in moment-to-moment cortical representation of environmental events, such that the system shows general instability in its impulse response function. Leading evidence for this thesis derives from functional neuroimaging, a methodology ill-suited for detailed assessment of sensory transmission dynamics occurring at the millisecond scale. Electrophysiological assessments of this thesis, however, are sparse and unconvincing. We conducted detailed examination of visual and somatosensory evoked activity using high-density electrical mapping in individuals with autism (N = 20) and precisely matched neurotypical controls (N = 20), recording …
Analysing Domestic Electricity Smart Metering Data Using Self Organising Maps, Fintan Mcloughlin, Aidan Duffy, Michael Conlon
Analysing Domestic Electricity Smart Metering Data Using Self Organising Maps, Fintan Mcloughlin, Aidan Duffy, Michael Conlon
Conference Papers
This paper investigates a method of classifying domestic electricity load profiles through Self Organising Maps (SOMs). Approximately four thousand customers are divided into groups based on their electricity demand patterns. Dwelling and occupant characteristics are then investigated for each group. The results show that SOMs are an effective way of classifying customers into groups in terms of their electrical load profile and that certain dwelling and occupant characteristics are significant factors in determining which group they end up in.
A Stochastic Model For Wind Turbine Power Quality Using A Levy Index Analysis Of Wind Velocity Data, Jonathan Blackledge, Eugene Coyle, Derek Kearney
A Stochastic Model For Wind Turbine Power Quality Using A Levy Index Analysis Of Wind Velocity Data, Jonathan Blackledge, Eugene Coyle, Derek Kearney
Conference papers
The power quality of a wind turbine is determined by many factors but time-dependent variation in the wind velocity are arguably the most important. After a brief review of the statistics of typical wind speed data, a non- Gaussian model for the wind velocity is introduced that is based on a Levy distribution. It is shown how this distribution can be used to derive a stochastic fractional diusion equation for the wind velocity as a function of time whose solution is characterised by the Levy index. A Levy index numerical analysis is then performed on wind velocity data for both …
Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Stochastic Hybrid Embodied Co2-Eq Analysis: An Application To The Irish Apartment Building Sector, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Articles
Although embodiedCO2-eq analysis has seen recent developments as evident in the establishment of the ISO14040 and 14044 LCA standards, it is recognized that due to weaknesses in gathering data on product-related emissions,embodiedCO2-eq values are probabilistic. This paper presents a stochastic analysis of hybrid embodied CO2-eq in buildings to account for this weakness in traditional methods and, by way of example, applies it to an Irish construction-sector case study. Using seven apartment buildings, 70,000 results are simulated with Monte Carlo analysis and used to derive probabilistic and cumulative embodied CO2-eq intensity distributions for apartment buildings in Ireland. A Wakeby distribution with …
Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Embodied Emissions Abatement: A Policy Assessment Using Stochastic Analysis, Adolf Acquaye, Aidan Duffy, Biswajit Basu
Articles
Policymakers traditionally focus on regulating operational energy use in buildings, ignoring other life cycle components such as embodied energy even though this may account for a significant portion of life cycle emissions. Data relating to embodied energy and emissions in buildings is limited. However, stochastic techniques can be used to estimate the distribution of such emissions from buildings. This helps policymakers identify which instruments are appropriate for achieving emissions reductions. A primary aim of this paper is to demonstrate this approach using a sample of apartment buildings in Ireland. A Monte-Carlo simulation suggests that the average probability distribution of embodied …
Application Of The Fractional Diffusion Equation For Predicting Market Behaviour, Jonathan Blackledge
Application Of The Fractional Diffusion Equation For Predicting Market Behaviour, Jonathan Blackledge
Articles
Most Financial modelling system rely on an underlying hypothesis known as the Eficient Market Hypothesi (EMH) including the famous BlackScholes formula for placing an option. However, the EMH has a fundamental flaw: it is based on the assumption that economic processes are normally distributed and it has long been known that this is not the case. This fundamental assumption leads to a number of shortcomings associated with using the EMH to analyse financial data which includes failure to predict the future volatility of a market share value. This paper introduces a new financial risk assessment model based on Levy statistics …
The Generation Of Domestic Electricity Load Profiles Through Markov Chain Modelling, Aidan Duffy, Fintan Mcloughlin, Michael Conlon
The Generation Of Domestic Electricity Load Profiles Through Markov Chain Modelling, Aidan Duffy, Fintan Mcloughlin, Michael Conlon
Conference Papers
Micro-generation technologies such as photovoltaics and micro-wind power are becoming increasing popular among homeowners, mainly a result of policy support mechanisms helping to improve cost competiveness as compared to traditional fossil fuel generation. National government strategies to reduce electricity demand generated from fossil fuels and to meet European Union 20/20 targets is driving this change. However, the real performance of these technologies in a domestic setting is not often known as high time resolution models for domestic electricity load profiles are not readily available. As a result, projections in terms of reducing electricity demand and financial paybacks for these micro-generation …
Economic Risk Assessment Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Marek Rebow
Economic Risk Assessment Using The Fractal Market Hypothesis, Jonathan Blackledge, Marek Rebow
Conference papers
This paper considers the Fractal Market Hypothesi (FMH) for assessing the risk(s) in developing a financial portfolio based on data that is available through the Internet from an increasing number of sources. Most financial risk management systems are still based on the Efficient Market Hypothesis which often fails due to the inaccuracies of the statistical models that underpin the hypothesis, in particular, that financial data are based on stationary Gaussian processes. The FMH considered in this paper assumes that financial data are non-stationary and statistically self-affine so that a risk analysis can, in principal, be applied at any time scale …
Encryption Using Deterministic Chaos, Jonathan Blackledge, Nikolai Ptitsyn
Encryption Using Deterministic Chaos, Jonathan Blackledge, Nikolai Ptitsyn
Articles
The concepts of randomness, unpredictability, complexity and entropy form the basis of modern cryptography and a cryptosystem can be interpreted as the design of a key-dependent bijective transformation that is unpredictable to an observer for a given computational resource. For any cryptosystem, including a Pseudo-Random Number Generator (PRNG), encryption algorithm or a key exchange scheme, for example, a cryptanalyst has access to the time series of a dynamic system and knows the PRNG function (the algorithm that is assumed to be based on some iterative process) which is taken to be in the public domain by virtue of the Kerchhoff-Shannon …
Multi-Algorithmic Cryptography Using Deterministic Chaos With Applications To Mobile Communications, Jonathan Blackledge
Multi-Algorithmic Cryptography Using Deterministic Chaos With Applications To Mobile Communications, Jonathan Blackledge
Articles
In this extended paper, we present an overview of the principal issues associated with cryptography, providing historically significant examples for illustrative purposes as part of a short tutorial for readers that are not familiar with the subject matter. This is used to introduce the role that nonlinear dynamics and chaos play in the design of encryption engines which utilize different types of Iteration Function Systems (IFS). The design of such encryption engines requires that they conform to the principles associated with diffusion and confusion for generating ciphers that are of a maximum entropy type. For this reason, the role of …
Shadow Casting Phenomena At Newgrange, Frank Prendergast
Shadow Casting Phenomena At Newgrange, Frank Prendergast
Articles
A digital model of the Newgrange passage tomb and surrounding ring of monoliths known as the Great Circle is used to investigate sunrise shadow casting phenomena at the monument. Diurnal variation in shadow directions and lengths are analysed for their potential use in the Bronze Age to indicate the passage of seasonal time. Computer-aided simulations are developed from a photogrammetric survey to accurately show how three of the largest monoliths, located closest to the tomb entrance and archaeologically coded GC1, GC-1 and GC-2, cast their shadows onto the vertical face of the entrance kerbstone, coded K1. The phenomena occur at …