Climate Commons^™

An Ensemble Study Of The Sea Level Rise Impact On Storm Surge And Inundation In The Coastal Bangladesh, Mansur Ali Jisan

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, track of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, that’s …

Emily Steinhilber Column: Virginia's Leadership In Flood Resilience, Emily E. Steinhilber

News Items

No abstract provided.

Sequias En El Sur De La Peninsula De Yucatan: Analisis De La Variabilidad Anual Y Estacional De La Precipitacion (Droughts In The Southern Yucatan Peninsula: Analysis Of The Annual And Seasonal Precipitation Variability), Sofia Mardero, Elsa Nickl, Birgit Schmook, Laura Schneider, John Rogan, Zachary Christman, Deborah Lawrence

Zachary Christman

Paper is in Spanish. English abstract: This study analyzes the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation across the Southern Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, addressing the anomalies and trends of annual and seasonal precipitation as well as the occurrence of meteorological droughts, using rainfall data from nine weather stations during the period 1953-2007. Linear regression in the annual and seasonal rainfall were used to analyze the increase or decrease in precipitation trends over this period. Precipitation anomalies enabled the evaluation of the stability, deficit, or surplus of precipitation for each year or season, and a quintile method was used to …

Flight Of The Freshwater Fish, Michael H. Wilson

Capstones

Michael H. Wilson

Capstone Abstract

December 27, 2016

Flight of the Freshwater Fish

The Hudson River provides for millions of people as a path for commercial and private transportation, a source of food and energy, and perhaps most importantly for many living in the tri-state area as a destination for recreation and relaxation. The most overlooked feature of the river is how the wildlife shows clear signs of a changing climate and rapid environmental response to the impacts of global warming on the river.

Entire populations of fish species in the lower Hudson have been forced to leave the river …

Canada’S Regional Adaptation Collaboratives And Adaptation Platform: The Importance Of Scaling Up And Scaling Down Climate Change Governance Experiments, Adam Wellstead, Michael Howlett, Sreeja Nair, Jeremy Rayner

Department of Social Sciences Publications

Policy experiments have often been touted as valuable mechanisms for ensuring sustainability transitions and climate change adaptation. However problems exist both in the definition of ‘experiments’, and in their design and realization. While valuable, most experiments examined in the literature to date have been small-scale micro-level deployments or evaluations of policy tools in which the most problematic element revolves around their “scaling-up” or diffusion. The literature on the subject has generally neglected the problems and issues related to another class of experiments in which macro or meso-level initiatives are ‘scaled-down’ to the micro-level. This paper examines a recent effort of …

A Comparison Of Global Climate Reanalysis And Climate Of South Greenland And The North Atlantic, Jeff Auger

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Global climate reanalysis models are regularly used in many scientific fields concerning climate and atmospheric observation. This thesis utilizes reanalysis models in two chapters in order to gain insight into North Atlantic climate teleconnections and their relation to precipitation across South Greenland. This first chapter of this thesis compares the four most recent reanalysis models – ECMWF Reanalysis Interim (ERA-I), NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), JMA 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) – and develops from these models a monthly-mean ensemble average of common meteorological variables for the period 1979-2013. Results from …

Simulation Of The Effects Of Photodecay On Long-Term Litter Decay Using Daycent, Maosi Chen, William J. Parton, E. Carol Adair, Shinichi Asao, Melannie D. Hartman, Wei Gao

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Recent studies have found that solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation significantly shifts the mass loss and nitrogen dynamics of plant litter decomposition in semi-arid and arid ecosystems. In this study, we examined the role of photodegradation in litter decomposition by using the DayCent-UV biogeochemical model. DayCent-UV incorporated the following mechanisms related to UV radiation: (1) direct photolysis, (2) facilitation of microbial decomposition via production of labile materials, and (3) microbial inhibition effects. We also allowed maximum photodecay rate of the structural litter pool to vary with litter's initial lignin fraction in the model. We calibrated DayCent-UV with observed ecosystem variables (e.g., …

Reducing Emissions From Agriculture To Meet The 2 °C Target, Eva Wollenberg, Meryl Richards, Pete Smith, Petr Havlík, Michael Obersteiner, Francesco N. Tubiello, Martin Herold, Pierre Gerber, Sarah Carter, Andrew Reisinger, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Amy Dickie, Henry Neufeldt, Björn O. Sander, Reiner Wassmann, Rolf Sommer, James E. Amonette, Alessandra Falcucci, Mario Herrero, Carolyn Opio, Rosa Maria Roman-Cuesta, Elke Stehfest, Henk Westhoek, Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, Tek Sapkota, Mariana C. Rufino, Philip K. Thornton, Louis Verchot, Paul C. West, Jean François Soussana, Tobias Baedeker

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

More than 100 countries pledged to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the 2015 Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Yet technical information about how much mitigation is needed in the sector vs. how much is feasible remains poor. We identify a preliminary global target for reducing emissions from agriculture of ~1 GtCO2e yr−1 by 2030 to limit warming in 2100 to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet plausible agricultural development pathways with mitigation cobenefits deliver only 21–40% of needed mitigation. The target indicates that more transformative technical and policy options will be needed, …

Exploring The Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On North America's Laurentian Great Lakes Tourism Sector, Natalie Chin

Open Access Dissertations

Climate change is one of the major challenges facing the global hospitality and tourism sector in the coming century and, given the important role that weather and climate play in all aspects of the tourism experience, tourism businesses owners need to start thinking about and enacting climate change adaptation strategies now. This work has utilized a combination of social science and physical science methods to (1) understand how the Great Lakes tourism sector could be impacted by climate change and (2) provide some insights into how researchers can help business owners prepare for these potential impacts. Overall, the results of …

An Examination Of Geographic Patterns Of Soil Climate And Its Classification In The U.S. System Of Soil Taxonomy, Hans Edwin Winzeler

Open Access Dissertations

Soil climate, the record of temporal patterns of soil moisture and temperature, is an important component of the structure of U.S. Soil Taxonomy. The U.S. Soil Survey has used the Newhall Simulation Model (NSM) for estimating soil climate from atmospheric climate records at weather stations since the 1970s. The current soil climate map of the U.S. was published in 1994 by using NSM runs from selected weather stations along with knowledge-based hand-drawn mapping procedures. We developed a revised soil climate mapping methodology using the NSM and digital soil mapping techniques.

The new methodology is called Grid Element Newhall Simulation Model …

Umphlett Qci Dec 2016, Natalie A. Umphlett

HPRCC Personnel Publications

Highlights for the Basin

Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Drought Conditions

Large Fires Impact Region

Heavy Rains Bring Flooding to Montana

Isolated Impacts to Agriculture

3-Month Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks

Soil Moisture Conditions

Late Paleo-Indian Period Lithic Economies, Mobility, And Group Organization In Wisconsin, Ethan Adam Epstein

Theses and Dissertations

The following dissertation focuses upon the organization of Pleistocene / Holocene period lithic technology in Wisconsin circa 10,000 – 10,500 years before present. Lithic debitage and flaked stone tools from the Plainview/Agate Basin components of the Heyrman I site (47DR381), the Dalles site (47IA374), and the Kelly North Tract site at Carcajou Point (47JE02) comprise the data set. These Wisconsin sites are located within a post glacial Great Lakes dune environment, an inland drainage/riverine environment, and an inland wetland/lacustrine environment. An assemblage approach is used to examine the structure of each site’s lithic economy. This broad approach to lithic organization …

Analyses Of Streamflow Change Patterns And Correlation Of These Changes With Sea-Surface Temperature Fluctuations, Kazi Ali Tamaddun

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

This thesis presents a comprehensive statistical analysis that determines the direction, rate, and interval of significant streamflow change patterns in the continental U.S. and correlates these changes with sea-surface temperature fluctuations. First, by using two non-parametric tests, namely, the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Pettitt’s test, the presence of long-term trends and abrupt shifts were determined at 10% significance level over continuously adjustable periods that stretched from 1903 to 2012. Modified versions of the tests were applied to account for the presence of persistence (autocorrelation) in data. Theil-Sen slope was determined to evaluate the rate of change across multiple temporal …

Teleconnections In Steam: Antarctic Field-Camp Art, Craig Stevens, Gabby O'Connor

The STEAM Journal

We describe a component of a multi-element STEAM collaboration looking to explore ideas around the life cycle of Antarctic sea ice. One of the intermediate phases of the work involved the scientist deploying partially pre-made art components. Results were modulated by weather and operational constraints and generated a sequence of images and recordings as well as greater understanding of the creative collaboration process.

Unsettled: How Climate Change Challenges A Foundation Of Our Legal System, And Adapting The Legal State, Victor B. Flatt

BYU Law Review

One of the fundamental goals of law is to end disputes. This push to “settlement” is foundational and has historically worked to increase societal efficiency and justice by engendering legitimate expectations among the citizenry. However, the efficient nature of much legal finality, settlement and repose only exists against a background of evolution of the physical environment that is predictable and slowpaced. That background no longer exists. The alteration of the physical world, and thus, the background for our societal structure and decisions, is accelerating rapidly due to human-caused climate change. This creates a mismatch between the law’s tendency to finality …

Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River-Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter

College of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences Faculty Publications

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity …

Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River-Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain's Missisquoi Basin, 2000-2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources Faculty Publications

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher-variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and severity …

Coupled Impacts Of Climate And Land Use Change Across A River–Lake Continuum: Insights From An Integrated Assessment Model Of Lake Champlain’S Missisquoi Basin, 2000–2040, Asim Zia, Arne Bomblies, Andrew W. Schroth, Christopher Koliba, Peter D.F. Isles, Yushiou Tsai, Ibrahim N. Mohammed, Gabriela Bucini, Patrick J. Clemins, Scott Turnbull, Morgan Rodgers, Ahmed Hamed, Brian Beckage, Jonathan Winter, Carol Adair, Gillian L. Galford, Donna Rizzo, Judith Van Houten

Dartmouth Scholarship

Global climate change (GCC) is projected to bring higher-intensity precipitation and higher- variability temperature regimes to the Northeastern United States. The interactive effects of GCC with anthropogenic land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) are unknown for watershed level hydrological dynamics and nutrient fluxes to freshwater lakes. Increased nutrient fluxes can promote harmful algal blooms, also exacerbated by warmer water temperatures due to GCC. To address the complex interactions of climate, land and humans, we developed a cascading integrated assessment model to test the impacts of GCC and LULCC on the hydrological regime, water temperature, water quality, bloom duration and …

Holocene Glacial Activity In Barilari Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula, Tracked By Magnetic Mineral Assemblages: Linking Ice, Ocean, And Atmosphere, Brendan Reilly, Carl Natter, Stefanie A. Brachfeld

Department of Earth and Environmental Studies Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

We investigate the origin and fate of lithogenic sediments using magnetic mineral assemblages in Barilari Bay, west Antarctic Peninsula (AP) from sediment cores recovered during the Larsen Ice Shelf System, Antarctica (LARISSA) NBP10-01 cruise. To quantify and reconstruct Holocene changes in covarying magnetic mineral assemblages, we adopt an unsupervised mathematical unmixing strategy and apply it to measurements of magnetic susceptibility as a function of increasing temperature. Comparisons of the unmixed end-members with magnetic observations of northwestern AP bedrock and the spatial distribution of magnetic mineral assemblages within the fjord, allow us to identify source regions, including signatures for ‘‘inner bay,’’ …

Climate Change Adaptation Case Study: Benefit-Cost Analysis Of Coastal Flooding Hazard Mitigation, Will Cooper, Federico Garcia, Diana Pape, David Ryder, Ben Witherell

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

The damage Hurricane Sandy caused had far-reaching repercussions up and down the East Coast of the United States. Vast coastal flooding accompanied the storm, inundating homes, businesses, and utility and emergency facilities. Since the storm, projects to mitigate similar future floods have been scrutinized. Such projects not only need to keep out floodwaters but also be designed to withstand the effect that climate change might have on rising sea levels and increased flood risk.

In this study, we develop an economic model to assess the costs and benefits of a berm (sea wall) to mitigate the effects of flooding from …

An Early Paleogene Palynological Assemblage From The Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica: New Species And Implications For Depositional History, Catherine Davies Smith

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Palynological analyses of 13 samples from two sediment cores retrieved from the Sabrina Coast, East Antarctica, provide the first information regarding the paleovegetation within the Aurora Subglacial Basin. The assemblages, hereafter referred to as the Sabrina Flora, are dominated by angiosperms, with complexes of Gambierina (G.) rudata and G. edwardsii representing 38–66% of the assemblage and an abundant and diverse Proteaceae component. The Sabrina Flora also includes Battenipollis sectilis, Forcipites sp. and Nothofagidites spp. (mostly belonging to the N. cf. rocaensis-flemingii complex), along with a few fern spores, including Laevigatosporites ovatus, a moderate presence of conifers, and …

Influence Of Topography And Human Activity On Apparent In Situ 10be-Derived Erosion Rates In Yunnan, Sw China, Amanda H. Schmidt, Thomas B. Neilson, Paul R. Bierman, Dylan H. Rood, William B. Ouimet, Veronica Sosa Gonzalez

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

In order to understand better if and where erosion rates calculated using in situ 10Be are affected by contemporary changes in land use and attendant deep regolith erosion, we calculated erosion rates using measurements of in situ 10Be in quartz from 52 samples of river sediment collected from three tributaries of the Mekong River (median basin areaD46.5 km2). Erosion rates range from 12 to 209mm kyr-1 with an area-weighted mean of 117±49mm kyr-1 (1 standard deviation) and median of 74mm kyr-1.We observed a decrease in the relative influence of human activity from our steepest and least altered watershed in the …

Street-Level Inundation Modeling Of Hurricanes Matthew And Hermine And Emerging Flood Monitoring Methods In Hampton Roads, Jon Derek Loftis, H. V. Wang, D R. Forrest

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Influence Of Land Cover Type And The Reliability Of Selected Land Surface Models: A Comparison Of Wrf Version 3.6 Coupled To Clm Version 4.0, Noah-Mp, And The Bucket Hydrology, Andrew J. Kalin

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

In this study, the validity of 3 LSMs (Community Land Model version 4.0, Noah-MP and the Budyko Bucket Hydrology model [henceforth referred to as ‘Bucket model’]) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF3.6), was examined in an effort to show the associated strengths and weaknesses of each LSM. This objective was completed by first, developing expected results based on a simple surface energy budget calculation, and by later comparing model output to Parameter-elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) data, which serve as gridded observed values of mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation. Model output …

A Stochastic Model For Landscape Patterns Of Biodiversity, Jayme A. Prevedello, Nicholas J. Gotelli, Jean Paul Metzger

College of Arts and Sciences Faculty Publications

Many factors have been proposed to affect biodiversity patterns across landscapes, including patch area, patch isolation, edge distances, and matrix quality, but existing models emphasize only one or two of these factors at a time. Here we introduce a synthetic but simple individual-based model that generates realistic patterns of species richness and density as a function of landscape structure. In this model, we simulated the stochastic placement of home ranges in landscapes, thus combining features of existing random placement and mid-domain effect models. As such, the model allows investigation of whether and how geometric constraints on home range placement of …

Version 1.3 Aim Sofie Measured Methane (Ch4): Validation And Seasonal Climatology, P. P. Rong, J. M. Russell Iii, B. T. Marshall, D. E. Siskind, M. E. Hervig, L. L. Gordley, P. F. Bernath, K. A. Walker

Chemistry & Biochemistry Faculty Publications

The V1.3 methane (CH₄) measured by the Aeronomy of Ice in the Mesosphere (AIM) Solar Occultation for Ice Experiment (SOFIE) instrument is validated in the vertical range of ~25–70 km. The random error for SOFIE CH₄ is ~0.1–1% up to ~50 km and degrades to ~9% at ∼ 70 km. The systematic error remains at ~4% throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere. Comparisons with CH₄ data taken by the SCISAT Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS) and the Envisat Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) show an agreement within ~15% in the altitude range ~30–60 …

Climate In The Pilbara, Robert Sudmeyer

Bulletins 4000 -

The Pilbara is characterised by very hot summers, mild winters and low and variable rainfall. It is classified as hot desert in northern and inland areas and hot grasslands in the north-west. The Pilbara claims a number of climate records:

• seven of Western Australia’s top 10 hottest days, with Mardie recording the hottest day on record — 50.5 degrees Celsius (°C)
• most sunshine hours a day in Australia (more than 10 hours a day)
• second highest inter-annual variability in rainfall (second only to central Australia)
• the most cyclone-prone area along the Australian coastline.

During summer and early autumn (December to …

Impact Of Climate Change On Corn Yields In Alabama, Pauline Welikhe, Joseph Essamuah-Quansah, Kenneth Boote, Senthold Asseng, Gamal El Afandi, Souleymane Fall, Desmond Mortley, Ramble Ankumah

Professional Agricultural Workers Journal

Abstract

The study used calibrated Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES) maize (corn) model to simulate maize (corn) physiological growth processes and yields under 2045 and 2075 projected climate change scenarios for six representative counties in Alabama. The future climatologies for two emission scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (medium) and RCP 8.5 (high) were developed based on the IPSL-CM5A-MR high resolution climate model. Average yield decreases of 19.5% and 37.3% were, respectively, projected under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2045, and average yield decreases of 32.5% and 77.8% were, respectively, projected under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for 2075. …

An Assessment Of The Radiative Effects Of Ice Supersaturation Based On In Situ Observations, Xiaoxiao Tan, Yi Huang, Minghui Diao, Aaron Bansemer, Mark Zondlo, Joshua Digangi, Rainer Volkamer, Yongyun Hu

Faculty Publications, Meteorology and Climate Science

We use aircraft observations combined with the reanalysis data to investigate the radiative effects of ice supersaturation (ISS). Our results show that although the excess water vapor over ice saturation itself has relatively small radiative effects, mistaking it as ice crystals in climate models would lead to considerable impacts: on average, +2.49 W/m2 change in the top of the atmosphere (TOA) radiation, −2.7 W/m2 change in surface radiation, and 1.47 K/d change in heating rates. The radiative effects of ISS generally increase with the magnitudes of supersaturation. However, there is a strong dependence on the preexisting ice water path, which …

Managing Drought Risk In A Changing Climate, Donald A. Wilhite

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

There is an increasing concern worldwide regarding the ineffectiveness of current drought management practices that are based largely on crisis management. These practices are reactive and, therefore, only treat the symptoms (impacts) of drought rather than the underlying causes of the vulnerabilities associated with impacts. More effective drought management requires a shift in the paradigm from drought response to a drought risk management approach.