Climate Commons^™

Communicating About Extreme Heat: Results From Card Sorting And Think Aloud Interviews With Experts From Differing Domains, Jeannette Sutton, Nicholas Waugh, Savannah Olivas

Emergency Preparedness, Homeland Security, and Cybersecurity Faculty Scholarship

Climate trends indicate that extreme heat events are becoming more common and more severe over time, requiring improved strategies to communicate heat risk and protective actions. However, there exists a disconnect in heat-related communication from experts, who commonly include heat related jargon (i.e., technical language), to decision makers and the general public. The use of jargon has been shown to reduce meaningful engagement with and understanding of messages written by experts. Translating technical language into comprehensible messages that encourage decision makers to take action has been identified as a priority to enable impact-based decision support. Knowing what concepts and terms …

Spatiotemporal Variability Of Snow Depth On Arctic Sea Ice In Cmip6 Models And Satellite Data, Shengzhe Chen

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The Arctic has experienced rapid environmental changes in recent decades. Motivated by the important role of snow over sea ice in influencing Arctic climate variability and change, this dissertation aims to improve our knowledge of spatiotemporal variability of snow depth and processes over Arctic sea ice in the observations and model simulations.First, we evaluate snow depth over Arctic sea ice during 1993–2014 simulated by the models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) against recent satellite retrievals. The CMIP6 models capture some aspects of the observed snow depth climatology and variability. The observed variability lies in the middle …

The Surface Heating Efficiency Of Atmospheric Energy Flux Events During Arctic Winter, Christopher Joseph Cardinale

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The flux of moist static energy (MSE) into the polar regions plays a key role in the energy budget and climate of the polar regions. While usually studied from a vertically integrated perspective (Fwall), this dissertation examines its vertical structure, using the NASA-MERRA-2 reanalysis to compute climatological and anomalous fluxes of sensible, latent, and potential energy across 70◦N and 65◦S. This dissertation applies an energy budget analysis to winter-season synoptic periods of increased tropospheric (Ftrop) and stratospheric (Fstrat) energy flux convergence events and examines the processes that drive Arctic anoma lous surface warming and sea ice loss during Ftrop events. …

Examining Terrain Effects On Upstate New York Tornado Events Utilizing High-Resolution Model Simulations, Luke Lebel

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

The region at the intersection of the Mohawk and Hudson valleys of New York is characterized by complex terrain. It has been hypothesized that this complex terrain may have an impact on the development and evolution of severe convection in the region. Specifically, previous research has hypothesized that terrain-channeled flow in the Hudson and Mohawk valleys contributed to increased low-level wind shear and instability in the valleys during past severe weather outbreaks. However, a lack of observations in the region prevented this hypothesis from being robustly tested.

The goal of this study is to further examine this hypothesis and complement …

The Rapid Weakening Of Hurricane Fred (2009), Christina Talamo

Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences

This research project discusses the rapid weakening of Hurricane Fred, a major Category 3 hurricane that occurred in the Atlantic basin during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. Between the days of 9 September and 13 September, Fred remained stationary off the coast of Africa in the Atlantic Ocean and never made landfall, all the while consistently weakening over open ocean from a major Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm. In the Atlantic basin, I will define the rapid weakening, or RW, of a tropical cyclone as a decrease in the storm’s maximum sustained winds by 10.3 m s⁻¹ in …

Dynamical Downscaling Of Near-Term Climate Variability And Change For The Main Hawaiian Islands Using Wrf, Katrina Marie Fandrich

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

As climate models continue to improve, the demand from resource managers and decision-makers for more accurate climate projections is increasing. However, natural climate variability poses a limit to the confidence in regional climate change projections, particularly for the mid-21st century. The unique geographic location of the Hawaiian Islands and its regional climate provide a challenging opportunity for climate modelers. The goal of this project is to examine both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and anthropogenic climate change for their impacts on near-term rainfall and temperature projections for the Hawaiian Islands. Of primary interest are the questions 1) is there a …

An Underground World : Creative Writing In The Dystopian Genre, Mary Kathleen Brown

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Despite its importance for the creation of a compelling story, world-building is often overlooked in literary studies due to its complexity, with studies instead favoring analysis of plot, character, or situation. The dystopian genre dictates why world-building is a crucial element for fictional writing because it showcases a manipulated relationship between writer and reader. Using the overlap in possible worlds and actual worlds, this paper explores how world-building incites change in the actual world due to a reader correlating the possible world with their own. By way of example, my paper features the first three chapters of my dystopian novel, …

Arctic Sea Ice Predictability And Prediction, Chao-Yuan Yang

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Arctic sea ice has experienced dramatic changes for the past few decades, which has profound global climatic effects, or feedbacks. The drastic changes and their associated impacts have led to increasing demand for sea ice predictions from a wide scope of stakeholders across seasonal to decadal timescales. Thus, it is important to improve our understanding of sea ice predictability on different timescales and our ability to predict Arctic sea ice.

Stratospheric And Tropospheric Contributions To The Poleward Energy Flux Across 70°N And 65°S In The Merra-2 And Cesm, Christopher Cardinale

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The flux of moist static energy (MSE) across 70°N and 65°S plays a key role in the energy budget and climate of the polar regions. This flux, which provides respectively 98 W m⁻² and 91 W m⁻² heating of the northern and southern polar caps, is usually studied from a vertically integrated perspective. Its vertical structure is examined using the NASA-MERRA-2 reanalysis to compute monthly fluxes of sensible, latent and potential energy across 70°N and 65°S for the period 1980-2016. The flux is bimodal, with peaks in the lower troposphere and in the middle stratosphere, and is near zero at …

Projected Changes In Climate, Elevation-Dependent Warming, And Extreme Events Over Continental Ecuador For The Period 2041-2070, Oscar Chimborazo

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The climate over Ecuador is complex due to several interacting factors, such as its location at the equator, the Andean topography, and several modes of internal variability, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), affecting the region. In addition, the rapid increase in greenhouse gas concentrations will continue to affect both the mean state and climate variability in Ecuador over the coming decades. Hence, a thorough understanding of both natural and anthropogenic forcings and how they combine to influence Ecuadorian climate is a necessity for decision-making and implementation of adequate adaptation measures. However, the lack of observational data, both in space …

Understanding The Relationship Between Winter Hawaii Precipitation And North Pacific Climate Variability For Past And Present Climate Conditions, Siyu Li

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Kona lows (KLs) are a type of seasonal cut-off cyclones in the North Pacific around the Hawaiian Islands during the cold season month (Oct.-Apr.). KLs are important for the annual rainfall budget of the Hawaiian Islands. This study investigates what controls the winter precipitation variability over the Hawaiian Islands in the present-day climate and within a long-term paleoclimate simulation. ERA-interim data from 1979-2014 are used for the present-day analysis of the large-scale circulation. The potential vorticity is used as a measure of extratropical synoptic activity. The Hawaii Rainfall Index is from the Rainfall Atlas of Hawaii (seasonal means, 1920-2012). For …

Keynote Address: Climate Change: From Global To New York Scale, Christopher D. Thorncroft

CHAR

This talk is concerned with the science and impacts of climate change from global to New York scales. It will provide an assessment of how the climate has changed over the past Century based on a purely observational perspective. The scientific basis for anthroprogenic climate change will be explained and discussed including a description of the “greenhouse effect” and why it is important for life on this planet. We will briefly discuss global and local consequences of a warmer climate and what we need to be prepared for going forward in the coming decades.

Kz Spatial Wave Separation With Applications To Atmospheric Data, Ming Luo

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Unlike one-dimensional wave reconstruction, reconstruction 2D spatial wave via Fourier Transform doesn’t look like a non-parametric algorithm. In other words, we need the wave frequency and wave direction information to recover the spatial wave via Fourier Transform, especially when the stress of noise is present. The direct consequence is that accurate estimations of wave parameters are need for reconstructing of spatial waves. To this end, we propose to improve the accuracy of motion image scale detection and parameter estimations with optimization based on Kolmogorov-Zurbenko periodogram (KZP) information. Related methods and algorithms are denoted under the name of Kolmogorov-Zurbenko wave separations. …

Understanding Predictive Skill Of Arctic Sea Ice And Its Linkage With Mid-Latitude Weather And Climate In The Ncep Climate Forecast System, Colleen Mchugh

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Arctic climate is undergoing significant change, particularly rapid decline of sea ice. Arctic sea ice plays an important role in local, regional, and global climate through a variety of physical processes as seen in observational analysis as well as modeling studies. Recent research suggested that decreasing autumn and winter Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) has been shown to have an effect on mid-latitude weather patterns during the winter months. Therefore, accurate forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent and the associated teleconnections with the mid-latitudes are important for accurate seasonal climate prediction. The NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) is …

Climate Change, Spruce Root Phenology, And Allocation Of Carbon Below- And Above-Ground, Marie Louise Orton

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Tree ring analysis has relied on a close relationship between climate and photosynthetically-derived stem enlargement. Lengthening growing seasons associated with climate warming have been predicted to enhance carbon sequestration as wood in trees, but this

State Dependency Of The Forest-Tundra-Short Wave Feedback : Comparing The Mid-Pliocene And Pre-Industrial Eras Using A Newly-Developed Vegetation Model, Pablo Paiewonsky

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The forest-tundra-short wave feedback is the dominant short wave (SW) vegetation feedback at mid-to-high northern latitudes and is an important feedback in Earth’s climate system, especially due to its potential role in modulating glacial cycles. Little research has been done on how the strength of this feedback might vary with the background climate state. It is hypothesized that the feedback has generally strengthened over the last four million years. The feedback mechanism is hypothesized to be weaker under warm Northern Hemispheric conditions when tundra is primarily confined to the high Arctic than under cooler conditions in which the forest-tundra boundary …

Understanding Climatic Adjustments To Variations In Tropical Ocean Heat Transport, Michael Cameron Rencurrel

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

One of the outstanding problems within the climate community has been how to reconcile the geological proxy records of past warm, equable climates, characterized by both an increase in the global mean surface temperature and a decrease in the equator-to-pole temperature gradient, with numerical simulations of the same period. Recent work has shown that tectonic driven changes in the meridional ocean heat transport (OHT) may have played a signicant role in the warming. Here, we study the adjustment of the climate to variations in OHT using a suite of slab-ocean aquaplanet GCM simulations spanning 24 different imposed variations in OHT …

Influence Of Volcanic Eruptions On Tropical Hydroclimate During The Last Millennium, Christopher Colose

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Volcanic eruptions exert the most important radiative forcing on Earth’s climate during the pre-industrial interval of the last millennium. In this thesis, I investigate the role of volcanic eruptions in altering tropical climate, including temperature and rainfall. I primarily use forced transient simulations of the last millennium as a tool to explore how explosive volcanic events project onto the hydrologic cycle, as well as the imprint of water isotopologues (H216O, H218O) associated with rainfall. Attention is given to the South American continent specifically (in chapter 2), and to the entire tropics (in chapter 3).

Understanding The Dependence Of Radiative Feedbacks And Clouds On The Spatial Structure Of Ocean Heat Uptake, Lance Rayborn

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

Ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing are important for understanding transient climate change. Differences in efficacy of ocean heat uptake (suppression of surface warming per unit energy flux into the deep oceans relative to CO2 forcing) account for a substantial fraction of the spread in transient warming between models. Rose et al. (2014) studied the dependence of efficacy on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake in an ensemble of aquaplanet simulations with prescribed ocean heat uptake, and found large differences in model responses to high versus low latitude uptake. This study accurately quantifies these model responses through the use …

Old Tools, New View : Utilizing Species Distribution Models To Focus Conservation Efforts Under A Changing Climate, Samantha Hoff

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In New York State, scientists have observed many changes in bird communities including population declines, range contractions, mismatch between behavior and resources, and changes in bird phenology as a result of climatic changes. Four objectives were addressed with this research: understanding how different bird species may respond to changing climatic conditions under a future IPCC emission scenario; determining how suitable habitat may change in the future and what bioclimatic variables are important to specific avian guilds; identifying hotspots of suitable habitat that may represent important areas for conservation investment; and investigating how managers can incorporate future climate predictions into management …

Assessing The Reproducibility Of Coral Oxygen And Carbon Isotope Time Series From Fiji And Tonga And Their Application To The Reconstruction Of South Pacific Convergence Zone Movements Since The Mid-1800s, Emilie Pauline Dassie

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

A major feature affecting the hydrology of the southern hemisphere is the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ); a band of high rainfall extending southeastward from the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). It is a key source of atmospheric water vapor and latent heating. While it is clear that the SPCZ plays a fundamental role in Earth's climate, little is known about the patterns and mechanisms responsible for interannual to century-scale changes in its position and how it may respond to global climate change.

The Association Of Summer Temperatures With Hospital Admissions For Renal Diseases In New York State : A Case-Crossover Study, Barbara A. Fletcher

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

This study assessed the association between high temperatures and increased odds of hospitalization for renal diseases which, to date, has been examined in only a small number of studies. A case-crossover design was used to study 147,885 hospital admissions with renal diagnoses during July and August, 1991-2004 in New York State. Regional temperature, humidity and barometric pressure data from automated monitors were used as exposure indicators. Using time-stratified referent selection and conditional logistic regression analysis, an overall 9% increase in odds of hospitalization for acute renal failure per 5°F (2.78°C) was found for mean temperature at a one day lag …

Review Of The Simulation Of The Precis Regional Climate Model Over Tropical South America Using Gcm And Reanalysis Lateral Boundary Conditions, Dana Mcglone

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

High-resolution regional climate models (RCM) run over a limited domain are increasingly used to simulate seasonal to interannual climate variability over South America and to assess the spatiotemporal impact of future climate change under a variety of emission scenarios. Global climate models (GCM) are often too coarse to resolve local circulations and the topography of the Andes, leading to problems with simulation of temperature and precipitation patterns throughout the domain. A RCM model can also better represent the climate at a regional scale; however, they are subject to errors introduced by the driving global models. For this study, the Hadley …

Western Equatorial Pacific Climate Variability From Restricted Basins : Century Scale Changes In Kau Bay To Glacial-Interglacial Changes In The Sulu Sea, Samantha Langton

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

The surface ocean in the western equatorial Pacific contains some of the warmest water on the planet in the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP). Changes in the size and scope of the warm pool have a significant impact on global climate. With the concern of changes in the extent of this body of water as a result of anthropomorphic changes in atmospheric composition, it is vital to investigate prior changes to the WPWP, the causes of such changes, and resultant effects. For my dissertation, I used several proxies to analyze sediments from Kau Bay and the Sulu Sea in Indonesia …

Biogeographic Consequences Of Historic And Contemporary Climate Change In Boreal Forest Birds, Joel Ralston

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In this dissertation, I combine ecological niche models (ENMs), which can be extrapolated through time to predict historic and future changes in species distributions, with mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers to study the biogeographic consequences of historic and contemporary climate change on boreal forest birds, and in particular Blackpoll Warbler.

A Spline Kernel Based Smoothing Algorithm : A Comparison Of Methods With A Spatiotemporal Application To Global Climate Fluctuations, Derek Daniel Cyr

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

In statistics, smoothing is a technique that attempts to capture the key patterns or trends in data while leaving out the noise that is obscuring them. Nonparametric techniques are well-suited for smoothing as they do not rely on assumptions that the data arise from a given probability distribution.

Assessing Replicated Coral Trace Element (Sr/Ca And Mg/Ca) Variability And Skeletal Growth Records From The Tropical Pacific, Henry Chun-Yi Wu

Legacy Theses & Dissertations (2009 - 2024)

To gain a more complete history and understanding of the full amplitude of climate variability prior to instrumental records, science must rely on natural proxy archives that are sensitive to fluctuations in key climate parameters. Calcium carbonate skeletons of long-living hermatypic corals in some locations have been shown to be natural archives of surface ocean variability. This study investigated the fidelity and reproducibility of coral derived Sr/Ca time series from Clipperton Atoll, Fiji, and Tonga as accurate proxies of sea surface temperature (SST). The replicated high-resolution Sr/Ca time series record monthly and bimonthly SST changes, though with a greater magnitude …