Climate Commons^™

Changes In Reef Tourism’S Adaptive Capacity After Severe Climate Disturbances, Henry Bartelet, Michele Barnes, Lalu Bakti, Graeme S. Cumming

Quantitative Methods and Information Technology Faculty Publications

Knowledge about adaptive capacity and its determinants has increased significantly over the last decade. However, most research on adaptive capacity has been static, not considering how adaptive capacity might change over time, particularly after severe disturbances. We studied the adaptive capacity dynamics of Asian-Pacific reef tourism operators affected by coral bleaching and tropical cyclones compared with a control group with non-affected operators. We found that impacts from tropical cyclones were associated with frequent changes in adaptive capacity. Notably, we found a reduction in tangible attributes (assets and flexibility) of adaptive capacity, whereas intangible attributes (agency and social organization) increased. Our …

Integrating Climatological-Hydrodynamic Modeling And Paleohurricane Records To Assess Storm Surge Risk, Amirhosein Begmohammadi, Christine Y. Blackshaw, Ning Lin, Avantika Gori, Elizabeth Wallace, Kerry Emanuel, Jeffrey P. Donnelly

OES Faculty Publications

Sediment cores from blue holes have emerged as a promising tool for extending the record of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, interpreting this archive is challenging because storm surge depends on many parameters including TC intensity, track, and size. In this study, we use climatological-hydrodynamic modeling to interpret paleohurricane sediment records between 1851 and 2016 and assess the storm surge risk for Long Island in The Bahamas. As the historical TC data from 1988 to 2016 is too limited to estimate the surge risk for this area, we use historical event attribution in paleorecords paired with synthetic storm modeling …

Nitrogen Fixation At The Mid-Atlantic Bight Shelfbreak And Transport Of Newly Fixed Nitrogen To The Slope Sea, C. R. Selden, M. R. Mulholland, K. E. Crider, S. Clayton, A. Macías-Tapia, P. Bernhardt, D. J. Mcgillicuddy Jr., W. G. Zhang, P. D. Chappell

OES Faculty Publications

Continental shelves contribute a large fraction of the ocean's new nitrogen (N) via N₂ fixation; yet, we know little about how physical processes at the ocean's margins shape diazotroph biogeography and activity. Here, we test the hypothesis that frontal mixing favors N₂ fixation at the Mid-Atlantic Bight shelfbreak. Using the ¹⁵N₂ bubble release method, we measured N₂ fixation rates on repeat cross-frontal transects in July 2019. N₂ fixation rates in shelf waters (median = 5.42 nmol N L⁻¹ d⁻¹) were higher than offshore (2.48 nmol N L⁻¹ d⁻¹) …

On The Links Between Sea Level And Temperature Variations In The Chesapeake Bay And The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), Tal Ezer, Teresa Updyke

CCPO Publications

Recent studies found that on long time scales there are often unexplained opposite trends in sea level variability between the upper and lower Chesapeake Bay (CB). Therefore, daily sea level and temperature records were analyzed in two locations, Norfolk in the southern CB and Baltimore in the northern CB; surface currents from Coastal Ocean Dynamics Application Radar (CODAR) near the mouth of CB were also analyzed to examine connections between the CB and the Atlantic Ocean. The observations in the bay were compared with daily Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) observations during 2005–2021. Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) analysis was used …

Quantifying Tidewater Glacier-Fjord Environments In The Rapidly Changing Regions Of West And South Greenland, Sydney Baratta

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The Greenland Ice Sheet has undergone rapid mass loss over the last four decades, primarily through solid and liquid discharge at marine-terminating outlet glaciers. The acceleration of these glaciers is in part due to the increase in temperature of ocean water in contact with the glacier terminus. However, quantifying meltwater injection and heat transport can be challenging due to iceberg abundance, which threatens instrument survival and fjord accessibility. Additionally, acceleration and eventual retreat of tidewater glaciers onto land can change glacier forcing, completely altering fjord water-meltwater dynamics. Here, we couple in situ and remote sensing methods to quantify the upper-layer …

The Changing Tides Of Action To Address Ocean Acidification In Maine, Ivy L. Frignoca, Heather R. Kenyon

Maine Policy Review

As carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise worldwide, ocean acidification has become a consequence that threatens both human and natural processes. On a global scale, ocean acidification is relatively well understood. However, the complex ecosystem of the nearshore environment presents challenges for monitoring and addressing ocean acidification. In a state such as Maine, whose communities heavily depend on the health of the coastal environment, understanding this threat becomes critically important.

In 2014, Maine’s legislature established a six month study commission to investigate this problem and produce recommendations. The commission proposed a coast-wide monitoring network that could identify and use a …

State Of The Fisheries: Status Reports And Aquatic Resources Of Western Australia 2022/23, S.J. Newman, K.G. Santoro, D.J. Gaughan

Status reports of the fisheries and aquatic resources

Aquatic resources within Western Australia (WA) are in good condition, and this has positioned WA as a global leader in sustainable fisheries management. The sustainable fisheries of WA continue to support our strong economy and regional communities. Nonetheless, the lack of a consistent approach to build in the knowledge of Traditional Owners remains a gap in our longer term fisheries science in Western Australia.

Climate change and climate variability continues to impact fish stocks, challenging our ability to effectively monitor, assess, and manage fish stocks. We are continually working with our stakeholders, and the broader community to be adaptive, responsive, …

The Tidal Prism, Viable Eelgrass Habitat, And The Effects Of Sea Level Rise In Morro Bay, Kaden A. Caliendo

Master's Theses

The tidal prism, or the volume of water exchanged from the sea to an estuary from mean low to mean high tide, influences system hydrodynamics and ecological functioning. Since 1884, the tidal prism in Morro Bay, California has been estimated to be decreasing over time due to sedimentation from upstream practices. What is the current tidal prism in Morro Bay and how will that change with sea level rise? How will eelgrass respond to rising sea levels?

For this study, inexpensive tidal gauges were deployed at four locations in Morro Bay from March to August 2023 to measure spatially varying …

Reducing Uncertainty In Sea-Level Rise Prediction: A Spatial-Variability-Aware Approach, Subhankar Ghosh, Shuai An, Arun Sharma, Jayant Gupta, Shashi Shekhar, Aneesh Subramanian

I-GUIDE Forum

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal communities and beyond due to climate change's impacts on polar ice sheets and the ocean. This problem is challenging due to spatial variability and unknowns such as possible tipping points (e.g., collapse of Greenland or West Antarctic ice-shelf), climate feedback loops (e.g., clouds, permafrost thawing), future policy decisions, and human actions. Most existing climate modeling approaches use the same set of weights globally, during either regression or …

Extent Of The 2023 Coral Bleaching Event In The Nargana Region Of Guna Yala, Panama, Brydon Deanna Hollander

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Coral reefs are diverse marine ecosystems that exist in tropical ecosystems all over the world. They provide a myriad of ecological services that are vital for marine organism biodiversity and human coastal communities. A major threat to coral reefs is a rise in sea surface temperature that causes coral bleaching. The effect of a coral bleaching event in Nargana, Guna Yala will be investigated to examine how the health status of coral reef ecosystems are being impacted. To guide these efforts, the extent of coral bleaching will be measured along with whether sea surface temperature (SST), human concentration, and El …

On The Rocks, Below The Rocks: A Study Of Intertidal Life In The Low, Middle And High Zones Of The Puerto Cabuyal – Punta San Clemente Marine Reserve During An El Niño Event, Juliana M. Ferrer

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

The rocky intertidal zone is one of the most difficult environments for organisms to survive in due to its harsh biotic and abiotic conditions. As such, it is also one of the best indicators of climate change and an important barrier to beach erosion. This study looked at the rocky intertidal zone of the Puerto Cabuyal-Punta San Clemente Marine Reserve in the Manabí province of Ecuador, with a focus on observing and identifying the organisms found in the area. Data was collected along 30 m transects at varying elevations along the shore using quadrants of two sizes: 50x50 cm for …

The Upper Ocean At The End Of An Ice Age: Using Proxies In Benthic Foraminifera To Investigate Intermediate Water Changes During The Last Glacial Termination, Cassandre R. Stirpe

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The ocean is an important component of the global climate system and plays a key role as a storage reservoir for heat and carbon. Under glacial conditions, the ocean sequestered carbon from the atmosphere, contributing to a cooler global climate. During the last glacial termination, that carbon was released back into the atmosphere, but the exact timing and mechanisms of this transfer are still not fully understood. This study examines waters from the intermediate depths of the Southern Ocean to gain insight into deglacial processes. Intermediate waters are capable of reacting to climate change on decadal timescales, making them a …

Benthic Foraminifera As Tools Of Paleoceanography: Three Case Studies From The Late Cretaceous Of The North Pacific Ocean And Western Interior Seaway, And The Miocene-Pleistocene Of The Ross Sea, Antarctica, Serena N. Dameron

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation is a widespread compilation of research covering vastly different times and locations. Despite these differences, the use of foraminifera helps to unravel their geologic history, revealing the paleoenvironmental, paleoclimatic, and paleoceanographic conditions of each location. What unites each study is how water mass, food supply and oxygen concentration play a critical role on the microfossil assemblage. This dissertation is broken up into three unique chapters. Chapter 1 reexamines some old ideas of how benthic foraminifera can be used as water mass indicators. A 13-myr record from Shatsky Rise in the paleo-central Pacific Ocean contains several instances water mass …

History Of Ice-Rafting In The Arctic Ocean During Glacial Maxima Through Marine Isotope Stage 6, Shannon M. Cofield

OES Theses and Dissertations

Numerous studies attempted to reconstruct Arctic paleoclimate, specifically ice mass timing and locations, during glacial maxima. While some regions, like the Barents-Svalbard Ice Sheet (BSIS) are well-studied, they may benefit from a high-resolution paleo proxy. Other regions are highly contested, such as the East Siberian Sea or the presence of a central Arctic Ocean ice mass.

This research uses an Fe-grain provenance method to (1) define how the BSIS behaved during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 2, 4, and 6, and when it retreated; (2) determine the presence and ages of Shelf Ice Masses (SIMs) in the Beaufort Sea and East …

State Of The Fisheries: Status Reports And Aquatic Resources Of Western Australia 2021/22, Department Of Primary Industries And Regional Development, Western Australia, S J. Newman, B S. Wise, K G. Santaro, D J. Gaughan

Status reports of the fisheries and aquatic resources

Aquatic resources within Western Australia (WA) are in good condition, and this has positioned WA as a global leader in sustainable fisheries management. The sustainable fisheries of WA continue to support our strong economy and regional communities. Nonetheless, the lack of a consistent approach to build in the knowledge of Traditional Owners remains a gap in our longer-term fisheries science in Western Australia.

Climate change and climate variability continues to impact fish stocks, challenging our ability to effectively monitor, assess, and manage fish stocks. We are continually working with our stakeholders, and the broader community to be adaptive, responsive, and …

Dynamic And Thermodynamic Influences On Precipitation In Northeast Mexico On Orbital To Millennial Timescales, Kevin T. Wright, Kathleen R. Johnson, Gabriela Serrato Marks, David Mcgee, Tripti Bhattacharya, Gregory R. Goldsmith, Clay R. Tabor, Jean-Louis Lacaille-Muzquiz, Gianna Lum, Laura Beramendi-Orosco

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

The timing and mechanisms of past hydroclimate change in northeast Mexico are poorly constrained, limiting our ability to evaluate climate model performance. To address this, we present a multiproxy speleothem record of past hydroclimate variability spanning 62.5 to 5.1 ka from Tamaulipas, Mexico. Here we show a strong influence of Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures on orbital and millennial scale precipitation changes in the region. Multiple proxies show no clear response to insolation forcing, but strong evidence for dry conditions during Heinrich Stadials. While these trends are consistent with other records from across Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, the relative …

An Analysis Of Hurricane Laura's Storm Surge In Cameron Parish Using Synthetic Storm Tracks, Climatology, And Statistics, Cameron Goff

LSU Master's Theses

Cameron Parish is a large coastal parish in southwest Louisiana that has been impacted by several powerful tropical cyclones. In 2020, the strongest hurricane in recorded history to ever hit this region, Hurricane Laura, set a state record for the highest storm surge measurement at 6.34 meters. I examine the climatology of tropical cyclone landfalls in this parish, looking for trends in intensity and frequency with time. I then compare the extreme surge of Hurricane Laura with a dataset of 645 synthetic tropical cyclones generated and used by the Coastal Hazards System for Louisiana. Plots comparing various meteorological statistics to …

The Response Of Sea Ice And High-Salinity Shelf Water In The Ross Ice Shelf Polynya To Cyclonic Atmosphere Circulations, Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, Meng Zhou

CCPO Publications

Coastal polynyas in the Ross Sea are important source regions of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW) – the precursor of Antarctic Bottom Water that supplies the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation. Here, the response of sea ice production and HSSW formation to synoptic-scale and mesoscale cyclones was investigated for the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya (RISP) using a coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model targeted on the Ross Sea. When synoptic-scale cyclones prevailed over RISP, sea ice production (SIP) increased rapidly by 20 %–30 % over the entire RISP. During the passage of mesoscale cyclones, SIP increased by about 2 times over …

Comments On "Reconsidering The Relationship Between Gulf Stream Transport And Dynamic Sea Level At U.S. East Coast" By Chi Et Al., Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Numerous recent studies found significant correlations between weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) and rising coastal sea level (CSL) along the U.S. East Coast. Based on monthly altimeter data and Florida Current transport, Chi et al. (2023; here, CH23) argued that geostrophic adjustment of the GS is unlikely to drive variations in CSL in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). It is argued here that this conclusion cannot be universally applicable to all cases, since the monthly data disregard correlations previously found for short time scales based on hourly and daily data; the impact of GS variability on time scales of decades …

Interactive Effects Of Climate Change-Induced Range Shifts And Wind Energy Development On Future Economic Conditions Of The Atlantic Surfclam Fishery, Stephanie Stromp, Andrew M. Scheld, John M. Klinck, Daphne M. Munroe, Eric N. Powell, Roger Mann, Sarah Borsetti, Eileen E. Hofmann

CCPO Publications

Rising water temperatures along the northeastern U.S. continental shelf have resulted in an offshore range shift of the Atlantic surfclam Spisula solidissima to waters still occupied by ocean quahogs Arctica islandica. Fishers presently are prohibited from landing both Atlantic surfclams and ocean quahogs in the same catch, thus limiting fishing to locations where the target species can be sorted on deck. Wind energy development on and around the fishing grounds will further restrict the fishery. A spatially explicit model of the Atlantic surfclam fishery (Spatially Explicit Fishery Economics Simulator) has the ability to simulate the consequences of fishery displacement …

An Analysis Of Tidal Mixing Front Dynamics And Frontal Biophysical Interaction In The Harpswell Sound Shelf Sea, Lemona Yingzhuo Niu

Honors Projects

Tidal Mixing Fronts (TMFs) are prominent hydrographic features of tidally energetic shallow shelf seas, representing the transition from mixed to stratified waters. These frontal boundaries often host enhanced phytoplankton primary productivity, as complete vertical mixing exhumes nutrients from depth to the light-lit surface. Existing observational programs for locating TMFs include infra-red satellite imagery of sea surface temperature (SST) and vertical profiling of temperature and density. However, challenges in observationally distinguishing mixed from mixing using only conservatively mixed hydrographic properties persist. A novel approach based on phytoplankton in-situ oxygen production response to light is proposed in this paper to distinguish stable …

Advancing Estuarine Shoreline Change Analysis Using Small Uncrewed Autonomous Systems, Thomas R. Allen, Devon Eulie, Mariko Polk, George Mcleod, Robert Stuart, Alexandra Garnand, A. J. Manning (Editor)

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Estuarine shorelines face the threats of accelerating sea-level rise, recurrent storms, and disruptions of natural sediment and ecological adjustments owing to historic human interventions. The growing availability and technical capability of uncrewed systems (UxS), including remote or autonomous aerial and surface vessels, provide new opportunities to study and understand estuarine shoreline changes. This chapter assesses the state of the technology, interdisciplinary science and engineering literature, and presents case studies from the Chesapeake Bay, Virginia, and coastal North Carolina, USA, that demonstrate new insights into coastal geomorphic processes and applications to managing complex and dynamic estuarine shorelines. These technologies enhance the …

An Update On The Influence Of Natural Climate Variability And Anthropogenic Climate Change On Tropical Cyclones, Suzana J. Camargo, Hiroyuki Murakami, Nadia Bloemendaal, Savin S. Chand, Medha S. Deshpande, Christian Dominguez-Sarmiento, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, Thomas R. Knutson, I. I. Lin, Il- Ju Moon, Christina M. Patricola, Kevin A. Reed, Malcolm J. Roberts, Enrico Scoccimarro, Chi Yung Tam, Elizabeth J. Wallace, Liguang Wu, Yohei Yamada, Wei Zhang, Haikun Zhao

OES Faculty Publications

A substantial number of studies have been published since the Ninth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in 2018, improving our understanding of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones (TCs) and associated hazards and risks. These studies have reinforced the robustness of increases in TC intensity and associated TC hazards and risks due to anthropogenic climate change. New modeling and observational studies suggested the potential influence of anthropogenic climate forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols, on global and regional TC activity at the decadal and century time scales. However, there are still substantial uncertainties owing to model uncertainty …

Global Oceanic Diazotroph Database Version 2 And Elevated Estimate Of Global N2 Fixation, Zhibo Shao, Yangchun Xu, Hua Wang, Weicheng Luo, Lice Wang, Yuhong Huang, Nona Sheila R. Agawin, Ayaz Ahmed, Mar Benavides, Mikkel Bentzon-Tilia, Ilana Berman-Frank, Hugo Berthelot, Isabelle C. Biegala, Mariana B. Bif, Antonio Bode, Sophie Bonnet, Deborah A. Bronk, Mark V. Brown, Lisa Campbell, Ya-Wei Luo

OES Faculty Publications

Marine diazotrophs convert dinitrogen (N₂) gas into bioavailable nitrogen (N), supporting life in the global ocean. In 2012, the first version of the global oceanic diazotroph database (version 1) was published. Here, we present an updated version of the database (version 2), significantly increasing the number of in situ diazotrophic measurements from 13 565 to 55 286. Data points for N₂ fixation rates, diazotrophic cell abundance, and nifH gene copy abundance have increased by 184 %, 86 %, and 809 %, respectively. Version 2 includes two new data sheets for the nifH gene copy abundance of non-cyanobacterial …

Atmospheric Input And Seasonal Inventory Of Dissolved Iron In The Sargasso Sea: Implications For Iron Dynamics In Surface Waters Of The Subtropical Ocean, Peter N. Sedwick, Bettina M. Sohst, K. N. Buck, S. Caprara, R. J. Johnson, D. C. Ohnemus, L. E. Sofen, A. Tagliabue, B. S. Twining, Tara E. Williams

OES Faculty Publications

Constraining the role of dust deposition in regulating the concentration of the essential micronutrient iron in surface ocean waters requires knowledge of the flux of seawater-soluble iron in aerosols and the replacement time of dissolved iron (DFe) in the euphotic zone. Here we estimate these quantities using seasonally resolved DFe data from the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study region and weekly-scale measurements of iron in aerosols and rain from Bermuda during 2019. In response to seasonal changes in vertical mixing, primary production and dust deposition, surface DFe concentrations vary from ∼0.2 nM in early spring to >1 nM in late summer, …

Sediment Delivery To Sustain The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change And Anthropogenic Impacts, Jessica L. Raff, Steven L. Goodbred Jr., Jennifer L. Pickering, Ryan S. Sincavage, John C. Ayers, Md. Saddam Hossain, Carol A. Wilson, Chris Paola, Michael S. Steckler, Dhiman R. Mondal, Jean-Louis Grimaud, Celine Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Humayun Akhter, Brandee N. Carlson, Elizabeth L. Chamberlain, Meagan Dejter, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Richard P. Hale, Mahfuzur R. Khan, Md. Golam Muktadir, Md. Munsur Rahman, Lauren A. Williams

OES Faculty Publications

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to …

Five Years Measuring The Muck: Evaluating Interannual Variability Of Nutrient Loads From Tidal Flooding, Alfonso Macías-Tapia, Margaret R. Mulholland, Corday R. Selden, J. Derek Loftis, Peter W. Bernhardt

OES Faculty Publications

Due to sea level rise, tidal flooding is now common in low-lying coastal systems around the world. Yet, the contribution of tidal flooding to non-point source nutrient loads and their impact on the quality of adjacent waters remains poorly constrained. Here, we quantified dissolved nutrient loading and Enterococcus abundance during annual autumnal king tides (i.e., perigean spring tides), between 2017 and 2021, in a sub-watershed of the lower Chesapeake Bay. To calculate nutrient loading from tidal flooding, we used geospatial inundation depths from a street-level hydrodynamic model to estimate floodwater volumes during each of the five sampling events and the …

Acceleration Of U.S. Southeast And Gulf Coast Sea-Level Rise Amplified By Internal Climate Variability, Sönke Dangendorf, Noah Hendricks, Qiang Sun, John Klinck, Tal Ezer, Thomas Frederikse, Francisco M. Calafat, Thomas Wahl, Torbjörn E. Törnqvist

CCPO Publications

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr⁻¹ since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the …

Sea Level Rising And Its Impact On Nyc, Angela Knafo, Jeff Mao, Andray Whyte, Filip Valencin, Erick Humala, Jubran Alawdi, Jonathan Carangui

Publications and Research

Climate change is not only about the rising temperatures, which is usually the most discussed topic in news, but it also involves other Earth sciences like hydrology, oceanography and other parts of meteorology In our poster we are focusing on sea level rising and its impact on NYC, and how people could mitigate and adapt to it

Estimation Of Economic Risk From Coastal Natural Hazards In Louisiana, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

Louisiana, U.S.A., is among the most vulnerable areas globally to coastal natural hazards, with risk vulnerability likely increasing. The risks associated with non-tropical-cyclone hazards in Louisiana’s coastal zone have been understudied. This research enhances present and future (i.e., 2050) Louisiana risk assessment using locally-weighted, model-based hazard frequency/intensity and population projections.

Results suggest that property risks associated with extreme cold temperature and tornado are and will remain costlier than those for hail and lightning. Property risks of extreme cold temperature and hail are projected to decrease with the expected warming temperatures, with those of all four of these hazards peaking in …