Climate Commons^™

Hydrologic Impact Index For The Pinhoti Hiking Trail, Allie Field

Theses

This study aimed to identify flood-prone areas along the Pinhoti Trail and Chinnabee Silent Trail in the Talladega National Forest. Using the Hydrology Flood Index layer that was created using several essential data layers, the research aimed to provide campers, hikers, nature enthusiasts, and trail maintenance teams with information about areas at a higher risk of flash flooding. The Hydrology Flood Index layer rates the risk of flooding on a scale of 1 to 4, with level 1 indicating a low risk of flooding and level 4 indicating an extremely high risk. The data layers for analyzing flood hazards for …

Determining The 2022-2023 Mass Balance Of The Palisade Glacier In The Sierra Nevada Mountains Of California With Remote Sensing, Density Modeling, And Temperature-Index Techniques, Vijay Jain, Eric Grosfils, Sarah Kavassalis

CMC Senior Theses

Small, alpine glaciers, such as those in the Sierra Nevada, are difficult to study because of their small size and remoteness, however, they are important recorders of the impacts of climate change in temperate, alpine environments. Previous studies have attempted to characterize the health of these glaciers using extent change techniques, but these methodologies can only roughly approximate the rudimentary measurement of changing ice volume. This thesis uses the Airborne Snow Observatory Inc.’s (ASO’s) aerial lidar snow depth datasets to perform a mass balance calculation for the Palisade Glacier over the remarkable 2022-2023 water year (October 1 through September 30), …

The Tidal Prism, Viable Eelgrass Habitat, And The Effects Of Sea Level Rise In Morro Bay, Kaden A. Caliendo

Master's Theses

The tidal prism, or the volume of water exchanged from the sea to an estuary from mean low to mean high tide, influences system hydrodynamics and ecological functioning. Since 1884, the tidal prism in Morro Bay, California has been estimated to be decreasing over time due to sedimentation from upstream practices. What is the current tidal prism in Morro Bay and how will that change with sea level rise? How will eelgrass respond to rising sea levels?

For this study, inexpensive tidal gauges were deployed at four locations in Morro Bay from March to August 2023 to measure spatially varying …

Reducing Uncertainty In Sea-Level Rise Prediction: A Spatial-Variability-Aware Approach, Subhankar Ghosh, Shuai An, Arun Sharma, Jayant Gupta, Shashi Shekhar, Aneesh Subramanian

I-GUIDE Forum

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal communities and beyond due to climate change's impacts on polar ice sheets and the ocean. This problem is challenging due to spatial variability and unknowns such as possible tipping points (e.g., collapse of Greenland or West Antarctic ice-shelf), climate feedback loops (e.g., clouds, permafrost thawing), future policy decisions, and human actions. Most existing climate modeling approaches use the same set of weights globally, during either regression or …

Causes And Effects Of Shisper Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Event In Karakoram In 2022, Sandeep Kumar Mondal, Vatsal D. Patel, Rishikesh Bharti, Ramesh P. Singh

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Karakoram Himalayas are vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which cause catastrophic floods in the surrounding areas. The increasing natural and anthropogenic activities, especially in the Indo-Gangetic Plains at the southern flank of the towering Himalayas, could be the cause of climate change affecting the frequency of the natural hazards in the Himalayas. In the present study, a detailed analysis of the Shisper Lake breach of 7 May 2022 is carried out using satellite remote sensing. A decreasing trend in the glacial mass balance is observed between 2017 and 2021; in this period, frequent GLOF episodes occurred. A pronounced …

How Is Flash Drought Understood?—Experts’ Definitions And Decision-Makers’ Perceptions, Caily Schwartz, Tonya Haigh, Mark D. Svoboda, Madeline Goebel

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Because flash drought is a relatively new phenomenon in drought research, defining the concept is critical for scientists and decision-makers. Having detrimental impacts on many sectors, it is important to have a consistent definition and understanding of flash drought, between experts and stakeholders, to provide early warning to the community. This study focuses on onset and progression of conditions and demonstrates the difference in flash drought identification for 15 events across six quantitative definitions of flash drought that use the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM). Five flash drought events have been studied in the literature while 10 additional events have been …

The Patchwork Governance Of Ecologically Available Water: A Case Study In The Upper Missouri Headwaters, Montana, United States, Amanda E. Cravens, Julia B. Goolsby, Theresa Jedd, Deborah J. Bathke, Shelley Crausbay, Ashley E. Cooper, Jason Dunham, Tonya Haigh, Kimberly R. Hall, Michael J. Hayes, Jamie Mcevoy, Rebecca L. Nelson, Markéta Poděbradská, Aaron Ramirez, Elliot Wickham, Dionne Zoanni

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Institutional authority and responsibility for allocating water to ecosystems (“ecologically available water” [EAW]) is spread across local, state, and federal agencies, which operate under a range of statutes, mandates, and planning processes. We use a case study of the Upper Missouri Headwaters Basin in southwestern Montana, United States, to illustrate this fragmented institutional landscape. Our goals are to (a) describe the patchwork of agencies and institutional actors whose intersecting authorities and actions influence the EAW in the study basin; (b) describe the range of governance mechanisms these agencies use, including laws, policies, administrative programs, and planning processes; and (c) assess …

Impact Of Land Use/Cover Change And Slope Gradient On Soil Organic Carbon Stock In Anjeni Watershed, Northwest Ethiopia, Bethel Geremew, Tsegaye Tadesse, Bobe Bedadi, Hero T. Gollany, Kindie Tesfaye, Abebe Aschalew

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Today’s agri-food systems face the triple challenge of addressing food security, adapting to climate change, and reducing the climate footprint by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). In agri-food systems, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) could affect soil physicochemical properties, particularly soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. However, the impact varies depending on the physical, social, and economic conditions of a given region or watershed. Given this, a study was conducted to quantify the impact of LULC and slope gradient on SOC stock and C sequestration rate in the Anjeni watershed, which is a highly populated and …

The Last Drought Frontier: Building A Drought Index For The State Of Alaska, Olivia Campbell

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Drought is characterized by periods of below average precipitation. There are five major types of drought recognized in the literature: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, socioeconomic, and ecological. A relatively new concept in the drought literature is “snow drought.” A key part of the definition of drought is that it is not always accompanied by extreme heat. This means drought can occur even in cold climates, cold seasons, and higher latitudes and altitudes, like Alaska. Drought is a natural part of climate variability, but Alaska’s climate is changing faster than any other state in the United States. Alaska is no stranger to …

Dynamic And Thermodynamic Influences On Precipitation In Northeast Mexico On Orbital To Millennial Timescales, Kevin T. Wright, Kathleen R. Johnson, Gabriela Serrato Marks, David Mcgee, Tripti Bhattacharya, Gregory R. Goldsmith, Clay R. Tabor, Jean-Louis Lacaille-Muzquiz, Gianna Lum, Laura Beramendi-Orosco

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

The timing and mechanisms of past hydroclimate change in northeast Mexico are poorly constrained, limiting our ability to evaluate climate model performance. To address this, we present a multiproxy speleothem record of past hydroclimate variability spanning 62.5 to 5.1 ka from Tamaulipas, Mexico. Here we show a strong influence of Atlantic and Pacific sea surface temperatures on orbital and millennial scale precipitation changes in the region. Multiple proxies show no clear response to insolation forcing, but strong evidence for dry conditions during Heinrich Stadials. While these trends are consistent with other records from across Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, the relative …

The Response Of Sea Ice And High-Salinity Shelf Water In The Ross Ice Shelf Polynya To Cyclonic Atmosphere Circulations, Xiaoqiao Wang, Zhaoru Zhang, Michael S. Dinniman, Petteri Uotila, Xichen Li, Meng Zhou

CCPO Publications

Coastal polynyas in the Ross Sea are important source regions of high-salinity shelf water (HSSW) – the precursor of Antarctic Bottom Water that supplies the lower limb of the thermohaline circulation. Here, the response of sea ice production and HSSW formation to synoptic-scale and mesoscale cyclones was investigated for the Ross Ice Shelf Polynya (RISP) using a coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf model targeted on the Ross Sea. When synoptic-scale cyclones prevailed over RISP, sea ice production (SIP) increased rapidly by 20 %–30 % over the entire RISP. During the passage of mesoscale cyclones, SIP increased by about 2 times over …

Comments On "Reconsidering The Relationship Between Gulf Stream Transport And Dynamic Sea Level At U.S. East Coast" By Chi Et Al., Tal Ezer

CCPO Publications

Numerous recent studies found significant correlations between weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS) and rising coastal sea level (CSL) along the U.S. East Coast. Based on monthly altimeter data and Florida Current transport, Chi et al. (2023; here, CH23) argued that geostrophic adjustment of the GS is unlikely to drive variations in CSL in the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB). It is argued here that this conclusion cannot be universally applicable to all cases, since the monthly data disregard correlations previously found for short time scales based on hourly and daily data; the impact of GS variability on time scales of decades …

Precipitation Recorded In The Turkana Basin From 2005 To 2022., Acacia Leakey, Greg Henkes, Mae Saslaw, Dino Martins

Geosciences Research Data

This is a dataset of precipitation recorded at three sites in northern Kenya near Lake Turkana using standard rain gauges. The data was recorded at the Koobi Fora Research Station (3.947736, 36.186166) from March 2003 until 2006, at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Ileret facility (4.28510, 36.262158) from 2006 to 2022 and at the Turkana Basin Institute’s Turkwel facility (3.140825, 35.864599) from 2012 to 2022. The data was collected manually by TBI staff observing gradation lines on the collectors following rainfall events and recorded as a single total for each 24 hour period.

Sediment Delivery To Sustain The Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change And Anthropogenic Impacts, Jessica L. Raff, Steven L. Goodbred Jr., Jennifer L. Pickering, Ryan S. Sincavage, John C. Ayers, Md. Saddam Hossain, Carol A. Wilson, Chris Paola, Michael S. Steckler, Dhiman R. Mondal, Jean-Louis Grimaud, Celine Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Jo Grall, Kimberly G. Rogers, Kazi Matin Ahmed, Syed Humayun Akhter, Brandee N. Carlson, Elizabeth L. Chamberlain, Meagan Dejter, Jonathan M. Gilligan, Richard P. Hale, Mahfuzur R. Khan, Md. Golam Muktadir, Md. Munsur Rahman, Lauren A. Williams

OES Faculty Publications

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to …

Spatial And Temporal Characteristics Of Historical Surface Climate Over The Northwest Territories, Canada, Bhaleka D. Persaud

Theses and Dissertations (Comprehensive)

Climate change is putting many of the Northwest Territories (NWT) ecosystems, its people and animal populations at risk due to accelerated warming, permafrost thaw, and changing precipitation regimes. As the NWT continues to warm, at disproportionately higher rates when compared to the rest of Canada, threats to the stability of NWT’s ecosystems are expected to increase. Consequently, understanding how climate warming has changed historically and its implications on natural ecosystems requires point-to-region-specific, long-term climatic data to elucidate important drivers of observed changes relevant to decision makers at community, Indigenous, Territorial and Federal government levels. However, in situ climate data are …

Quantifying The Carbon Stored And Sequestered By The Trees On Pomona College’S Campus, Paola A. Giron-Carson

Scripps Senior Theses

We are experiencing a climate crisis that must be confronted with strategic mitigation. Pomona College contributes to the climate crisis through its emissions for which there is a baseline record. However there is no baseline record of the climate mitigation currently performed by the trees on Pomona’s campus through carbon storage. This study seeks to determine a current baseline quantity of carbon stored and sequestrated by Pomona’s trees as well as possible courses of climate mitigation for Pomona College to take. Initial information gathering was conducted through interviews with several stakeholders. This study was conducted using data collected prior to …

A Workshop On Using Nasa Airs Data To Monitor Drought For The U.S. Drought Monitor, Alireza Farahmand,, Sharon Ray, Heidar Thrastarson, Stephen Licata, Stephanie Granger, Brian Fuchs

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Recent studies indicate that drought indicators based on near-surface air relative humidity (RH), air temperature (T), and air vapor pressure deficit (VPD), derived from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite can detect the onset of drought earlier than other drought indicators, specifically standardized precipitation index (SPI), which is widely used for drought onset detection. A recent study showed that standardized relative humidity index (SRHI) can detect drought signals earlier than SPI (Farahmand et al. 2015). Relative humidity is a climate variable defined as the ratio of air vapor pressure to saturated vapor pressure. Precipitation and relative …

Trust And Subjective Knowledge Influence Perceived Risk Of Lead Exposure, Madeline Goebel, Chloe B. Wardropper

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Lead exposure is a persistent environmental hazard that poses risks to human health. But motivating protective action is challenging with this low visibility hazard whose health effects are often subtle and chronic. Higher risk perception is generally associated with taking protective measures, so public health efforts prioritize risk messaging. Yet, little is known about perceptions of lead exposure risk among the U.S. public. Using cross-sectional data from a national survey of 1035 U.S. residents, we measured the role of trust in government management of lead and subjective knowledge about lead as predictors of perceived risk of lead exposure, controlling for …

Future Colorado River Basin Drought And Surplus, Rama Bedri, Thomas Piechota

Biology, Chemistry, and Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles and Research

Historical and future drought and surplus periods in the Colorado River basin are evaluated based on eight climate scenarios. Unimpaired streamflow from 17 stations in the Colorado River are evaluated based on U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 downscaled data from 1950–2099. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios are considered for four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5). Drought (surplus) quantities, magnitudes, severities, and water year flows are compared for the historical and future periods. Results indicate that there is a significant difference between the historical record and future projections. The …

Comparing Past And Future Drought And Surplus Periods In The Colorado River Basin, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The Colorado River Basin is crucial to the Western United States, providing water for seven states and Mexico. Historical and future periods of drought and surplus are analyzed in 17 Colorado River stations. Unimpaired streamflow data are evaluated from the U.S. Geological Survey, Bureau of Reclamation, and Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Projection 5 from 1950-2099. Future projections are based on eight climate scenarios. Four climate models (HadGEM2-ES, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, MI-ROC5) are observed at Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios. Furthermore, the ensemble water year means of the four models are analyzed. The durations of drought or surplus, magnitudes, …

Drought‑Stricken U.S. States Have More Comprehensive Water‑Related Hazard Planning, Theresa Jedd, Kelly Smith

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Despite the devastating impacts of droughts, the United States lacks a national drought plan. This leaves states to address droughts in water, hazard, and stand-alone plans which are designed to reduce drought vulnerability and to prepare government, industry, and society to cope with the impacts. Yet, there is limited empirical research that evaluates the comprehensiveness of these plans, specifically in terms of whether they include preparedness and mitigation measures or triggers for action and response. To fill this gap, this study’s first aim was to establish an evaluation framework based on principles from the drought mitigation literature. The study then …

The Sensitivity Of Meteorological Dynamics To The Variability In Catchment Characteristics, Shimelash Molla Kassaye, Tsegaye Tadesse, Getachew Tegegne, Kindie Engdaw Tadesse

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Evaluating meteorological dynamics is a challenging task due to the variability in hydroclimatic settings. This study is designed to assess the sensitivity of precipitation and temperature dynamics to catchment variability. The effects of catchment size, land use/cover change, and elevation differences on precipitation and temperature variability were considered to achieve the study objective. The variability in meteorological parameters to the catchment characteristics was determined using the coefficient of variation on the climate data tool (CDT). A land use/cover change and terrain analysis was performed on Google Earth Engine (GEE) and ArcGIS. In addition, a correlation analysis was performed to identify …

Getting Ahead Of Flash Drought: From Early Warning To Early Action, Jason A. Otkin, Molly Woloszyn, Hailan Wang, Mark D. Svoboda, Marina Skumanich, Roger Pulwarty, Joel Lisonbee, Andrew Hoell, Mike Hobbins, Tonya Haigh, Amanda E. Cravens

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Flash droughts, characterized by their unusually rapid intensification, have garnered increasing attention within the weather, climate, agriculture, and ecological communities in recent years due to their large environmental and socioeconomic impacts. Because flash droughts intensify quickly, they require different early warning capabilities and management approaches than are typically used for slower-developing “conventional” droughts. In this essay, we describe an integrated research-and-applications agenda that emphasizes the need to reconceptualize our understanding of flash drought within existing drought early warning systems by focusing on opportunities to improve monitoring and prediction. We illustrate the need for engagement among physical scientists, social scientists, operational …

Impact Of Climate Oscillations/Indices On Hydrological Variables In The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer., Meena Raju

Theses and Dissertations

The Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer (MRVAA) is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States. The main objectives of this research are to identify long term trends and change points in hydrological variables (streamflow and rainfall), to assess the relationship between hydrological variables, and to evaluate the influence of global climate indices on hydrological variables. Non-parametric tests, MMK and Pettitt’s tests were used to analyze trend and change points. PCC and Streamflow elasticity analysis were used to analyze the relationship between streamflow and rainfall and the sensitivity of streamflow to rainfall changes. PCC and MLR analysis …

Overlapping Scales Of Place Based Indigenous Knowledge And Hydroclimate In Australia, Rachel L. Coleman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Indigenous Peoples have been monitoring and adapting to uncertainty and change in their local regions for millennia, resulting in a holistic view of the interlinkages within the occupied complex socio-environmental systems. This research consists of investigating the overlapping scales of knowledge within Indigenous Australian seasonal calendars and colonial methods of hydroclimate assessment for improving adaptability to climate change impacts.

The analyses began with a sample of 25 Indigenous seasonal calendars providing a glimpse into interlinkages among biota, environment, and meteorology of the localised regions. Across the calendars, five themes of information and multiple categories within these themes became apparent and …

Giving Form To Flow: Modeling The Paleohydrological Context For Human Settlement And Water Use In The North-Central Coast Of Peru, Elizabeth Leclerc

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Within coastal Andean archaeology there is a growing emphasis on the roles of hydrology and hydrological knowledge in Andean strategies for water management, settlement, and land use. Hydrological methods can not only help reconstruct past water environments but also illuminate the influence of changing climates and conditions in the Andean highlands on coastal water flows. Through a case study of the Supe River basin in north-central coastal Peru, focusing on the period from 5000 to 3000 calibrated radiocarbon years before present (cal. BP), I review several hydrological methods useful for archaeological study. I then combine these to develop a paleohydrological …

Lake Satellite Temperature Data Validation, Mamadou Balde, Pascal Kouogang

Publications and Research

In environmental remote sensing, satellite data isn't absolutely conclusive, for that reason, there is a natural need to verify the data acquired from the satellite. The most suitable tool to achieve such verification is on ground sensors that have the advantage of proximity. Addressing any possible discrepancies between the satellite data and the ground sensor data is sure to yield ways to come up with improvements of satellite band calibration and sensing capabilities. This research focused on correlating temperature data from the MODIS satellite with the data obtained from the In Situ sensor located in Lake Sunapee. Doing the latter …

Changes In Western U.S. Streamflow Extremes Under Climate Change, Rama Bedri

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

We are analyzing streamflow extremes in Western U.S. rivers due to climate change. Global warming causes natural disasters to reach extreme points and affects river volumes, snowfall, and precipitation amounts. We analyze the data for 17 stations in the Colorado River Basin, whose rivers provide Southern California’s drinking water supply. Disruptions in streamflow due to climate change affect the region’s water availability and make it difficult to predict future trends. We compared historical streamflow data to eight possible climate scenarios. The different scenarios are Warm Dry, Cool Wet, Average, and Other at emission levels of RCP 4.5 and 8.5. First, …

Aquatic Diversity In A Changing Tropical Andean Glacierized Catchment: Macroinvertebrates Reveal Possible Important Consequences To The Chimborazo Region As Glaciers Recede And The Climate Continues To Change, Tanner Thomas

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

Tropical Andean glaciers are retreating rapidly, and their disappearance will have drastic consequences for the people and ecosystems that depend on them. While they have begun to receive the attention they deserve in scientific literature, much is still not known. Majority of these investigations have taken place on the Volcán Antisana, while other important glacierized systems, like the Volcán Chimborazo have received little attention. This investigation aimed to a) evaluate the possible effects of glacier loss and climate change on aquatic ecosystems by comparing glacial meltwater, non-glacial and mixed streams, and b) to evaluate the effects of pasture intensity on …

Using Remote Sensing Technologies In Relocating Lubrak Village And Visualizing Flood Damages, Ronan Wallace

Independent Study Project (ISP) Collection

As weather patterns change across the world, there are communities impacted by climate change that are left unnoticed. In the Himalayan mountain range, communities have suffered, experiencing an increase in flash flooding and droughts. For Lubrak Village in Lower Mustang, the community faces the threats of flash flooding. Over the last ten years, the amount of flash flooding has increased, occurring more than once each monsoon season. After every flood, concrete-like sediment is left behind, hardening across the riverbed and increasing its elevation. As the riverbed elevation increases, this sediment encroaches on Lu-brak Village’s agricultural fields and ancient mud buildings, …