Other Earth Sciences Commons^™

Droughtscape- Spring 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Drought center helps islands reduce drought vulnerability.......... 2

2017 sees above-average precipitation, warmer temps.......... 3

California pulls out of drought............. 4

After tech transfer, training Tunisia launches first drought map............... 6

Drought center releases 2016 annual report.............. 7

Book chapter focuses on drought and health................ 8

U2U wraps up, brings useful tools to farmers...............9

Survey finds drought info leads to better decisions.............. 10

International Flyer Final, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

The National Drought Mitigation Center faculty and staff have worked with national and international organizations and countries around the world, providing a variety of services. The map shows where the drought center has collaborated on research, facilitated drought planning, shared technical knowledge, or provided programmatic advice.

Quick Drought Response Index: A Short-Term Dryness Indicator, National Drought Mitigation Center

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

WHAT IS QUICKDRI?

WHY WAS IT DEVELOPED?

WHAT INFORMATION IS USED IN QUICKDRI?

QUICKDRI PRODUCTS

ON THE QUICKDRI SITE:

THROUGH THE USGS DROUGHT VIEWER:

APPLICATION EXAMPLES:

Droughtscape- Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency............. 2

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall............. 3

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter............. 4

2016: Year in review................. 6-8

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders.............. 9

Tech pass-off in Tunisia.............. 10

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships............ 11

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts........... 12

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought................. 12

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech................... 13

Ndmc Annual Report 2017, Mark Svoboda, Kelly Smith, Deborah Bathke, Brian Fuchs, Cody L. Knutson, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

Contents
03 From the director

04 Center aims to arm planners with best info possible

05 Unifying drought planning recommendations

06 McCook, Nebraska: A case study for success

07 Natural hazards framework applied to drought
08 New index map identifies fast-moving drought
09 Highlighting drought’s effects on agriculture
10 A fresh look for the U.S. Drought Monitor site
11 Reaching Spanish-language users
12 Bringing climate tools to farmers
13 Learning to assess climate vulnerability
14 2017 by the numbers
16 Where we were in 2017
18 Gauging vulnerability to drought
19 Predicting climate extremes in Africa
20 Connecting drought indicators …

Droughtscape- Fall 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

NDMC welcome two to team ...... 2

Third quarter drought summary: Drought still spreading ................ 3

Third quarter drought impacts: It was a hot, dry summer ........... 5

Drought management framework for Africa approved...................... 7

MENA region update................... 9

US Virgin Islands one step closer to its own drought monitor ........ 10

Montana looks to improve watershed resilience ................. 13

Tournament tackles hazards.....14

Web tool will help officials make drought-related decisions ......... 17

Dry Horizons launches ............. 17

Drougthscape- Summer 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

NDMC adds two employees....... 2

Second quarter drought summary: Drought slowly spreading........... 3

Second quarter drought impacts: Drought intensifies across US.............5

First comprehensive drought

indices guidebook released........... 7

Drought Impact Reporter updates increase usability............. 9

Create a custom DIR view........... 10

Drought center co-leads MENA region project............. 11

McCook, Nebraska, tackles drought resilience.................. 12

Arizona groups improve public lands drought planning................ 15

NDMC founder Don Wilhite retires............... 18

Applying Newton’S Law Of Cooling When The Target Keeps Changing Temperature, Such As In Stratospheric Ballooning Missions, James Flaten, Kaye Smith, Erick Agrimson

2017 Academic High Altitude Conference

Newton’s Law of Cooling describes how a “small” system, such as a thermometer, comes to thermal equilibrium with a “large” system, such as its environment, as a function of time. It is typically applied when the environment is in thermal equilibrium and the conditions are such that the thermal decay time for the thermometer is a constant. Neither of these conditions are met when measuring environmental (i.e. atmospheric) temperature using a thermometer mounted in a payload lofted into the stratosphere under weather balloons. In this situation the thermometer is in motion so it encounters layer after layer of atmosphere which …

Droughtscape- Spring 2016, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report ......................... 1

First quarter drought summary .......... 3

First quarter drought impacts ........... 5

Drought Risk Management Research Center ........................ 7

Kenyan official visits .................. 8

DrIVER eyes forecasting ............ 9

Drought scenario exercise ........ 10

Student projects........................ 11

Drought tournament ................. 12

Response and recovery guide .......... 13

Drought Portal .......................... 13

Network of drought observers.......... 14

Caribbean “writeshops”............. 16

Communications staff grows..... 17

Droughtscape- Winter 2016, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s column.........................1

California drought FAQ................2

Oct.-Dec. 2015 drought ............... 4

Oct.-Dec. 2015 impacts...............6

2015 drought impacts in review.............7

NDMC hiring geospatial analyst ............. 8

CA drought exposes social vulnerability.................................. 9

UA helps AZ ranchers, Forest Service work together................12

NDMC & partners help S. Plains ranchers manage drought ......... 15

Chickasaw ranching workshop............16

2016 Annual Report Building Drought Resilence, Kelly Smith

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

CONTENTS

04 From the Director

05 U.S. Drought Monitor puts national conversation on same page

06 Bringing the USDM to the U.S. Virgin Islands

07 Centers lead drought project in the Middle East and North Africa region

10 Drought impact archive updates make finding local data easier

11 National Drought Mitigation Center, tribes partner to assess climate vulnerability

12 Drought guidebook comprehensive catalog of indicators

13 Caribbean nations advance drought preparedness

14 By the numbers: A look at the NDMC in 2016

16 Where we worked in 2016

18 By the numbers: The NDMC’s 20-year footprint

19 DrIVER keeps eye …

Droughtscape- Fall 2015, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s column.........................1

NDMC 20th anniversary .............. 2

Employment opportunity..............3

Third quarter 2015 climate summary ...................................... 4

Third quarter 2015 impacts summary ...................................... 6

Workshop in Ethiopia...................8

San Antonio multi-hazard tournament .................................. 9

Healthy soil is drought buffer ............. 10

U2U Award ................................ 11

Cost-benefit analysis for utilities managing drought......................12

NDMC helps with rural poll questions on climate..................13

Introducing our post-docs..........14

South Korean visitors ................ 14

Droughtscape- Summer 2015, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s column.........................1

New Drought Risk Management Research Center ......................... 3

Second quarter 2015 climate summary ...................................... 4

Second quarter 2015 impacts summary ...................................... 6

Caribbean region an innovator in drought early warning..................8

Wind River Reservation tribes move toward drought planning ............... 10

Ranchers, U.S. Forest Service, University of Arizona co-develop drought plans.............................12

Summer blockbuster from CoCoRaHS: Assessing Drought in the U.S........................14

Western states drought coordinators meet......................14

Drougthscape- Spring 2015, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s column.........................1

South Plains ranch workshops ........... 3

First quarter drought summary .............. 4

First quarter impacts summary .............. 6

Gary’s favorite pond, D1-4...........8

NDMC’s Haigh leads U2U pubs ..............10

SW MT watersheds convene.................12

Wind River monitors drought..................13

Morocco’s new drought index................14

NE Brazil drought monitoring.....16

EU’s drought initiative................16

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum ..... 16

How CO tourism coped in 2012........... 17

Global Warming And Population Responses Among Great Plains Birds, Paul A. Johnsgard

Zea E-Books Collection

Based on an analysis of 47 years (1967–2014) of Audubon Christmas Bird Counts (CBC), evidence for population changes and shifts in early winter (late December) ranges of nearly 150 species of birds in the Great Plains states is summarized, a region defined as including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas panhandle. The rationale for this study had its origins in Terry Root’s 1988 Atlas of North American Wintering Birds. Root’s landmark study provided a baseline for evaluating the nationwide winter distributions of 253 North American birds in the mid-20th century, using data from the National Audubon Society’s …

Towards Predicting Street-Level Inundation: Using Operational Forecast Modeling Techniques During 2011 Hurricane Irene, J. D. Loftis, H. V. Wang, D. R. Forrest

Presentations

Storm surge-induced coastal inundation poses numerous personal, commercial, industrial, and sociopolitical challenges for society. Flooding can be caused by the combination of storm surge and river-induced inland flooding in many locations throughout the coastal plain. The cross-disciplinary nature of the hydrodynamics involved (hydraulics, oceanography, and hydrology), coupled with the complexity of the atmospheric forcing, makes a numerical model the best approach for a comprehensive study of the dynamics of coastal inundation.

This study builds upon the lessons learned from forecast modeling experiences during 2011 Hurricane Irene in Tidewater Virginia, to ascertain the most effective way to approach predicting street-level inundation. …

Drougthscape- Winter 2015, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Central U.S. 2012 report..............3

Oct.-Dec. drought summary ........ 4

2014 drought summary................6

Caribbean capacity building ........ 8

Drought impacts in 2014..............9

California timeline 2014.............12

UC Davis ranching workshop .... 14

NASA SMAP data......................16

Global drought info system........17

Community Capitals .................. 18

Evaluation and assessment.......19

Indicator-impact research .........20

NDMC on YouTube....................21

A Fast Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Simulator For Cloudy Atmospheres, Chao Liu, Ping Yang, Steven Platnick, Kerry G. Meyer, Chenxi Wang, Shouguo Ding

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Faculty Publications

A fast instrument simulator is developed to simulate the observations made in cloudy atmospheres by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The correlated k distribution technique is used to compute the transmissivities associated with absorbing atmospheric gases. The bulk scattering properties of ice clouds are based on the ice model used for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Collection 6 ice cloud products, and those ofwater clouds are computedwith the Lorenz-Mie theory. Two fast radiative transfer models based on precomputed ice cloud look-up tables are used for the VIIRS solar and infrared channels. The accuracy and efficiency of the fast …

Droughtscape- Fall 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Upcoming events.........................3

Drought & climate summary ........ 4

Drought impacts .........................6

Drought planning in Brazil ........10

Ethiopian workshop ................... 12

Visiting scholar .........................13

Help for South Plains ranchers.........13

Wind River tribal workshop...........14

Inter Tribal Buffalo Council ............ 15

South Dakota ranch workshops............ 16

Automated Image Interpretation For Science Autonomy In Robotic Planetary Exploration, Raymond Francis

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Advances in the capabilities of robotic planetary exploration missions have increased the wealth of scientific data they produce, presenting challenges for mission science and operations imposed by the limits of interplanetary radio communications. These data budget pressures can be relieved by increased robotic autonomy, both for onboard operations tasks and for decision- making in response to science data.

This thesis presents new techniques in automated image interpretation for natural scenes of relevance to planetary science and exploration, and elaborates autonomy scenarios under which they could be used to extend the reach and performance of exploration missions on planetary surfaces.

Two …

Droughtscape- Summer 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook ........................................ 2

Drought & climate summary ........ 2

Drought impacts .........................4

International drought monitoring and planning ...............................8

Visiting scholars.........................10

North American Drought Monitor Forum ........................................ 11

New primary Dust Bowl source .............. 12

New additions to online webinar archive ....................................... 14

Community Capitals Framework Institute ...................................... 15

Droughtscape- Spring 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook ........................................ 2

Drought climate recap ................. 3

Drought impacts .........................4

DroughtAtlas ..............................8

Missouri River Basin pilot ............ 9

NASA Horn of Africa project ............... 10

U2U tools and social science ............. 12

Consulting for Turkey................. 14

Czech drought monitoring ......... 14

Droughtscape- Winter 2014, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...........................1

Outlook & quarterly review .......... 2

Drought in 2013 review................3

Quarterly impacts review ............. 5

Impacts in 2013 review................8

Belmont Forum research...........10

USDM change maps ................. 11

Central Asia drought planning ....... 12

Kansas RC&D planning.............13

Publication compares plans.......13

Drought for planners webinar .... 14

Soil moisture networks .............. 14

KS farm & ranch planning..........15

$500 to develop leadership ....... 15

Kids seek solutions....................16

Plains symposium April 1-4 ....... 17

Planning And Drought, James C. Schwab

National Drought Mitigation Center: Publications

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Chapter 1: Drought: The Problem.............................................. 1

Water Impacts ............................................................................... 2

Public Health Impacts ......................................................... 4

Environmental Impacts ..................................................... 5

Built Environment Impacts................................................ 6

Secondary Hazards ......................................................... 9

Economic Impacts ................................................................... 10

Drought as a Challenge for Planners .......................................... 13

Chapter 2: Drought: The Knowledge Base ................................................... 15

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Drought ................................................................ 16

Drought and Climate Changes .................................................................................. 19

Tracking Drought: Tools and Resources ................................................................... 20

Using the Drought Resources Toolbox...................................................................... 22

Droughtscape- Fall 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s Report ....................1

Kansas community drought planning workshop Nov. 5 ...... 2

Drought impacts webinars .....3

Drought outlook & summary ... 4

Late summer drought brings more agricultural impacts ....... 6

Plans help ranchers weather drought ................................. 10

NDMC contributions to U2U project ..................................12

Drought Management Database archives strategies................13

QuickDRI will help spot flash droughts................................ 14

NDMC Co-Hosts NASA work- shop......................................15

Wilhite leads Integrated Drought Management Program work....... 15

Speaking of drought ............ 16

Managing #Drought tweet chat transcript ..............................17

Updated USDM website ....... 17

Droughtscape- Summer 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s Report ....................1

July 25 webinar: Drought management database, NIDIS update..................................... 2

Republican River Basin workshops July 31, August 1.......... 3

Summer climate outlook, spring summary ................................. 4

Spring impacts: wildfire, water, agriculture and business.........6

Data help managers assess Nebraska groundwater declines after drought of 2012........... 10

Tadesse helps Mexico with Veg- DRI concept..........................14

Visiting scholar explores remote sensing of drought in forests....... 15

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum photo recap, details online............ 16

Workshop helps New Mexico ranchers cope with drought ........... 18

Alabama’s new drought plan......... 19

National Drought Forum report........... 19

Drought Impacts Community of Practice report …

Droughtscape- Spring 2013, National Drought Mitigation Center

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report........................................................................................................1

First quarter climate summary and outlook ........................................................... 2

Impacts: Crop indemnities set records in 2012; water conflicts escalating ............ 4

International meeting recommends countries have drought policies ..................... 8

NDMC plays key role in international drought policy meeting ............................. 9

EDEN and VOAD guide helps build community drought capacity.....................10

Svoboda, other experts and policymakers focus on food and water security.......11

New Mexico ranching workshop set for May 29 in Socorro ................................. 12

Ranch planning updates: archived webinars, new publications ........................... 12

Tune in to the US Drought Monitor Forum, April 16-18.....................................13

Archived webinar looks at using drought …

A Gcm Comparison Of Plio-Pleistocene Interglacial-Glacial Periods In Relation To Lake El’Gygytgyn, Ne Arctic Russia, Anthony J. Coletti

Masters Theses 1911 - February 2014

Until now, the lack of time-continuous, terrestrial paleoenvironmental data from the Pleistocene Arctic has made model simulations of past interglacials difficult to assess. Here, we compare climate simulations of four warm interglacials at Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 1 (9ka), 5e (127 ka), 11c (409 ka), and 31 (1072 ka) with new proxy climate data recovered from Lake El’gygytgyn, NE Russia. Climate reconstructions of the Mean Temperature of the Warmest Month (MTWM) indicate conditions 2.1, 0.5 and 3.1 ºC warmer than today during MIS 5e, 11c, and 31 respectively. While the climate model captures much of the observed warming during each …

Droughtscape- Winter 2013, Kelly Smith

Droughtscape, Quarterly Newsletter of NDMC, 2007-

CONTENTS

Director’s report...................................................................................1

Climatological overview of drought in 2012 ...................................... 2

Climatological overview of drought, Oct.-Dec. 2012.........................5

Impacts of drought in 2012 ................................................................. 6

Drought planning webinars scheduled for ranch advisors ..............10

UNL honors NDMC for exceptional service ...................................10

Report from the emerging community of drought planners ...........11

Feb. 6 webinar on drought simulations ............................................ 11

Climate Masters course starting ......................................................12

Climate Change in the Midwest book includes drought ................12

Video highlights from coverage of drought of 2012..........................13

U.S. Drought Monitor Forum 2013 .................................................. 13

UN’s High Level Meeting on National Drought Policy .................... 14

NDMC collaboration with India, Czech …

Information Content Of Seasonal Forecasts In A Changing Climate, Nir Krakauer, Michael D. Grossberg, Irina Gladkova, Hannah Aizenman

Publications and Research

We study the potential value to stakeholders of probabilistic long-term forecasts, as quantified by the mean information gain of the forecast compared to climatology. We use as a case study the USA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecasts of 3-month temperature and precipitation anomalies made at 0.5-month lead time since 1995. Mean information gain was positive but low (about 2% and 0.5% of the maximum possible for temperature and precipitation forecasts, resp.) and has not increased over time. Information-based skill scores showed similar patterns to other, non-information-based, skill scores commonly used for evaluating seasonal forecasts but tended to be smaller, suggesting …