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Full-Text Articles in Hydrology
Analysis Of Uncertainty In Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts, Carolien N. Mossel
Analysis Of Uncertainty In Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts, Carolien N. Mossel
Dissertations and Theses
Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting has great potential for improving flood predictions and use in water management systems, however, the amount of data used and created with an ensemble forecast requires a careful and intentional approach to understand how useful and skillful the forecast is. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) was run using downscaled NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) meteorological forcings for the 2016-2017 wet season (October-March) in California to create an 11-member hydrologic forecast ensemble. To evaluate the performance of these ensemble forecasts, we chose to study streamflow sites within Sonoma County, California, a rain-dominated region which includes the …
Are Climate Model Simulations Useful For Forecasting Precipitation Trends? Hindcast And Synthetic-Data Experiments, Nir Y. Krakauer, Balázs M. Fekete
Are Climate Model Simulations Useful For Forecasting Precipitation Trends? Hindcast And Synthetic-Data Experiments, Nir Y. Krakauer, Balázs M. Fekete
Publications and Research
Water scientists and managers currently face the question of whether trends in climate variables that affect water supplies and hazards can be anticipated. We investigate to what extent climate model simulations may provide accurate forecasts of future hydrologic nonstationarity in the form of changes in precipitation amount. We compare gridded station observations (GPCC Full Data Product, 1901–2010) and climate model outputs (CMIP5 Historical and RCP8.5 simulations, 1901–2100) in real and syntheticdata hindcast experiments. The hindcast experiments show that imputing precipitation trends based on the climate model mean reduced the root mean square error of precipitation trend estimates for 1961–2010 by …