Hydrology Commons^™

Understanding The Zonal Variability In Cmip6 Projections Of Sahelian Precipitation, Emmanuel Ogwuche Audu

Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The uncertainty in model projections of future precipitation across the Sahel has persisted across many generations of Earth System Models (ESMs), with some models predicting drying and others moistening across this region. These discrepancies in future projections pose a challenge for stakeholders and decision makers. Many projections of Sahel precipitation found in the ESMs participating in the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a zonal dipole in precipitation trend, with moistening across the Central and Eastern Sahel and drying projected for the Western Sahel. Previous studies have connected precipitation variability across the Sahel to changes in various …

Quantifying A 21-Year Surface Water And Groundwater Interaction In A Ridge And Valley Lake Environment Using A Highly Constrained Modeling Approach, Richard T. Bowers Jr.

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Karst lakes are ubiquitous in ridge terrain settings in limestone aquifer coastal plain environments. In west-central Florida, these lakes are frequently connected to the Upper Floridan aquifer and have unique aquifer recharge characteristics. They have been selectively studied because they commonly have no or very limited surface water discharge and limited drainage areas, have appreciable surface water and groundwater interaction and leak to the deep aquifer. An innovative modeling approach was developed to collectively understand and more precisely quantify this vertical leakage, both from a lake-specific and regional water budget standpoint, for a 21-year study period (2000-2020). A unique, calibrated …

Irrigation’S Impact On A Precipitation Event During Grainex In Nebraska, Usa, Daniel Whitesel

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

Numerous precipitation events were observed during the Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX). However, the precipitation event that was observed the morning of 23 July 2018 is the focus of this thesis. Six experiments were conducted which involved increasing or decreasing soil moisture by 5% increments over the irrigated cropland. An additional experiment, which changed the irrigated land use to grassland, showed precipitation increases. It was found that regardless of strength of irrigation, average precipitation decreased. Average precipitation decreased by up to 72% when irrigation increased compared to the control simulation and decreased by up to 85% when irrigation decreased compared …

An Assessment Of The Filling Process Of The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam And Its Impact On The Downstream Countries, Prakrut Kansara, Wenzhao Li, Hesham El-Askary, Venkat Lakshmi, Thomas Piechota, Daniele Struppa, Mohamed Abdelaty Sayed

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), formerly known as the Millennium Dam, has been filling at a fast rate. This project has created issues for the Nile Basin countries of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia. The filling of GERD has an impact on the Nile Basin hydrology and specifically the water storages (lakes/reservoirs) and flow downstream. In this study, through the analysis of multi-source satellite imagery, we study the filling of the GERD reservoir. The time-series generated using Sentinel-1 SAR imagery displays the number of classified water pixels in the dam from early June 2017 to September 2020, indicating a contrasting …

Analysis Of Uncertainty In Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasts, Carolien N. Mossel

Dissertations and Theses

Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting has great potential for improving flood predictions and use in water management systems, however, the amount of data used and created with an ensemble forecast requires a careful and intentional approach to understand how useful and skillful the forecast is. The NOAA National Water Model (NWM) was run using downscaled NOAA Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) meteorological forcings for the 2016-2017 wet season (October-March) in California to create an 11-member hydrologic forecast ensemble. To evaluate the performance of these ensemble forecasts, we chose to study streamflow sites within Sonoma County, California, a rain-dominated region which includes the …

Characterizing El Niño-Southern Oscillation Effects On The Blue Nile Yield And The Nile River Basin Precipitation Using Empirical Mode Decomposition, Justin A. Le, Hesham El-Askary, Mohamed Allali, Eman Sayed, Hani Sweliem, Thomas C. Piechota, Daniele C. Struppa

Mathematics, Physics, and Computer Science Faculty Articles and Research

Using new mathematical and data-driven techniques, we propose new indices to measure and predict the strength of different El Niño events and how they affect regions like the Nile River Basin (NRB). Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), when applied to Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), yields three Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMF) tracking recognizable and physically significant non-stationary processes. The aim is to characterize underlying signals driving ENSO as reflected in SOI, and show that those signals also meaningfully affect other physical processes with scientific and predictive utility. In the end, signals are identified which have a strong statistical relationship with various physical …

Understanding The Food Water Nexus: Characterizing The Impact Of Climatological Anomalies On Agrosystems, Patrick M. Wurster Jr.

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

Climate variability at global and regional scales is escalating with increased atmospheric carbon and is expected to magnify the intensity and duration of meteorological extremes, especially droughts. From the many environmental stresses that diminish crop production (e.g., soil salinity, frost, soil erosion) drought is one of the most prevalent. This study focuses on the sensitivity of three key crops produced in the northwestern United States to climatological anomalies, while controlling for attribution using anomalies in price. The study differs from similar studies in that we focus on variability in production which captures both yield (tonnes/ha) and cropping area (ha), as …

Slides: Water Allocation And Water Markets In Spain, Nuria Hernández-Mora

Coping with Water Scarcity in River Basins Worldwide: Lessons Learned from Shared Experiences (Martz Summer Conference, June 9-10)

Presenter: Nuria Hernández Mora, Universidad de Sevilla, Spain

22 slides

Rainfall Accumulation In Clarksville, Tennessee 2015093 To 2015121, Jessica Mae Bender

Graduate Student Publications and Other Works

The purpose of this project was to collect rainfall samples and record the data in such a way that tested a hypothesis. My hypothesis is that the area in Clarksville, Tennessee where the samples are collected will collect up to eight inches of rain for the thirteen week time span.

The Effect Of Disturbance And Freshwater Availability On Lower Florida Keys’ Coastal Forest Dynamics, Danielle E. Ogurcak

FIU Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Coastal forest retreat in the Florida Keys during the 20^th century has been attributed to a combination of sea level rise and hurricane storm surge impacts, but the interactions between these two disturbances leading to forest decline are not well understood. The goal of my research was to assess their effects over a period spanning more than two decades, and to examine the relationships between these press and pulse disturbances and freshwater availability in pine rockland, hardwood hammock, and supratidal scrub communities. Impacts and recovery from two storm surges, Hurricanes Georges (1998) and Wilma (2005), were assessed with satellite-derived …

Slides: California's Bay-Delta Conveyance Problem: A Light At The End Of The Tunnel(S)?, Jerry Meral

Innovations in Managing Western Water: New Approaches for Balancing Environmental, Social and Economic Outcomes (Martz Summer Conference, June 11-12)

Presenter: Jerry Meral, Director of California Water Programs, Natural Heritage Institute

8 slides

Slides: Perspectives On Water Management In Arizona, Kathy Jacobs

Innovations in Managing Western Water: New Approaches for Balancing Environmental, Social and Economic Outcomes (Martz Summer Conference, June 11-12)

Presenter: Kathy Jacobs, Director, Center for Climate Adaptation Science and Solutions (CCASS), Department of Soil, Water and Environmental Science, University of Arizona

25 slides

Are Climate Model Simulations Useful For Forecasting Precipitation Trends? Hindcast And Synthetic-Data Experiments, Nir Y. Krakauer, Balázs M. Fekete

Publications and Research

Water scientists and managers currently face the question of whether trends in climate variables that affect water supplies and hazards can be anticipated. We investigate to what extent climate model simulations may provide accurate forecasts of future hydrologic nonstationarity in the form of changes in precipitation amount. We compare gridded station observations (GPCC Full Data Product, 1901–2010) and climate model outputs (CMIP5 Historical and RCP8.5 simulations, 1901–2100) in real and syntheticdata hindcast experiments. The hindcast experiments show that imputing precipitation trends based on the climate model mean reduced the root mean square error of precipitation trend estimates for 1961–2010 by …

Impacts Of Climate Change On The Surface Water Balance Of The Central United States, 1984-2007, Bo Dong

School of Natural Resources: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The climate system and the hydrologic cycle are strongly connected with each other. Understanding the interactions between these two systems is important, since variations in climate can trigger extensive changes in the hydrologic cycle, with significant impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and society. Observations over the central U.S. in recent decades show numerous changes in climatic variables. This includes decreases in cloud cover and wind speed, increases in air temperature, and seasonal shifts in precipitation rate and rain/snow fraction. To assess the impacts of these variations in climate on the regional water cycle, a terrestrial ecosystem/land surface hydrologic model (Agro-IBIS) is …

Slides: Risk Management Strategies Of The Upper Basin: Addressing Potential Shortages, Eric Kuhn

Navigating the Future of the Colorado River (Martz Summer Conference, June 8-10)

Presenter: Eric Kuhn, Colorado River Water Conservation District

15 slides

Effects Of Drought On Avian Community Structure, Thomas P. Albright, Anna M. Pidgeon, Chadwick D. Rittenhouse, Murray K. Clayton, Curtis H. Flather, Patrick D. Culbert, Brian D. Wardlows, Volker C. Radeloff

Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Droughts are expected to become more frequent under global climate change. Avifauna depend on precipitation for hydration, cover, and food. While there are indications that avian communities respond negatively to drought, little is known about the response of birds with differing functional and behavioral traits, what time periods and indicators of drought are most relevant, or how response varies geographically at broad spatial scales. Our goals were thus to determine (1) how avian abundance and species richness are related to drought, (2) whether community variations are more related to vegetation vigor or precipitation deviations and at what time periods relationships …

Slides: Water Footprints: Consciousness Raising Meets Risk Management, Steve Malloch

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Steve Malloch, Senior Western Water Program Manager, National Wildlife Federation, Seattle, WA

38 slides

Slides: Climate Change And The Death Of Stationarity: A New Era For Western Water?, Stephen T. Gray

Western Water Law, Policy and Management: Ripples, Currents, and New Channels for Inquiry (Martz Summer Conference, June 3-5)

Presenter: Steven T. Gray, Wyoming State Climatologist, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY

48 slides

The Future Of Groundwater In The West, James S. Lochhead

Groundwater in the West (Summer Conference, June 16-18)

7 pages.

Slides: The Spokane And The Yakima: A Tale Of Two Aquifers, Rachel Paschal Osborn

Groundwater in the West (Summer Conference, June 16-18)

Presenter: Rachael Paschal Osborn, Private Practice and Gonzaga Law School.

89 slides.