Chemical Actions and Uses Commons^™

Dynamic Modeling Of Nonmedical Opioid Initiation: Epidemic And Access, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt, Dennis Mccarty, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

We report development of a systems level dynamic model of initiation and nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids in the US. The model calibrated to 1995-2005 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) data, predicts 2006-2011 data well. Preliminary findings indicate that interventions which reduce the perceived attractiveness of opioids for recreational use may be able to reduce initiation and nonmedical use most significantly, while supply restriction effected through drug take back days and prescribing changes may have more modest effects. We argue that system dynamics is an effective approach for evaluating potential interventions to this complex system where the …

Data On The Diversion, Nonmedical Use And Adverse Outcomes Associated With Pharmaceutical Opioids, Amanuel Zimam, Teresa D. Schmidt, Alexandra Nielsen, Wayne W. Wakeland

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Background: Recent increases in the nonmedical use of pharmaceutical opioids and the adverse outcomes associated with them have stimulated a large amount of research and data collection on this public health problem. Systematic organization of the available data sources is needed to facilitate ongoing research, analysis, and evaluation.

Method: A list of keywords associated with diversion, nonmedical use, and adverse outcomes of pharmaceutical opioid use generated 94 peer-reviewed academic articles and a number of governmental and nongovernmental sources. All sources were in English, contained quantitative data, and were published between January 1995 and April 2012. A list of 20 topics …

System Dynamics Modeling Of Medical Use, Nonmedical Use And Diversion Of Prescription Opioid Analgesics, Wayne Wakeland, Alexandra Nielsen, Teresa D. Schmidt

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

The objective of the study was to develop a system dynamics model of the medical use of pharmaceutical opioids to treat pain, and the associated diversion and nonmedical use of these drugs. The model was used to test the impact of simulated interventions in this complex system. The study relied on secondary data obtained from the literature and from other public sources for the period 1995 to 2008. In addition, an expert panel provided recommendations regarding model parameters and model structure. The behavior of the resulting systems level model compared favorably with reference behavior data (R2=.95). After the base model …

Key Data Gaps For Understanding Trends In Prescription Opioid Analgesic Abuse And Diversion Among Chronic Pain Patients And Nonmedical Users, Wayne W. Wakeland, John Fitzgerald, Aaron Gilson, J. David Haddox, Jack Homer, Lewis Lee, Louis Macovsky, Dennis Mccarty, Teresa D. Schmidt, Lynn Webster

Systems Science Faculty Publications and Presentations

Population dynamics of medical and nonmedical prescription opioid usage and adverse outcomes were modeled. Critical parameter values were determined by their amount of influence on model behavior. Results suggest that closing these data gaps would help researchers to better identify ways to reduce the risk of adverse outcomes.