Other Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons^™

Water Resources Planning Under Deep Uncertainty For Physically, Socially, And Politically Complex Systems, Sarah St. George Freeman

Doctoral Dissertations

Water supply systems, particularly those of large cities, are complex systems linking supply, regulatory and distribution infrastructure, and points of use. Despite their physical complexities, it is infrequent that full supply, distribution, end use, and feedbacks therein are considered in an integrated manner. These complex systems-of-systems face large uncertainties related to physical aspects such as degradation of infrastructure, changing demand, and climate variability and change. Though great, such physical uncertainties often pale in comparison to the those related to the human systems in place to manage them and yet uncertainty in the decision-making landscape is often grossly simplified in our …

Impact Of Regional Climate Changes On Changes In River Water Content In Uzbekistan, A.T. Salokhiddinov, P.A. Khakimova, R.V. Toryanniova, O.A. Ashirova, A.G. Gofurov

Irrigation and Melioration

The paper presents the research results on the analysis of the climate change impacts on the potential of water resources in Central Asia. We analyzed the materials of an extensive database of monitoring data from numerous gauge stations on different river basins and satellite data information. A quantitative assessment of the transformation of river hydrographs, the growth of flow variability in the Republic of Uzbekistan's major rivers, in connection with climate change, was performed. The specific features of the impact of climate changes on changes in the water content of rivers in Uzbekistan in large and small river basins are …

Assessment Of The Impact Of Climate Change On Hydrological Processes In The Chirchik River Basin, Kh.Sh. Gafforov, Sh.D. Sh.D.Tursunboev

Irrigation and Melioration

The importance of assessing past and future climate differences plays an important role in future planning in relation to climate change. This situation requires urgent and concerted action in several areas: technology, infrastructure, politics, economics, and the environment. The article evaluates the impact of changes in precipitation intensity on the water level in the global circulation model (GCM) RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. This study is a useful reference for improving water resource management and ensuring the sustainability of agricultural products in the future, as well as for improving operational water management and agricultural …

Empirical Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Agriculture In Samarkand Region, Sh.B. Babakholov

Irrigation and Melioration

Agricultural production is highly sensitive to climate factors like other endogenous factors, and the expected climate change projections may have a negative impact on the efficiency and income of agricultural producers. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the impact of changes in climatic factors (average air temperature and precipitation) on the technical efficiency of cotton growing farmers as its determinants in Samarkand region. Empirical analyzes were performed on the cases of 1141 cotton-growing farms using panel-based Time-Invariant Inefficiency model. According to the results of the analysis, cotton farms in the region have an average technical efficiency of 76%, which in …

Economic Assesment Of The Impact Of Climate Factors On Wheat Yield In Samarkand Region, Sh.B. Babakholov

Irrigation and Melioration

Agricultural production is highly vulnerable to climate shocks and predicted climate consequences may pose severe challenges to the resilience of Uzbek agricultural system, especially in terms of food security and income stability of rural producers. In this context, present study proposed to assess the impact of climate factors, such particular changes in mean temperature and rainfalls on total output of wheat-cultivating farmers in Samarkand region. By considering irrigation source and heterogeneous geography of the region, farmers engaged in wheat production were analyzed in two: upstream and downstream zones using Fixed effect panel approach. The empirical findings of study revealed that, …

Determination And Assessment Of The Spatio-Temporal Changing Dynamics In The Groundwater Level And Mineralization In Irrigated Areas Under Climate Change (As An Example Of Syrdarya Province), S. Khasanov, S. Adilov, R. Kulmatov

Irrigation and Melioration

In the irrigated lands of the Aral Sea Basin, salinization processes are taking place as a result of rising groundwater levels and increasing its mineralization due to the unsustainable use of water and land resources. This, in turn, leads to the withdrawing of arable land and a decrease in crop yields. This is especially the case in the irrigated areas of the lower reaches of the Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers, located in Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan. This research was aimed to learn and evaluate the long-term changing behavior of groundwater level and mineralization in the irrigated areas of the …

Assessing The Impacts Of Super Storm Flooding In The Transportation Infrastructure – Case Study: San Antonio, Texas, Marcio Giacomoni, Francisco Olivera, Cesar Do Lago

Publications

Flooding are likely to increase worldwide due to climate change. Large storms, referred here as superstorms, defined as events with return period equal or larger than 100 years, can lead to an increase of property damages and loss of life. The ability to predict and plan for the impacts of superstorms on transportation infrastructure is key to mitigate future damages and losses. This study analyzed 51 combinations of future projections for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which were used to calculate future 1st and 3rd quartiles, median, minimum and maximum intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF). A HEC-HMS and GSSHA …

Wrack Lines Volume 19, Number 1, Spring/Summer 2019, Nancy Balcom, Syma Ebbin, David Gregorio, Richard Telford, Judy Benson

Wrack Lines

Issue theme is: "Making Connections: As the Climate Changes, People and Nature Intertwine in New Ways." Articles include: "As More Roads Become Rivers, Communities Search for Solutions;" "Solving an Engineering Conundrum: As Coastal Homes Get Elevated, New Research Looks at Whether Vulnerability to Wind Damage Is Increasing;" "Along the Coast, Residents Consider How to Heed Sandy's Warning of What's to Come;" "All Rivers, All Lives Run to the Sea," about the intersection of waterways and the world of nature writer Edwin Way Teale; and "Crosscurrents: Connecticut Sea Grant's Retrospective Exhibition Makes Waves," about reaching new audiences and building bridges with …

Future Changes Of Hydroclimatic Extremes In Western North America Using A Large Ensemble: The Role Of Internal Variability, Mohammad Hasan Mahmoudi

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Increases in the intensity and frequency of extreme events in Western North America (WNA) can cause significant socioeconomic problems and threaten existing infrastructure. In this study we analyze the impacts of climate change on hydroclimatic extremes and assess the role of internal variability over WNA, which collectively drain an area of about 1 million km². We used gridded observations and downscaled precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature from seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and a large ensemble of CanESM2 model simulations (CanESM2-LE; 50 members) for this analysis. Spatial …

Aesthetics, Ethics, And Lose-Lose Dilemmas In The Anthropocen, Adam Liska

Biological Systems Engineering: Papers and Publications

Anthropogenic climate change will cause violence to increase globally, and nonlinear increases in sea level could cause a major escalation in global conflict. After 2100, a 22-meter sea-level rise is estimated here to dislocate two billion people from coastal areas. These impending civilization-changing events require us to again reevaluate our prevalent aesthetic preferences for luxury that produce a significant fraction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Due to industrial inertia, a central dilemma discussed here is the contradictions between the goals and impacts of aesthetics and ethics. Either we lose our own well-being (a loss of high-emission aesthetics) for the benefit …

Perceptions Of Vulnerability To Flooding, Hurricanes, And Climate Change On Grand Isle, Louisiana’S Only Inhabited Barrier Island, Lauren Miller

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

This study used in-depth interviews of permanent residents on Grand Isle, Louisiana, a remote barrier island, to better understand their perceptions of structural flood measures, non-structural responses to flooding and hurricanes, and perceptions of vulnerability to flooding, hurricanes, and climate change on a remote barrier island-Grand Isle, Louisiana. Residents' perceptions regarding the various structural measures implemented by the federal, state, and local government appeared mixed. Non-structural responses to flooding risks implemented at the household, community, state, and federal level continue to strengthen resiliency on Grand Isle. According to interviewees, aspects of environmental, rural, and economic vulnerability on Grand Isle impact …

Prediction And Rehabilitation Of Highway Embankment Slope Failures In Changing Climate, Navid Jafari, Anand Puppala

Data

Corresponding data set for Tran-SET Project No. 17GTLSU04. Abstract of the final report is stated below for reference:

"Highway slopes constructed with clayey soil are prone to desiccation cracks due to wetting and drying weather cycle, which allows greater moisture infiltration into the embankment from precipitation. Fissures formed due to extended wetting and drying cycles allow water to seep deeper into the soil than surficial wetting and increase the water content. This increases the moisture content in the soil and results in reduction in shear strength to the fully softened strength. On the other hand, development of desiccation cracks and …

Preparing Water Supply Systems For Climate Change: The Role Of Hydrologic Forecasting In The Northeast, Leslie Decristofaro

Doctoral Dissertations

Fresh water is a resource strongly impacted by climactic conditions. Water supply systems in the northeastern United States will see the effects of climate change on their water quality and quantity in various ways, including changes in seasonality of flows, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, and changes in the variability of precipitation and water availability. Five northeastern water supplies examined are expected to maintain at least 95% monthly reliability over a range of climates wider than the current projections. However, model results indicate that turbidity levels in New York City's Ashokan Reservoir will change with …

Modelling Of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change, Ayushi Gaur

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and hydrological cycle in Canada. In this study, future runoff projections made by 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used as inputs into a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model: CaMa-Flood to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) time-periods. Future changes in flood-hazard as a consequence of changes in flooding frequencies of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events, and changes in the month of occurrence of extreme flows are analyzed. Changes in flood risk at Canada’s 100 most populous cities and …

Decision Analytical Methods For Robust Water Infrastructure Planning Under Deep Uncertainty, Mehmet Umit Taner

Doctoral Dissertations

Deep uncertainties resulting from climate change, demographic pressures, and rapidly evolving socioeconomic conditions are challenging the way that water planners design and operate large-scale infrastructure systems. Conventionally, water infrastructures have been developed using stationary methods, assuming that the underlying uncertainties can be derived from historical data or experience. However, these methods are less useful under deeply uncertain climate and socioeconomic conditions, in which the future can be substantially different from the past and cannot be expressed by well-defined probability distributions. The recognition of deep uncertainties in long-term water resources planning has led to the development of “decision-analytical” frameworks that do …

Reconciling Information From Climate-Economic Model Ensembles, A. Shchiptsova, D. Kovalevsky, E. Rovenskaya

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

To date, no model building process can guarantee full representation of the complex climate-economic processes and narrow down the uncertainty associated with future climate projections. Multiple highly detailed models are developed by individual research groups to capture various known aspects of the climate processes. Normally, these models represent only a part of the climate-society system due to its complexity. On the other hand, a number of the simplified integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been put forward in the attempt to introduce the full causal loop between accumulated emissions, economy and climate, and study associated uncertainty. We present a simplified system …

Climate Change Impacts On Precipitation Extremes, Flows And Flash Floods In Mediterranean Mesoscale Catchments, Antoine Colmet Daage, Sophie Ricci, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Eric Servat, Cécile Llovel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Mediterranean meso-scale river catchments are submitted to extremes floods events linked to intense convective precipitation and local hydrologic features (karst, soil moisture, land use).The Mediterranean region is known to be one of the most affected areas by global warming, and it is likely that changes can be expected in the hydrological cycle. The aim of this study is to assess the climate change impacts on extreme precipitation events using a so-called “futurization” method, in which a transfer function is built by comparing the quantiles of distribution for both present and future climate precipitation. A number of historical flood events, previously …

Informing Adaptive Strategies For The Colorado Basin, David Groves, Robert Lempert, Jordan Fischbach, Evan Bloom

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Colorado River is the single most important source of water in the southwestern United States, providing water and power for nearly 40 million people and water to irrigate more than five million acres of farmland across seven states and for 22 Native American tribes. A vast physical and institutional infrastructure exists to provide water, as well as hydropower, recreational opportunities, environmental services, and other benefits to all these users. However, increasing demand, a decade of drought, and expectations of a significantly changing future climate have put the system under significant and deeply uncertain stress. This paper employs and extends …

Water Resource Management With The Management Software Manuela, Monika Von Haaren

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The impact of climate change with increasing droughts will lead to an increase of water consumption in agriculture. Even in Germany, agricultural land is already irrigated intensively to secure harvests at a higher level. The demand for additional irrigation will lead to conflicts between agriculture, water management and nature conservation. This paper shows a new way for the evaluation of water use in agricultural farming. With the developed method stakeholder can assess the water consumption for irrigation in agriculture, which is transferable, regionally applicable and comparable. The water-module is available as a new plug-in in the management software MANUELA and …

Modelling Adaptive Behaviour In Spatial Agent-­Based Models: Coastal Cities And Climate Change, Tatiana Filatova, Erik Horstman, Suzanne J.M.H. Hulscher, Ju-­Sung Lee, Johan De Waard

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A major part of world population lives in coastal and delta areas threatened by adverse consequences of climate change (increasing probabilities or severity of floods and hurricanes). It might lead to a forced displacement of up to 187 million people in coastal zones. Still, exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas rapidly escalate due to the clustering of population and growth of property values in flood-­prone areas. Land markets driven by individual location preferences are crucial in the formation of spatial patterns of activities and the economic value they receive. Under the conditions of uncertainty where probabilistic disasters and rich amenities …

Explicit Cost Accounting For Adaptation, Mitigation And Ecosystem Service Provision In Agriculture, Franz Sinabell, Karin Heinschink, Christoph Tribl

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Farmers, policy makers and scientists are well aware of this problem: obtaining sound cost information for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture or ecosystem service provision by agriculture is burdensome. In most cases, data sets are developed for a specific region with a given set of management variants for a baseline period. Adapting such information to another region or adjusting costs to expected future price scenarios requires additional efforts and frequently done an ad-hoc and case by case. A new tool is presented that can be used to identify and analyze the entangled effects of future climate and …

Autoflow© - A Novel Application For Water Resource Management And Climate Change Response Using Smart Technology, Khoi Anh Nguyen, Oz Sahin, Rodney Anthony Stewart, Hong Zhang

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Several analysis platforms have been developed worldwide to help effectively control and response to these impacts from different angles, including water resources management, energy production and consumption management, air pollution control, or other natural resources management. To contribute to this goal, Griffith University in Australia has developed Autoflow^©, a smart application for water demand analysis and carbon emission monitoring and prediction. Various advanced mathematical models have been …

Hydrological Water Resources Assessment Of Cega-Eresma-Adaja Watershed System Using Swat Model, David A. Rivas, Angel De Miguel, Bárbara Willarts

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In the hydrological assessment of water bodies, modeling is a key fact in water management strategies of watersheds and serves as a tool for decision making considering environmental issues as the core of sustainable development in the region. In this direction, SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to assess the water availability related with agricultural management in the watersheds of the tributary rivers Cega, Eresma and Adaja of Duero’s River in Spain both in the current and future climate change scenarios. To define the HRUs, land use maps from remote-sensing processes were used, extracting the agricultural uses …

A Systems Approach To Modelling The Effects Of Climate Change On Agroforestry: A Case Study In Western Tanzania, Elaine M. Samuel

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Climate change is anticipated to have significant effects on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa as the magnitude of weather events increase in severity. Smallholder farmers in western Tanzania are potentially vulnerable to climate change impact as crops rely on precipitation as the only source of water. It is prudent to evaluate different modes of agricultural adaptations, such as agroforestry, that these farmers can easily adopt to improve their resiliency to the effects of climate change. System dynamics modelling is a cost-effective tool to simulate the long-term behaviour of agroforestry systems under future climate conditions. Water, Nutrient, and Light Capture in …

Coupled Simulation Of Human-Driven And Natural Land Cover Change In The Front Range Corridor, Co, Zhihua Liu, Michael C. Wimberly, Aashis Lamsal, Terry L. Sohl, Todd J. Hawbaker

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Colorado Front Range Corridor is a mixture of urban, agricultural, grassland, and diverse forest types, making it an ideal natural laboratory to investigate feedbacks and interactions of coupled human and natural systems. We explored future scenarios of human-driven land use change and natural vegetation dynamics using the CHANGE model, which integrates a demand-allocation land use change module, a succession module for natural vegetation dynamics, and a spatially explicit fire initiation and spread module. We used the model to project landscape change over an approximately 48000 km² study area from 2005 through 2050 under A2 and B1 emission scenarios. …

An Overview Of The Nevada Climate Change Portal, Sergiu Dascalu, Frederick C. Harris Jr., Michael Mcmahon Jr., Eric Fritzinger, Scotty Strachan, Richard Kelley

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Created with support from an NSF EPSCoR Research Infrastructure Improvement (RII) grant completed in 2013, the Nevada Climate Change Portal (NCCP) serves as a cyberinfrastructure hub that provides data and computing resources for scientists studying the effects of climate change in Nevada. In particular, the NCCP has been designed for data acquisition, storage, access, and processing in support of long-term assessment of climate variability in Nevada and its impact on the state’s ecological and hydrological systems. The NCCP also serves as a central repository of climate-related information for other stakeholders, including educators, students, and the public. In this paper we …

An Integrative Modeling Framework To Evaluate Wheat Production Systems: Fusarium Head Blight, Willingthon Pavan, José Maurício Cunha Fernandes, Alexandre Lazzaretti, Josué Toebe, Jorge Luis Bavaresco, Alex C. Ruane, Rodrigo Yoiti Tsukahara

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This paper describes a practical, integrated, web-based and user friendly analysis tool for crop model users that provides quality control of input data, tracks user selections in model parameterization, and enables visual analysis of model outcomes using a single graphical user interface. This allows the user to undertake numerous steps in crop modeling and analysis in a seamless and integrated environment. The analysis and visualization components of the system were enabled utilizing R (pl/r) and the robustness of the underlying data structures and coupling point between crop and disease models were achieved through use of PostgreSQL database management system. The …

Climate Change Impact On Flood Hazard In The Grand River Basin, Ontario, Canada, Abhishek Gaur

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Rapidly changing climatic conditions across the globe are believed to have an impact on key climate variables and the hydrologic cycle. Changes in magnitude and frequency of peak flow patterns have been noted in rivers worldwide. The associated risk is projected to increase many folds during the 21^st century. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify these impacts for effective water resource planning and management in future. Methodology chosen to do so should be able to capture variations in climate variables at fine temporal, spatial and distributional scales. Also, it should be able to cover uncertainties associated with future climatic, …

Uncertainty Estimation Of Extreme Precipitations Under Climate Change: A Non-Parametric Approach, Tarana A. Solaiman

Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Repository

Assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology at watershed scale incorporates (a) downscaling of global scale climatic variables into local scale hydrologic variables and (b) assessment of future hydrologic extremes. Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCM) are designed to simulate time series of future climate responses accounting for human induced green house gas emissions. The present study addresses the following limitations of climate change impact research: (i) limited availability of observed historical information; (ii) limited research on the detection of changes in hydrologic extremes; and (iii) coarse spatio-temporal resolution of AOGCMs for use at regional or local scale. Downscaled output from …

Preserving Assets In At-Risk Municipalities: Financial Strategies For Climate Change Adaptation, New England Environmental Finance Center

Climate Change

A large share of America's population, businesses and economic activity now occurs in coastal areas. At the same time, during this century many coastal communities are likely to be severely impacted by sea level rise and increased storm surge and tidal flooding.

“What to do” about this vulnerability is the subject of this brief. It is intended to help municipalities identify courses of action and steps they might take toward increasing their resilience, especially regarding financial resources that will need to be allocated toward the various strategies identified.