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The Effect Of Recovery On Modeling Inactivation Of Bacillus Spores On Hvac Filters, Bharathi Murali, Jade Mitchell Jun 2014

The Effect Of Recovery On Modeling Inactivation Of Bacillus Spores On Hvac Filters, Bharathi Murali, Jade Mitchell

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The ability of microorganisms to persist on fomite surfaces is an important component in modeling their spread in physical environment. For example, Bacillus anthracis (Ba) spores have been found to be extremely resistant to inactivation, environmental stresses, and stable over decades. Modeling the inactivation of spores could form an integral element for estimating the exposure and the subsequent health risks posed by them. However, there is a knowledge gap in the quantification of recovery of Bacillus spores on porous surfaces, which may have a significant effect on the quantification of their persistence in the environment. Our work investigates the recovery …


An Environmental Modeling Language For Agents And Fields, Kor De Jong, Merijn De Bakker, Derek Karssenberg Jun 2014

An Environmental Modeling Language For Agents And Fields, Kor De Jong, Merijn De Bakker, Derek Karssenberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Environmental modeling involves manipulating environmental attributes represented in soft­ware by agents, fields or both, but most modeling environments are designed to be especially useful for either agent-based or field-based modeling. Agent-based and field-based modeling environments have different properties with respect to their ease of use and how well both agents and fields can be represented and manipulated. Most agent-based modeling environments require the modeler to use a general purpose object oriented programming language like Java to express models, while field-based modeling environments often implement a high level, domain specific imperative language based on map algebra, or extent a general purpose …


Gis-Based Environmental Modeling With Tangible Interaction And Dynamic Visualization, Anna Petrasova, Brendan Harmon, Vaclav Petras, Helena Mitasova Jun 2014

Gis-Based Environmental Modeling With Tangible Interaction And Dynamic Visualization, Anna Petrasova, Brendan Harmon, Vaclav Petras, Helena Mitasova

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We present a new, affordable version of TanGeoMS, a tangible geospatial modeling and visualization system designed for collaboratively exploring how terrain change impacts landscape pro­ cesses. It couples a physical, three-dimensional model of a landscape with geospatial modeling and analysis through a cycle of scanning and projection. Multiple users can modify the physical model by hand while it is being scanned; by sculpting the model they generate input for modeling of geophysical processes. The modeling results are then visualized by projecting images or animations back on the physical model. This feedback loop is an intuitive way to evaluate the impacts …


Metadata For Describing Water Models, Mohamed M. Morsy, Jonathan L. Goodall, Christina Bandaragoda, Anthony M. Castronova, Jane Greenberg Jun 2014

Metadata For Describing Water Models, Mohamed M. Morsy, Jonathan L. Goodall, Christina Bandaragoda, Anthony M. Castronova, Jane Greenberg

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Computer models are widely used in hydrology and water resources management. A large variety of models exist, each tailored to address specific challenges related to hydrologic science and water resources management. When scientists and engineers apply one of these models to address a specific question, they must devote significant effort to set up, calibrate, and evaluate that model instance built for some place and time. In many cases, there is a benefit to sharing these computer models and associated datasets with the broader scientific community. Core to model reuse in any context is metadata describing the model. A standardized metadata …


Engaging Australian Surf Lifesaving In Coastal Hazard And Climate Change Adaptation With Stakeholder Driven Modelling, Marcello Sono, Russell G. Richards, Oz Sahin, Shauna Sherker, Rodger Tomlinson Jun 2014

Engaging Australian Surf Lifesaving In Coastal Hazard And Climate Change Adaptation With Stakeholder Driven Modelling, Marcello Sono, Russell G. Richards, Oz Sahin, Shauna Sherker, Rodger Tomlinson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Australia's beaches, an iconic playground and social hub for coastal communities, are threatened by coastal hazards and by the impacts of climate change. In particular, Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA) has assets, facilities and personnel exposed to coastal hazards and climate change, including numerous surf life saving clubs (SLSCs), which can impact its capacity of providing beach and water safety for Australian beaches. This research employed a range of methods to identify climate change adaptation options and to identify mechanisms to enhance adaptive capacity, combining a range of system-oriented, stakeholder-based techniques, including system thinking conceptual modelling, structural analysis, system dynamics …


An Integrated Approach For Including Social Capacities, And Economic Valuation In Risk Assessment Of Water Related Hazards In Uncertain Scenarios, Carlo Giupponi, Vahid Mojtahed, Animesh K. Gain, Stefano Balbi, Claudio Biscaro Jun 2014

An Integrated Approach For Including Social Capacities, And Economic Valuation In Risk Assessment Of Water Related Hazards In Uncertain Scenarios, Carlo Giupponi, Vahid Mojtahed, Animesh K. Gain, Stefano Balbi, Claudio Biscaro

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

We propose a conceptual framework, KR-FWK (i.e. KULTURisk Framework from the name of the European project within which it originated) and its implementation methods SERRA (Socio-Economic Regional Risk Assessment) for integrated (physical and economical) risk assessment, and economic valuation of risk prevention benefits on multiple receptors. The KR-FWK and the SERRA approach are characterised by: (i) integration of physical-environmental dimensions and the socio-economic ones in risk assessment; (ii) consideration of the role of social capacities (adaptive and coping capacity) in reducing risk and related costs, (iii) quantitative (even monetary) assessment of risks and of the benefits of risk reduction measures, …


Addressing The Water-Energy-Climate Nexus Conundrum: A Systems Approach, Oz Sahin, Rodney A. Stewart, Russell G. Richards Jun 2014

Addressing The Water-Energy-Climate Nexus Conundrum: A Systems Approach, Oz Sahin, Rodney A. Stewart, Russell G. Richards

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Australia has the highest per capita surface water storage capacity of any country in the world. However, this storage capacity is at the mercy of Australia's rainfall, which is the most variable of any continental region. Recent drought shaved more than 1% off the nation's economy and saw unprecedented widespread water scarcity. In South-East Queensland (SEQ), six consecutive annual drops in storage level forced the introduction of water restrictions, limiting over 2 million citizens to less than 30% of pre-drought per capita usage. Moving forward, forecasts of high population growth and climate change will simultaneously increase water demand and significantly …


Agile Workflows For Climate Impact Risk Assessment Based On The Ci:Grasp Platform And The Jabc Modeling Framework, Samih Al-Areqi, Anna-Lena Lamprecht, Tiziana Margaria, Steffen Kriewald, Dominik Reusser, Markus Wrobel Jun 2014

Agile Workflows For Climate Impact Risk Assessment Based On The Ci:Grasp Platform And The Jabc Modeling Framework, Samih Al-Areqi, Anna-Lena Lamprecht, Tiziana Margaria, Steffen Kriewald, Dominik Reusser, Markus Wrobel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Analyzing and assessing potential impacts of climate change are critical and challenging tasks that require the processing of large and heterogeneous datasets. These analyses are particularly demanding because of the multi-scale and multi-objective nature of environmental modeling for climate change impact assessment. The Climate Impacts: Global and Regional Adaptation Support Platform (ci:grasp) is a web-based climate information service for exploring climate change related information in its geographical context. In this paper, we show how the agile workflow development style supported by the jABC process modeling and execution framework permits us to leverage the processes implemented in the ci:grasp platform to …


Linking Water Resource Network Models To An Open Data Management Platform, Phillipp Meier, Stephen Knox, Julien Harou Jun 2014

Linking Water Resource Network Models To An Open Data Management Platform, Phillipp Meier, Stephen Knox, Julien Harou

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The development of models for complex water resources systems frequently involves cus- tomising model formulations to fit unique institutional or physical problems. Linking existing model components is part of this process. As an alternative to pre-packaged models or building models based on components that comply to the same standard interface we present a model platform where network resource models (water, energy, transport, etc.) are linked to a data manager in a generic way. A modular architecture is achieved using a server for data storage. Clients connecting to the server, called Apps, provide import and export functions from and to various …


Multiscale Spatial Sensitivity Analysis For Agent-Based Modelling Of Coupled Landscape And Aquatic Systems, Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Wei Liu, Daniel B. Kramer, Kendra Spence Cheruvelil, Patricia A. Soranno, Piotr Jankowski, Seda Salap Jun 2014

Multiscale Spatial Sensitivity Analysis For Agent-Based Modelling Of Coupled Landscape And Aquatic Systems, Arika Ligmann-Zielinska, Wei Liu, Daniel B. Kramer, Kendra Spence Cheruvelil, Patricia A. Soranno, Piotr Jankowski, Seda Salap

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Models of coupled landscape and aquatic systems (CLAS) are prone to input uncertainties that vary over space. To address this challenge, we employ a comprehensive model evaluation that: [1] quantifies the variability of model results (uncertainty analysis), and [2] decomposes this variability based on the relative contribution of inputs to identify major drivers in the model (sensitivity analysis). Our study simulates how agricultural land conversion from active to fallow lands reduces nutrient loading to lakes. We employ an agent-based model of farmer decision making coupled with a spatially-explicit biophysical lake model. A number of model inputs are uncertain including: variables …


Managing Agricultural Landscapes For Favouring Ecosystem Services Provided By Biodiversity: A Spatially Explicit Model Of Crop Rotations In The Gama Simulation Platform, Hugo Thierry, Aude Vialatte, Jean-Philippe Choisis, Benoit Gaudou, Claude Monteil Jun 2014

Managing Agricultural Landscapes For Favouring Ecosystem Services Provided By Biodiversity: A Spatially Explicit Model Of Crop Rotations In The Gama Simulation Platform, Hugo Thierry, Aude Vialatte, Jean-Philippe Choisis, Benoit Gaudou, Claude Monteil

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The need to reduce the use of pesticides in agricultural ecosystems requires studying and developing new pest regulation methods. Individual-based models are useful to better understand how dynamics of insects interact with agricultural landscapes and to study the potential effects of alternative regulation methods, taking into account the spatial and temporal stochasticity of agricultural ecosystems caused by human management. Crop rotations and crop phenology have an important impact on the life cycles of populations of insects. We developed an individual-based model simulating the dynamics of an agricultural landscape from GIS data. The spatiotemporal stochasticity is simulated using typical landcover rotations …


Defining The Spatiotemporal Surveillance Space For Alien Species' Invasions Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, Grant Hamilton, Rune Rasmussen, Jana Mullerova, Jan Pergl, Petr Pysek Jun 2014

Defining The Spatiotemporal Surveillance Space For Alien Species' Invasions Using Approximate Bayesian Computation, Grant Hamilton, Rune Rasmussen, Jana Mullerova, Jan Pergl, Petr Pysek

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species invasion across a real landscape are typically complex. While surveillance is an essential part of a management response, planning surveillance in space and time present a difficult challenge due to this complexity. We show here a method for determining the highest probability sites for occupancy across a landscape at an arbitrary point in the future, based on occupancy data from a single slice in time. We apply to the method to the invasion of Giant Hogweed, a serious weed in the Czech republic and throughout Europe.


The Data Processing Inequality And Environmental Model Prediction, Steven V. Weijs Jun 2014

The Data Processing Inequality And Environmental Model Prediction, Steven V. Weijs

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Prediction in environmental systems, such as hydrological streamflow prediction, is a challenging task. Although on a small scale, many of the physical processes are well described, accurate predictions of macroscopical (e.g. catchment scale) behavior with a bottom-up mechanistic approach often remains elusive. On the other hand, conceptual or purely statistical models fitted to data often perform surprisingly well for prediction. The data processing inequality, from the field of information theory, says that processing data with statistical procedures can only decrease, and not increase the information content of the data. This seems to contradict the intuition that our knowledge of physical …