Models and Methods Commons^™

Voter Turnout In A Low Interest, Off-Year Election: A Field Experiment, Zachary Miller

Mahurin Honors College Capstone Experience/Thesis Projects

This thesis is an analysis on the effects of a low cost get out the vote (GOTV) effort through direct mail on a low interest, off year election. By conducting a field experiment divided into two stages, this project measures the effects of direct mail contact on voter turnout in the state of Kentucky. Postcards were sent during the final week of both the 2015 primary and general elections. The expectation is that those who received a postcard will be more likely to vote than non-recipients. Using data provided by the Kentucky Board of Elections, a data set was created …

The Fate Of Armed Resistance Groups After Peace, David C. Williams

Indiana Journal of Constitutional Design

No abstract provided.

Familiarity Bias: Examining A Cognitive-Affective Mechanism Underlying Ideological Support For The Status Quo, John C. Blanchar

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

It is well established that people like familiarity over novelty. Because that which is most familiar is frequently indicative of the way things are, favoring familiarity should create a psychological advantage for the status quo. In two studies, I tested the hypothesis that familiarity bias—susceptibility to the mere-exposure effect whereby attitude objects receive increasingly favorable evaluations due to repeated sensory experience—is foundational to ideological support for the status quo. In Study 1, individual variation in familiarity bias predicted greater Right-Wing Authoritarianism. Existential threat was experimentally manipulated via the salience of international terrorism in Study 2, but was unsuccessful due to …

Best Practices For Self-Exclusion Reinstatement And Renewal, Alex Price

International Conference on Gambling & Risk Taking

While many studies have examined self-exclusion few have focused on the processes through which gamblers return at the end of their agreements. In 2014, the RGC Centre for the Advancement of Best Practices examined voluntary self-exclusion reinstatement and renewal in an effort to develop evidence-informed best-practices for both land-based and online gambling operations. The presentation outlines the findings of the study and the recommended best practices for reintegration and ban renewal.

The study examined a range of practices around the world. In the end the study recommended an active reinstatement process in which all participants are required to apply to …

An Epistemic Justification For Voting, Julia Maskivker

Faculty Publications

Received wisdom in most democracies is that voting should be seen as a political freedom that citizens have a right to exercise or not to exercise. But would liberal democracies be any less liberal if voting were seen as a duty? Contrasting the libertarian argument against the moral duty to vote, this paper proposes that we have a duty to vote well – with knowledge and a sense of impartiality. The obligation is one among many instantiations of a natural duty to promote and support just institutions in society. The paper links justice with democratic epistemic virtues to ground the …

Policy Options To Mitigate Cigarette Filter Litter In California, Max Wechsler

Master's Projects and Capstones

Approximately 16.2 billion cellulose acetate cigarette filters are littered in California annually. Cigarette filter litter (CFL) creates an annual financial burden of over $1.27 billion for California. CFL also poses unquantifiable damages to human and environmental health in the form of ingestion, toxicity, formation into microplastics, and quality of life degradation. These costs and damages warrant the adoption of policy measures in order to mitigate CFL. Cigarette taxes and fees raise government revenue, but they are politically challenging due to California Proposition 26. Locational smoking bans encourage anti-smoking cultural norms and may decrease consumption, although indoor smoking bans may increase …

“Bracketing” Foreign Policy From Domestic Affairs: A New Paradigm For International Negotiation And Decision-Making, Scott Gerschwer Ph.D.

Journal of Interdisciplinary Conflict Science

This paper argues that geo-political negotiators must separate domestic issues from their calculations and consider only strategic goals and international concerns when working through issues with other global leaders. The impetus for this paper is a recent poll that shows that 52% of Americans want to bomb Iran, apparently without considering the consequences. I will give some history, present some recent cases and attempt to create a mechanism for separating international and domestic issues to relieve a source of pressure on negotiators.

Crowd-Sourced Text Analysis: Reproducible And Agile Production Of Political Data, Kenneth Benoit, Drew Conway, Benjamin E. Lauderdale, Michael Laver, Slava Mikhaylov

Research Collection School of Social Sciences

Empirical social science often relies on data that are not observed in the field, but are transformed into quantitative variables by expert researchers who analyze and interpret qualitative raw sources. While generally considered the most valid way to produce data, this expert-driven process is inherently difficult to replicate or to assess on grounds of reliability. Using crowd-sourcing to distribute text for reading and interpretation by massive numbers of nonexperts, we generate results comparable to those using experts to read and interpret the same texts, but do so far more quickly and flexibly. Crucially, the data we collect can be reproduced …

The Saltwater Theory: A Directed Study Of Failed Revolutions, James Gulliksen

Student Works

From the Second World War to date, social scientists who study revolutions have engaged in a pivot from initially focusing on the conditions of the state to a more actor-centric model. In their eyes, the actors (revolutionaries, political parties, foreign nations) within a sphere decide a path for political change, rather than the existing conditions (political rights, economic conditions, repression, etc.) in the same environment. This essay counters this thinking by introducing a Saltwater Theory to explain how different forms of uprisings (the same as different species of animals) can survive in some environments but not others. Additionally, the paper …

Hostage At The Table By George Kohlrieser: A Critical Book Review, Bimal Dahal, Muhammad Ilyas, Erika Krajcovicova, Myriam Marcuello-Lopez, Abdulah Saleh, Shadi Sheikh Saraf

Journal of Interdisciplinary Conflict Science

Being a hostage impedes. One must strive to get out of the hostage mindset and situation to realize peace. This review analyzes George Kohlrieser's approaches from peacebuilding perspective.

George Kohlrieser is a professor of leadership and organizational behavior, psychologist, and veteran hostage negotiator. In his book Hostage at the Table, he contends that conflict resolution is not difficult if we understand how human self-esteem operates. He believes that deep within humans reside slumbering powers that most of us do not even activate. These latent powers can revolutionize our lives if aroused and put into action.

In the following pages, …

The West And The Rest Of Us: Islamic Militancy, Refugee Crisis And The Migration Wave Towards Europe, Simeon Onyemachi Hilary Alozieuwa Ph.D.

Journal of Interdisciplinary Conflict Science

The recent migration wave to Europe from the Arab world thrusts to the fore for serious discourse, an issue the world has hitherto shied away from: the gradual Islamization of the world beginning with the west. The issue is not the Islamic faith itself. Certain elements of the faithful are imbued with hegemonic-domination tendencies marked by the excessive obsession to obliterate others’ cultures. This paper views the Euro/West-ward movement of the Muslim Arab refugees/migrants as a grand strategy for the Islamization agenda; the smuggled Islamists militias are its foot-soldiers. The West needs to interrogate its overextended human rights regimes.

The Ombatse Crisis In Nigeria: Background, Recent Developments And Possible Solutions, Simeon Onyemachi Hilary Alozieuwa Ph.D.

Journal of Interdisciplinary Conflict Science

This paper focuses on the hegemonic politics between the Eggon and Hausa/Fulani ethnic groups in Nasarawa, North-Central Nigeria, which eventually erupted into the Ombatse crisis of May 2013- a precursor to the 2015 general elections. It addresses four research questions seeking to unravel whether or not: (1a) the crisis truly reflects a spiritual revivalist agenda as projected by the Ombatse promoters or merely espouses Eggon rejection of Muslim-Hausa/Fulani ethnic hegemony- mirroring broadly the identity, hegemonic and exclusionary politics in the area cum the larger Nigerian society;(b) the Eggon-Hausa-Fulani feud has the potential to exacerbate the sectarian strife in Nigeria’s northern …

Predicting Genocide And Mass Atrocities, Ernesto Verdeja

Genocide Studies and Prevention: An International Journal

This article examines several current risk assessment and early warning models to predict genocide and mass atrocities. Risk assessment (RA) concerns a country’s long­-term structural conditions (regime type, state-led discrimination, etc.) that determine overall risk for atrocities. Early warning (EW) focuses on short/midterm dynamics that can serve as triggers. The article evaluates contemporary RA and EW forecast modeling, and asks: How well can we predict mass atrocities and genocide? What are the strengths and limitations to current predictive modeling? Part I examines several quantitative (statistical) RA models and identifies several strengths and limitations in current research. Part II investigates a …

Political Psychology (Annotated Bibliography), Ingrid J. Haas

Department of Political Science: Faculty Publications

The field of political psychology explains political behavior as a function of both individual- and group-level psychological processes. While the field is interdisciplinary, political psychologists tend to work in either psychology or political science departments. Although the overall aim is often similar, researchers from each discipline approach the same questions in different ways, and interested scholars are encouraged to examine literatures from both fields. The general approach to research is to focus on individual political attitudes, emotion, beliefs, and behavior, and attempt to explain these phenomena using psychological research and theory. Historical approaches to research in this field often relied …

The Hermeneutics Of International Trade Conflicts: U.S. Punitive Trade Policy Towards China And Japan, Barry F. Murdaco

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation analyzes punitive trade conflicts between the U.S. and two trading partners: China and Japan. Punitive trade conflicts can be defined as trade wars between two states, retaliatory tariffs, or other forms of conflict, e.g. preventing the acquisition of foreign assets or sanctions for an undervalued exchange rate. I will examine several trade conflicts between the U.S. and Japan in the 1980s and several trade conflicts between the U.S. and China from 2001 to the present. This study is situated within a larger debate concerning the resolution of four theoretical "puzzles" in political science. The first concerns the dispute …

Rethinking Linkage To The West: What Authoritarian Stability In Singapore Tells Us, Su-Mei Ooi

Scholarship and Professional Work - LAS

Recent regime change literatures compellingly assert that linkage to the West has been a significant factor in democratisation where the organisational capacity of authoritarian incumbents has overwhelmingly weakened pro-democracy forces. Detailed case studies confirming these findings have not included Singapore although high levels of linkage to the West suggest that democratisation should have taken place there. This qualitative case study fills the empirical and theoretical gap by explaining why linkage has so far failed to raise the cost of authoritarianism for Singapore's government. By eschewing the current structural approach, which conceptualises linkage as mere channels of external pressure or influence, …

Using Mavt To Incorporate Public Perception When Choosing A Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Stephen Clement

Theses and Dissertations

Nuclear energy is a source of carbon free power. With many countries striving to make deep carbon cuts in their energy sectors, nuclear energy could be a large part of the solution. One of the main obstacles standing in the way of the use of nuclear energy is the issue of used nuclear fuel disposal. According to the NEI, the U.S. creates about 2000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel per year and has generated around 76,000 metric tons of used nuclear fuel over the last 4 decades. While there are technical problems that need to be solved, it is …

"I Voted": Examining The Impact Of Compulsory Voting On Voter Turnout, Nina A. Kamath

CMC Senior Theses

Over the past few decades, falling voter turnout rates have induced governments to adopt compulsory voting laws, in order to mitigate issues such as the socioeconomic voter gap and to bring a broader spectrum of voters into the fold. This paper presents evidence that the introduction of mandatory voting laws increases voter turnout rates by 13 points within a particular country through an entity- and time-fixed effect panel model. Moreover, it includes a discussion of the implications of adopting mandatory voting policies within the United States, finding that compelling citizens to vote would have increased participation rates to over 90 …

The Long Shadow Of Bush V. Gore: Judicial Partisanship In Election Cases, Michael S. Kang, Joanna M. Shepherd

Faculty Articles

Bush v. Gore decided a presidential election and is the most dramatic election case in our lifetime, but cases like it are decided every year at the state level. Ordinary state courts regularly decide questions of election rules and administration that effectively determine electoral outcomes hanging immediately in the balance. Election cases like Bush v. Gore embody a fundamental worry with judicial intervention into the political process: outcome-driven, partisan judicial decisionmaking. The Article investigates whether judges decide cases, particularly politically sensitive ones, based on their partisan loyalties more than the legal merits of the cases. It presents a novel method …

Marriage On The Ballot: An Analysis Of Same-Sex Marriage Referendums In North Carolina, Minnesota, And Washington During The 2012 Elections, Craig M. Burnett, Mathew D. Mccubbins

Faculty Scholarship

No abstract provided.