Terrorism Studies Commons^™

Evolving Patterns Of Violence In Developing Countries, Brian Michael Jenkins, Bruce R. Butterworth, Sachi Yagu

Mineta Transportation Institute

In August 2022, MTI issued a report entitled Changing Patterns of Violence Pose New Challenges to Public Surface Transportation in the United States. That report analyzed the frequency and lethality of attacks on public surface transport in economically advanced countries. But what has been going on in non-economically advanced countries – the vast majority of countries in the world? Using the MTI database of Terrorist and Serious Criminal Attacks Against Public Surface Transportation, the authors analyzed attacks against passenger trains and train stations, buses and bus stations and stops, and all rail infrastructure and operating and security personnel in both …

Terrorism Hazard And Infrastructure Projects: The Moderating Role Of Home Experience And Institutions, Alfredo Jiménez, Nathaniel C. Lupton

Faculty Research, Scholarly, and Creative Activity

This paper analyzes the impact of terrorism hazard on the performance of private participation infrastructure projects. Applying transaction cost theory, we hypothesize that terrorism hazard has a negative relationship with infrastructure project completion, and that host government accountability and investor experience with terrorism hazard have opposing impacts on this relationship. Host government accountability, we argue, produces higher indirect costs of managing terrorism hazard, which reduces investor confidence, and reinforces the negative relationship between terrorism hazard and the probability of satisfactory project completion. Conversely, investor’s experience with terrorism hazard increases investor confidence and hence partially mitigates the negative consequences of terrorism …

Transportation, Terrorism And Crime: Deterrence, Disruption And Resilience, Daniel C. Goodrich, Frances L. Edwards

Mineta Transportation Institute

Abstract: Terrorists likely have adopted vehicle ramming as a tactic because it can be carried out by an individual (or “lone wolf terrorist”), and because the skills required are minimal (e.g. the ability to drive a car and determine locations for creating maximum carnage). Studies of terrorist activities against transportation assets have been conducted to help law enforcement agencies prepare their communities, create mitigation measures, conduct effective surveillance and respond quickly to attacks.

This study reviews current research on terrorist tactics against transportation assets, with an emphasis on vehicle ramming attacks. It evaluates some of the current attack strategies, and …

“Smashing Into Crowds” -- An Analysis Of Vehicle Ramming Attacks, Brian Michael Jenkins, Bruce R. Butterworth

Mineta Transportation Institute

Vehicle ramming attacks are not new. But since 2010 Jihadists have urged their use. Is this the wave of the future, or a terrorist fad? To answer this and other questions the authors expanded and updated the database used in their May 2018 MTI Security Perspective entitled An Analysis of Vehicle Ramming as a Terrorist Threat to include 184 attacks since January 1, 1970. They also reviewed literature and examined some cases in detail. This MTI Security perspective indicates that while not new, vehicle rammings are more frequent and lethal since 2014, although the number of attacks seems to be …

An Exploration Of Transportation Terrorist Stabbing Attacks, Brian Michael Jenkins, Bruce R. Butterworth, Jean-François Clair, Joseph R. Trella Iii

Mineta Transportation Institute

In his August 22, 2018 message to supporters of the Islamic State of Iraq and [greater] Syria (ISIS), Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi implored ISIS fighters in Syria and Iraq as well as those on various jihadist fronts in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia not to be dismayed by military setbacks suffered by the Islamic State, but to continue fighting, confident that Allah would ultimately reward those who remained steadfast with victory. In the same message, he exhorted homegrown jihadists abroad— “the fierce lions in the lands of the Cross—Canada, Europe, and elsewhere” to carry out simple attacks within their limited …

Does “See Something, Say Something” Work?, Brian Michael Jenkins, Bruce R. Butterworth

Mineta Transportation Institute

Do “See Something, Say Something” programs work? The evidence strongly suggests that in the specific case of public surface transportation, the answer is “yes.” Transport staff and passengers play an important role in the prevention of terrorist attacks. By discovering and reporting suspicious objects, they have prevented more than 10 percent of all terrorist attacks on public surface transportation. Detection rates are even better in the economically advanced countries where more than 14 percent of the attempts are detected—and have been improving. This MTI Security Perspective analyzes detections since 1970 and suggests that “See Something, Say Something” campaigns are worthwhile.

Train Wrecks And Track Attacks: An Analysis Of Attempts By Terrorists And Other Extremists To Derail Trains Or Disrupt Rail Transportation, Brian Michael Jenkins, Bruce R. Butterworth

Mineta Transportation Institute

Attempts to sabotage rails and deliberately derail passenger trains have a long history in conventional and guerrilla warfare as well as during some particularly bitter labor disputes in the past. Since the 1970s, political fanatics have become a major adversary. Terrorists have sought to derail trains to achieve high-casualty events, while anarchists and issue oriented extremists have attacked rails to attract attention to their causes and impose economic damage. In this report, we examine the more than a thousand attempts to derail trains and to attack rail infrastructure to discern overall patterns and trends. We then look at four subsets …

An Analysis Of Vehicle Ramming As A Terrorist Threat, Brian Michael Jenkins, Bruce R. Butterworth

Mineta Transportation Institute

Ramming attacks in which drivers deliberately plow their vehicles into public gatherings, pedestrians, or bicyclists, have become an increasingly common terrorist tactic. This MTI Security Perspective, by Brian Michael Jenkins and Bruce R. Butterworth analyzes 78 vehicular attacks between January 1973 and April 2018. According to their analysis, it is a growing trend, and a frightening one. The 78 attacks led to 281 deaths and around 1,200 injuries. Sixteen attacks took place between 1973 and 2007, while 62 took place between 2008 and April 2018. Thirty of these occurred in 2017 and the first four months of 2018 alone.

The Challenge Of Protecting Transit And Passenger Rail: Understanding How Security Works Against Terrorism, Brian Michael Jenkins

Mineta Transportation Institute

Terrorists see transit and passenger rail as an attractive target. Designed for public convenience, trains and stations offer terrorists easy access to crowds of people in confined environments where there are minimal security risks and attacks can cause high casualties. This report examines the unique attributes of the terrorist threat, how security measures against terrorism have evolved over the years, and their overall effectiveness.

Does security work? Empirical evidence is hard to come by. Terrorist incidents are statistically rare and random, making it difficult to discern effects. The fact that terrorists focus most of their attacks on targets with little …