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Center for Policy Research

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Full-Text Articles in Public Policy

Patterns Of Time Use Of People Age 55 To 64 Years Old: Some Cross-National Comparisons, Anne H. Gauthier, Timothy M. Smeeding Mar 2000

Patterns Of Time Use Of People Age 55 To 64 Years Old: Some Cross-National Comparisons, Anne H. Gauthier, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

Objectives. This paper examines the patterns of time use of adults age 55 to 64 years old in six countries: Austria, Canada, Finland, Italy, Sweden, and the United States. It examines the discontinuity in daily activities by employment status and gender. Methods. The paper uses nationally representative samples from time use surveys carried out in each country. We compute aggregate patterns of time use by employment status and gender for seven categories of activities: personal activities, paid work, unpaid work, housework, social leisure, active leisure, and passive leisure. We also compute dissimilarity indices to measure the degree of discontinuity in …

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Shrinking Kin Networks In Italy Due To Sustained Low Fertility, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf Dec 1999

Shrinking Kin Networks In Italy Due To Sustained Low Fertility, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

Among the closely watched demographic trends of the late 20th Century is a pronounced drop in fertility rates throughout much of the world. Italy presents a particularly interesting case for study: in 1960, Italy’s total fertility rate (TFR) was 2.41; by 1995 it had fallen to 1.17. According to United Nations projections, by 2050 Italy will be the second oldest country in the world, with 3.4 persons aged 60 or older for each person under age 15. Besides overall population aging, another implication of sustained low fertility is smaller families and kin groups. We investigate the consequences of projected changes …

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Employee-Based Versus Employer-Based Subsidies To Low-Wage Workers: A Public Finance Perspective, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Apr 1999

Employee-Based Versus Employer-Based Subsidies To Low-Wage Workers: A Public Finance Perspective, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

We revisit the relative merits of employee-based versus employer-based labor market subsidies. While conventional analyses stress the equivalence of these approaches, we find a modest preference for employee-based approaches. Because the population of low-wage workers overlaps, but is not identical to, the populations of low-skill or low-income workers, simple employer-based approaches are likely to be poorly targeted. Targeting may be improved by identification of eligible workers, but identification itself raises the possibility of detrimental stigma associated with the program. When combined with lower participation rates among firms than among households, the size of employer-based subsidies needed to match the outcome …

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Exploring The Effect Of Welfare Reform Implementation On The Attainment Of Policy Goals: An Examination Of Michigan's Counties, Jodi Sandfort Apr 1999

Exploring The Effect Of Welfare Reform Implementation On The Attainment Of Policy Goals: An Examination Of Michigan's Counties, Jodi Sandfort

Center for Policy Research

This paper presents a cross-sectional examination of the implementation conditions within Michigan during the first year following the passage of federal welfare reform. It asks the question, “Do implementation factors in the welfare system quantitatively influence the achievement of public policy goals?” Drawing on data from 82 counties, this analysis provides an exploratory, multivariate model that controls for environmental factors outside of the influence of program implementers and examines the effects of macro- and micro-implementation conditions on an outcome desired by policy reforms. The results suggest that implementation factors do have a statistically discernible relationship to proportion of a county’s …

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Stability And Change In The Living Arrangements Of Older Italian Women, 1990-1995, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf Apr 1999

Stability And Change In The Living Arrangements Of Older Italian Women, 1990-1995, Cecilia Tomassini, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

In this work we analyze the living arrangements of elderly unmarried women in Italy. We use data from three surveys, collected in 1990, 1994, and 1995 by the Italian statistical agency ISTAT. We consider unmarried women aged 65 and older, and three household types (living alone, with children, or with others), taking into account the availability of children with whom they might share a household. During this period the percentage of elderly living alone fell slightly. We investigate these patterns with a structural analysis based on multinomial models. Results indicate that some individual variables (living in southern Italy, health status) …

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Estimating The Income Effect On Retirement, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, David Joulfaian, Harvey S. Rosen Apr 1999

Estimating The Income Effect On Retirement, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, David Joulfaian, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One of the most important issues in the debate over Social Security is how various changes in the system would change retirement behavior. A critical parameter in this context is the income effect on retirement— how a change in income affects retirement behavior, ceteris paribus. To estimate the income effect, we examine tax-return generated data on the labor force activity of a group of older people before and after they receive inheritances. The results are consistent with the notion that income effects are small. Neither retirement decisions nor the magnitude of earnings conditional on working seem to be affected very …

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A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz Mar 1999

A Time-Series Econometric Model Of The Upstate New York Economy, Donald H. Dutkowsky, James Follain, Seth Giertz

Center for Policy Research

The purpose of the research described in this report is to produce an econometric model of the Upstate New York economy and two metropolitan areas within it—Albany and Syracuse. The model is intended to satisfy three main criteria. First, the model should be capable of capturing the dynamic nature of the local economy. This simply reflects the widely held belief that the local economy’s response to various external forces and policies is unlikely to be immediate. Second, the model ought to be capable of generating short-run forecasts. In particular, quarterly forecasts for one or two years are preferred to long-run …

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Social Protection For The Poor In The Developed World: The Evidence From Lis, Timothy Smeeding, Katherine Ross Jan 1999

Social Protection For The Poor In The Developed World: The Evidence From Lis, Timothy Smeeding, Katherine Ross

Center for Policy Research

This paper presents data and analysis on the antipoverty effectiveness of safety nets in eight rich nations using data from the Luxembourg Income Study (LIS). We find that national safety nets are quite varied and that the most expensive ones (in terms of budgetary cost) are also the most effective. The paper concludes with some suggestions for the construction of effective safety nets in developing nations.

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Traditionality, Modernity, And Household Composition: Parent-Child Coresidence In Contemporary Turkey, Hakan Aykan, Douglas A. Wolf Nov 1998

Traditionality, Modernity, And Household Composition: Parent-Child Coresidence In Contemporary Turkey, Hakan Aykan, Douglas A. Wolf

Center for Policy Research

We investigate the patterns and correlates of currently married adult children’s coresidence with their parents in Turkey, using data from the 1993 Turkish Demographic and Health Survey. We are particularly interested in “traditional” patterns of coresidence—that is, coresidence with one or both of the husband’s parents—and the effects of variables measuring traditionality at the individual and contextual levels on coresidence with any parent, and with the husband’s parents. The results indicate that coresidence among currently married children is not the norm. However, the odds of coresidence with the husband’s parents, given that a couple coresides with any parent, are very …

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Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao Nov 1998

Residential Choices And Prospective Risks Of Nursing Home Entry, Kenneth A. Couch, Duke Kao

Center for Policy Research

Nationally representative estimates of the prospective risk of entry into a nursing home and the likelihood of residing in a nursing home are obtained using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging: 1984-1990. The roles of demographic characteristics, kin availability, and health status in determining entry into and residence in nursing homes is examined. Caregivers facilitate community residence and reduce the risk of nursing home entry for those with functional limitations. Dementia in combination with functional limitations increases the risk of nursing home entry.

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When Random Group Effects Are Cross-Correlated: An Application To Elderly Migration Flow Models, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville Oct 1998

When Random Group Effects Are Cross-Correlated: An Application To Elderly Migration Flow Models, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

Incorporating random group effects has proven important to making correct statistical inferences about factors that only vary across groups. We note that it is possible to have more than one random effect in models using cross-sectional data and that these random effects could be correlated, unlike in the typical panel data situation. Extending the standard multiple random effects model in this way is greatly simplified by using the two-step estimator we develop. Our application to an elderly migration flow model provides an intuitive example of cross-correlated random group effects and demonstrates the ease of our estimator, as well as highlighting …

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Intergenerational Co-Residence And Children's Incomes, Thomas A. Dunn, John W. Phillips Oct 1998

Intergenerational Co-Residence And Children's Incomes, Thomas A. Dunn, John W. Phillips

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines co-residence arrangements between older parents and their adult children. We sketch a model of the co-residence choice that accounts for the preferences of the parent and the child and incorporates parental altruism and demands for housing, goods, and privacy. The model predicts that poorer, unmarried or childless siblings are more likely than their siblings to co-reside. The empirical analysis exploits the information provided by respondents in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old (AHEAD) survey about all of their children living in and outside their household. Indeed, we find that poorer siblings are more likely …

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Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen Oct 1998

Estate Taxes, Life Insurance, And Small Business, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, John W. Phillips, Harvey S. Rosen

Center for Policy Research

One criticism of the estate tax is that it prevents the owners of family businesses from passing their enterprises onto their children. The problem is that it may be difficult to pay estate taxes without liquidating the business. A natural question is why individuals with such concerns do not purchase enough life insurance to meet their estate tax liabilities. This paper examines whether and how people use life insurance to deal with the estate tax. We find that, other things being the same, business owners purchase more life insurance than other individuals. However, on the margin, their insurance purchases are …

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Elderly Migration And State Fiscal Policy: Evidence From The 1990 Census Migration Flows+, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville Aug 1998

Elderly Migration And State Fiscal Policy: Evidence From The 1990 Census Migration Flows+, Karen S. Conway, Andrew J. Houtenville

Center for Policy Research

The elderly’s unique economic situation makes some government expenditures more attractive and some forms of taxation less burdensome than others. This research investigates whether elderly migration is affected by state fiscal policies and discusses the possible consequences, both of which likely differ between younger and older elderly. Using state-to-state migration flows, we identify which states are gaining and losing younger versus older elderly people. We then estimate the migration flows as a function of the states’ amenities, cost of living, composition of government spending and alternative specifications of the tax system. We find that elderly migration is influenced by state …

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Entrepreneurs, Income Taxes, And Investment, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen Jul 1998

Entrepreneurs, Income Taxes, And Investment, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their capital investment decisions. We examine the income tax returns of a sample of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates for the relatively affluent associated with that law affected their decisions to invest in physical capital. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on investment decisions. In our sample, a 5 percentage point increase in marginal tax rates would reduce the proportion of entrepreneurs who make new …

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Horatio Alger Meets The Mobility Tables, Douglas Holt-Eakin, Harvey S. Rosen, Robert Weathers Jul 1998

Horatio Alger Meets The Mobility Tables, Douglas Holt-Eakin, Harvey S. Rosen, Robert Weathers

Center for Policy Research

The question of how entrepreneurship relates to income mobility is cogent given the current public debate about the sources of income inequality and mobility in United States society. We examine how experience with entrepreneurship has affected an individual’s place in the earnings distribution. Our basic tack is to follow individuals’ positions in the income distribution over time, and to see how their mobility (or lack thereof) was affected by involvement with entrepreneurship. Our main finding is that for low-income individuals there is some merit to the notion that the self-employed moved ahead in the earnings distribution relative to those who …

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Income Taxes And Entrepreneurs' Use Of Labor, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen Jul 1998

Income Taxes And Entrepreneurs' Use Of Labor, Robert Carroll, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Mark Rider, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

This paper investigates the effect of entrepreneurs’ personal income tax situations on their use of labor. We analyze the income tax returns of a large number of sole proprietors before and after the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and determine how the substantial reductions in marginal tax rates associated with that law affected their decisions to hire labor and the size of their wage bills. We find that individual income taxes exert a statistically and quantitatively significant influence on the probability that an entrepreneur hires workers. Raising the entrepreneur’s “tax price” (one minus the marginal tax rate) by 10 percent …

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Where Does The Money Come From? The Financing Of Small Entrepreneurial Enterprises, Zsuzsanna Fluck, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen Jul 1998

Where Does The Money Come From? The Financing Of Small Entrepreneurial Enterprises, Zsuzsanna Fluck, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Harvey Rosen

Center for Policy Research

Using data from the Wisconsin Entrepreneurial Climate Study, we study the sources of firms’ finance during the very early stages of their lives. Our focus is the evolution of the mix of financial capital from “insiders” and “outsiders” as firms age. We find that at the beginning of firms’ life cycles, the proportion of funds from internal sources increases with age, while the proportion from banks, venture capitalists, and private investors declines. There is also evidence that these patterns eventually reverse themselves, with the proportion of insider finance ultimately declining and the proportion of outsider finance increasing with age. We …

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Financial Capital, Human Capital, And The Transition To Self-Employment: Evidence From Intergenerational Links, Thomas Dunn, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Jul 1998

Financial Capital, Human Capital, And The Transition To Self-Employment: Evidence From Intergenerational Links, Thomas Dunn, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

The environment for business creation is central to economic policy, as entrepreneurs are believed to be forces of innovation, employment and economic dynamism. We use data from the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) to investigate the relative importance of family financial and human capital in the transition into self-employment. Specifically, we estimate the impacts of own wealth and human capital and parental wealth and self-employment experience on the probability that an individual makes the transition from a wage and salary job to self-employment. We find that young men’s own financial assets exert a statistically significant, but quantitatively modest effect on the …

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Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform And Residential Housing Values, Donald Bruce, Douglas Holtz-Eakin Jul 1998

Apocalypse Now? Fundamental Tax Reform And Residential Housing Values, Donald Bruce, Douglas Holtz-Eakin

Center for Policy Research

Using a simulation model crafted to integrate the short-run and long-term impacts of tax reform on the housing market, we find modest impacts from fundamental reform of the Federal income tax. These results suggest that concerns over the impact of tax reform on housing values and household net worth are overstated. To the extent that reform is otherwise desirable, fears of drastic effects on the housing market should not stand as an impediment to reform. Donald

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Discrimination In Qualitative Actions By Real Estate Brokers, Jan Ondrich, Alex Stricker May 1998

Discrimination In Qualitative Actions By Real Estate Brokers, Jan Ondrich, Alex Stricker

Center for Policy Research

Discrimination occurs when people in a particular class are systematically treated less favorably than other equally qualified people. This study focuses on racial and ethnic discrimination in qualitative actions by real estate brokers, such as showing a customer a housing unit that was advertised in the newspaper. The data come from the Housing Discrimination Study, which conducted over 2,000 fair housing audits of real estate brokers in 25 metropolitan areas in 1989. Each audit consists of a visit to a real estate agency by a white person and either a black or Hispanic person with similar socio-economic characteristics. Using Chamberlain’s …

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The Outlook For Onondaga County's Finances: Baseline Scenario, William Duncombe, Bernard Jump Jr. Aug 1997

The Outlook For Onondaga County's Finances: Baseline Scenario, William Duncombe, Bernard Jump Jr.

Center for Policy Research

This is the third of four reports to the Onondaga Lake Management Conference about the economic and fiscal implications for Onondaga County of court-mandated expenditures for sewer-related remediation of Onondaga Lake.

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How The Fruits Of Growth Were Distributed Among Working-Age Families In The United States And Germany In The 1980s, Richard V. Burkhauser, Amy D. Crews, Mary C. Daly Aug 1997

How The Fruits Of Growth Were Distributed Among Working-Age Families In The United States And Germany In The 1980s, Richard V. Burkhauser, Amy D. Crews, Mary C. Daly

Center for Policy Research

We use cross-sectional and longitudinal data from Germany (Socio-Economic Panel) and the United States (Panel Study on Income Dynamics) to show how the income distribution changed over the 1980s business cycle in these two countries. Consistent with other researchers we find income inequality in the United States increased over the peak years of the 1980s business cycle and that the middle of the income distribution shrank. However, we also find that the great bulk of the disappearing middle shifted to the right— became richer— over the period. Hence, it was disproportionate gains from growth rather than the “immiseration” of the …

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Expensive Children In Poor Families: Out-Of-Pocket Expenditures For The Care Of Disabled And Chronically Ill Children And Welfare Reform, Anna Lukemeyer, Marcia K. Meyers, Timothy M. Smeeding Aug 1997

Expensive Children In Poor Families: Out-Of-Pocket Expenditures For The Care Of Disabled And Chronically Ill Children And Welfare Reform, Anna Lukemeyer, Marcia K. Meyers, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

This study explores one aspect of the costs experienced by low-income families with one or more special needs children: direct, out-of-pocket expenses for items related to the child’s disability, such as special foods, transportation to medical clinics, or medical costs not covered by insurance. We find that almost half (46 percent) of a sample of California AFDC families with special needs children experienced some special expenses in the preceding month. About 20 percent of these low-income families experienced total costs exceeding $100. Families with severely disabled children were more likely to experience costs and tended to experience higher costs. While …

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Placing A Lid On Marginal Tax Rates: A New Way To Simplify The Income Tax Structure, John Yinger Aug 1997

Placing A Lid On Marginal Tax Rates: A New Way To Simplify The Income Tax Structure, John Yinger

Center for Policy Research

Thanks to the phasing out of exemptions and excess itemized deductions and to the alternative minimum tax, the federal income tax rate schedule is difficult to draw, to understand, and to connect with any tax principle. Moreover, some taxpayers now face unreasonably high marginal tax rates. This paper proposes a new approach that simplifies the income tax system at its point of intersection with taxpayers; sets absolute upper and lower bounds on true marginal tax rates; and allows for the phasing out of any or all exemptions, deductions, or other tax preferences according to clear principles. This approach can achieve …

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The Economic And Fiscal Impact Of Lake Remediation On Onondaga County, William Duncombe, Shannon Felt, James R. Follain, Bernard Jump Jr. Aug 1997

The Economic And Fiscal Impact Of Lake Remediation On Onondaga County, William Duncombe, Shannon Felt, James R. Follain, Bernard Jump Jr.

Center for Policy Research

This is the fourth and final report to the Onondaga Lake Management Conference about the economic and fiscal implications for Onondaga County of court-mandated expenditures for sewer-related remediation of Onondaga Lake. Exactly how much remediation will cost and what, precisely, will be the technical specifications of the plan that is finally approved by the court are both still to be decided. Yet, there is little doubt that an undertaking of the dollar magnitude contemplated for lake remediation has the potential to affect the fiscal condition of the county and the future health of the local economy.

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The Cost Of Caring: Childhood Disability And Poor Families, Marcia K. Meyers, Anna Lukemeyer, Timothy M. Smeeding Jul 1997

The Cost Of Caring: Childhood Disability And Poor Families, Marcia K. Meyers, Anna Lukemeyer, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

Children in poor families are at heightened risk for disabilities and chronic health problems, and care for these children can impose substantial costs on families and public programs. Although the prevalence and costs of disabilities among poor children have important policy implications, they have been largely overlooked in research on poverty and welfare and on the costs of childhood disabilities. This paper analyzes the prevalence of childhood disabilities and chronic illness among welfare recipient families in California and the probability families caring for these children experience higher out-of-pocket costs and material hardship then do other similar families.

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A Review And Forecast Of The Onondaga County Economy, Shannon Felt, James R. Follain, Suzanne Mccoskey Mar 1997

A Review And Forecast Of The Onondaga County Economy, Shannon Felt, James R. Follain, Suzanne Mccoskey

Center for Policy Research

The purpose of this paper is to review the economy of Onondaga County and to offer a forecast of its future until the year 2035. This information will be used in forming a plan to improve the quality of Onondaga Lake. Understanding the past and the forecastable future is crucial to the formation of this plan and to anyone with a stake in the county’s future economic growth. To create this review and forecast, we used the REMI model, a multi-equation model of a local or regional economy and is a tool that is widely used in studies of this …

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Onondaga County's Economic Performance Since 1980 And Prospects For The Next Decade, William Duncombe, Wilson Wong Feb 1997

Onondaga County's Economic Performance Since 1980 And Prospects For The Next Decade, William Duncombe, Wilson Wong

Center for Policy Research

The last three decades have been a time of transition for the economy of Onondaga County. After its poor performance in the 1970s, it rebounded during most of the 1980s. Since then the county economy has stagnated and even declined in key sectors. This report probes behind these aggregate trends to shed light on the nature of the changing county economy. To put these trends in perspective, the county's performance is compared to that of other metropolitan areas and regions in New York State and several fast growing metropolitan areas in the South. Understanding the reasons for Onondaga County's current …

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American Income Inequality In A Cross-National Perspective: Why Are We So Different?, Timothy M. Smeeding Jan 1997

American Income Inequality In A Cross-National Perspective: Why Are We So Different?, Timothy M. Smeeding

Center for Policy Research

Increasingly the rich nations of the world face a common set of social and economic issues: the cost of population aging, a growing number of single parent families, the growing majority of two-earner families, increasing numbers of immigrants from poorer nations, and in particular, rising economic inequality generated by skill-based technological change, international trade and other factors. All of these nations have also designed systems of social protection to shield their citizen against the risk of a fall in economic status due to unemployment, divorce, disability, retirement, and death of a spouse. The interaction of these economic and demographic forces …

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