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Articles 1 - 30 of 268
Full-Text Articles in Public Policy
Do Nonprofit Ratings Help Donors Make Better Decisions?, Ashraf Haque
Do Nonprofit Ratings Help Donors Make Better Decisions?, Ashraf Haque
Center for Policy Research
Nonprofit organizations depend on donations to fulfill their missions, but donors choosing among 1.8 million U.S. public charities often lack the time or capacity to evaluate which organizations are actually performing well. This brief summarizes findings from a study that used a five-year panel dataset of over one million nonprofit-year records from GuideStar (2014–2018) to examine how transparency seal ratings affect donation behavior. The author finds that having any GuideStar seal increases donations by about 7% compared to having no seal, and that platinum-rated nonprofits receive 34% more in donations than unrated organizations, regardless of actual organizational quality. Donors do …
Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey
Can The Safety Net Support Families Through Childbirth?, Hyojeong Kim, Colleen Heflin, Taryn Morrissey
Center for Policy Research
Childbirth is a life event that often disrupts maternal employment and household earnings just as family expenses increase. In the United States, families do not have access to a national paid parental leave program and must rely on a patchwork of safety net programs that were not designed specifically to support households during pregnancy and the immediate postpartum period. This brief uses linked administrative data from the Virginia Longitudinal Data System (2016–2021) to describe changes in household earnings and social welfare benefits before and after childbirth among low-income mothers receiving the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or Temporary Assistance for …
Should We Flee? The Mortality And Economic Impacts Of Hurricane Evacuation Orders, Lucas Kaplan
Should We Flee? The Mortality And Economic Impacts Of Hurricane Evacuation Orders, Lucas Kaplan
Center for Policy Research
I estimate the mortality and county-level regional economic impacts of hurricane evacuation orders using a novel instrumental variables framework. Relative to similarly affected but non-evacuated areas, evacuated counties experience fewer deaths but lower personal income, employment, and business establishments into the second year following the storm, likely stemming from delayed returns in wealthier neighborhoods. I then develop a threshold decision rule that balances the mortality benefits against these persistent economic costs and apply this framework to orders issued from 2016–2022. Incorporating these persistent economic costs alters policy evaluation: the largest orders generate net benefits that dwarf their costs, but the …
An Introduction To The China Land Sales Data Set: The Universe Of Land-Use-Right Transfers In China 2000-2022, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Qiang Ren
An Introduction To The China Land Sales Data Set: The Universe Of Land-Use-Right Transfers In China 2000-2022, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Qiang Ren
Center for Policy Research
The China Land Sales Data Set (2000-2022) includes the universe of land-use-right sales in China in the first 23 years of the 21st century, a period of the fastest mass urbanization and intense infrastructure construction in China’s history, that accompanied the rapid growth of China’s economy and household income. For this reason, this data set carries substance in many ways for anyone who needs to understand the occurrences in China of that period. The phrase “land sale” refers to the transfer of land-use right from the state as the sole owner of urban land to any individual, firm or entity …
The Effect Of Retention Threat On Student Learning Gains: Evidence From Ohio, Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco
The Effect Of Retention Threat On Student Learning Gains: Evidence From Ohio, Sarah Souders, Robert Bifulco
Center for Policy Research
Grade retention policies create incentives for students to make adequate progress ahead of evaluation. The threat of retention thus has the potential to affect all students’ academic outcomes, increasing achievement especially among students with test scores near the retention policy’s threshold. By using unique data from Ohio which allows us to implement a regression discontinuity design, we find that students exposed to the threat of retention in Grade 3 experience larger learning gains than students who are not under retention threat. Gains in Grade 3 English Language Arts (ELA) are 0.077 SD and although effects partially fade over time, positive …
A Study On Gender Equality And Geographic Homogeneity In Education And Their Association With Midlife Suicide, Julene Kemp Cooney
A Study On Gender Equality And Geographic Homogeneity In Education And Their Association With Midlife Suicide, Julene Kemp Cooney
Dissertations - ALL
ABSTRACT Suicide consistently ranks among the top five causes of death for the U.S. population aged 25-64, and suicide rates have been rising in the United States since 2000. Although targeted efforts have been made to reduce suicide deaths among high-risk individuals, the upstream, or “contextual,” causes of poor mental health that drive suicidal ideation and completion are fueling a national mental health crisis that is overwhelming available mental health resources, resulting in a significant and needless loss of life. This three-chapter dissertation examines how suicide rates among midlife adults in the United States are associated with several upstream contexts …
Three Essays On Social Security Retirement Age Reform And Its Implications For Older Adults, Halim Yoon
Three Essays On Social Security Retirement Age Reform And Its Implications For Older Adults, Halim Yoon
Dissertations - ALL
Rising life expectancy and declining fertility rates have led to rapid population aging in many countries. To address the resulting fiscal pressures on social insurance programs and encourage longer labor force participation among older adults, many countries have reformed their public pension systems. In the United States, the Social Security Amendments of 1983 gradually increased the Full Retirement Age (FRA)—the age of eligibility for full, unreduced Social Security benefits—from 65 to 67. While prior research has extensively examined whether this reform delayed Social Security claiming and retirement, much less is known about its broader and longer-term consequences for well-being, including …
How Shale Boom-Era Municipal Debt Could Undermine Community Resilience During The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles
How Shale Boom-Era Municipal Debt Could Undermine Community Resilience During The Energy Transition, Brandon Charles
Center for Policy Research
Local governments in oil and gas-producing regions took on significant municipal debt during the U.S. shale boom to build schools, water systems, and other infrastructure to accommodate rapid population growth. This brief uses Mergent municipal bond issuance data and interviews with local government officials to describe debt accumulation in shale boom communities (N=2,519 counties; 2004–2015) and its implications for the energy transition. The author finds that shale boom communities accumulated approximately $782 more in municipal debt per capita than comparable communities, a 26% increase totaling $1.9 billion across 58 shale boom counties. If production declines and newer residents leave, the …
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Deepen The Farm Crisis, Not Solve It, Rebecca Schewe, Rick Welsh
The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Will Deepen The Farm Crisis, Not Solve It, Rebecca Schewe, Rick Welsh
Center for Policy Research
The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) promises billions in new farm subsidies, but most of that money won’t go to the farmers who need it most. This brief describes how the OBBB’s changes to agricultural subsidy programs will disproportionately benefit large farms and non-farming investors, accelerating farm loss and consolidation across the United States. The authors argue that without reforms, the OBBB will inflate land values, raise barriers for new and small farmers, and further fuel absentee farmland investment. The authors also identify four reforms policymakers should enact to prevent these devastating consequences, including tightening payment limits and closing loopholes, …
Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul
Identifying Common Trend Determinants In Panel Data, Yoonseok Lee, Peter C. Phillips, Suyong Song, Donggyu Sul
Center for Policy Research
This paper develops a novel method for identifying observable determinants of latent common trends in nonstationary panel data, which are typically removed or controlled in two-way fixed effects regressions. By examining cross sectional dispersion processes, we assess whether panel series exhibit distributional convergence toward specific observed time series, revealing them as long run determinants of the underlying latent trend. The approach also offers a new perspective on cointegration between time series and panel data, focusing on the relative variation of the panel data with respect to the cointegration error. Applying this method to U.S. state-level crime rates demonstrates that the …
Living In Liberal Areas Reduced Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Among Conservatives, Brittany L. Kmush, Rachel E. Dinero
Living In Liberal Areas Reduced Covid-19 Vaccine Hesitancy Among Conservatives, Brittany L. Kmush, Rachel E. Dinero
Population Health Research Brief Series
Political divisions shaped public health responses throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, with conservatives expressing higher vaccine hesitancy than liberals. But does where conservatives live matter? This brief summarizes findings from a study using survey data from 683 U.S. adults (ages 18-94) collected March-April 2023, combined with 2020 presidential election results by zip code. The authors found that liberals consistently had low vaccine hesitancy and high uptake regardless of where they lived, but conservatives living in lower Trump vote share communities reported lower vaccine hesitancy and higher vaccination and booster uptake than conservatives in high Trump vote share communities. This pattern was …
Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson
Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson
Center for Policy Research
This paper studies how increased immigration enforcement in the destination country impacts labor markets in the origin country. Using variation in Mexican migrant networks and Secure Communities (SC), a policy which expanded local immigration enforcement, I show that the deportation of Mexican migrants from the U.S. increases return migration to Mexico and decreases monthly earnings for workers in Mexico. The negative earnings effects are largest for workers most similar to return migrants in terms of their demographics, occupations, and employment types, and are consistent with increased labor market competition.
How Do State Labor Policies Impact Disability For Latino Adults In The U.S.?, Marc A. Garcia, Blakelee R. Kemp, Erin Bisesti
How Do State Labor Policies Impact Disability For Latino Adults In The U.S.?, Marc A. Garcia, Blakelee R. Kemp, Erin Bisesti
Population Health Research Brief Series
Latino adults in the United States experience a greater burden of disability than non-Latino White adults. This brief summarizes findings from a study using data from the 2000-2016 American Community Surveys (ACS) linked to annual state policy data (1998-2014) on Latino adults ages 45-85 across 25 U.S. states (N=1,183,438). The authors describe how state labor policies (i.e., disability insurance, minimum wage protections, paid sick leave, unemployment compensation) predict disability among Latino adults. The authors find that disability rates among Latino adults are lower in states with more liberal labor policy contexts. Liberal state policies appear protective for both U.S.-born and …
Hold Harmless For Whom? The Impact Of Covid Era Policies On School Funding, Teachers, And Students, Michah W. Rothbart, Samantha Cervantes, Amy Ellen Schwartz
Hold Harmless For Whom? The Impact Of Covid Era Policies On School Funding, Teachers, And Students, Michah W. Rothbart, Samantha Cervantes, Amy Ellen Schwartz
Center for Policy Research
This study evaluates the fiscal and academic consequences of New York City’s hold harmless policy during COVID-19, which aimed to stabilize school expenditures amid unexpected enrollment declines by restoring schools’ funding up to initial levels. We examine how school racial composition predicts whether or when schools receive hold harmless “treatment” and assess the impact of hold harmless on financial resources, staffing, and student outcomes, exploring heterogeneity by timing of policy announcement. Although schools with higher White student shares were no more likely than those with higher Hispanic or Black shares to receive hold harmless funds, schools with higher Black shares …
Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson
Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson
Center for Policy Research
This paper examines how protection from deportation and work authorization affect immigration outcomes, focusing on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Using a difference-in-differences design exploiting geographic variation in exposure to DACA-eligible immigrants, we find that DACA significantly increased the number of naturalized citizens without increasing the number of noncitizens. This increase is driven by higher naturalization among prior noncitizens, most of whom are likely not DACA beneficiaries. We provide evidence consistent with DACA increasing incentives for, and reducing barriers to, naturalization by protecting undocumented DACA-eligible contacts, suggesting temporary protections can encourage longer-term commitments and permanent residence among existing immigrants.
On The Legal-Theoretical Foundations Of Property Taxation Under State Ownership Of Land, Tianke Ban, Yilin Hou, Ping Zhang
On The Legal-Theoretical Foundations Of Property Taxation Under State Ownership Of Land, Tianke Ban, Yilin Hou, Ping Zhang
Center for Policy Research
The general public and even some scholars challenge the legitimacy of levying the property tax under conditions where land is state-owned and multi-year land-use fees have already been collected at the time of house sales. This challenge points to the legal- theoretical foundations of property taxation: the core issue is whether the rights and economic utility of China's construction land-use-rights (CLUR) are sufficient to be treated as the object of property tax levy. China's Civil Law stipulates that CLUR holders have the rights to possess, use, and profit from the land during their use period, as well as the right …
Pandemic Mask Mandates And Closures Were Linked To Increased Gun Violence, Douglas A. Wolf, Emily W. Wiemers, Iliya Gutin, Jennifer Karas Montez, Shannon M. Monnat
Pandemic Mask Mandates And Closures Were Linked To Increased Gun Violence, Douglas A. Wolf, Emily W. Wiemers, Iliya Gutin, Jennifer Karas Montez, Shannon M. Monnat
Population Health Research Brief Series
Gun violence worsened substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This brief summarizes findings from a study using weekly gun violence casualty data from 2016-2021 for 304 U.S. counties from the Gun Violence Archive and COVID-19 policy data from county-level measures of activity restrictions and masking requirements. The authors find that policies requiring masking and activity restrictions were associated with significant increases in gun violence. Indoor masking requirements were linked to a 28% increase in gun violence, while activity restrictions were associated with a 4.2% increase.
Student Disruptions And Teacher Turnover, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu
Student Disruptions And Teacher Turnover, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu
Center for Policy Research
This paper examines how exposure to disruptive students affects teacher retention using linked teacher–student administrative records from North Carolina. To address non-random classroom assignment, we instrument for classroom exposure using the school-by-grade share of disruptive students based on prior-year disciplinary infractions. A 10 percentage point increase in the share of disruptive students raises the probability of an early-career teacher leaving the school in the following year by 1.0 percentage points. Notably, working in a school environment with supportive leadership and greater teacher autonomy, particularly around student conduct policies, mitigates the impact of student disruptions.
Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang
Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang
Center for Policy Research
This paper studies how neighborhood density affects residential carbon emissions, using detailed data from Indonesia and the Philippines. To address simultaneity, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and to address sorting, we control for community averages of observed characteristics. Unlike cities in developed countries, we find that density is positively correlated with residential energy use. After controlling for sorting, we find a precise null relationship between density and residential carbon emissions. Our results suggest that policies to control urban sprawl may not be successful in reducing residential carbon emissions in developing country cities.
A Policy Reversal As Structural Break: A Lesson From China’S Land Lease Financing For Infrastructure, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Lei Shao
A Policy Reversal As Structural Break: A Lesson From China’S Land Lease Financing For Infrastructure, Yilin Hou, Lin Li, Lei Shao
Center for Policy Research
Land-based revenues as a fiscal instrument to finance infrastructure tie public investment to real estate markets, where demand fluctuations cause fiscal consequences. This paper takes policy reversals as structural breaks and examines their impacts on infrastructure investment. We dissect China’s 2016 policy reversal that disallowed developers to finance land purchase with debt, causing sharp declines in local government land revenues, slashing their fiscal base for infrastructure investment. Using prefecture-level panel data and continuous difference-in-differences identification, we estimate the reversal reduced land-lease revenues by 55%. Two-stage least squares estimates suggest a 10% land-revenue decline translates into 6.6% investment reduction. Decomposing the …
Can Schools Sustain The Rising Cost Of Retiree Health Care?, Robert Bifulco, Iuliia Shybalkina
Can Schools Sustain The Rising Cost Of Retiree Health Care?, Robert Bifulco, Iuliia Shybalkina
Center for Policy Research
Many New York State school districts spend significant amounts each year for retiree health care benefits, and these payments are expected to grow over the coming decades. This brief summarizes findings from a study examining approximately 300 New York State school districts. Unlike retiree pension plans, which are typically prefunded, retiree health care benefits are funded on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning that benefits for past employees who are currently retired are paid using current district revenues. In the average school district, pay-as-you-go spending currently amounts to 4.5 percent of district revenues. Assuming current benefit and funding policies remain, spending is …
Asian College Students' Well-Being During A Period Of Rising Anti-Asian Sentiment, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu
Asian College Students' Well-Being During A Period Of Rising Anti-Asian Sentiment, Kyuhan Choi, Ying Shi, Maria Zhu
Center for Policy Research
We use a large survey of students in U.S. colleges to study the distinct ways in which the COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying anti-Asian rhetoric shaped the experiences of Asian and Pacific Islanders (APIs). Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the pandemic led to Asian students experiencing more discrimination, feeling less safe during the day, and using fewer mental health services compared to White peers. The increase in discrimination and the perceived lower safety are concentrated among East and Southeast Asians, while South Asians were not affected. Despite these effects, we detect no relative deterioration in severe psychological distress or …
A Capital Idea? The Welfare Effects Of Relocating Indonesia’S Government To A New City, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Radine Rafols, Yao Wang, Yi Jiang
A Capital Idea? The Welfare Effects Of Relocating Indonesia’S Government To A New City, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Radine Rafols, Yao Wang, Yi Jiang
Center for Policy Research
Many developing countries are planning to create new capital cities, a place-making policy designed to alleviate congestion and respond to climate change. To evaluate growth and welfare effects, we specify a dynamic quantitative spatial model with public employment, informality, fiscal transfers, and frictions in trade and migration. We calibrate the model with data from Indonesia and conduct policy experiments studying the creation of Nusantara in East Kalimantan. Despite increasing employment in the new capital region, we find that building Nusantara reduces national growth and welfare. Climate change attenuates its negative welfare effects, but only slightly.
Housing Market Responses To Constrained Mobility Rights - Evidence From A School Enrollment Reform For Migrant Children, Yilin Hou, Jinghua Qi, Yugang Tang
Housing Market Responses To Constrained Mobility Rights - Evidence From A School Enrollment Reform For Migrant Children, Yilin Hou, Jinghua Qi, Yugang Tang
Center for Policy Research
Mobility matches open housing markets. With constrained mobility and partially open housing markets, market responses reflect the constraints. We study this mechanism by examining disparity in access to public schools across socio-economic groups, focusing on properties near primary schools accessible to migrant students under social integration policies in a Chinese megacity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we uncover complex spatial and market dynamics: while house prices close to ordinary primary schools remained relatively stable, house prices farther away declined markedly. This differential impact suggests the interaction between a potential "peer effect" and an "amenity effect." The rental rates showed little change …
Student Alienation In Schools Goes Beyond Low Achievement, Sean J. Drake, Jeffrey Guhin
Student Alienation In Schools Goes Beyond Low Achievement, Sean J. Drake, Jeffrey Guhin
Center for Policy Research
When we think about students struggling in school, we often focus on grades, test scores, and graduation rates. But there's a deeper problem affecting students across all achievement levels: alienation. Students feel disconnected from school not because they're failing, but because they can't see themselves in the narrow story schools tell about success. This brief summarizes findings from a study drawing on over two years of ethnographic fieldwork in two different high schools in Los Angeles, California. The authors identify four types of alienation students experience: feeling like they don't belong, being in schools that can't support their goals, pursuing …
Public School Districts Should Close Their “Alternative” And “Continuation” High Schools, Sean J. Drake
Public School Districts Should Close Their “Alternative” And “Continuation” High Schools, Sean J. Drake
Center for Policy Research
Public school districts across the country funnel academically struggling students into "alternative" or "continuation" high schools designed to help them catch up on credits and graduate on time. However, these schools often reproduce more inequality than they alleviate. This brief summarizes findings from a two-year ethnographic case study of an alternative high school in suburban Los Angeles, California. The author finds that these schools offer limited curricula and no extracurricular opportunities, while Black, Latino, and low-income students are vastly overrepresented compared to district averages. Students transferred to alternative schools are also more likely to drop out than low-performing peers who …
Why Aren’T More People Calling 988 For Mental Health Crises?, Michiko Ueda, Colleen M. Heflin, Yanhong Liu, Qingyi Yu, Seethalakshmi Ramanathan
Why Aren’T More People Calling 988 For Mental Health Crises?, Michiko Ueda, Colleen M. Heflin, Yanhong Liu, Qingyi Yu, Seethalakshmi Ramanathan
Center for Policy Research
When someone is in a mental health crisis, calling 911 has long been the default response. However, 911 call centers are not well-equipped to handle mental health emergencies, and law enforcement dispatch can result in unnecessary arrests, hospitalizations, or crisis escalation. The 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline launched in 2022 is a free, confidential alternative, yet awareness remains low and misconceptions persist. Using data from a 2024 national online survey of nearly 1,900 U.S. adults ages 18-50, this brief summarizes findings about awareness of 988, willingness to use it, and concerns about the service. Results show that only 22% of …
China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao
China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao
Center for Policy Research
As part of its turn towards domestic-led growth China plans to stimulate consumption, including through a reduction in consumption taxes. We compare two model-based scenarios in which the revenue losses from lower consumption taxes are replaced by higher income taxes or higher land taxes. The model is carefully calibrated to recent Chinese data, including detailed fiscal data. We find that higher income taxes lead to significant losses in output and incomes, while higher land taxes lead to significant gains. These gains are increasing in the share of land in net wealth, a statistic for which better data would be invaluable.
Community-Based Food Program Limits In Reducing Older Adult Food Insecurity, Madonna Harrington Meyer, Colleen M. Heflin
Community-Based Food Program Limits In Reducing Older Adult Food Insecurity, Madonna Harrington Meyer, Colleen M. Heflin
Population Health Research Brief Series
Older adults who are grappling with food insecurity may enhance their food supply through community-based programs that provide free and subsidized food. This complicated system, categorized by group meal programs, home-delivered meals, and food provided to be eaten off-site, is complex, expensive, and may be difficult for older adults to use. Based on the book, Food for Thought: Understanding Older Adults Food Insecurity, this brief describes three key limits of community-based food programs for older adults. First, the quantity and quality of community-based food programs vary markedly by where one lives. Second, the food may be of poor nutritional …
The Limits Of Snap In Addressing Older Adult Food Insecurity, Colleen M. Heflin, Madonna Harrington Meyer
The Limits Of Snap In Addressing Older Adult Food Insecurity, Colleen M. Heflin, Madonna Harrington Meyer
Population Health Research Brief Series
The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) is designed to address the economic roots of food insecurity. However, SNAP participation rates among older adults substantially lag behind those of other age groups. Based on the book, Food for Thought: Understanding Older Adults Food Insecurity, this brief describes how SNAP is not well designed for older adults in three respects: (1) the high levels of administrative burden associated with eligibility, certification, and benefit-determination processes, (2) the low value of SNAP benefits compared with the high costs associated with redeeming them, and (3) the high levels of state variation in SNAP policies …