Open Access. Powered by Scholars. Published by Universities.®
- Keyword
-
- Exponential Smoothing (2)
- Budget Theory (1)
- Budgeting (1)
- Cost Accounting (1)
- Expenditure Forecasting (1)
-
- Forecasting (1)
- Forecating Method (1)
- History of Budgeting (1)
- History of Public Administration (1)
- Hoover Commision (1)
- Intervention (1)
- Medicaid Forecasting (1)
- Performance Budgeting (1)
- Public Budgeting (1)
- Return to trend (1)
- Revenue Forecasting (1)
- Simple Methods (1)
- Theory of Public Administration (1)
- Transfer Function (1)
- Trend (1)
Articles 1 - 6 of 6
Full-Text Articles in Public Administration
State Revenue Forecasting Accuracy, Dan Williams, Joseph Ononchie
State Revenue Forecasting Accuracy, Dan Williams, Joseph Ononchie
Publications and Research
This paper examines forecasting accuracy of state revenue forecasting for 50 states using data published on the National Association of State Budget Officer’s (NASBO) website (www.nasbo.org). The data shows four categories of revenue: sales tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax, and all other (as a residual from total taxes). It shows some evidence that forecast bias reflects a hedge against uncertainty; however, there is also evidence that there is a counterbalancing preference to find the money needed to provide the services demanded.
Towards A Metatheory Of Budgeting, Dan Williams, Thad D. Calabrese
Towards A Metatheory Of Budgeting, Dan Williams, Thad D. Calabrese
Publications and Research
In this paper. we suggest that many budget theories actually are about appropriating and not about budgeting. We trace this development back to the classic budgeting question posed by V.O. Keys in 1940. To clarify the issue, we examine early normative theories of budgeting, and apply many contemporary theories about budgeting to the budgeting process advocated for in this early work. By analyzing current theories, we show that budget theories are, in many cases, simply focused on parts of the budget process or on the role of techniques in decision making. Our analyses suggest that rather than theories competing with …
A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams
A Dynamic-Trend Exponential Smoothing Model, Don Miller, Dan Williams
Publications and Research
Forecasters often encounter situations in which the local pattern of a time series is not expected to persist over the forecasting horizon. Since exponential smoothing models emphasize recent behavior, their forecasts may not be appropriate over longer horizons. In this paper, we develop a new model in which the local trend line projected by exponential smoothing converges asymptotically to an assumed future long-run trend line, which might be an extension of a historical long-run trend line. The rapidity of convergence is governed by a parameter. A familiar example is an economic series exhibiting persistent long-run trend with cyclic variation. This …
Historical Perspective On Performance Budgeting: Performance Budgeting In The United States Before 1960, Dan Williams
Historical Perspective On Performance Budgeting: Performance Budgeting In The United States Before 1960, Dan Williams
Publications and Research
With the assistance of A. E. Buck, Herbert Hoover coined the term Performance Budget in 1949 to rebrand cost data budgeting. Cost data budgeting originated in 1912 in Richmond County (Staten Island), New York. It is strongly associated with the National Commission on Municipal Standards and the Committee on Uniform Street Sanitation Records, which are both direct derivatives of Clarence Ridley’s original work in making sense of performance measurement under the title Means of Measuring Municipal Government, his 1927 dissertation at Syracuse University. Ridley subsequently led the International City Managers Association for nearly 30 years. He teamed with A. E. …
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Level Adjusted Exponential Smoothing: A Method For Judgmentally Adjusting Exponential Smoothing Models For Planned Discontinuities, Dan Williams, Don Miller
Publications and Research
Forecasters often make judgmental adjustments to exponential smoothing forecasts to account for the effects of a future planned change. While this approach may produce sound initial forecasts, it can result in diminished accuracy for forecast updates. A proposed technique lets the forecaster include policy change adjustments within an exponential smoothing model. For 20 real data series representing Virginia Medicaid expenses, initial forecasts and forecast updates are developed using the proposed technique and several alternatives, and they are updated through various simulated level shifts. The proposed technique was more accurate than the alternatives in updating forecasts when a shift in level …
Medicaid Forecasting Practices, Dan Williams
Medicaid Forecasting Practices, Dan Williams
Publications and Research
This paper examines forecasting activities among Medicaid agencies in the fifty United States, Washington, D.C., and five U.S. territories (American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, Northern Mariana Islands, and Virgin Islands). Most frequently, studies of state or local forecasting practice focus on revenue forecasting. There are several reasons why comparison of state Medicaid forecast practice may be better than comparison of state revenue forecasting practices. First, there is no consistent reporting of state revenue estimates. States make forecasts when it suits them and report them in a manner that is satisfactory to their governors or legislatures. Collection of data through national …