Defense and Security Studies Commons^™

Inconsistencies Emerge Between Regional And Local-Scale Water Security Metrics At Military Installations, Abigail Birnbaum, Michael L. Berg, Caitlin Grady, Daniel J. Weeks, Christopher M. Chini

Faculty Publications

Recent United States federal policy for military installations has emphasized the importance of developing a standardized approach for water security assessment to monitor changes in water resources and the ability for an installation to meet both its civilian and mission needs. For military installations in the United States, these assessments must consider demands both inside and outside the installation’s fence line, as regional resources are required to meet mission readiness. Focusing on physical water scarcity, this study compares four water security metrics with unique formulations and spatial resolutions, including an installation-scale metric and multiple regional metrics defined for either baseline …

A Panel Data Regression Model For Defense Merger And Acquisition Activity, Corey D. Mack, Clay Koschnick, Michael Brown, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Brandon M. Lucas

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: This paper examines the relationship between a prime contractor's financial health and its mergers and acquisitions (M&A) spending in the defense industry. It aims to provide models that give the United States Department of Defense (DoD) indications of future M&A activity, informing decision-makers and contributing to ensuring competitive markets that benefit the consumer.

The results show a significant relationship between efficiency and M&A spending, indicating that companies with lower efficiency tend to spend more on M&As. However, there was no significant relationship between M&A spending and a company's profitability or solvency. These results were consistent with previous research and …

Domain Restriction Zones: An Evolution Of The Military Exclusion Zone, Cole M. Mooty, Robert A. Bettinger, Mark G. Reith

Faculty Publications

Since the early part of the twenty-first century, US adversaries have expanded their military capabilities within and their access to new warfighting domains. When faced with the growth of adversaries’ asymmetric capabilities, the means, tactics, and strategies previously used by the US military lose their proportional effectiveness. To avoid such degradation of capability, the operational concept of the military exclusion zone (MEZ) should be revised to suit the modern battlespace while also addressing the shifts in national policy that encourage diplomacy over military force. The concept and development of domain restriction zones (DRZs) increase the relevancy of traditional MEZs in …

A Hierarchical Cluster Approach Toward Understanding The Regional Variable In Country Conflict Modeling, Benjamin D. Leiby, Darryl K. Ahner

Faculty Publications

Purpose: This paper aims to examine how the regional variable in country conflict modeling affects forecast accuracy and identifies a methodology to further improve the predictions.

Design/methodology/approach: This paper uses statistical learning methods to both evaluate the quantity of data for clustering countries along with quantifying accuracy according to the number of clusters used.

Findings: This study demonstrates that increasing the number of clusters for modeling improves the ability to predict conflict as long as the models are robust.

Originality/value: This study investigates the quantity of clusters used in conflict modeling, while previous research assumes a specific quantity before …

Measuring Radiation Protection: Partners From Across The Nuclear Enterprise Evaluate The Radiation Protection Of Us Army Vehicles, Andrew W. Decker, Robert Prins

Faculty Publications

Recent mounting nuclear threats and postures from adversary nation-states, such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, represent a clear danger to the interests and security of the United States of America and its Allies. To meet these threats, the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review requires the Department of Defense (DoD) to design, develop, and manage a combat-credible U.S. military which, among other prioritizations, is survivable. A survivable force can generate combat power despite adversary attacks. As such, the US Army must prepare today to set the conditions for successful conventional warfare on the nuclear battlefields of tomorrow. Our Army cannot …

Wooing “Willing Dupes”: The Bush Administration’S Use Of Emotional Language In The Drive Toward War With Iraq, Michael F. Russo

Faculty Publications

The publicly available texts of the George W. Bush administration from September 11, 2001, to March 19, 2003, as presented in The Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, were analyzed for word frequency and the words themselves analyzed for emotional weight using the NRC Emotion Intensity Lexicon. Transcripts of six television news agencies (ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, FOX, and PBS) were also analyzed for word frequency to determine the extent to which these agencies may have repeated and consequently amplified the rhetoric of the administration. Public opinion polling for this same period was examined in an …

Optimizing Cybersecurity Budgets With Attacksimulation, Alexander Master, George Hamilton, J. Eric Dietz

Faculty Publications

Modern organizations need effective ways to assess cybersecurity risk. Successful cyber attacks can result in data breaches, which may inflict significant loss of money, time, and public trust. Small businesses and non-profit organizations have limited resources to invest in cybersecurity controls and often do not have the in-house expertise to assess their risk. Cyber threat actors also vary in sophistication, motivation, and effectiveness. This paper builds on the previous work of Lerums et al., who presented an AnyLogic model for simulating aspects of a cyber attack and the efficacy of controls in a generic enterprise network. This paper argues that …

Bmi And Physical Activity, Military-Aged U.S. Population 2015–2020, Bryant J. Webber, Daniel B. Bornstein, Patricia A. Deuster, Francis G. O'Connor, Sohyun Park, Kenneth M. Rose, Geoffrey P. Whitfield

Faculty Publications

Excerpt: Obesity and physical inactivity are considered possible U.S. national security threats because of their impact on military recruitment. The objectives of this study were to estimate the prevalence of (1) BMI eligibility for military entrance, (2) adequate physical activity participation among the BMI-eligible population, and (3) combined BMI eligibility and adequate physical activity.

This cross-sectional study of nonpregnant, military-aged civilians (aged 17–42 years) used objectively measured weight and height data and self-reported aerobic physical activity data from the 2015–2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. BMI eligibility was defined as 19.0–27.5 kg/m2, per Department of Defense regulation. Adequate physical …

Beyond The High Ground: A Taxonomy For Earth-Moon System Operations, Adam P. Wilmer, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

Situational and space domain awareness in the space domain can no longer be confined to that which is found in geosynchronous orbit. International activities—commercial and military—and threats to the planet itself exist and are increasing across the entire Earth-Moon system. This reality requires a new taxonomy to accurately classify space domain awareness missions and better apply resources to and development of the same. This work presents such a taxonomy for the classification of space domain awareness regions.

Black Space Versus Blue Space: A Proposed Dichotomy Of Future Space Operations, Robert A. Bettinger, Carl A. Poole

Faculty Publications

This article will examine the proposed space operations structure by first outlining the historical foundations for differences in maritime and air domain military capabilities, specifically brown-w­ater versus blue-w­ater navies, and “local/ regional” versus “global” airpower. Next, the article will present the concept of black space and blue space in terms of an environment-­specific definition, as well as an examination of the technical capability requirements, mission types, and national prestige and geopolitical considerations underpinning the proposed operation types. Finally, the article will explore how the USSF might support future space exploration within the black-­space and blue-s­pace operations structure.

An Argument Against Satellite Resiliency: Simplicity In The Face Of Modern Satellite Design, Dax Linville, Robert A. Bettinger

Faculty Publications

The US Air Force and the wider US government rely heavily on space-based capabilities in various orbital regimes to project national security and sovereignty. However, these capabilities are enabled by the design, launch, and operation of satellites produced with a design methodology that favors large, monolithic, and technologically exquisite space systems. Despite the ability for these satellites to provide enduring and resilient capabilities, they suffer from a woefully long acquisition process that debilitates any prospect of rapid satellite reconstitution in the event of a space war.

Air Force Space Programs: Comparing Estimates To Final Development Budgets, Christopher Elworth, Edward D. White, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Gregory E. Brown

Faculty Publications

This article analyzes how development budget estimates, as reported in the Selected Acquisition Reports, change over time for primarily Air Force space programs. Government acquisition policy emphasizes the importance of developing an accurate point estimate for programs to ensure program budget efficiency; however, statistics imply space programs tend to underspend at the beginning of the program and to overspend at the end of Initial Operational Capability. This suggests new phasing methods that reflect the unique needs of space and perhaps other developmental-type programs by allocating more of the budget in later years rather than at the beginning of the program, …

The Nuclear Network: Multiplex Network Analysis For Interconnected Systems, Bethany L. Goldblum, Andrew W. Reddie, Thomas C. Hickey, James E. Bevins, Sarah Laderman, Nathaniel Mahowald, Austin P. Wright, Elie Katzenson, Yara Mubarak

Faculty Publications

States facing the decision to develop a nuclear weapons program do so within a broader context of their relationships with other countries. How these diplomatic, economic, and strategic relationships impact proliferation decisions, however, remains under-specified. Adding to the existing empirical literature that attempts to model state proliferation decisions, this article introduces the first quantitative heterogeneous network analysis of how networks of conflict, alliances, trade, and nuclear cooperation interact to spur or deter nuclear proliferation. Using a multiplex network model, we conceptualize states as nodes linked by different modes of interaction represented on individual network layers. Node strength is used to …

India’S Surgical Strikes: Response To Strategic Imperatives, Karthika Sasikumar

Faculty Publications

In September 2016, militants who were allegedly backed by Pakistan attacked an Indian Army camp in Uri. The government in New Delhi was facing important regional elections. It faced intense public pressure to muster a military response. Such a response, however, ran the risk of triggering a nuclear exchange. Ten days after the Uri attack, India reported that it had carried out ‘surgical strikes’ on terrorist training camps in Pakistan-controlled territory. The paper examines this specific episode in India–Pakistan deterrence dynamics, focusing on the nomenclature ‘surgical strikes’. The paper argues that the choice of the term itself is new and …

Branding India: Constructing A Reputation For Responsibility In The Nuclear Order, Karthika Sasikumar

Faculty Publications

Nation-branding professionals have the same goal as diplomats and politicians – the goal of endowing the nation with specific qualities in the minds of the target audience, so that it is identified with those qualities. In other words, they are constructing an identity for the country. Insights from the commercial practice of nation branding can illuminate the process of identity construction by states. As an illustration, the paper investigates the case of India’s branding/self-presentation as a responsible holder of nuclear weapons. In 1998, India declared itself a Nuclear Weapon State (NWS). Since India has not been granted NWS status under …

After Nuclear Midnight: The Impact Of A Nuclear War On India And Pakistan, Karthika Sasikumar

Faculty Publications

During the past decade, computer models have predicted that the physical impacts of a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan, or even a single strike on a large city, would be devastating. The social, economic, and political impacts – although less well known – would also be crippling and would reverberate throughout the world. Efforts to use “Armageddon estimates” to scare the people of India and Pakistan have thus far not significantly reduced the risk of nuclear weapons use in this turbulent region. However, the increasing penetration of television and social media may give members of the public a better …

Wartime Construction Project Outcomes As A Function Of Contract Type, Ryan M. Hoff, Gregory D. Hammond, Peter P. Feng, Edward D. White

Faculty Publications

The United States has spent more than $23 billion on construction in Afghanistan since 2001. The dynamic security situation created substantial project uncertainty, and many construction projects used cost-plus-fixed-fee contracts (CPFF) instead of the firm-fixed-price (FFP) norm. Using a dataset of 25 wartime construction projects managed by the Air Force Civil Engineer Center, the authors sought to confirm that both contract types yield project outcomes consistent with the established literature. As expected, they found CPFF contracts had greater cost and schedule growth than FFP. However, they did not find differences regarding as-built quality. Additionally, the authors sought to determine whether …

Freedomland, Lindsey Mantoan

Faculty Publications

Lindsey Mantoan reviews a performance of Freedomland (by Michael Gene Sullivan) for Theatre Journal.

Canada (En)Counters Terrorism: Us-Canada Relations And Counter-Terrorism Policy, Veronica Kitchen, Karthika Sasikumar

Faculty Publications

This paper examines the role of identity in shaping counter-terrorism policy in Canada. We show that identity functions in three ways: constitutively by defining the range of choices a state is likely to consider; strategically by being a resource to buttress arguments based in economic or sovereignty interests; and heuristically by using identity as a marker for risk. This three-faceted explanation helps explain why, despite close economic, social, and political links between Canada and the United States which might lead us to expect Canada to follow American counter-terrorism policy, Canadian counter-terrorism policy often diverges from the American lead.

Maximizing Warfighter Capability Using Surveyed Necessity Measurement: Application To The Usaf F-15c Fleet, John M. Colombi, David R. Jacques, Dennis D. Strouble

Faculty Publications

Within the Department of Defense, with changing missions to counter dynamic and asymmetrical threats, the acquisition workforce strives to maximize capability for joint warfighting. How acquisition professionals measure and select capability improvements for the nation’s weapon systems is a perpetual challenge, made even more complex with constrained defense budgets. This study identifies a method for determining which upgrades should be purchased (production) for which aircraft in the F- 15C fleet by optimizing a capability proxy measure. Each upgrade’s “necessity” for a given mission area was obtained by conducting a survey of over 250 experienced F-15C pilots. The solution presented in …

Generating Needed Modernization Funds: Streamlining The Bureaucracy--Not Outsourcing And Privatizing--Is The Best Solution, Jan P. Muczyk

Faculty Publications

The Department of Defense (DoD) budget, in real dollars, has decreased for a dozen years or so, and will likely continue to do so. Since all the funds necessary for warfighting asset modernization will not come from Congress, DoD must free up existing funds for reallocation to its modernization program. So far, much reliance has been placed on privatization and outsourcing as ways of releasing large sums of money. But it is highly unlikely that these instrumentalities are up to the task, and other sources must shoulder a large part of the load. Although eliminating duplication of mission and roles …

Defense Industrial Base Policy: Revisited, Michael E. Heberling

Faculty Publications

In an era of decreasing defense budgets and enemy threats, problems associated with maintaining a healthy defense industrial base have become pronounced. This article discussed defense industrial policy goals and argues that these goals may be collectively unobtainable.

Defense Contractor Buyer-Seller Relationships: Theoretical Approaches, Carl R. Templin

Faculty Publications

This article examines the applicability of three theoretical approaches to defining defense buyer-seller relationships. Economic Free-Market Theory explains the relative economic power of the participants but ignores the legal, political, and socioeconomic aspects so pervasive in defense acquisitions. Transaction Cost Economics provides a framework for determining the most cost-effective type of contract governance for each transaction. Systems theory explores the degree of interdependence between the buyers and sellers systems. Each theory contributes unique insights into defense buyer-seller relationships that can be used to judge the appropriateness of contracting laws, regulations, policies, and management approaches for specific acquisition environments.