Defense and Security Studies Commons^™

Perceiving A Competitor: Culture And Cognitive Biases Of The Strong Enemy And The Pacing Threat, Allison Abbe

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The United States and China are prone to systematic cognitive and cultural biases that distort their mutual perceptions. Addressing these biases through cultural education and professional development is essential to overcoming blind spots in understanding the United States’ primary competitor. By applying dynamic constructivist theories from cross-cultural psychology to national security, this monograph builds on existing scholarship to reveal specific cognitive asymmetries between Western and East Asian observers. Differences such as holism, dialecticism, social inference, and perspective taking reflect the cultural lenses through which security actors perceive their competitors’ actions and intentions, but US observers often overlook the cultural factors …

Fighting With Data: Design Implications For Ai-Enabled Mission-Command Systems, C. Anthony Pfaff

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Fighting with Data examines how artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping military decision making by changing both the speed of command and the structure of cognition within mission-command systems. Rather than treating AI as a tool that merely accelerates existing staff processes, this monograph recognizes AI redistributes cognitive labor across a network of people, data, tools, and operational processes. In this new environment, commanders and staffs spend less time assembling information and more time interpreting meaning, judging uncertainty, and deciding how to act.

This shift in the human role requires a new way of thinking about trust in military AI. Traditional …

Out Of The Shadows: Us Intelligence Sharing And The Russia-Ukraine War, 2021–24, Frank Leith Jones

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Focusing on the period from 2021 to 2024, this monograph argues the declassification and public disclosure of US intelligence in anticipation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—together with the subsequent sharing of intelligence with Ukraine during the conflict—have significant implications for national security policy making and military operations in future support of allies and partners. The monograph differs from previous studies in three ways. First, it examines public disclosure as a tool of strategic messaging in information warfare. Second, it serves as a model for intelligence sharing for both reassurance and operational support, with the latter highlighting the role of intelligence …

Economic Warfare: A Foundation For Twenty-First-Century Strategic Practice, Greg Kennedy, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii, Anna Brinkman-Schwartz

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

For over a decade and a half, concerns and tensions between states have been arising over the use of the economic domain in the peer-to-peer competition between large powers. Through this competition, powers aim to gain an economic advantage in their relative positions in the international order. The peer-to-peer competition between large powers has been seen as a growing facet of the strategic competition between the United States and China. The beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War in February 2022 elevated the Sino-American peacetime economic competition from one that could be classified as a hybrid form of warfare, a condition of …

Academic Year 2026–27 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Us Army War College

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Academic Year 2026–27 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of War’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 10 sections organized under the broad themes of 1) Regional Challenges and Opportunities and 2) Institutional Challenges. This assessment represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 105 command-sponsored questions from 47 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of War. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question …

A Human-Centric Framework: Employment Principles For Lethal Autonomous Weapons, Brennan Deveraux

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph challenges the Department of War to reframe the conversation about humans’ involvement in lethal autonomous weapons systems by codifying a human-centric framework built on the employment pillars of certification, authority, restriction, and accountability. Although an ample body of literature discusses lethal autonomous weapon systems, this monograph takes a novel approach by proposing a theoretical framework and applying it to historical and hypothetical practical scenarios involving weapons with autonomous characteristics. In terms of methodology, the monograph relies heavily on primary sources, including UN documents and Department of War publications, which are augmented by secondary sources from experts in the …

The 2024 Carlisle Conference On The Pla: Protracted War Against The Prc, Joshua Arostegui

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference featured keynote speakers from the US Department of Defense and the think-tank community, and panels focused on assessing the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of and capability to carry out a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific. The conference brought together over 100 participants from government, military, US Intelligence Community, academic, and think-tank organizations.

The conference papers were authored by expert speakers and panelists and were designed to provide insight into key People’s Republic of …

Weaponizing Risk: Recalibrating Western Deterrence, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph discusses how NATO might better leverage risk to strengthen the alliance’s extended deterrence. Such leverage would prove especially useful because Kyiv is unlikely to be permitted to join NATO and the United States may reduce its presence in Europe. Western analysts have not given Russian deterrence enough credit for the alliance’s deterrence failure on February 24, 2022. The alliance did not act fecklessly, nor did it self-deter. Rather, NATO’s deterrence measures were calibrated more for hybrid/gray-zone attacks of the sort it saw in 2014, not for the large-scale combat operations the alliance witnessed in 2022, which involved a …

More Than A Numbers Game: Comparing Us And Chinese Landpower In The Pacific Requires Context, Brennan Deveraux, Joshua Arostegui

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph establishes a contextual baseline that serves as the framework for future comparisons of the US Army and the People’s Liberation Army Army. It examines differences in five key components of land warfare: the two nations’ landpower definitions, uses of land forces to build relationships, underlying warfare concepts, associated modernization efforts, and varying approaches to simulating land warfare in the region. In examining these components, the authors identify warfare intangibles that highlight analytical findings in a way that promotes future research. The existing scholarship comparing the two forces is often limited in scope, focusing on funding or comparing capabilities …

Integrating Artificial Intelligence And Machine Learning Technologies Into Common Operating Picture And Course Of Action Development, C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher John Hickey

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

C. Anthony Pfaff and Christopher John Hickey, Principal Investigators

©2025 C. Anthony Pfaff. All rights reserved.

Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Technologies into Common Operating Picture and Course of Action Development explores the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning to revolutionize military planning processes by enhancing situational awareness and expediting course of action development within the Joint planning process. The study delves into technical, organizational, and resource considerations that are critical for AI integration. In addition, the study highlights the importance of clean, structured data in training AI systems, addresses challenges in data collection across varying formats …

Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Us Army War College

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Maintaining strategic advantage demands professional discourse from across the force. The Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of Defense’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 15 sections organized into four enduring themes. This survey of regional, domestic, and institutional challenges represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 100 command-sponsored questions from 43 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of Defense. Combined, the …

Cognitive Defense: 2024 Homeland Defense Symposium

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

©2025 Mark R. Landahl – Chapter 1

©2025 George M. Schwartz – Chapter 3

The US Army War College hosted the inaugural annual Homeland Defense Symposium from February 6 to 8, 2024, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Reestablishing the Sanctuary,” featured plenary presentations on defending critical infrastructure, contested deployment, and cognitive defense by experts from military, academic, and government organizations.

As highlighted in the conference theme, attendees recognized the homeland does not provide the sanctuary it once did, and our society is already under attack. Using disinformation and social media means, our adversaries are engaged in cognitive warfare …

Thompson’S Rifle Battalion: The Original Unit Of The Army Of The United Colonies (Now The United States Regular Army), John A. Bonin

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

©2025 John A. Bonin

Although 1775 is indisputably the birth year of the US Army, two events occurred on June 14 of that year to which the Army can credit its birthday. One is the adoption by the Continental Congress of the collective militia forces from several colonies outside Boston to form a Continental Army, of which Congress appointed George Washington the commander in chief on June 15, 1775. In addition, the US Regular Army officially dates its beginning to June 14, 1775, when the Second Continental Congress directed 10 companies of expert riflemen to be raised immediately in Pennsylvania, …

Assessing The Zeitenwende: Implications For Germany, The United States, And Transatlantic Security, John R. Deni, Marina E. Henke, Aylin Matlé, Sophia Besch, Tim Bosch, Loyle Campbell, Angela E. Stent, Jeffrey D. Rathke, Theresa Luetkefend, May-Britt U. Stumbaum, Sharon De Cet

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Chapter 1 - ©2025 John R. Deni. All rights reserved.
Chapter 2 - ©2025 Marina E. Henke. All rights reserved.
Chapter 3 - ©2025 John R. Deni. All rights reserved.
Chapter 4 - ©2025 Aylin Matlé. All rights reserved.
Chapter 5 - ©2025 Sophia Besch. All rights reserved.
Chapter 6 - ©2025 Tim Bosch. All rights reserved.
Chapter 7 - ©2025 Angela E. Stent. All rights reserved.
Chapter 8 - ©2025 Jeffrey D. Rathke and Theresa Luetkefend. All rights reserved.
Chapter 9 - ©2025 May-Britt U. Stumbaum and Sharon de Cet. All rights reserved.

The essays in this volume analyze …

Toward A More Effective Dod Contribution To Strategic Competition In The Western Hemisphere, R. Evan Ellis

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

©2025 R. Evan Ellis

Innovative new thinking on the security dimension of the challenges posed by the PRC’s engagement in Latin America and the DoD’s role in the whole-of-government US response is needed. This monograph highlights risks from PRC influence networks, digital architectures, and dual-use commercial facilities in the region, particularly at ports and in the space sector; shows how PRC economic engagement and other support sustains illiberal regimes, indirectly contributing to the risks these regimes pose by hosting criminal and terrorist groups and other US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and illustrates how commercial, people-to-people, and security engagements …

Pretexts For War And The Preinvasion Crisis In Ukraine, Ron Gurantz

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

©2024 Ron Gurantz

The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts. This monograph presents an exhaustive study of the US military, diplomatic, and informational strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine and derives lessons about counterjustification that …

Bargaining For Justice: Ukraine, Gaza, And The Ethics Of Conflict Termination, C. Anthony Pfaff

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

©2024 C. Anthony Pfaff

As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a …

The Role Of America’S European Allies In The Russia-Ukraine War, 2022–24, John R. Deni, Lisa A. Aronsson

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

©2024 John R. Deni

What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national security and fulfilling their NATO commitments. They also explore what the Russia-Ukraine War reveals about the role of European allies in future iterations of strategic competition. Their findings indicate European …

Satellites In The Russia-Ukraine War, Ron Gurantz

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory …

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Army Commander For Admiral Chester W. Nimitz 1943–45, James D. Scudieri

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

This monograph analyzes Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.’s service as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945. It focuses on the theater-strategic level when Richardson led US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. This study highlights the context of Richardson’s operating environment beginning with prewar plans, the realities of early wartime defeats, and the state of joint operating procedures. It assesses Richardson’s accomplishments in exercising Landpower in the Pacific, across the entire range of today’s Army war-fighting and Joint functions and discusses the …

A Call To Action: Lessons From Ukraine For The Future Force, John A. Nagl, Katie Crombe

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

John A. Nagl, Project Director
Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff

This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the …

Emerging Technologies And Terrorism: An American Perspective

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society.

A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial …

Decisive Decade: Prc Global Strategy And The Pla As A Pacing Challenge – 2023 Pla Conference – Updated And Expanded

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations.

The conference papers better defined the notion of the PLA as a pacing challenge as evidenced by PRC strategies and activities in various regions to build a much stronger appreciation of how PLA operations in …

International Competition In The High North: Kingston Conference On International Security 2022

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The 16th annual Kingston Consortium on International Security conference, “International Competition in the High North,” took place on October 11–13, 2022, in Kingston, Ontario, Canada. The conference examined the Arctic region in the context of ongoing climate change and against the backdrop of war in Ukraine. Over the past several years, the United States has acknowledged the growing importance of the Arctic as a strategic region, and the Department of Defense and each of the US military services have published Arctic policies or strategies. In addition, the Department of Defense has created a new regional study center, the Ted Stevens …

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War In The Taiwan Strait, Jared M. Mckinney, Peter Harris

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The likelihood China will attack Taiwan in the next decade is high and will continue to be so, unless Taipei and Washington take urgent steps to restore deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This monograph introduces the concept of interlocking deterrents, explains why deterrents lose their potency with the passage of time, and provides concrete recommendations for how Taiwan, the United States, and other regional powers can develop multiple, interlocking deterrents that will ensure Taiwanese security in the short and longer terms. By joining deterrence theory with an empirical analysis of Taiwanese, Chinese, and US policies, the monograph provides US military …

The Future Role Of Strategic Landpower, Philip F. Baker, Gregory L. Cantwell, Timothy L. Clark, Gregory R. Foxx, Justin M. Magula, Curtis S. Perkins, Kirk A. Sanders, Timothy A. Sikorski, Carl L. Zeppegno

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower. This publication serves as part of an enduring effort to evaluate strategic …

2023 Annual Estimate Of The Strategic Security Environment, Usawc Ssi

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment serves as a guide for academics and practitioners in the defense community on the current challenges and opportunities in the strategic environment. This year’s publication outlines key strategic issues across the four broad themes of Regional Challenges and Opportunities, Domestic Challenges, Institutional Challenges, and Domains Impacting US Strategic Advantage. These themes represent a wide range of topics affecting national security and provide a global assessment of the strategic environment to help focus the defense community on research and publication. Strategic competition with the People’s Republic of China and the implications of …

Americans And The Dragon: Lessons In Coalition Warfighting From The Boxer Uprising, Mitchell G. Klingenberg

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

©2023 Mitchell G. Klingenberg

Drawing from archival materials at the US Army Heritage and Education Center and the United States Military Academy at West Point, numerous published primary sources, and a range of secondary sources, this monograph offers an overview of the China Relief Expedition from June 1900 to the moment of liberation in August. Its considerations range from the geopolitical to the strategic and down to the tactical levels of war. US forces partnered alongside the combined naval and land forces of multiple nations, thus constituting the first contingency, expeditionary, and multinational coalition in American military history. In the …

China’S Future Military Capabilities, Roger Cliff

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America identifies China as the “pacing challenge” for the US military. This monograph examines the process by which China’s military capabilities are developed, the capabilities China’s military is seeking to acquire in the future, and the resulting implications for the US military. To date, all the extant studies have merely described the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army is currently acquiring. This monograph goes further by drawing on the Chinese military’s publications to identify and discuss the capabilities the People’s Liberation Army seeks to acquire in the future. The monograph finds …

Trusting Ai: Integrating Artificial Intelligence Into The Army’S Professional Expert Knowledge, C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, Brett A. Carey

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy. Complicating matters is AI-driven systems can be a “black box” in that humans may not be able to explain …