Defense and Security Studies Commons^™

The 2002 National Security Strategy: The Foundation Of A Doctrine Of Preemption, Prevention, Or Anticipatory Action, Troy Lorenzo Ewing

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, initiated a strategic shift in American national security policy. For the United States, terrorism was no longer a distant phenomenon visited upon faraway regions; it had come to America with stark brutality.1 Consequently, the administration of President George W. Bush sought to advance a security strategy to counter the proliferating threat of terrorism.

The ensuing 2002 National Security Strategy articulated the willingness of the United States to oppose terrorists, and rogue nation-states by merging the strategies of "preemptive" and "preventive" warfare into an unprecedented strategy of "anticipatory action," known as the Doctrine of …

An Epistemological Inquiry Into The Incorporation Of Emergency Management Concept In The Homeland Security With A Post-Disaster Security Centric Focus, Mehmet Secilmis

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The historical roots of the Emergency Management concept in the U.S. date back to 19th century. As disasters occurred, policies relating to disaster response have been developed, and many statuary provisions, including several Federal Disaster Relief Acts, conceptually established the framework of Emergency Management. In 1979, with the foundation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), disaster relief efforts were finally institutionalized, and the federal government acknowledged that Emergency Management included mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery activities as abbreviated 'MPRR.'

However, after 2000, the U.S. experienced two milestone events - the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and Hurricane Katrina …

Developments In The Global Energy Markets And Constructing The Future Of The Persian Gulf Security, Nihat Cengel

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This study analyses the global energy projections and regional dynamics in the Persian Gulf. It is shown that the future projections in the world energy markets signify the importance of cooperation between developed and developing countries. It is also suggested that connected to the global economic crises and the regional demand change in the energy market, there is a growing need for international support to the Persian Gulf security.

I argue that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could play a crucial role for eliminating political conflicts and maintaining the regional stability. As a result, collective arm transfer to the region, …

Towards Managing And Understanding The Risk Of Underwater Terrorism, Richard J. Gay

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation proposes a methodology to manage and understand the risk of underwater terrorism to critical infrastructures utilizing the parameters of the risk equation. Current methods frequently rely on statistical methods, which suffer from a lack of appropriate historical data to produce distributions and do not integrate epistemic uncertainty. Other methods rely on locating subject matter experts who can provide judgment and then undertaking an associated validation of these judgments.

Using experimentation, data from unclassified successful, or near successful, underwater attacks are analyzed and instantiated as a network graph with the key characteristics of the risk of terrorism represented as …

Risk Quadruplet: Integrating Assessments Of Threat, Vulnerability, Consequence, And Perception For Homeland Security And Homeland Defense, Kara Norman Hill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Risk for homeland security and homeland defense is often considered to be a function of threat, vulnerability, and consequence. But what is that function? And are we defining and measuring these terms consistently? Threat, vulnerability, and consequence assessments are conducted, often separately, and data from one assessment could be drastically different from that of another due to inconsistent definitions of terms and measurements, differing data collection methods, or varying data sources. It has also long been a challenge to integrate these three disparate assessments to establish an overall picture of risk to a given asset. Further, many agencies conduct these …

Identifying Factors That Influence Terrorist Decisions And Target Selection, Barry C. Ezell, Joshua Behr, Andrew Collins

VMASC Publications

Currently, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) elicits probabilistic judgements from the intelligence community on actions terrorists may take to attack the continental U.S. For example, how likely is the adversary to choose agent 'x' over 'y' or target 'a' over target 'b'? Eliciting these types of judgements is difficult and time consuming. The National Academies and others have suggested that a better approach may be to elicit information on adversary's preferences, perceptions, and capabilities and use this information to calculate probabilities of interest to DHS. Some terrorist groups are thinking about using weapons of mass destruction (WMD), each …

Delayed-Bang Approach Towards More Sustainable Critical Infrastructure Risk Management, C. Ariel Pinto, Michael K. Mcshane, Abhishek S. Pathak

Finance Faculty Publications

This article describes the Delayed Bang Approach for determining the value of risk management alternatives in critical infrastructure security. The discussion includes (1) the need for sustainable risk management (2) the importance of time valuation in evaluating competing loss prevention and loss reduction alternatives, (3) the convergence of deterministic engineering economics, survivability analysis, and probabilistic analysis, and (4) hypothetical examples of the Delayed-Bang Approach and significance towards more sustainable risk management.

Maturing International Cooperation To Address The Cyberspace Attack Attribution Problem, Jeff J. Mcneil

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

One of the most significant challenges to deterring attacks in cyberspace is the difficulty of identifying and attributing attacks to specific state or non-state actors. The lack of technical detection capability moves the problem into the legal realm; however, the lack of domestic and international cyberspace legislation makes the problem one of international cooperation. Past assessments have led to collective paralysis pending improved technical and legal advancements. This paper demonstrates, however, that any plausible path to meaningful defense in cyberspace must include a significant element of international cooperation and regime formation.

The analytical approach diverges from past utilitarian-based assessments to …

Challenges For Human, Social, Cultural, And Behavioral Modeling, S. K. Numrich, Andreas Tolk

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

Today's military focus has moved away from the force-on-force battlefield of the past century and into the domain of irregular warfare and its companion security, stability, transition and reconstruction missions. With that change in focus has come a need to examine the operational environment from a wider perspective, one that includes the whole range of human experiences and circumstances. As the set of factors and list of players expands, the need for reliable modeling and simulation increases, if for no other reason than to help the human decision maker make sense of this expanded decision space. However, to do this, …

The Tale Of Two Narratives: Nato As A Collective Defense And A Collective Security Institution, Anna M. Rulska

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

The goal of this project is to determine NATO's present and future roles as a collective security organization and as a security alliance. In the past, NATO has dealt with both objectives under different and changing conditions. This paper argues that throughout the entirety of its history, NATO worked as both collective security and collective defense organization. The theoretical assumptions made within the paper are supported by the analysis of the past behavior of the Alliance in respect to the relationship between the narrative of collective security and that of collective defense, and changes within that relationship. Four specific periods …

A Military Surge In Afghanistan -- Modeling A Focused Security Effort, Brent David Morrow

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Theses & Dissertations

In October of 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan and ousted the Taliban government. Since their overthrow, the Taliban has pieced together and waged an insurgency to retake Afghanistan. That insurgency has gained momentum and grown in strength while the United States NA TO counterinsurgency effort has decreased in size to about 55,000 troops in 2007. Many factors contribute to the insurgency inside of Afghanistan, from ethnic to economic factors to the failure of the central government. This research used a study of the current state of affairs in Afghanistan and agent-based modeling to determine whether a military troop surge …

Terrorism: A Study Of The Policy Preferences Of Old Dominion University Students, Bruce Johnson Ii

Sociology & Criminal Justice Theses & Dissertations

Following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, there have been many different approaches to terrorism utilized by the U.S. government. While sometimes it is obvious which ones are popular and which ones are not, often it is not clear. With this in mind a survey was posted and taken by 151 ODO students. The survey asked how much they supported various terrorism policies and quizzed them to see how knowledgeable they were regarding terrorism. It was found that the students who responded to the survey were generally very knowledgeable about terrorism. It was also found that almost every policy received …

Harmonizing Bml Approaches: Grammars And Data Models For A Bml Standard, Dietmar Kunde, Thomas Orichel, Andreas Tolk, Ulrich Schade, Michael R. Hieb

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

Battle Management Language (BML) is being developed as an open standard that unambiguously formalizes and specifies Command and Control information, including orders and reports built upon precise representations of tasks. BML is a language specification, based on doctrine and consistent with Coalition standards. The goal of BML is to enable and improve the interoperability in the C2 area, especially by enabling also the military communication with simulation systems and future robotic forces.

Although the need for BML is well documented, a SISO standard has still not been achieved. At present, there are two recommended approaches focusing on different aspects. In …

Applying The Information Age Combat Model: Quantitative Analysis Of Network Centric Operations, Sean Deller, Shannon R. Bowling, Ghaith A. Rabadi, Andreas Tolk, Michael I. Bell

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

The nature of and the approach to command and control is evolving in order to meet the challenges of Information Age warfare. One of the main tasks of command and control is the arrangement of the assets within a combat force in order to ensure their ability to manage and exploit information. Connectivity between the various assets represents existence, capacity, reliability, and other attributes of links establishing the connectivity. The Information Age Combat Model was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can lead eventually …

Exploring Primitives Of Meaning In Support Of Interoperability, Charles D. Turnitsa, Andreas Tolk, Robert Kewley

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

Semantic mismatch between systems is due, in part, to the grouping together of terms who have defined meaning in different levels of granularity, and which are composed together into different groupings by distinct systems. It has been proposed that making use of elemental concepts (referred to here as primitives of meaning) can assist in interoperability, but seeking to define all terms at a level of granularity equal to or greater than that of all involved systems.

By decomposing a system’s groups of composed terms into primitives of meaning, the building blocks that can be reassembled into the compositions required by …

Applying Model-Based Data Engineering To Evaluate The Alignment Of Information Modeled Within Jc3iedm, Msdl, And Matrex-Fom, Anil Ustun, Andreas Tolk, Saikou Diallo

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

The need for a common representation of entities and their relations to support the easier composition and federation of independently developed solutions in support of the user has been identified and addressed in several papers presented during recent simulation interoperability workshop. One of the underlying assumptions is that standards derived from the same conceptual domain can easily be converted into each others, as they deal with the same concepts. In a project conducted for the U.S. Army’s Program Executive Office (PEO) Soldier, three of such solutions for military operations (with focus on the land forces) were utilized to capture the …

Geo-Rectification Of Aerial Images For Detecting Changes In Terrain, Diana Vincent

Electrical & Computer Engineering Theses & Dissertations

With increasing terrorist attacks around the world, detection of hidden bombs like IEDs (Improvised Explosive devices) has become very important. The main aim of this thesis is to develop an automatic change detection system to detect changes in terrain. It is mainly used in military applications for protection of military convoys. In order to detect the presence of IED's, an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) is flown over a proposed convoy route to develop a baseline scene. Prior to the launch of the convoy the UA V is flown again over the same route to detect any significant scene changes that …

Pivotal Deterrence And United States Security Policy In The Taiwan Strait, Charles D. Pasquale

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation presents a model of pivotal deterrence—a version the author loosely terms holistic pivotal deterrence—based on the model originally presented in Crawford's Pivotal Deterrence: Third-Party Statecraft and the Pursuit of Peace, and applies it to a regional case study of U.S. security policy in the Taiwan Strait; placing particular emphasis on the crisis junctures of 1954-55, 1958, 1962, and 1995-96. By contrasting this with other models of deterrence, it provides an alternative perspective with which to consider the empirical data on the United States-China-Taiwan relationship and developments in the Strait. By viewing the data through this lens, this …

Water, Development, And State Security In South Asia: Scenarios For China And India, Ray Chandrasekara, John M. Polimeni

Reconstruction: Studies in Contemporary Culture

Conflict over water resources is rare and has not occurred for thousands of years. However, the dynamics in South Asia are changing so rapidly that a conflict in the not-so-near future may be unavoidable. Water shortages could have the nonlinear effects of food shortages, political instability, migration problems, and diminished economic growth. All of these factors, caused by water shortages, could be a driver of conflict in the region, causing territorial disputes. Global instability would be sure to follow as both the U.S., attempting to protect their national security interests, and China, reacting as the regional power, tries to intervene. …

Common Data Administration, Data Management, And Data Alignment As A Necessary Requirement For Coupling C4isr Systems And M&S Systems, Andreas Tolk

Computational Modeling & Simulation Engineering Faculty Publications

Within the application domain of military simulation systems, training and exercises as well as support to real operations require the coupling of the simulation system delivering the needed functionality with the Command, Control, Computing, Communications, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) system providing the necessary data. The solution to this challenge is to build appropriate interfaces. Although in long term a more integrated approach will be necessary, in short and mid term, gateways and interfaces are likely to remain the standard. However, in order to succeed with the respective efforts, at least on the data level of interoperability, a common solution …

East European Security Revisited: Institutions, Power, And Security, Blagovest Tashev

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Drawing on the literatures on democratization, security studies, and small states this dissertation explores the relationship of small states' domestic and international institutionalization and their security. Small states have limited power not only to affect their environment but also to guarantee national security. Small states, it is hypothesized, enhance their security through the consolidation of domestic institutions and the accumulation of capacities provided by their participation in capacity-reach international institutions.

The dissertation tests the hypothesis by applying the comparative method to the post-communist states of Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, and Lithuania. The three case studies analyze the effects of domestic …

Latin American-United States Security Relations And The Power Asymmetry Divide, Matthew R. Slater

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Security relations between Latin American and the United States are generally well explained by hegemonic stability theory. Succinctly stated, hegemonic stability theory explains that in systems with a hegemonic power there is a greater likelihood of security cooperation. This is because a hegemon provides public goods, such as a stable currency or security from outside interference, and in turn, the less powerful states acknowledge the leadership of the dominant state. When compared to other regions it is readily apparent that the U.S. and Latin America do not have major security issues on the level of East Asia, the Middle East, …

Fighting "Don't Know, Don't Care": The Fcda's Public Education Quest, Rachel M. Mihalovich

History Theses & Dissertations

The Federal Civil Defense Administration (FCDA) was created in December 1950 to prepare the civilian population of the United States to survive and recover from a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union and its allies. Contemporary civil defense theory dictated that this goal should be met by educating the American public in order to avoid a negative psychological reaction that would prevent survival and recovery. In order to evaluate the success of the FCDA's civil defense program, this study will investigate the composition of the FCDA and its public education program.

This study utilized several types of sources in evaluating …

Nuclear Pariahs And Regimes In The New World Disorder, Wayne F. Lesperance Jr.

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This thesis discusses the role of pariah states vis-a-vis the nonproliferation regime. Specifically, the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) is analyzed to determine, first, whether Iran is a pariah, second, the potential threat the IRI poses to the Persian Gulf region and third, the possible international responses that may be undertaken to address Iranian pariahtude in the nuclear field. Through the course of this thesis regimes are defined as a set of implicit and explicit rules, principles, norms, and decision-making procedures around which actor's expectations converge and which govern relations among states. Pariahs are defined as …

Large Capacity Missile Carrier (Cmx), C. N. Calvano, J. M. Berner, J. M. Bradley, K. A. Tosiello, D. T. Hooker, C. F. Merrill

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

A systems engineering approach to the development of a radically different kind of surface combatant ship is presented, followed by a preliminary design of the ship shown by the analysis to be most effective. The requirement for the project was the development of a ship which would provide a major increase in the missile firepower of a battlegroup. The study conducts an analysis of four warfare scenarios and evaluates the effectiveness of replacing some Aegis ships with the missile carrier (CMX) and examines the relative utility of varying missile loads for the CMX. An alternative is chosen for further development …

Increasing International Military Interdependence: Defense Cooperation In The New World Order, Sheila Callaham-Gay

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This thesis examines whether military interdependence among states is increasing or decreasing. Although it is impossible to predict the future, it can be deduced that military interaction is increasing as a result of current world events and stated Presidential policy objectives. In order for interdependency to reach fruition governments must create policy which allows mutual goals to be realized. If military-to-military programs contribute to U.S. political objectives then government policy toward military interdependence should allow the U.S. military to act as a catalyst for international cooperation as well as the guardian of U.S. security interests. Whether global peace and security …

France And Nato: A Case Of Misunderstanding, Servane Burel

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

In 1966, General Charles de Gaulle partially withdrew France from the integrated military structure of the North Atlantic Treaty organization (NATO). This action represented a climax in the ongoing evolution in French foreign policy. Both sides of the Atlantic failed to understand de Gaulle's actions because of the ambivalent relation between the concept of grandeur in world politics and France's loyalty to the Alliance. Consequently, the partial withdrawal was perceived as a drastic shift in policies exemplifying French "anti-Americanism" and lack of commitment to the Alliance and NATO.

In contrast, this thesis presents this decision as simply a political statement, …

Inter-American Indemnity: Internal Security And The Mutual Security Program For Latin America (1951-1961), Robert George Baker

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

This thesis examines the purpose of U.S. military aid in the American Republics from 1951 through 1961 and proves that concern for internal security became dominant during that period. At first military aid supported hemispheric defense against communist aggression, which Washington orchestrated through mutual defense agreements, but by 1953 maintenance of internal security emerged as the major aim of aid to several Central American nations. In 1956 the National Security Council determined that internal security was a vital goal of the military aid program for Latin America. The ascendance of internal security concerns is described and analyzed in three parts: …

Arctic Leverage: Canadian Sovereignty And Security, Nathaniel French Caldwell Jr.

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

In 1987 the Canadian government recognized that in order to be a major player in collective security with the United States and NATO, it would have to make a significant contribution to the common defense. However. since Canada could not hope to outspend the larger powers, its contribution would have to be leveraged by control of a strategic piece of real estate -- the Canadian Arctic. The major program to enhance Canadian control of the Arctic would be the acquisition of ten-to-twelve nuclear attack submarines. That submarine force was sold to the public and Parliament as a means to enhance …

Civilian Air Defense Of Norfolk, Virginia, During The Second World War, Larry E. Tonneson

History Theses & Dissertations

This thesis traces the history of the civilian air defense program in Norfolk, Virginia, between October 1941 and December 1943. It evaluates the capability of Norfolk's civilian air defense organization to respond to attacks by the German Luftwaffe and assesses the effectiveness of Norfolk's civilian air defense organization in mobilizing and preparing the public for such attacks. The major source documents for this paper include the Norfolk War History Commission papers and the three community newspapers: The Virginian-Pilot, the Norfolk Ledger-Dispatch, and the Norfolk Journal and Guide.

Norfolk's civilian air defense organization was unable to maximize the …