Defense and Security Studies Commons^™

Cracks In The Great Wall: Zero-Covid Protests And The Reassertion Of Political Security In China, Khannia Zhafira Ronaulli Pandjaitan, Arfin Sudirman

Jurnal Wacana Politik

The protests of the zero-COVID policy in 2022, which led to the issuance of Ten New Measures in China, are an interesting political phenomenon to study. This phenomenon raises questions about the dynamics of China’s political security during the zero-COVID policy period and how the government responded to the social pressures that arose. Applying political security theory that emphasizes national objectives, threat perceptions, and political freedom of action, this article analyzes China’s political dynamics during that period. This article concludes that political security for a country is often realized through various actions justified to protect national interests and maintain social …

Just War Theory And Coercive Non-Proliferation: Ethically Evaluating Nuclear Prevention Efforts, P. Walker Jacklin

Honors Theses

This thesis examines the ethics of coercively addressing non-nuclear states who are attempting to acquire nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons pose a serious danger on a global scale, so ethical analysis should balance these consequences with the coerciveness of state intervention. Just War Theory provides a useful framework that balances these considerations.  Using the criteria of Just War Theory, this thesis examines two 21st century non-proliferation operations: Operation Orchard and Operation Midnight Hammer. I find that Operation Orchard fails the criteria of Just War Theory, while Operation Midnight Hammer satisfies the criteria. Making this determination is ethically risky, however, because our …

The Weaponization Of Transnational Crime: A Triangular Analytical Model For Hybrid Threat Development In U.S.–China–Russia Relations, 2000–2025, Michael J. Haak

Senior Honors Theses

This thesis examines the evolving strategic relationship between the United States, China, and Russia from 2000 to 2025 through a triangular model based on reactions to systemic pressures to core strategic interests. The study employs a thematic qualitative data analysis on U.S., Chinese, and Russian national security strategies to analyze strategic posturing between poles over time. This new model serves as the study’s basis for contextualizing hybrid threat development, specifically transnational crime as a proxy force of asymmetric power projection. The study found that the evolution of state-supported transnational crime serves as a by-product of reactions to systemic pressure. State …

China-Canada Resource Diplomacy: New Era Of Land Grabbing, Valdrin Dragusha

Bridges: An Undergraduate Journal of Contemporary Connections

This paper examines the evolving economic relationship between China and Canada, particularly in the context of China's transition from a strictly social economy to an authoritarian socialist market economy. It highlights the implications of China's Going Out Policy initiated in 2000, aimed at securing vital natural resources amidst growing domestic demands driven by rapid economic expansion. The paper analyzes China's significant demand for resources, its sustainable development policies, and the changing dynamics of land acquisitions, particularly in relation to Canada, which is perceived as a strategic investment destination due to its abundant natural resources and technological advancements in clean energy. …

The Use Of Cognitive Biases In Russian Cyber Operations, Emma Manning

Honors Theses

This thesis examines how Russia has employed reflexive control through cyber operations to influence decision-making in foreign states, focusing on disinformation campaigns during the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Reflexive control, a concept rooted in Russian military doctrine, seeks to shape an adversary's perceptions and decision-making by providing carefully crafted information that leads targets to make choices favorable to the initiator. This research argues that while the fundamental objectives of reflexive control have remained consistent, technological advances have significantly expanded Russia's ability to conduct operations in developing cyber domains.

Using qualitative analysis of open-source intelligence, …

Next-Generation Democratic Cyber Statecraft - Balancing The Signal: Shutdown Shocks And Democratic Digital Governance, Scott M. Di Panni

School of Public Policy Capstones

This paper develops Next-Generation Democratic Cyber Statecraft (NG-DCS), a unified strategic doctrine for democratic governments to contest the cognitive domain against authoritarian adversaries. Drawing on twenty-six years of cross-national panel data (1999–2024) spanning 213 countries, game-theoretic modeling, and qualitative case analysis, the paper establishes three interconnected empirical and theoretical foundations. First, cross-national OLS regression across 160+ countries demonstrates that regime type is the dominant structural determinant of internet freedom (R²=0.615, β=2.513, p< 0.001), explaining more than twice the variance attributable to per-capita wealth (R²=0.268). Democratic governance, not economic development, produces open digital environments. Second, a two-way fixed effects (TWFE) difference-in-differences study exploiting government-ordered internet shutdowns as discrete policy interventions finds that digital restrictions causally degrade V-Dem governance quality by 0.21–0.38 standard deviations (p< 0.001 across all specifications). Treatment effects are immediate (β=−0.302 at k=0) and persist through five post-treatment years (β=−0.246 at k=+5), indicating structural rather than transitory governance damage. Parallel trends validation (p=0.352) and Callaway–Sant’Anna heterogeneity-robust estimation (ATT=−0.230, SE=0.077) support causal identification. Instrumental variable triangulation (2SLS β=−0.949, p=0.005) confirms that simultaneity was attenuating, not inflating, the primary estimates. Third, formal game-theoretic analysis reveals that the current U.S.–adversary equilibrium is (Restrain, Escalate)—the risk-dominant but Pareto-inferior outcome of a Stag Hunt structure. China, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela each occupy structurally distinct positions (Stackelberg commitment, asymmetric two-level, autarky, and reactive trigger, respectively), requiring differentiated doctrinal responses rather than a uniform strategic playbook. Generative AI and algorithmic governance are shown to accelerate cognitive vulnerability by collapsing influence operation costs and exploiting engagement-optimized platform architectures that systematically degrade deliberative capacity in democratic populations.

The Necessity Of U.S. Aid: The Russian-Ukrainian War, Lelin Spriggs

The Dialogue

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the conflict has emerged as a defining foreign-policy challenge of the twenty-first century. In the United States, the war dominates political discourse and continues to shape debates on national security and the appropriate scope of American global leadership. Although President Trump vowed during his campaign to end the war upon entering office, hostilities intensified following his inauguration, prompting renewed policy debates regarding the future and extent of U.S. military and economic support for Kyiv.

This paper argues that the United States must continue providing sustained military and economic …

A National Security Strategy For The Middle East, Vanessa Rice, Rudy Torres, Addy Horgan, Joy Omosa, Mark Westfall

School of Public Policy Capstones

This National Security Strategy addresses the persistent national security challenges the United States faces in the Middle East, a region vital for global energy supply, economic connectivity, and a source of anti-American extremism. Recognizing the failures of past "haphazard experimentation," the strategy proposes a thoughtful, pragmatic plan prioritizing five distinct and congruent interest areas: Maintaining Regional Access, Supporting Regional Stability, Ensuring Energy Security, Defending American Citizens and Personnel, and Preserving and Protecting Western Ideals. The strategy outlines actions such as: countering Chinese and Russian influence through intelligence sharing and defense incentives; containing Iran via a new, permanent nuclear deal and …

Strategic Knowledge: Innovation, Technological Sovereignty, And Geopolitical Competition, Chick Edmond

Knowledge and Creativity Expo

The Twenty-First Century's Shift in Advanced Technologies as Instruments of Economic Growth to central pillars of geopolitical competition States are increasingly using technologies such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum computing, biotechnology and digital infrastructure not simply as commercial assets but as strategic resource bases to enhance their national security and global influence. This paper will examine how innovative systems have been incorporated into broader geopolitical competitions creating "strategic knowledge politic”. This paper dwells on International Political Economy (IPE), Security Studies and Innovation Theory literatures to analyze the changing concepts of technological sovereignty and their implications for the global order. The …

Combating Iuu Fishing In The South American Pacific: An Opportunity To Counter Chinese Influence Closer To Home, Alexander E. Goodno

Joint Force Quarterly

A relatively small enterprise that began three decades ago in response to dwindling Chinese squid fisheries, China’s South American distant water fishing fleet has grown exponentially to now number nearly 500 vessels and creates a growing problem for the Pacific coastal nations of South America. By establishing itself at the forefront in combatting illegal, unregulated, and unreported fishing (IUUF) activities off the Pacific coast of South America, the United States can strengthen its role as a leader in the Western Hemisphere and counter growing Chinese influence in South America. This paper will demonstrate how America can achieve this end by …

The Cyber Deterrence Dilemma: Parallels Between Cyber And Intelligence Special Operations, Jorge R. Kravetz Msc

Joint Force Quarterly

The dilemma of cyber deterrence, alongside its potential failures, has gained increasing academic attention, though its parallels with traditional special operations remain less examined. Cyber and special operations—often covert activities involving espionage, sabotage, and subversion, generally linked to strategic or military intelligence—typically evade standard deterrence mechanisms. Drawing on a theoretical framework of deterrence, academic literature, historical cases, and qualitative analyses, this article argues that deterrence tends to fail when deterrers manage to destabilize an adversary without causing significant strategic impacts on the target’s power, economic, or social dynamics, as well as on international relations. Retaliation, shaped by implicit agreements or …

From The Editor In Chief, C. Anthony Pfaff

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Spring 2026 issue of Parameters, which consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Clausewitz and Modern Warfare, Operational Considerations, and Historical Studies), and the Strategic Competition Corner.

Strategic Rivalries: How Are They Won?, Antulio J. Echevarria Ii

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues strategic rivalries—distinct from general strategic competition—are best understood as contests in which states prioritize weakening a specific opponent’s capacity to compete. It departs from existing work by critiquing the Joint Concept for Competing’s narrow definition and by emphasizing rivalry termination as a central but understudied dimension. Drawing on decades of international relations scholarship and historical datasets of interstate rivalries since 1815, the article analyzes how rivalries end and identifies strategic preclusion as a proactive approach for winning them. Its insights offer policy and military practitioners guidance for shaping competitive strategies short of war.

Book Reviews, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Parameters Spring 2026, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Imitating Us Doctrine Cost Europe Its Heavy Combat Power, Bence Nemeth

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues that Europe’s loss of heavy combat power is primarily the result of doctrinal shifts influenced by the United States, rather than underfunding alone. Unlike existing research that focuses on defense budgets or burden-sharing, this study isolates the opportunity costs of adopting US-based expeditionary and counterinsurgency doctrines. Using force structure data for Canada, Germany, and the United Kingdom (1990–2022), it conducts a counterfactual analysis of lost tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and heavy artillery pieces. The article shows that Europe’s shortfalls are doctrinal as much as fiscal and highlights the relevance of maintaining balance in future doctrinal choices.

Approaching The Military As A Profession Through The Clausewitzian Trinity, Adam T. Biggs

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The Clausewitzian trinity (people, government, and military—or passion, reason, and chance) can enhance existing scholarship and discussions about military professionalism by emphasizing the fundamental purpose of military forces. Specifically, managing chance incorporates elements of reducing uncertainty and applying creativity as individuals develop coup d’oeil. Junior personnel manage chance by reducing cognitive load while enhancing cognitive skills needed to quickly assess battlefield conditions as they progress to becoming senior leaders. This article contrasts these ideas against the various roles assigned to civil-military forces in the Clausewitzian trinity to emphasize professionalism in developing military leaders.

Spezialpropaganda: The East German Military’S Covert Information-Warfare Program, Joe Cheravitch

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article details the East German military’s extensive, innovative covert-propaganda program, which was designed to influence West German attitudes for almost two decades during the Cold War. Unlike existing scholarship that primarily addresses intelligence-led disinformation, this study exclusively analyzes military-led information warfare. The article uses previously classified East German military records to examine capabilities and tactics ranging from fake conscription notices to radio broadcasts. The findings offer contemporary US military planners and practitioners insight into the complexities of integrating information-warfare capabilities, measuring the effectiveness of propaganda, and understanding adversarial influence campaigns, with direct implications for current Joint Force planning and …

Strategic Theory And Clausewitz’S Trinitarian Test, Lukas Milevski

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Carl von Clausewitz’s trinity represents a qualitative test for strategy in both theory and practice. With the trinity, Clausewitz transforms competing influences into a mark of theoretical quality. Synthesizing several translations of Clausewitz’s On War and interpretations by experts such as Hew Strachan, Antulio J. Echevarria II, and Frank G. Hoffman, this article suggests that Clausewitz believed that good theory encompasses and accounts for all fundamental forces of war, whereas bad theory emphasizes the extremes of one force. The trinity compels mandatory considerations for students of theory, war planners, and practitioners.

The 2024 Carlisle Conference On The Pla: Protracted War Against The Prc, Joshua Arostegui

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference featured keynote speakers from the US Department of Defense and the think-tank community, and panels focused on assessing the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of and capability to carry out a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific. The conference brought together over 100 participants from government, military, US Intelligence Community, academic, and think-tank organizations.

The conference papers were authored by expert speakers and panelists and were designed to provide insight into key People’s Republic of …

Forecasting Budget Requirement For Indonesian Arms Modernisation With International Cost Escalation (Ice), Curie Maharani, Reyhan Noor, Sandy J. Pratama, Ganesh A. Wicaksono

Global: Jurnal Politik Internasional

In 2021, the question "How much is enough" emerged in national debate following the plan of the then Indonesian Defence Minister, Prabowo Subianto, to allocate 1.7 quadrillion Rupiah for military modernisation from 2020 to 2045. This article follows up on this debate by recommending a budget forecasting model for the weapons acquisition requirements of the Indonesian National Defence Forces (TNI) during the period 2025 to 2044. The model is built by considering International Cost Escalation (ICE), which is the increase in the unit cost of successive generations of similar weapons, causing a steady increase in the price of weapons systems …

Restoring The Organization For The Security And Cooperation In Europe’S Role In Human Rights And Security After Russian Invasion, Roman Nekoliak

Human Rights Brief

This Article diagnoses a systemic erosion of rights-based multilateralism driven by geopolitical realignment, reduced leadership by traditional human rights defenders, the rise of authoritarian coalitions, and the growth of transactional and securitized diplomacy. This Article argues that revitalizing the Organization for the Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) around a rights-centered, cross-dimensional concept of security is essential to restoring both regional stability and the credibility of international human rights commitments. It places the war in Ukraine within broader patterns of democratic backsliding, institutional paralysis, and the rise of authoritarian governance, demonstrating how domestic repression and interstate aggression mutually reinforce one …

Deterrence Without Peace: Nuclear Weapons And The Rising Threshold Of Warfare, Catie Clarke

CISLA Senior Integrative Projects

Nuclear weapons fundamentally changed the international political landscape, leading to the emergence of deterrence theory and the notion of the Long Peace. This paper challenges these claims, arguing that nuclear weapons facilitated a more violent and volatile international system rather than stability. Drawing on constructivist theory, this paper develops the Threshold of Violence framework – a normative model which asserts that nuclear weapons elevated the perceived upper limit of tolerable violence in international politics. This raised threshold generated three trends in the nuclear era: increased frequency of proxy wars, escalating levels of benefactor involvement, and greater severity of conflicts fought …

Africa As A Strategic Arena: How Great Power Rivalry Is Reshaping Security Governance, Chick Edmond

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The rising importance of Africa as a key battleground in great power rivalry is an important shift in global politics that will have significant impacts on security governance in Africa. This article will explore the ways in which increased competition between the U.S., China and Russia will affect African states and regional organizations, and how economic dependency, regional security architecture and diplomatic strategy will influence the overall security environment in Africa. Using recent case studies and academic research, along with current policy analysis, it will analyze whether or not African countries and regional organizations will be able to mitigate potential …

Nuclear Deterrence And The Security Dilemma In A Complex Multipolar World, Chick Edmond

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

Objectives: The purpose of this research project is to examine how nuclear deterrence intersects with the concept of security dilemma, i.e., when a state takes an action intended to increase its own security it may inadvertently create a risk or threat to another state and contribute to increased levels of tension. Fourth, how nuclear and conventional systems are becoming increasingly interconnected, which will serve to potentially amplify risks associated with these systems.

Methods: Utilizing a qualitative analytical approach of documents such as national strategy documents, defense policy statements and historical records of crises dating from 1945-2025, the study identifies four …

Northern Luzon In A Taiwan Flashpoint: The Philippines’ Place In U.S. Strategy, Carson Keller

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

While the defense of Taiwan from a potential invasion by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has long been a topic of debate and scrutiny in U.S. strategic thinking, the role of its southern neighbor, the Philippines, has received far less attention. This thesis argues that northern Luzon would constitute key terrain in a cross-strait conflict and may become an early target of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations. Its proximity to Taiwan and position along the Luzon Strait, particularly the Bashi Channel, places it at the center of efforts to control access to the hypothetical battlespace. Drawing on PLA and …

Fear, Memory, And Deterrence: Reassessing Nuclear Peace In The 21st Century, Nathan H. Schroeder

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This research investigates the paradox of nuclear peace theory: the idea that nuclear weapons, despite their destructive capacity, have contributed to a more stable global order. By tracing the historical development of nuclear arsenals and the strategic logic of deterrence, the project examines whether the post-1945 decline in large-scale wars between superpowers and wartime deaths can be attributed to the threat of mutual annihilation. It also explores the psychological and cultural consequences of this deterrence-based peace, including the normalization of fear and its potential link to desensitization toward violence in younger generations. From Cold War-era school drills to modern apocalyptic …

Revenge Of The Interceptors? The Dod, Congress, And The Return Of Space-Based Missile Defense During Trump 45, Chad Mcelroy

CMC Senior Theses

The initiation of the Golden Dome for America program has brought space-based missile defense (SBMD) to the forefront of American national security policy and rekindled debates that had laid dormant since the administration of President Ronald Reagan. How, forty-two years after President Reagan first proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative, did SBMD return as a national priority? In lieu of public information about the ongoing Golden Dome initiative, this thesis explores the first Trump administration, otherwise known as Trump 45, in order to analyze the development of SBMD proposals by its proponents in Congress and the Department of Defense. I used …

Lessons Unlearned: Cultural Competence And The Limits Of U.S. Army Doctrine In Iraq And Afghanistan, Kylie W. Ha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how the absence of comprehensive cultural and linguistic competence within U.S. Army doctrine contributed to operational and ethical failures during the wars in Iraq (2003–2011) and Afghanistan (2001–2021). It focuses on the gap between doctrinal recognition of culture and language and the failure to institutionalize these elements as measurable, force-wide competencies. The thesis analyzes doctrinal publications spanning the period from 2001 to 2014 and finds that, while these publications increasingly acknowledged the importance of cultural awareness, language, and local context—particularly in counterinsurgency operations—these elements were not embedded as standardized requirements across training, planning, or evaluation. Iraq and …

Europe In The Indo-Pacific - Implications For The United States, Joshua G. Zinicola

Graduate Theses/Dissertations

Within the last five years the Indo-Pacific has become a region of increasing interest to European NATO members. In particular, the United Kingdom, France, and Italy have assigned strategic importance for their national security to the region, signing cooperative agreements with regional allies of the United States and deploying significant forces to the region. These agreements include commitments to jointly develop new technologies and combat systems for employment in both Europe and the Indo-Pacific, such as the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP), and the Trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (AUKUS). They also include …