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Flashpoints In Small State Diplomacy: The Effects Of Strategic Alignment, Democratic Norms, And Domestic Support In Ukraine And Taiwan On Us Commitments, Cooper T. Wilson

Senior Theses

In the field of international relations, the fate of small and mid-sized nations is often analyzed through the lens of great power politics, but this perspective misses half of the story. In this paper, I ask the question: what factors internal to smaller states affect their ability to court Western support? I compare the cases of Ukraine and Taiwan, as both are geopolitical flashpoints with a much larger aggressor, are widely researched for their implications on the global balance of power, yet lack sufficient research regarding their own actions on the world stage. Looking at the history of both states …

Srad Director's Corner: Us Army War College Russia-Ukraine War Study Project, Eric Hartunian

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College is analyzing the operational events and activities of the Russia-Ukraine War to understand the war’s strategic implications for the US Army and its role within the NATO Alliance. Analysis will further inform theater and national US strategy and may benefit Army doctrine and concepts vis-à-vis the Russian threat. It will also examine how US and allied defense policies should adjust to the current character of war. Lessons learned from Ukraine are relevant to the evolving challenge in the Pacific in the near term and are opportunities for the United States …

Never Enough: Eu Military Spending Challenges In The Face Of Open Conflict, Katherine Wallentine

The Journal of International Relations, Peace Studies, and Development

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent a jolt of tension and anxiety throughout the European Union, as well as the rest of the world. Lawmakers and strategists scrambled to find a suitable response in the immediate aftermath and now, a year later, the conversation continues as to what the best course of action is for the EU. Should it amplify and radically increase its supranational defense budget and if so, how should it accomplish this monumental task? How much of it should fall on the Member States to meet the two percent threshold as laid out by …

The Black Sea Matters Too: Understanding Türkiye’S Role In The Black Sea Region Through The Turkish Straits According To Regional Security Complex Theory, Allison Hart

Theses and Dissertations

This paper first establishes the Black Sea as a region according to regional security complex theory then defines Türkiye’s role within the region and the impact that the Turkish Straits have on maintaining regional security. Through constructivist approaches and regional security complex theory the paper critiques previously defined concepts pertaining to Türkiye’s role in the region and outlines perceived security threats within the Black Sea region. The use of threat perceptions as a means for analysis provides a unique constructivist approach on regional security complex theory allowing for a grounded research approach to regionalism in the Black Sea. The threat …

United States Foreign Policy And The Additions Of Sweden And Finland To The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Kara Gwendolyn Broene

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Following the reemergence of Russia as an aggressive power to the east and the invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, Sweden and Finland have decided to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). With the additions of Sweden and Finland, the security dynamic of the Baltic will change. The United States (US) has been the backbone of NATO since the Soviet Union, fell and as such, NATO has continued to be a major part of US foreign policy (USFP). If Finland and Sweden join NATO, then one of three scenarios will occur within USFP: (1) USFP in the Baltic …

Bigger Is Better? Re-Evaluating Nato Enlargement In The Post-Cold War Period, Matthew Mccracken

Senior Honors Theses

Since the end of the Cold War, the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance has grown substantially from its pre-1990 boundary between the two Germanys to encompass 15 new members with its border pressing eastward toward the former Soviet states and up to Russia proper. At the same time, East-West relations have sunk from a high point in the 1990s to a new low unseen since the Cold War culminating in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Top-ranking officials on both sides of the Atlantic cautioned successive U.S. administrations against heedlessly seeking to admit new members into NATO for fear that it …

Countering Terrorism On Tomorrow’S Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security And Resiliency (Nato Coe-Dat Handbook 2), Sarah J. Lohmann, Lucas M. Cox, Denise Feldner, Trevor P. Helmy, Frank J. Kuzminski, Marcus Mohlin, Aleksander Olech, Wuraola Oyewusi, Gabriel T. Raicu, Silke Ruhl, Sabrina Schulz, Máté Tóth, Megan A. Ward

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing …

Securing Russia: Seeking Ontological Security In The Arctic, Brian W. Cole

Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced an abrupt discontinuity in its sense of identity. This break in identity, and a more profound lost sense of self, creates a strong need to reestablish continuity. The need to regain that sense of self is strong and can supersede other concerns. Ontological security theory proposes that the need to maintain identity can outweigh physical security considerations. This study uses game theory methodology and the Arctic as a contextual example to demonstrate that ontological security-seeking actors are willing to sacrifice physical security. Today, the current conditions in the Arctic reflect a …

New Ways Forward To Promote Peace In The Face Of Russia's Invasion, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

"Escalating Russian Cyber Attacks Could Risk Widening the War in Ukraine" by R. Atkinson and E. Simpson discusses the increasing cyber operations conducted by Russia against Ukraine. It details numerous cyber attacks on Ukrainian government networks and critical infrastructure, including the deployment of destructive malware such as WhisperGate and FoxBlade. These operations are part of a coordinated effort between cyber and conventional military strategies. The document emphasizes the need for NATO and its allies to enhance their cyber defenses to counter these threats and prevent potential escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine's borders .

The document "New Ways Forward to …

‘Vox Populi?:’ Assessing Nato Popularity Relative To Political And Economic Indicators In Selected Member Nations, Zachary W. Cheek

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper seeks to identify the impact of political and economic conditions on a nation’s popularity/favorability ratings towards North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the world’s most powerful military alliance. It is found that in random-effect models there exists a significant positive relationship between a country’s democratic strength and favorability, as well as a negative relationship regarding unemployment. In fixed-effect models, however, there is slight evidence of a positive relationship with per-capita GDP, as well as negative relationships with the unemployment rate and the trade index. Overall, differences in member-nations largely account for whether democratic or macroeconomic conditions influence support.

Canada Must Strongly Support Marshall Plan 2.0, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

"Canada Must Strongly Support Marshall Plan 2.0" discusses the urgent need for a modernized Marshall Plan to aid Ukraine amidst the ongoing conflict with Russia. The proposed plan aims to rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure, promote sustainable energy solutions, and enhance food security in alignment with the UN's Sustainable Development Goals. The document highlights the critical role of international cooperation, with Canada positioned as a key leader in mobilizing support and resources. It emphasizes the necessity of immediate and substantial financial investment to prevent further devastation and foster a vision of peace and reconstruction for Ukraine.

The War In Ukraine Will Have Global Consequences, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The crisis in Ukraine has shown NATO’s commitment to its members while treating Ukraine and Georgia as partners. NATO won’t fight directly on Ukrainian soil but will protect its allies. The invasion has caused a major refugee crisis, with millions fleeing to neighboring countries like Moldova and Romania.

Countries like Canada are preparing to accept many Ukrainian refugees, given their large Ukrainian communities. Western nations are condemning Russia and imposing tough sanctions. There are also fears of nuclear escalation, similar to past Cold War tensions, prompting calls for new arms control talks.

This crisis threatens global peace and democracy, highlighting …

Opportunity To Rid Europe Of Dangerous Nuclear Weapon Systems And Provocative Force Deployments, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The crisis between Ukraine and Russia has brought NATO's role and diplomatic efforts to the forefront. NATO is committed to defending its members and supporting Ukraine and Georgia as partners, though their potential membership remains uncertain and requires consensus among NATO nations.

The conflict has caused a large refugee crisis, with many fleeing to neighboring countries. Diplomatically, leaked documents show NATO's approach to dialogue with Russia through the NATO-Russia Council, focusing on security and democratic issues.

Russia opposes NATO's eastward expansion, citing security concerns and unmet agreements like the 2014 Minsk Protocol. Discussions on reducing military tensions and promoting transparency …

Editorial: Blending Of Delusions In Russia Rationalizing Its War To Annex Ukraine, Paul B. Mojzes

Occasional Papers on Religion in Eastern Europe

While it is obvious that Russia’s motives for the unprovoked brutal war against Ukraine are complex, what is not quickly apparent is the incendiary intermingling of a collective delusion of persecution and the delusion of grandeur of an individual.

Peran Dan Kepentingan North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) Dalam Konflik Perang Sipil Di Libya: Studi Kasus Periode Tahun 2011-2015, Harisuda Murdani, Yon Machmudi

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

The wave of the Arab Spring in the East The Civil War in Libya that occurred in the Middle East in 2011 was felt in Libya. The conflict that started as a demonstration ended in a civil war between the government and the Libyan opposition. NATO's humanitarian intervention is the mandate of the United Nations in the civil war in Libya uses the Responsibility to Protect rule to prevent the conflict from spreading. The presence of NATO as an international community is not only due to concern for Libya but there is an interest of oil resources in Libya. During …

Collige Et Impera: The United States Reengagement In Libya, Marco Schinella

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

President Biden's "America is back" pledge holds the potential to be put to the test with the ongoing crisis in Libya. The internationalization of the post-Ghaddafi Libyan breakdown, strained by great-power competition (GPC) dynamics, poses nonnegligible threats to the United States (US) national security that extends beyond Libya per se. Reframing the conflict from yet another Middle East and North Africa (MENA) conflict to an urgent multilateral Mediterranean security challenge will help elevate the country's profile on the global stage. This thesis outlines a qualitative, within-case study analysis of the ongoing Libyan crisis from the perspective of US national security …

Canadian-Organized Airlift Needed To Bring Food, Medical Provisions To Afghanistan, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The crisis in Afghanistan has raised concerns globally about NATO's role, humanitarian aid, and international responses. As the Taliban took control, questions about aid and refugee flows grew. The U.S. and NATO's withdrawal left behind advanced weapons now used by the Taliban, sparking criticism and discussions on global responsibilities.

Canada's past involvement and current debates on helping Afghans highlight challenges in international intervention and ethical duties. This crisis shows how complex geopolitics and human rights issues can be in conflict zones.

With uncertainty ahead for Afghanistan's future and implications for global security, the crisis reminds us of the challenges and …

Cold Turkey: Will The Recent Freeze In Turkish Nato Relations Spiral Into A Bigger Problem?, Ashlyn Cowell, Reagan Nelson, Paul Prentice, Brent Schuliger, Nathan Waite

Liberty University Journal of Statesmanship & Public Policy

Situated in a strategic location bridging the gap between Europe and Asia, Turkey has been a valuable member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for decades. However, recent events have inflamed underlying tensions between Turkey and other NATO member states. This research seeks to determine if the escalation will cause Turkey to withdraw from the alliance within the next five years. In order to accomplish this, our team conducted both quantitative and qualitative research on current and historical economic, political, and cultural conditions driving the conflict. Following this research, our team synthesized the data using structured analytic techniques (SATs) …

True Leadership Would See Trudeau Attend Nato Summit Virtually As Canadians Await Covid-19 Vaccines, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The text provided highlights criticism of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's attendance at the NATO summit amidst ongoing domestic vaccination efforts. Drawing on the leadership example of Ernest Shackleton, it argues for prioritizing national COVID-19 vaccinations over international summitry. The piece critiques NATO's perceived symbolic nature and lack of substantive debate, contrasting it with Shackleton's leadership style during adversity. It advocates for global vaccine equity and questions the necessity of Trudeau's summit attendance amid completed negotiations.

Us Military Policy In Poland And The Baltics: To Stay Or Not To Stay, Owen Bates

Sigma: Journal of Political and International Studies

No abstract provided.

Nato Expansion Not The Answer As Ukraine Crisis Brews, But Nuclear Weapon Free Zones Needed, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

This abstract examines the escalating tensions between NATO, Ukraine, and Russia amidst accusations of aggressive behavior and militarization in Ukraine's eastern region. It explores NATO's cautious support for Ukraine, emphasizing diplomatic and military cooperation without committing to troop deployments or lethal assistance. The abstract highlights recent diplomatic interactions, including U.S. President Joe Biden's assurance of support and NATO's condemnation of Russia's actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. It also discusses Canada's stance on nuclear disarmament, reflecting public sentiment and advocating for multilateral approaches to regional security challenges.

U.S., Nato Afghanistan Withdrawal Impacts Counterterrorism Operations, Progress For Afghan Women, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

This abstract discusses the abrupt decision by the United States and NATO allies to accelerate the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by September 11th, coinciding with the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. Framed as an effort to conclude America's longest war, the withdrawal reflects shifting priorities and challenges, including financial strains and global health concerns amid COVID-19. It examines the impact on Afghanistan's security landscape, the potential resurgence of the Taliban, and the plight of women and children in a country marked by ongoing conflict and instability. The abstract also explores geopolitical implications and the broader strategic recalibration within …

Temple Of Peace : International Cooperation And Stability Since 1945, Ingo Trauschweizer

Ohio University Press Open Access Books

This collection raises timely questions about peace and stability as it interrogates the past and present status of international relations.

The post–World War II liberal international order, upheld by organizations such as the United Nations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and similar alliances, aspired to ensure decades of collective security, economic stability, and the rule of law. All of this was a negotiated process that required compromise—and yet it did not make for a peaceful world.

When Winston Churchill referred to the UN framework as “the temple of peace” in his famous 1946 Iron Curtain speech, he maintained that international …

Conditions-Based Negotiations, Renewed Nato Troop Commitments Needed In Afghanistan, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The article discusses the necessity of a conditions-based approach for U.S. troop withdrawals from Afghanistan, rather than adhering to a strict timeline. The current situation in Afghanistan is fragile, with the Taliban showing no incentives to compromise and ongoing violence claiming numerous lives. NATO defense ministers recently reaffirmed their commitment to the mission in Afghanistan, emphasizing the importance of renewed and smaller troop commitments. The Afghan government's involvement in peace talks with the Taliban has not yielded significant breakthroughs, as procedural issues dominate the discussions. The article criticizes former U.S. President Donald Trump's inconsistent strategies and highlights the potential risks …

Canada Still Has Obligation To Participate In Good Faith In Negotiations On Nuclear Disarmament, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The article emphasizes Canada's ongoing responsibility to actively engage in nuclear disarmament negotiations. Despite NATO's collective opposition, there is a call for Canada to consider the humanitarian impact of nuclear weapons and support the UN Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). The TPNW, endorsed by 122 nations, aims to establish a legally binding process to ban nuclear weapons, yet Canada and its NATO allies voted against it. The treaty reached the necessary ratifications to enter into force in January 2021, marking a significant step toward global nuclear disarmament. Critics argue that NATO's stance does not absolve its members …

Trump Administration’S Drawdown Of Troops In Afghanistan Risks Putting Peace, Progress In The Country In Danger, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The conflict in Afghanistan remains one of the world's bloodiest, with ongoing violence from the Taliban, Islamic State, and al-Qaeda. Recent attacks, including a rocket barrage on Kabul's Green Zone and a massacre at Kabul University, underscore the volatile security situation. Despite the U.S.-Taliban peace agreement, the Taliban continue to conduct significant attacks. The Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) struggle to operate independently, necessitating continued support from U.S. and NATO forces. The NATO-led Resolute Support Mission (RSM) and the U.S. Operation Freedom’s Sentinel (OFS) provide essential training, advice, and counterterrorism support. However, the U.S. administration's plans for a …

Security Threats, American Pressure, And The Role Of Key Personnel: How Nato’S Defence Planning Process Is Alleviating The Burden-Sharing Dilemma, John R. Deni

Books, Monographs & Collaborative Studies

In 2017, for the first time since the end of the Cold War, none of the capability targets identified in NATO’s quadrennial NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) were left on the negotiating table. Previously, capability targets were identified by the alliance’s secretariat, but they remained unfilled as allies failed to assume responsibility for them.

This monograph examines the 2014–18 iteration of the NDPP, which represented a stunning turnaround in transatlantic burden sharing. The analysis reveals a combination of factors—the changed threat environment, political pressure from Washington, and the role of “policy entrepreneurs” working within NATO—best explain the alliance’s success in …

Nato Enlargement And Us Grand Strategy: A Net Assessment, Rajan Menon, William Ruger

Publications and Research

NATO did not dissolve following the Soviet Union’s collapse and the end of the Cold War. Instead, the alliance expanded, in stages—from 16 members at its Cold War peak to 30 in 2020. While NATO enlargement alone did not cause the deterioration of US–Russian relations, it did contribute significantly to that outcome. Champions of NATO expansion aver that it maintains peace in Europe and promotes democracy in East-Central Europe. They add that Russia has nothing to fear. But Russia’s leaders have always seen NATO expansion differently. The article also examines NATO’s enlargement as it relates to US post-Cold War grand …

Hybrid Warfare Nato’S Next Headache, Erika Simpson

Political Science Publications

The article discusses the rising challenge of hybrid warfare for NATO, which combines military and cyber attacks. All 29 NATO allies pledged at the 2014 Wales Summit to prepare for such threats, which can target critical infrastructure like banks, businesses, and government systems. Examples include Russia's alleged cyber attacks on Georgia and China's hacking of Equifax. NATO is enhancing its defenses by developing rapid-reaction cyber-defense teams and improving intelligence sharing. However, the complexity of attributing cyber attacks complicates the response. The article underscores the importance of resilience among member states and NATO's efforts to create common guidelines to counter these …

A Partnership At Risk, Simon Serfaty

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

The article focuses on issues regarding transatlantic partnership with urgency of climate change, sharing the impact of a growing migrant crisis, regulating the cyber anarchy, digging out of massive imbalances, and more. It mentions U.S. President Donald Trump's approach about the world is four-dimensional and improbable promise of a bilateral trade agreement with Great Britain. It also mentions Trump's consensus to re-embrace the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, with the expectation of a broader round of multilateral negotiations with Iran; a return to the Paris Treaty on Climate Change, with shared goals of further progress in many of its …