Political Economy Commons^™

5th International Annual Conference Proceedings: A New Global Order, Yet Again, Centre For Business And Economic Research (Cber), School Of Economics And Social Sciences (Sess)

Conference Proceedings

The School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS) and the Center for Business and Economics Research (CBER) at the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi, are pleased to announce the 5th International Annual Conference on "A New Global Order, Yet Again" In an era marked by geopolitical realignments, technological innovations, green transitions, climate change, and evolving trade dynamics, the global economic landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. Developing economies today face multifaceted challenges: leveraging new opportunities in a decentralized global system while managing debt insolvency risk, uncertainties in international trade, climate change vulnerabilities, and rising socioeconomic inequality.

This conference seeks …

Fiscal Decentralization And Education Index; Evidence From Punjab Pakistan, Noor Ahmed

CBER Conference

Disparities in the distribution of public services have persisted throughout Pakistan's history. Current research on regional development has stressed the need of evaluating human development phenomena using spatial models such as density, locality, and distance. The study investigates how fiscal decentralization influences the education index at the district level in Pakistan's Punjab province. The research is based on the education index, which has five components. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) integrates these variables to provide a final education index. The study's findings revealed that the significant positive effects of fiscal decentralization on the education index at the district level depend …

Impact Of Multilateral Aid On Female Access To Education And Employment: A Spatiotemporal Analysis Of World Bank (Wb) Aid Projects In Pakistan, Muhammad Ashar Khan, Zashir Naqvi, Saba Nisar Soomro

CBER Conference

Since becoming a member in 1950, Pakistan has received around $40 Billion in development assistance from the World Bank (World Bank, 2023). The current portfolio under the ongoing assistance program includes 58 projects, amounting to about $15 Billion across different provinces and districts (World Bank, 2023). A number of these projects, especially pertaining to economic inclusion, are centered around fostering women's empowerment for sustainable and inclusive economic growth and ending extreme poverty in developing countries. According to WB’s “Gender Strategy 2030”, in line with Sustainable Development Goal 5, one key feature of its assistance is to help overcome “resource” and …

Computational Calculation Of Sovereign Default Probabilities: Pakistan's Case, Salman Zaffar

CBER Conference

This paper uses Black-Scholes-Merton model to quantitatively assess sovereign debt sustainability of Pakistan. Both the International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank have separately proposed applying Black Scholes-Merton model to calculate the sovereign default risk. Historically, the Black-Scholes Merton Model has been used to analyze corporate default risk. Both the sovereign and corporate default risk calculation are based on contingent claims approach which calculates risk by reading the sovereign and corporate balance sheets, respectively. Thus, in light of the proposition by these two financial bodies this paper calculates the default probability of Pakistan in 2001-2022. As the efficacy, it is …

G3 Cpec Summit ‘21 - Cpec: Emerging Geo-Political And Geo-Economic Landscape Opportunities And Challenges, China Study Centre, Institute Of Business Administration, Nasir A. Afghan, Huma Naz Baqai, Ans Dahr

China Study Centre - Research and Reports

In the wake of recent developments in the region, specifically US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the role of new Afghan government in regional connectivity and economic integration, IBA China Study Centre commenced one-day day hybrid summit on “CPEC: Emerging Geo-political & Geo-economic Landscape Opportunities and Challenges”

The aim of this one day summit was to explore and identify the future opportunities and challenges for China Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s economic, information, and trade corridor. Our objective was first to understand the challenges faced by the Afghan government in Afghanistan. Also, to brainstorm and find the common and shared areas for future …

3rd Annual International Conference Proceedings: Challenging Linearity, Centre For Business And Economic Research (Cber), School Of Economics And Social Sciences (Sess)

Conference Proceedings

As we live in an era where the knowledge landscape is rapidly changing and becoming more complex, answering age-old questions about our society, economy, and environment has become more challenging today than ever before. In the wake of this change and challenge, falling back on linear and myopic conclusions is sometimes all too irresistible. A fatigue of imagination that leads to easy answers seems to be prevalent within several disciplines and is sometimes driven by ideological biases. Resultantly, the progress in addressing economic disadvantage, social isolation, and discrimination, psychological distress remains suboptimal often because of linear conceptual frameworks which fail …

Annual Report 2021 – 22: China Study Centre Iba Karachi, China Study Centre, Institute Of Business Administration

China Study Centre - Research and Reports

Pakistan has a longstanding relationship with the People’s Republic of China, as Pakistan was the first country to recognize it. Over time, the strategic and economic relationship between both the countries have been strengthening through various joint projects, with China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) being an exemplary project. CPEC is China’s 15-years old, $62 billion investment in Pakistan. Moreover, the flagship project of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) took a five-decade-long strategic alliance between the two countries to the economic sphere in 2015. CPEC is best seen as an economic peg in terms of broader strategic relationships between both countries. …

The Impact Of Covid-19 On Stock Market And Exchange Rate Uncertainty In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Mannan Zaheer

Business Review

This paper examines the impact of coronavirus (COVID-19) on exchange rate (EXU) and stock market uncertainty (SMU) in Pakistan while controlling for the effects of interest rate and policy interventions by the Government and the Central bank to combat the pandemic. We employ the vector autoregressive (VAR) model over a sample period ranging from February 25, 2020 to May 6, 2021. We find that a shock to total daily coronavirus cases in Pakistan has a positive and significant impact on both the EXU and SMU. However, this impact is short-lived which may be attributed to a timely policy response and …

The Macroeconomic Impacts Of Government Debt In Pakistan, Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Kaneez Fatima, Junaid Kamal

Business Review

This paper examines the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis for Pakistan using a vector error-correction model. The sample period extends from June 2002 to January 2020. The results are reported using variance decompositions and impulse response functions. The base model contains six variables and is estimated with 4 lags. We find support for the idea that wealth does not increase as government debt increases; Hence, it proves the fact that economic agents are rational actors and foresee current expansionary actions of the government that result in accumulation of debt as the present value of future taxation that they have to pay and …

Sustainable Economic Development In The Post-Covid Era In Asia And The Pacific, Yasuyuki Sawada

CBER Conference

The second day of the 1st International Conference at the CBER, IBA Karachi commenced with an opening address by the Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Mr. Yasuyuki Sawada. Speaking about the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus and how it has destabilized the economic outlook and widened existing social inequalities, impacting lives and livelihoods of millions in Asia-Pacific region and beyond, Sawada remarked, “Regional GDP contracted by 0.2% in 2020 with East Asia faring much better. After a sharp contraction last year, growth in South Asia will rebound in 2021. However, the recovery will be uneven”. Dr. Sawada’s …

Global Dominance Potential Of Chinese Corporations, Javed A. Ansari

Business Review

Thispaper assesses the corporate strength of Chinese firms in the global market and addresses the question: does China's growing corporate strength indicate a rise in its global influence, or, in other words, what are the prospects for the emergence of capitalism with Chinese characteristics as the new dominant paradigm. It finds that Chinese corporations have significantly improved their global profit share in several sectors during 2007-2013. Many of these corporations are Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that play a dominant role. Summarizing a recent case study of Chinese SOE strategy in the Zambian copper belt it provides evidence for close interaction …

Us Policy Of Technology Transfer To China, Amna Mehmood, Sadaf Farooq

Business Review

Hans Morgenthau defined international politics as the struggle for power among nations. Initially power was understood in terms of security and military supremacy only. But time has proved that military power is only effective when it is supported by a strong economy. Especially in post-Cold War era when the world is transforming from uni-polar to multi-polar world on the basis of competing economic centres, political economy has attained equal importance at par with the international security studies, if not more. One of the most important and sensitive area of international political economy is technology transfer, a life bloodfor modernization of …

A Curious Study Of China, Sana Khalil

Business Review

China seems well-positioned in terms of innovation output; nonetheless, have underperformed with regards to innovation input which presents a very curious case for study. I investigate the determinants of China's cross-regional innovation output and link the variations in innovation output with the level of economic development. Using panel dataset from 31 regions of China, I show that the differences in China's regional innovation output can significantly be explained by variations in R&D manpower and expenditure, share of highly educated students, and public education spending. Additionally, domestic patent stock, high-tech export share and output value of new products are positively and …

Book Review Of: Why Nations Fail, Ashutosh Mani Dixit

Business Review

The purpose of this article is to assess the contribution of Why Nations Fail about its forefront claim that institution is exclusive determinant of nation’s economic outcome. This paper will examine its findings and put forward arguments and claims of prominent studies about economic development. The paper has been organized in two more section. Immediate section presents chapter wise summary of the book highlighting strengths and key outcomes. While the third section, which is the purpose of the article, offers a critique, than sums up in final section providing some concluding comments.

Defense Expenditures And Economic Growth In Pakistan And India: An Augmented Feder-Type Model, Muhammad Ramzan Sheikh

Business Review

To discover defense-growth nexus, this study has used Feder type model to capture the supply-side impacts for Pakistan and India. In Feder-type model, this study has used four sectors to find out total effects of defense spending on growth by using OLS technique. The findings of the study show that there is positive association between the total effect of defense and growth in all the sectors for both the countries. In augmented Feder type model, the total effects along with externality effects and productivity differential have been re-estimated. The sign of the total effects of defense sector remain the same …

Explaining China’S Economic Performance From The Perspective Of Non-Conventional Determinants, Jingjing Yang, Sana Khalil

Business Review

We analyze forecasts concerning China’s growth slow-down and future prospects concerning its economic performance. Extending the discussion on China’s possibility of going through a slow-down in future, we focus on the avoidance of such a possibility by drawing forth the role of gross capital formation, trade openness, higher education enrollment ratio, higher education expenditure, R&D expenditure, population growth and number of inventions in determining per capita income. These non-conventional determinants: number of inventions, government R&D expenditure, higher education enrollment ratio and higher education expenditure, show not only significantly positive link with per capita income but also exhibit strong explanatory power …

Political Economy Of Budget, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

The anticipation about national budget creates a lot of hype, particularly among the news channels, which have swollen in numbers and work in a highly competitive environment. However, by the time the actual budget is announced most of the information becomes already available in the public domain through trickles and dribs. The budget announcement, itself, comes as an anti-climax as it does not contain much that is not already known. Commentators and observers make superficial points about the realism of the budget targets and numbers. What is really important is to understand the dynamics and the context — particularly, the …

Economic Cost Of Instability, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

BROADLY speaking,Pakistan’s economic policies in the 1960s and since 1977 have been fairly consistent, although their execution has left much to be desired.

So, considering that the thrust of economic policy has been fairly constant (except for nationalisation in the 1970s) the variations in economic output need to be explained.

The dominant narrative ofPakistan’s tumultuous and uneasy political journey since independence has comprised the precarious nature of civil-military relations that have caused severe damage to democracy in the country. This is true. However, what needs to be added to this narrative is the enormous cost to the economy in view …