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Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel Jan 2025

Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary …


Monetization Of Fiscal Deficits And Covid-19: A Primer, Aidan Lawson, Greg Feldberg Jan 2021

Monetization Of Fiscal Deficits And Covid-19: A Primer, Aidan Lawson, Greg Feldberg

Journal of Financial Crises

Monetization—also known as “money-financed fiscal programs” or “money-printing”—occurs when a government finances itself by issuing currency or other non-interest-bearing liabilities, such as bank reserves. It poses real risks—potentially excessive inflation and encroachment on central-bank independence—and some paint it as a relic of a bygone era. The onset of the COVID-19 crisis, however, forced governments to spend heavily to combat the considerable economic and public health impacts. As government deficits climbed, monetization re-entered the conversation as a way to avoid the massive debt burdens that some nations may face. This paper describes how monetization works, provides key historical examples, and examines …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2014, Central Bank Of Nigeria Jan 2014

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2014, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

Annual Report and Financial Statements of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the year ended 31st December, 2014. In general, 2014 has been a very eventful and challenging year for the Bank, the country, and the world at large. In the course of the year, the Bank underwent significant changes in its governance composition. In 2014, the global economy witnessed considerable vulnerabilities characterized by fragile growth and weak economic outlook. Global growth recovery was modest and continued to be threatened by strong downside risks, as a result of sharp drop in commodity prices, escalating geo-political tensions, and heightening threats …


Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 2009

Central Bank Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December, 2009, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for the Year Ended 31st December, 2009 revealed that the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 6.7% YoY, compared to 6.0% in the previous year. This growth was driven by the non-oil sector, with the non-oil GDP growth rate of 8.3%. Within the non-oil sector, the agricultural sub-sector grew by 6.2%, while the whole-sector and retail sectors recorded growth rates of 11.5 and 10.5 per cent, respectively. The robust output recorded during the previous three years was driven by the government's optimism, which reflected in the oil …


Understanding Nominal Anchor: A Case Study Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, A. Bamidele Sep 2008

Understanding Nominal Anchor: A Case Study Of Central Bank Of Nigeria, A. Bamidele

Bullion

As a country's monetary authority, a central bank is responsible for the conduct of monetary policy. This onerous process begins with developing a plan of action of employing interest rates or controlling the money stock to influence the economy. The focus of monetary policy is to safeguard the value of the domestic currency in terms of what it can purchase as a basis of providing a framework for the achievement of wider government economic objectives of non-inflationary economic growth, employment, stable exchange rate, favourable balance of payments and more generally a stable financial environment for the economy. In view of …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2007, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 2007

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2007, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 2007, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) faced significant challenges in monetary management due to statutory allocations to government tiers, autonomous foreign exchange inflows, and pre-election spending. These challenges were addressed through Open Market Operations (OMO), issuance of treasury securities, standing facilities, and foreign exchange swaps. The introduction of the monetary policy rate (MPR) in December 2006 moderated inter-bank rates, encouraged trading, and improved the transmission of monetary policy actions. The Bank intensified its non-regular management activities to ensure the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) target was met. The financial system at end-2007 comprised the CBN, the Nigeria Deposit Insurance …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2006, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 2006

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2006, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

This Report reviews the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and macroeconomic developments during the fiscal year 2006 and appraises the major economic policy outcomes during the period. The Bank reported a stable foreign exchange market in 2006, with an average effective official exchange rate of N 128.65 per U.S dollar, an increase of 2.6% over 2005. The stock of external reserves, valued at US$12.30 billion, was 49.6% higher than in 2005, driven by high crude oil prices and lower debt-service burden. The reserves were equivalent to 28.4 months of import cover, exceeding the 6 months requirement under …


Entral Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1989, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1989

Entral Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1989, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Nigerian economy showed improvement in 1989 compared to 1988. Economic Growth: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 4.0%, driven by growth in agriculture and industry. The overall balance of payments moved from a deficit to a surplus, largely due to a significant increase in crude oil exports. The unemployment rate declined slightly, with more jobs created through government programs. Nigeria's external assets increased significantly, reflecting a deliberate policy to build official reserves. Inflation: Despite some improvement, inflationary pressures remained high, with domestic prices rising by 40.9%. Stagnant Manufacturing: Manufacturing production grew at a slow pace due to high production …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1986, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1986

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1986, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1986 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1986. The development in 1986 were mixed. The GDP at constant 1977/78 factor cost was estimated at N25,290 million, representing a decline of 3.3 per cent and the decline was largely due to poor performance of the manufacturing, crude petroleum, wholesale and retail trade sectors. The trajectory of monetary aggregates was relatively in the download direction. Money supply indicated a 1.2 per …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1966, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1966

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1966, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for 1966 discussed the economic performance of Nigeria with emphasis on inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. The state of the Nigerian economy in 1966 was dictated mainly by the social and political uncertainties that engulfed the country beginning in 1965. The country experienced mounting political problems in 1965, which, by the fourth quarter of that year, had become an important factor in the future investment plans of the business community. A growing burden of external debt and the slow-down …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1965, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1965

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1965, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for 1965 discussed the economic performance of Nigeria with emphasis on inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. Two major developments dominated the world economic scene in 1965. One was the overall slowdown of economic expansion in most industrialized countries. The other was the overall contraction in the growth rate of world trade and in the flow of international capital. Due to the problem of balance of payment disequilibrium, the industrialized countries intensified economic measures to achieve internal stability and equilibrium …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1964, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1964

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1964, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1964 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1964. Export earnings of the developing countries rose during 1964, reflecting a continuing upswing in economic activity in the industrial countries. The rate of increase, however, was somewhat slower than in 1963. The share of the developing countries in total world exports in 1964, however, amounted to 22.1 per cent as compared with 22.9 per cent in 1963. World exports rose substantially …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1963, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1963

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1963, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for 1963 discussed the economic performance of Nigeria with emphasis on inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. Nigeria's economy made significant gains in 1963. The tempo of activity advanced in most sectors of the economy, giving indications of some recovery from the slackened pace of the preceding year. Despite this improvement, however, the performance of the economy did not meet expectations, nor were existing resources fully utilized. In 1962-63, gross income received by producers of agricultural export commodities rose by …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1961., Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1961

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1961., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for 1961 discussed the economic performance of Nigeria with emphasis on inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. Economic activity, which had been at a relatively high level during the year of independence, expanded further during 1961. The production of most of the agricultural export commodities attained high levels during the 1960-1961. Mineral production varied widely among individual products but on balance activity was considerably higher in 1961 than in the previous year. Industrial production continued to grow, reflecting both the …


Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Period Ended 31st December 1960, Central Bank Of Nigeria Dec 1960

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Period Ended 31st December 1960, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1960 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. The banking system was relatively well developed with increase in bank deposits to 70 million Pounds. Also, the number of bank branches increased from 44 to 200. The development indicated growth and broadening of the banking system. The domestic publicly issued debt of the Federal Government consists of 300,000 Pounds. Nigeria Government Registered Stock 1956/61 which was due to be redeemed in December …