Other Economics Commons^™

The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

The Legacy Of Housing Discrimination: Asthma Disparities In California Cities, Taylor Daetz

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the effect of discriminatory housing policy on current asthma rates in California cities. This study uses boundary design and propensity score methodologies to analyze asthma-related emergency department visits in census tracts with corresponding appraisal grades from the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation maps. The results indicate significantly higher asthma burdens in grade D (redlined) census tracts compared to grade C tracts, even when controlling for present-day pollution concentrations, with historically redlined tracts experiencing an average of 26.88 additional emergency department visits per 10,000 residents. The analysis further reveals disparities between grade C and B neighborhoods, suggesting that even …

High ‘Steaks’: Does Lone Star Tick-Induced Red Meat Allergy Reduce Cardiovascular Disease-Related Hospitalizations?, Raj Parekh

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, I investigate the relationships between Lone Star Tick-induced Alpha-Gal Syndrome (AGS), red meat consumption, and cardiovascular health outcomes within New York State's 62 counties from 2012 to 2021. The analysis examines whether AGS, which forces individuals to reduce red meat consumption, serves as a natural experiment in understanding dietary impacts on cardiovascular disease (CVD). Leveraging panel data, I utilize Fixed Effects (FE) and Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) regression frameworks to disentangle the relationships between red meat expenditure, meat prices, Lone Star Tick prevalence, and health outcomes such as CVD, stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart attack hospitalization …

Do Inclusionary Zoning Ordinances Restrict Housing Supply: An Instrumental Variable Approach Using Evidence From California, Liam James

CMC Senior Theses

Do inclusionary zoning (IZ) ordinances restrict the supply of housing, putting undue upward pressure on prices? Using an improved version of the California Coalition of Rural Housing database, we use OLS and 2SLS methods to estimate the effect of IZ policies on supply. In demonstrating the endogeneity of OLS, we address this concern through the use of differences in two-party voter registration as an instrument for the presence of an inclusionary zoning ordinance. We find no evidence consistent with a clear restrictive effect of these policies.

Electric Vehicles: Exploring The Granularity In California Zip Codes, Hans Melvern Kasim

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies a number of factors that affect electric vehicle (EV) sales in California. In comparison to previous papers, this paper examines EV sales at a higher granularity by using zip code level data. My model utilizes a panel fixed effect to examine factors like income, energy prices, commute time, number of chargers and tax rebates. The results show that the number of chargers (specifically DC fast), commute time, and tax rebates have the greatest statistically significant effects on EV sales in California. Furthermore, I utilize an empirical specification - a conditional logit model accounting for zip code fixed …

Driven By Change: The Impact Of Macroeconomic Shifts And Covid-19 On New Vehicle Sales, Jackson Aldrich

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors and the COVID-19 pandemic on new vehicle sales. In order to address these two topics, a two-pronged approach was used with separate regression models. The macroeconomic variables include monthly supply of new homes, CPI for urban public transportation, unemployment rate, disposable personal income, inflation expectation, consumer sentiment, average gas prices, and total vehicle miles traveled which were regressed on total vehicle sales from 1978-2022. The regression results confirmed and supported current literature and highlighted the importance of the housing market and unemployment rate on new vehicle sales. The COVID-19 pandemic model variables …

Guns And Fatal Police Shootings: Accuracy Of Firearm Prevalence Proxies In A Panel Data Analysis, Corin Elmore

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores the relationship between gun prevalence and fatal police shootings in the United States. Specifically, the study assesses the validity of using FSS (Firearm Suicides Per Total Suicides) as a proxy for gun prevalence. It examines whether FBI background check data can be a more reliable alternative. Through a panel data analysis, the study provides moderate evidence that FBI background check data performs better than FSS as a proxy for gun prevalence and that the relationship between firearm prevalence and fatal police shootings is positive. Additionally, the study finds that instrumenting FSS with background check data to account …

A Philosophical And Empirical Investigation Into Buddhist Economics, Hannah Doyle

CMC Senior Theses

There is a growing body of literature on Buddhist economics from a philosophical perspective; however, no work to date has sought to empirically validate it as an effective economic theory at a global scale. In my paper, I draw on the long history of Buddhist metaphysics to construct an account of Buddhist ethics and then proceed to derive a set of Buddhist economic principles. I draw on the World Happiness Report’s methodology to quantitatively demonstrate the relationship between Buddhist economic principles and the psychological wellbeing of a country’s citizens, as measured through their own evaluation of their quality of life …

Impact Of Recessions And The Business Cycle On Altruism, Nicolas De Mello

CMC Senior Theses

I examine how recessions and the business cycle impact the time individuals allocate to altruism, using American Time Use Survey data from 2002-2019. The aim of the paper was to create a measure of altruism to explore changes in attitudes towards charity and altruism instead of the financial ability to do so. Additionally, I want to understand how economic shocks, such as recessions, impact behaviors and habits across the US population. Using ordinary least squares and the Tobit model, I created two models to capture both changes during and after recessionary periods. The first model is a regression of individuals’ …

Impact Of College Extracurricular Involvement On Entrepreneurial Outcomes, Emily Malech

CMC Senior Theses

Despite extensive inquiry, relatively little is understood about the factors which shape entrepreneurs as young adults. This paper examines the impact of college extracurricular involvement on the entrepreneurial outcomes of alumni; it considers which extracurricular activities are most strongly associated with entrepreneurship. Additionally, it explores whether the number of extracurricular activities participated in by students impacts their proclivity for entrepreneurship. It observes 219 alumni of Claremont McKenna College and uses data from the institution’s public records as well as alumni’s LinkedIn profiles. This data contains information on entrepreneurship, indicated by job titles, and five extracurricular activities. Using a probit model …

Nft-Related Companies: Token Sale Returns, Robert Liu

CMC Senior Theses

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) have emerged as a new means of digital asset ownership and many companies are building projects that revolve around the technology. These companies are blockchain-based and raise capital for their projects through cryptocurrency token sales, which have become a new mechanism of entrepreneurial finance. In a sample of 62 NFT-related companies, I examine which company, fundraising, and token sale process characteristics are associated with the performance of 7-day and 60-day market returns after a token’s public listing. A multivariate regression analysis finds that the total amount of capital raised before a token launch has a negative relationship …

The Impact Of Production Budgets On Theatrical Vs. Non-Theatrical Revenues In The Movie Industry, Naveen Shastri

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis discusses the impact of movie production budgets on various revenue ratios. An OLS regression equation was created that compares the production budget of a movie to one of three movie revenue ratios. These ratios can be attributed to the relative elasticities of each revenue metric (domestic DVD sales, domestic box office revenues, and foreign box office revenues). Among other results, it seems that the elasticity for domestic DVD sales was relatively greater than the one representing domestic box office revenues. Also, foreign box office elasticities were relatively larger than either domestic revenue variable. These results imply different trends …

Returns To Buying Winners And Selling Losers: A Look At Cryptocurrencies, Daniel Walker

CMC Senior Theses

This paper is, to my knowledge, one of the first ever to examine the effectiveness of price momentum trading strategies applied to cryptocurrencies. Using aggregate OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data on cryptocurrency pairs from Poloniex, Bittrex, and Bitfinex, I apply Jegadeesh and Titman’s classic -month/-month momentum trading strategy, reporting annual returns with and without incorporating trading fees. Portfolios are resampled daily, weekly, and monthly, testing lookback and holding periods ranging from one day to one year. The results show that trading cryptocurrencies using momentum strategies derives returns that rapidly increase the more often portfolios are resampled, with the …

Is Avocado Toast The Reason I'M Still Living With My Parents?, Brendan Macdonald

CMC Senior Theses

Is avocado toast the reason that I am still living with my parents? In other words, does the consumption of avocado toast, or more specifically eating out in general, have any impact on one’s ability to be a homeowner. In May of 2017, an Australian real estate developer by the name of Tim Gurner was asked to provide advice to young people who could not afford to purchase a home. He responded by saying, “when I was trying to buy my first home, I wasn’t buying smashed avocado for $19 and four coffees at $4 each,” (Victor, 2017). While the …

Determining Factors Of Risk Tolerance: Evidence From Fantasy Football Snake Drafts, Nicholas Obrand

CMC Senior Theses

This paper utilizes fantasy football snake drafts to analyze risk tolerance of individuals who are trying to maximize their present and future utility, but are faced with unknown factors and only have limited resources. Fantasy football provides a unique perspective on risk tolerance, different than the commonly researched fields of auctions, financial portfolios, and lotteries. I examine mock draft data from Fantasy Football Calculator as well as rankings data from Fantasy Pros to gauge the amount of risk associated with each draft pick. I find that the more perceived uncertainty that is connected to an individual selection, the more likely …

Taking Good Works To The Next Level: Increasing Investment In And Support For Higher-Risk Innovation, Jessie Capper

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis explores the possible avenues available to corporations and capital-managing entities seeking to increase their commitment to good works. These organizations have the potential to fill the gap in societal needs by supporting and investing in good works, including environmental protection and highly-innovative energy technologies, beyond the traditional corporate social responsibility (CSR) norm. These means include charitable giving, working with disadvantaged communities, corporate assistance to environmental or other social non-governmental organizations, and more. This thesis discusses the advantages and limitations of various corporate structures (C Corporations, S Corporations, LLCs, B Corps, L³Cs, and benefit corporations) and capital-managing …

Revenue Incentives And Referee Propensity To Make Foul Calls In The Nba Finals, Daniel Fallon-Cyr

CMC Senior Theses

In this study I examine foul calls by NBA referees alongside the difference in aggressiveness of twelve NBA basketball teams as they compete for the Championship Title. I aim to identify referee biases that increase the likelihood of the NBA Finals ending in a later game due to league revenue incentives. My data consists of 91 individual NBA Finals games played between the 2001 and 2016 NBA Finals. After controlling for changes in play as well as the difference in aggressiveness, I find that NBA referee’s foul calls are more dependent on a call on the opposing team in situations …

A Problematic Business Model: The Effect Of Private Prisons On Arrests, Claire Donnelly

CMC Senior Theses

Past work related to the private prison system has focused on direct comparisons between private and public facilities, including their respective quality, cost-effectiveness, and influence on recidivism. Using 2005 United States data compiled from a prison facility census, county census, and information on number of arrests by county, I examine the effect that the presence of private prisons has on the number of adult male arrests per county. Across four regression models, I initially find a significant effect of private prisons on arrests, but find that effect becomes insignificant once county and prison controls are accounted for. This suggests that …

The Drivers Of Success In The Nfl: Differences In Factors Affecting The Probability Of Winning Based On First Half Performance, Zach Alleva

CMC Senior Theses

This paper explores how changing various end game statistics effects a given teams probability of winning a game in the National Football League (NFL). Data from the 2000-2016 NFL seasons is split into two subsets, one for teams winning at halftime, another for losing teams. Using this data an empirical model is estimated to study how the determinants of a team’s success differ between the two sets of data. Overall, the factors which determine a team’s outcome are consistent between the two subsets, varying primarily by magnitude of the effect.

Teaching An Old Profession New Tricks: An Analysis On The Effects Of The Flipped Classroom Model On Student Performance, Theresa K. Lomneth

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

When traditional lecture methods prove ineffective, some professors turn to alternative teaching styles. In particular, a flipped or inverted classroom, where students watch conceptual videos before coming to class and use class time for application and fine tuning of these concepts has become popular in recent years. However, little consensus exists on the efficacy of these strategies. The purpose of this study is to determine whether a flipped classroom structure implemented in a medical school course successfully improved student performance. To do so, I analyzed exam data from the University of Nebraska Medical Center before and after implementation of …

Bitcoin: Is Cryptocurrency Viable?, Austin Hill

CMC Senior Theses

Bitcoin, a virtual currency invented in 2009, was created as a peer-to-peer currency that eliminated the need for a third party authority, such as banks or government, to be involved in monetary transactions. Having no intrinsic value but carrying no government guarantees relegates bitcoin and its competitors to the perpetual role of investment opportunity, deriving value not from a practical use, but from a nominal, dollar value. This will continue to be the case until the U.S. Government sanctions virtual currency as a viable store of value. Because the dollar plays such a large role in the world’s economy, other …

A Look Into The Industry Of Video Games Past, Present, And Yet To Come, Chad Hadzinsky

CMC Senior Theses

Since its inception, the video game industry has been both a new medium for art and innovation as well as a major driving force in the advancements of many technologies. The often overlooked video game industry has turned from a hobby to a multi-billion dollar industry in its short, forty year life. People of all ages and genders across the world are playing video games at a higher clip than ever before. With so many new gamers and emerging technologies, it is an exciting time for the industry. The landscape is constantly changing and successful business models of the past …

Los Bancos Del Tiempo En España: Combatiendo La Recesión Con La Moneda Social, Marco Martellini

CMC Senior Theses

Un banco del tiempo (BDT) es el nombre formal que se le da a unas instituciones comunitarias que operan con horas de tiempo personal y laboral como moneda oficial. Son sistemas organizados de moneda social que permiten a sus usuarios intercambiar su propio tiempo y destreza en forma de créditos de servicio. La unidad de moneda es una hora de trabajo. Los BDT son parte de la categoría de moneda alternativa social y representan una evolución moderna de entidades clásicas como los trueques.

Los BDT valoran conceptos como compartir, igualdad y mutualismo. Así, funcionan como un sistema alternativo a los …

Portfolio Company Selection Criteria: Accelerators Vs Venture Capitalists, Cody Chang

CMC Senior Theses

The explosive growth of ‘accelerators’ in the United States has given entrepreneurs and their startups the opportunity to pursue seed-stage financing. While the specific economic role of accelerators remains unclear, a study comparing the selection of portfolio companies between accelerators and venture capitalists was performed. A difference of means was performed on the responses per question between the collected 19 accelerators’ response and the 100 venture capitalists’ response, recorded from a prior study. It is found that venture capitalists place significantly more weight, than accelerators, on the potential of the startup’s product or service to be proprietary, to enter a …

Conditional Cash Transfers And Child Health: The Case Of Malawi, Ryan F. Boone

CMC Senior Theses

This paper analyzes the impacts of the Malawi Social Cash Transfer Scheme. The goal of this paper is to help improve the design of cash transfers. First of all, I analyze whether the cash transfer positively affects child health variables despite occurring in a region with poor supply side health institutions. I find significant results for many child level variables, such as frequency of illnesses, but insignificant improvements in anthropometric measurements. Secondly, I examine whether female-headed households invest more in child health than male-headed households. The results show that the impacts of the cash transfer did not depend on the …

An Empirical Analysis Of Differences In Environmental Transparency Across Firms, Sean Robert Smith

CMC Senior Theses

In recent years, many firms have voluntarily taken actions to gradually increase the transparency of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) efforts. Using data on a sample of U.S. firms, this paper empirically examines the factors that encourage firms to choose different levels of CSR transparency. This adds to the previous literature that has focused only on the binary decision to engage or not to engage in CSR, as opposed to the extent and comprehensiveness of voluntary CSR reporting. Environmental transparency data are collected from the Roberts Environmental Center (REC) at Claremont McKenna College, while data for firm characteristics and toxic …

Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Impacts And Reform Strategies, Jennifer E. Good

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis uses cross-country panel regressions to identify the effects of fossil-fuel subsidies for both oil importers and oil exporters on GDP growth, industry growth, crowding out of government expenditures in education, health, and infrastructure, government debt, carbon dioxide emissions, inequality and poverty. Fossil-fuel subsidies are found to be associated with lower levels of growth and industry growth, less government expenditure on health and education, poorer infrastructure quality, more government debt, and higher rates of carbon dioxide emissions. No relationship is found between fossil fuel subsidies and poverty and inequality. These results confirm the arguments of those that argue that …

Examining The Role Of Immigration In Crime Decline Across United States Cities, Brianna J. Losoya

CMC Senior Theses

Despite previous research in this area, the relationship between immigration and crime in the United States remains ambiguous and surrounded by misconceptions. However, recently, scholars have suggested that, despite the claims of policy-makers and popularized sociological theories, large immigrant concentrations may be linked with lower as opposed to higher crime rates. In the past, research in this area has been imprecise due to it its implementation of cross-sectional analyses for a limited selection of geographic regions. However, through the implementation of time-series procedures and the use of annual data for metropolitan statistical areas during the 2005–2010 periods, the present study …