Other Economics Commons^™

Axiomatic Characterization Of Generalized Neo-Eu Preferences And The Falsifiability Of Ambiguity Theories, Manuel Nunez, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

We introduce a new weakening of the independence axiom, co-extreme independence, which we show characterizes a class that encompasses popular ambiguity models including Hurwicz preferences, ϵ-contamination preferences, and NEOEU preferences. Importantly, our representation unifies these as forms of simple ambiguity models as we show that the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension of these models is either unity or increases linearly with the number of states. In contrast, standard ambiguity models characterized in the Anscombe-Aumann framework are complex ambiguity models that have a VC dimension that is either infinite or increases exponentially in the number of states. We show that simple ambiguity preferences …

A Critical Evaluation Of Loss Aversion As The Determinate Of Effort In Compensation Framing, Timothy W. Shields, James Wilhelm

ESI Working Papers

A robust finding in managerial accounting research is that participants prefer contracts framed as bonuses to economically equivalent contracts framed as penalties. Another finding is that participants put forth more effort when facing penalty contracts than equivalent bonus contracts. Both results are commonly described as due to loss aversion, an integral portion of prospect theory. We test whether loss aversion is correlated with higher effort in an experiment with two parts. In the first part, we elicit individual participants' loss aversion using two measures. In the second part of the experiment, participants choose costly effort to increase the likelihood of …

On Explaining Why The (Human) World Is Rich, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

The wealth of the modern world is a natural historical marvel. Explaining it has traditionally been the purview of economic historians, as exemplified by the recent book How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin. Economic historians, though, tend to only ask process-oriented “how” questions and “by what means” questions of the Great Enrichment. The eight co-authors of Explaining Technology, who are not economic historians, engage the debate asking a different question. Their goal is to explain the exponential shape of our enrichment with a model of the combinatorial evolution of technology. With an eye toward how …

Gambling Habits And Probability Judgements In A Bayesian Task Environment, David L. Dickinson, Parker Reid

ESI Publications

Little is known about how gamblers form probability assessments. This paper reports on a preregistered study that administered an incentivized Bayesian choice task to n = 465 self-reported gamblers and non-gamblers. The task elicits subjective probability assessments and allows one to estimate the degree to which distinct information sources are weighted in forming probability assessments. Our data failed to support our main hypotheses that experienced online gamblers would be more accurate than non-gamblers in estimating probabilities, that gamblers experienced in games of skill (e.g., poker) would be more accurate than gamblers experienced only in non-skill games (e.g., slots), that accuracy …

Do Participation Rates Vary With Participation Payments In Laboratory Experiments?, Huizhen Zhong, Cary Deck, Daniel J. Henderson

ESI Working Papers

This paper reports a series of experiments designed to evaluate how the advertised participation payment impacts participation rates in laboratory experiments. Our initial goal was to generate variation in the participation rate as a means to control for selection bias when evaluating treatment effects in common laboratory experiments. Initially, we varied the advertised participation payment to 1734 people from $5 to $15 using standard email recruitment procedures, but found no statistical evidence this impacted the participation rate. A second study increased the advertised payment up to $100. Here, we find marginally significant statistical evidence that the advertised participation payment affects …

Coordination Within And Across Two Cultures, Gabriele Camera, James Gilmore, Marilyn Giselle Hazlett, Jason Shachat, Bochen Zhu

ESI Working Papers

We study within- and cross-culture interaction in a Stag Hunt game, using a controlled online experiment with Chinese and American participants. We find that cross-culture interactions can have a positive impact on efficiency. American participants, particularly females, more frequently selected the efficient but risky action when facing a Chinese counterpart. Chinese male participants, instead, less frequently selected the efficient but risky action when facing an American counterpart. These behavioral asymmetries do not support the notion of cultural equivalence, nor the hypothesis that multiculturalism fosters strategic uncertainty.

Who Helps Tsimane Children And Adults?, Eric Schniter, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Hillard S. Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven

ESI Working Papers

We examine various forms of helping behavior among Tsimane Amerindians of Bolivia, focusing on the provision of shelter, childcare, food, sickcare, cultural influence, and traditional story knowledge. Kin selection theory traditionally explains nepotistic nurturing of youth by closely related kin. However, less attention has been given to understanding the help provided by individuals without close genetic relatedness. To explain who provides various forms of help, we evaluate support for several predictions derived from kin selection theory. Our results show that helpers who are most often closely related and from an older generation tend to provide more costly forms of help …

Ideology And Economic Change, Jared Rubin, Debin Ma

ESI Working Papers

This paper revisits the old theses of the contrasting paths to modernization between Japan and China. It develops a new analytical framework regarding the role of ideology and ideological change—Meiji Japan’s decisive turn towards the West pitted against Qing China’s lethargic response to Western imperialism—as the key driver behind these contrasting paths. Our framework and historical narrative highlight the contrast between Tokugawa Japan’s feudal, decentralized political regime and Qing China’s centralized bureaucratic system as a key determinant driving the differential patterns of ideological realignment. We argue that the 1894-95 Japanese naval victory over China could not be justified under the …

Moral Content Diminishes Preference Falsification, Maxine Bonneau, Tanya O'Garra, Praveen Kujal

ESI Working Papers

We examine how the moral (or neutral) content of an issue influences the tendency to falsify attitudes, given varying social and monetary incentives to engage in such ‘preference falsification’. We conduct an incentivized two stage online experimental study where, in a prior first stage, attitude strength over moral and neutral issues is elicited. Then, in the second stage participants in groups of ten were asked to express their preferences regarding the moral or neutral issues for each possible combination of supporters and opposers in their group, each associated with varying monetary payoffs. More than half of the participants falsify their …

Increases In Regional Brain Volume Across Two Native South American Male Populations, Nikhil N. Chaudhari, Phoebe E. Imms, Nathan F. Chowdhury, Margaret Gatz, Benjamin Trumble, Wendy J. Mack, E. Meng Law, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Christopher J. Rowan, L. Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Randall C. Thompson, David E. Michalik, Michael I. Miyamoto, Guido Lombardi, Daniel Cummings, Edmond Seabright, Sarah Alami, Angela R. Garcia, Daniel E. Rodriguez, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Adrian J. Copajira, Paul L. Hooper, Kenneth Buetow, Jonathan Stieglitz, Michael D. Gurven, Gregory S. Thomas, Hillard Kaplan, Caleb E. Finch, Andrei Irimia

ESI Publications

Industrialized environments, despite benefits such as higher levels of formal education and lower rates of infections, can also have pernicious impacts upon brain atrophy. Partly for this reason, comparing age-related brain volume trajectories between industrialized and non-industrialized populations can help to suggest lifestyle correlates of brain health. The Tsimane, indigenous to the Bolivian Amazon, derive their subsistence from foraging and horticulture and are physically active. The Moseten, a mixed-ethnicity farming population, are physically active but less than the Tsimane. Within both populations (N = 1024; age range = 46–83), we calculated regional brain volumes from computed tomography and compared …

Cooperation In Temporary Partnerships, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

The literature on cooperation in infinitely repeated Prisoner’s Dilemmas covers the extreme opposites of the matching spectrum: partners, a player’s opponent never changes, and strangers, a player’s opponent randomly changes in every period. Here, we extend the analysis to settings where the opponent changes, but not in every period. In these temporary partnerships, players can deter some deviations by directly sanctioning their partner. Hence, relaxing the extreme assumption of one-period matchings can support some cooperation also off equilibrium because a class of strategies emerges that are less extreme than the typical “grim” strategy. We establish conditions supporting full …

Truth By Consensus: A Theoretical And Empirical Investigation, Gabriele Camera, Rod Garratt, Cyril Monnet

ESI Working Papers

Truthful reporting about publicly observed events cannot be guaranteed by a consensus process. This fact, which we establish theoretically and verify empirically, holds true even if some individuals are compelled to tell the truth, regardless of economic incentives. In an experiment, subjects routinely misreported a commonly known event when they could monetarily gain from it. Relying on majority consensus did not help uncover the truth, especially if complying with the majority granted small personal monetary gains. This highlights the difficulties in relying on shared consensus protocols to agree on specific events, and the importance of institutions with trusted, impartial observers.

Cross-Cousin Marriage Among Tsimane Forager–Horticulturalists During Demographic Transition And Market Integration, Arianna Dalzero, Bret A. Beheim, Hillard Kaplan, Jonathan Stieglitz, Paul L. Hooper, Cody T. Ross, Michael D. Gurven, Dieter Lukas

ESI Publications

Although still prevalent in many human societies, the practice of cousin marriage has precipitously declined in populations undergoing rapid demographic and socioeconomic change. However, it is still unclear whether changes in the structure of the marriage pool or changes in the fitness-relevant consequences of cousin marriage more strongly influence the frequency of cousin marriage. Here, we use genealogical data collected by the Tsimane Health and Life History Project to show that there is a small but measurable decline in the frequency of first cross-cousin marriage since the mid-twentieth century. Such changes are linked to concomitant changes in the pool of …

Ambiguity, Cognitive Reflection, And Strategic Complexity Across Auctions, Cary Deck, Paan Jindapon, Tigran Melkonyan, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

This paper bridges large but separate literatures on decision-making under ambiguity, the dual system framework of behavioral economics, and market design. We characterize behavior under ambiguity arising from dual system preferences. Rational System 2 satisfies the subjective expected utility axioms while behavioral System 1 satisfies the obvious dominance axiom from mechanism design. Our axioms provide a novel foundation for the popular NEO-EU ambiguity model and allow for source dependent ambiguity perceptions. Our approach also provides an explanation as to how behavioral differences arise between obviously strategy-proof mechanisms (e.g. English auctions) and other mechanisms. Empirically, we find ambiguity perceptions are lower …

Cognitive Abilities And Individual Earnings In Hybrid Continuous Double Auctions, Yan Peng, Jason Shachat, Lijia Wei, S. Sarah Zhang

ESI Working Papers

There is growing evidence that human cognitive abilities strongly influence individual trader financial performance. Much of this evidence has been established in experimental asset markets whose participants are exclusively human traders. However, algorithmic trading has reshaped financial markets, raising the issue of whether these assessments on the impact of cognititive abilities still hold in these settings, particularly in markets with low latency algorithmic traders. Extending previous findings in experimental asset markets, we examine how individual cognitive abilities—reaction time, trader intuition (Theory of Mind), and cognitive reflection—affect human earnings in induced demand and supply markets with and without algorithmic traders of …

Coordinated And Uncoordinated Punishment In A Team Investment Game, Vicente Calabuig, Natalia Jiménez-Jiménez, Gonzalo Olcina, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Publications

Coordinated punishment occurs when punishment requires a specific number of punishers to be effective, otherwise, no damage will be inflicted on the target. While societies often rely on this punishment device, its benefits are unclear compared to uncoordinated punishment, where punishment decisions are substitutes. In this paper, we compare the efficacy of coordinated and uncoordinated punishment in a team investment game with two investors and one allocator. Our findings indicate that coordinated punishment results in higher levels of cooperation and reciprocity, as measured by the levels of joint investment and the return by allocators. Importantly, this does not translate into …

Possible Role Of The One-Half Heuristic In Overconfidence Research, Vojtěch Zíka

ESI Working Papers

Overconfidence research often involves estimating performance within a fixed range. Recent studies suggest that overprecision is affected by central tendency bias, the tendency to estimate near the center of a perceived distribution. This paper examines whether a similar pattern influences the other two overconfidence types, overestimation and overplacement. In a laboratory experiment (N = 120), participants estimated their own and the average performance over five rounds of ten Rock–Paper–Scissors games. Each round earned for up to 40 points, but average performance varied across three treatments, with means of 16.6, 20, and 23.3 points. The main question was whether this manipulation …

How Does Passive Investing Effect The Informational Efficiency Of Prices?, Brice Corgnet, Mark Desantis, Yan Peng, David Porter, Jason Shachat

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the causal effects of passive investing on informational efficiency and market quality metrics by developing a novel laboratory experiment that introduces Index trackers with exogenous passive investment flows. We find that, while improving liquidity, Index tracking hurts informational efficiency, confirming our main hypothesis. Furthermore, we observe violations of the law of one price, leading to widespread and persistent arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, our research uncovers that Active traders, particularly those with private information about asset values and high cognitive ability, reap benefits from the introduction of Index tracking.

Sleep Restriction Alters The Integration Of Multiple Information Sources In Probabilistic Decision-Making, Jeryl Y. L. Lim, Johanna M. Boardman, Clare Anderson, David L. Dickinson, Daniel Bennett, Sean P. A. Drummond

ESI Publications

The detrimental effects of sleep loss on overall decision-making have been well described. Due to the complex nature of decisions, there remains a need for studies to identify specific mechanisms of decision-making vulnerable to sleep loss. Bayesian perspectives of decision-making posit judgement formation during decision-making occurs via a process of integrating knowledge gleaned from past experiences (priors) with new information from current observations (likelihoods). We investigated the effects of sleep loss on the ability to integrate multiple sources of information during decision-making by reporting results from two experiments: the first implementing both sleep restriction (SR) and …

Representation And Bracketing In Repeated Games, Mouli Modak

ESI Working Papers

In this experimental paper, the author investigates the framing effect of different representations of multiple strategic settings or games on a player’s strategic behavior. Two representations of the same environment are employed, wherein a player engages in two infinitely repeated prisoner’s dilemma games. In the first representation (termed Split), the stage games are shown separately. In contrast, the second representation (termed Linked) displays a combined stage game. The choice bracketing, distinguishing between Narrow and Broad bracketing, is considered a potential cause behind any disparity in behavior between the two representations. The Split representation does not necessitate broad bracketing, whereas the …

Poor Oral Health Is Associated With Inflammation, Aortic Valve Calcification, And Brain Volume Among Forager-Farmers, Benjamin C. Trumble, Matthew Schwartz, Andrew T. Ozga, Gary T. Schwartz, Christopher M. Stojanowski, Carrie L. Jenkins, Thomas Kraft, Angela R. Garcia, Daniel K. Cummings, Paul L. Hooper, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Kenneth Buetow, Bret Beheim, Andrei Irimia, Gregory S. Thomas, Randall C. Thompson, Horus Team, Margaret Gatz, Jonathan Stieglitz, Caleb E. Finch, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan

ESI Publications

Poor oral health is associated with cardiovascular disease and dementia. Potential pathways include sepsis from oral bacteria, systemic inflammation, and nutritional deficiencies. However, in post-industrialized populations, links between oral health and chronic disease may be confounded because the lower socioeconomic exposome (poor diet, pollution, low physical activity) often entails insufficient dental care. We assessed tooth loss, caries, and damaged teeth, in relation to cardiovascular and brain aging among the Tsimane, a subsistence population living a relatively traditional forager-horticulturalist lifestyle with poor dental health, but minimal cardiovascular disease and dementia. Dental health was assessed by a physician in 739 participants aged …

How Personalized Networks Can Limit Free Riding: A Multi-Group Version Of The Public Goods Game, Aaron S. Berman, Laurence R. Iannaccone, Mouli Modak

ESI Working Papers

People belong to many different groups, and few belong to the same network of groups. Moreover, people routinely reduce their involvement in dysfunctional groups while increasing involvement in those they find more attractive. The net effect can be an increase in overall cooperation and the partial isolation of free-riders, even if free-riders are never punished, excluded, or recognized. We formalize and test this conjecture with an agent-based social simulation and a multi-good extension of the standard repeated public goods game. Our initial results from three treatments suggest that the multi-group setting indeed raises overall cooperation and dampens the impact of …

Personal Lies, Gary Charness, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

Using the mind game, we provide experimental evidence that people are more likely to lie when they disclose non-personal information (e.g., reporting a number they thought of) compared with personal information (e.g., reporting the last digit of their birth year). Our findings suggest that the type of information is an important factor for lying behavior.

Experimental Research On Contests, Subhashish M. Chowdhury, Dan Kovenock, Anwesha Mukherjee

ESI Working Papers

Contests are situations in which agents compete by irreversibly expending costly resources in an attempt to win a prize. Due to their applications in conflict, rent-seeking, organizational incentives, sports, litigation, and political campaigns, contests are widely applied in the social sciences. In this survey we summarize some main results and recent developments of experimental studies in contest theory. We also point out their broader applications in the social sciences.

Financial Contagion And Financial Lockdowns, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

ESI Working Papers

Extreme financial shocks often elicit extraordinary policy interventions that preclude financial activity on a large scale, for example as the 1933 U.S. “bank holiday.” We study these interventions using a random matching framework where the financial contagion process is explicit and the diffusion of the initial shock can be analytically characterized. The study suggests that there is scope for forced closures of individual firms or even economy-wide financial lockdowns only when firms are financially vulnerable and policy institutions are not well-functioning. Here, ordinary policy alone cannot prevent or sufficiently mitigate contagion, while complementing it with a lockdown or individual closures …

Evolution Of Primate Vocal Repertoires: Vocal Systems As Embodied Capital For Mediating Within-Group Conflict, Eric Schniter, Mateo Peñaherrera-Aguirre

ESI Working Papers

Life history traits constrain investments in costly neural and somatic embodied capital, potentially shaping the evolution of primate vocal communication systems. This study integrates life history theory with the social complexity hypothesis to test a sequential pathway from longevity to social dynamics to vocal repertoire size, using updated vocal repertoire data for McComb & Semple’s (2005) set of 42 non-human primate species, alongside measures of group size and within-group conflict. We compiled data on vocal repertoire size, within-group conflict, group size, endocranial volume, and maximum longevity, analysing these via Phylogenetic Sequential Canonical Cascade Model and ancestral character reconstructions. …

Human-Robot Interactions: Insights From Experimental And Evolutionary Social Sciences, Eric Schniter

ESI Working Papers

"Experimental research in the realm of human-robot interactions has focused on the behavioral and psychological influences affecting human interaction and cooperation with robots. A robot is loosely defined as a device designed to perform agentic tasks autonomously or under remote control, often replicating or assisting human actions. Robots can vary widely in form, ranging from simple assembly line machines performing repetitive actions to advanced systems with no moving parts but with artificial intelligence (AI) capable of learning, problem-solving, communicating, and adapting to diverse environments and human interactions. Applications of experimental human-robot interaction research include the design, development, and implementation of …

Enlightenment Ideals And Belief In Progress In The Run-Up To The Industrial Revolution: A Textual Analysis, Ali Almelhem, Murat Iyigun, Austin Kennedy, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

We trace the evolution of the language of science, religion, and political economy in the centuries leading to the British Industrial Revolution. Using textual analysis of 264,443 works printed in England between 1500 and 1900, we test whether British culture manifested a belief in progress associated with science and industry. Our analysis yields three main findings. First, there was a separation in the languages of science and religion beginning in the mid-18th century. Second, volumes using language at the nexus of science and political economy became more progress-oriented during the Enlightenment. Third, volumes using industrial language—especially those at the science-political …

Joining A Currency Union To Improve Financial Development And Competitiveness: The Case Of Slovakia, Etsub Tekola Jemberu, Bruce Dehning

Accounting Faculty Articles and Research

Enhancing competitiveness is a priority for nations seeking to promote economic growth. One of the critical drivers of a nation’s sustainable competitiveness is financial system development. However, whether joining a currency union has a positive impact on a country’s financial system development requires further investigation. This study evaluates the impact of euro adoption on Slovakia’s financial system development using a synthetic control method with lasso regularization methodology. A comprehensive index that captures the depth, access, and efficiency of financial institutions and markets is used to measure financial system development. Based on a donor pool composed of non-euro OECD countries, the …

Testosterone Is Positively Associated With Coronary Artery Calcium In A Low Cardiovascular Disease Risk Population, Benjamin Trumble, Jacob Negrey, Stephanie V. Koebele, Randall C. Thompson, L. Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Bret Beheim, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, David E. Michalik, Chris J. Rowan, Guido P. Lombardi, Angela R. Garcia, Daniel K. Cummings, Edmond Seabright, Sarah Alami, Thomas S. Kraft, Paul L. Hooper, Kenneth Buetow, Andrei Irimia, Margaret Gatz, Jonathan Stieglitz, Michael D. Gurven, Hillard Kaplan, Gregory S. Thomas, Tsimane Health And Life History Project Teams

ESI Publications

Background

In industrialized populations, low male testosterone is associated with higher rates of cardiovascular mortality. However, coronary risk factors like obesity impact both testosterone and cardiovascular outcomes. Here, we assess the role of endogenous testosterone on coronary artery calcium in an active subsistence population with relatively low testosterone levels, low cardiovascular risk and low coronary artery calcium scores.

Methodology

In this cross-sectional community-based study, 719 Tsimane forager-horticulturalists in the Bolivian Amazon aged 40+ years underwent computed tomography (49.8% male, mean age 57.6 years).

Results

Coronary artery calcium levels were low; 84.5% had no coronary artery calcium. Zero-inflated negative binomial models …