Other Economics Commons^™

Information Aggregation With Heterogeneous Traders, Cary Deck, Tae In Jun, Laura Razzolini, Tavoy Reid

ESI Working Papers

The efficient market hypothesis predicts that asset prices reflect all available information. A seminal experiment reported that contingent claim markets could yield market outcomes consistent with information aggregation when traders hold heterogeneous state-contingent values. However, a recent experiment found the rational expectation model outperformed the prior information and maxi-min models in contingent claim markets when traders hold homogeneous values despite the no trade equilibrium in that setting. But that same study failed to replicate the original result calling into question when, if ever, prices reliably reflect the aggregate information of traders with heterogeneous values. In this paper, we show contingent …

United We Stand: On The Benefits Of Coordinated Punishment, Vicente Calabuig, Natalia Jiménez, Gonzalo Olcina, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara

ESI Working Papers

Coordinated punishment occurs when punishment decisions are complements; i.e., this punishment device requires a specific number of punishers to be effective; otherwise, no damage will be inflicted on the target. While societies often rely on this punishment device, its benefits are unclear compared with uncoordinated punishment, where punishment decisions are substitutes. We argue that coordinated punishment can prevent the free-riding of punishers and show, both theoretically and experimentally, that this may be beneficial for cooperation in a team investment game, compared with uncoordinated punishment.

Historical Political Economy: What Is It?, Jeffrey Jenkins, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

In this chapter, we define what historical political economy (HPE) is and is not, classify the major themes in the literature, assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of the literature, and point to future directions. We view HPE as social scientific inquiry which highlights political causes or consequences of historical issues. HPE is different from conventional political economy in the emphasis placed on historical processes and context. While we view HPE in the most inclusive manner reasonable, we define it to exclude works that are either solely of contemporary importance or use historical data without any historical context (e.g., long-run …

Cultural Transmission Vectors Of Essential Knowledge And Skills Among Tsimane Forager-Farmers, Eric Schniter, Hillard Kaplan, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

Humans transmit cultural information to others in a variety of ways that can affect productivity, cultural success, and ultimately fitness. Not all potential transmitters are expected to be equally preferred by learners or equally willing to influence their culture acquisition. Across socioeconomic opportunities and ages in the human life course, costs and benefits to both learners and potential transmitters are expected to vary, affecting rates of culture transmission from different vectors. Here we examine reported patterns of culture transmission contributing to 92 essential skills among a sample of 421 Tsimane forager-farmers native to Bolivia. Consistent with the expectation that the …

The Primacy Of Property; Or, The Subordination Of Property Rights, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Publications

A property right, the standard view maintains, is a proper subset of the most complete and comprehensive set of incidents for full ownership of a thing. The subsidiary assumption is that the pieces that are property rights compose the whole that is ownership or property, i.e., that property rights explain property. In reversing the standard view I argue that (1) a custom of intelligent and meaningful human action explains property and that (2) as a custom, property is a historical process of selecting actions conditional on the context. My task is to explain how a physical world of human bodies …

Nobel And Novice: Author Prominence Affects Peer Review, Jürgen Huber, Sabiou M. Inoua, Rudolf Kerschbamer, Christian König-Kersting, Stefan Palan, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Peer-review is a well-established cornerstone of the scientific process, yet it is not immune to status bias. Merton identified the problem as one in which prominent researchers get disproportionately great credit for their contribution while relatively unknown researchers get disproportionately little credit.¹ We measure the extent of this effect in the peer-review process through a pre-registered field experiment. We invite more than 3,300 researchers to review a paper jointly written by a prominent author – a Nobel laureate – and by a relatively unknown author – an early-career research associate –, varying whether reviewers see the prominent author’s name, …

Introducing New Forms Of Digital Money: Evidence From The Laboratory, Gabriele Camera

ESI Working Papers

Central banks may soon issue currencies that are entirely digital (CBDCs) and possibly interest-bearing. A strategic analytical framework is used to investigate this innovation in the laboratory, contrasting a traditional “plain” tokens baseline to treatments with “sophisticated” interest-bearing tokens. In the experiment, this theoretically beneficial innovation precluded the emergence of a stable monetary system, reducing trade and welfare. Similar problems emerged when sophisticated tokens complemented or replaced plain tokens. This evidence underscores the advantages of combining theoretical with experimental investigation to provide insights for payments systems innovation and policy design.

The Doors Of Perception: Theory And Evidence Of Frame-Dependent Rationalizability, Gary Charness, Alessandro Sontuoso

ESI Working Papers

We investigate how strategic behavior is affected by the set of notions (frames) used when thinking about the game. In our games, the action set consists of visual objects: each player must privately choose one, trying to match the counterpart’s choice. We propose a model where different player-types are aware of different attributes of the action set (hence, different frames). One of the novelties is an epistemic structure that allows players to think about new frames, after initial unawareness of some attributes. To test the model, our experimental design brings about multiple frames by varying subjects’ awareness of several attributes.

When Do Security Markets Aggregate Dispersed Information?, Brice Corgnet, Cary Deck, Mark Desantis, Kyle Hampton, Erik O. Kimbrough

ESI Publications

We attempt to replicate a seminal paper that offered support for the rational expectations hypothesis and reported evidence that markets with certain features aggregate dispersed information. The original results are based on only a few observations, and our attempt to replicate the key findings with an appropriately powered experiment largely fails. The resulting poststudy probability that market performance is better described by rational expectations than the prior information (Walrasian) model under the conditions specified in the original paper is very low. As a result of our failure to replicate, we investigate an alternate set of market features that combines aspects …

Social Norms And Dishonesty Across Societies, Diego Aycinena, Lucas Rentschler, Benjamin Beranek, Jonathan F. Schulz

ESI Publications

Social norms have long been recognized as an important factor in curtailing antisocial behavior, and stricter prosocial norms are commonly associated with increased prosocial behavior. In this study, we provide evidence that very strict prosocial norms can have a perverse negative relationship with prosocial behavior. In laboratory experiments conducted in 10 countries across 5 continents, we measured the level of honest behavior and elicited injunctive norms of honesty. We find that individuals who hold very strict norms (i.e., those who perceive a small lie to be as socially unacceptable as a large lie) are more likely to lie to the …

Hybrid U-Net: Semantic Segmentation Of High-Resolution Satellite Images To Detect War Destruction, Shima Nabiee, Matthew Harding, Jonathan Hersh, Nader Bagherzadeh

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

Destruction caused by violent conflicts play a big role in understanding the dynamics and consequences of conflicts, which is now the focus of a large body of ongoing literature in economics and political science. However, existing data on conflict largely come from news or eyewitness reports, which makes it incomplete, potentially unreliable, and biased for ongoing conflicts. Using satellite images and deep learning techniques, we can automatically extract objective information on violent events. To automate this process, we created a dataset of high-resolution satellite images of Syria and manually annotated the destroyed areas pixel-wise. Then, we used this dataset to …

A Universally Translatable Explication Of Adam Smith's Famous Proposition On "The Extent Of The Market", Bart J. Wilson, Gian Marco Farese

ESI Publications

Following Adam Smith’s line of argument, we examine the semantics of four economic principles in Chapter III of the Wealth of Nations that compose his famous proposition “that the division of labour is limited by the extent of the market.” We apply the Natural Semantic Metalanguage framework in linguistics to produce a series of explications that are clear and plain, cross-translatable into any language, intelligible to twenty-first-century readers, and faithfully close to the original text. Our paper explicates Smith’s logical argument in Chapter III and demonstrates how his ideas can be shared among speakers with different linguacultural backgrounds in line …

Preventing (Panic) Bank Runs, Hubert János Kiss, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso Rosa-Garcia

ESI Publications

We study experimentally an instrument to prevent bank runs in healthy banks. In particular, we extend the basic bank-run game, where depositors choose between withdrawing or keeping their money deposited, with a third option, the possibility to relocate funds to a priority account that is less profitable, but which guarantees a payoff even in a bank run. Theoretically, the use of this instrument dominates withdrawals for depositors without liquidity needs, and given this fact, depositors should optimally keep their deposits in the bank, so no bank run shall happen. In our experiment, we find evidence that the mechanism reduces not …

Review Of Religion And The Rise Of Capitalism, Jared Rubin

ESI Publications

A review of Religion and the Rise of Capitalism by Benjamin M. Friedman

Political Legitimacy In Historical Political Economy, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

Political legitimacy has long been recognized in the social sciences as an integral component of governance. It encourages obedience without the threat of force, thus lowering governing costs and improving the efficacy of policies. This chapter begins by overviewing the extensive literature on political legitimacy, classifying studies by whether they are based on the beliefs (regarding the legitimacy of the authority) or effectiveness (good governance is legitimate governance). Among the studies focusing on beliefs, most take legitimacy as an exogenous element of political authority. We develop a conceptual framework to study how beliefs regarding political legitimacy form endogenously and impact …

300 Anniversary Of Smith’ Birth, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Thousand-word brief on key quotes from Adam Smith’s two books (TMS, WN) modelling Society and Economy.

How Do Reward Versus Penalty Framed Incentives Affect Diagnostic Performance In Auditing?, Bright (Yue) Hong, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

Prior research examines how rewards versus economically equivalent penalties affect effort. However, accountants perform various diagnostic analyses that involve more than exerting effort. For example, auditors often need to identify whether a material misstatement is the underlying cause of a phenomenon among the possible causes. Testing helps identify the cause, but testing is costly. When participants are incentivized to test accurately (rather than test more) and objectively (unbiased between testing and not testing), we find that framing the incentives as rewards versus equivalent penalties increases testing by lowering the subjective testing criterion and by increasing the assessed risk of material …

Motives For Cooperation In The One-Shot Prisoner’S Dilemma, Mark Schneider, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

We investigate the motives for cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD). A prior study finds that cooperation rates in one-shot PD games can be ranked empirically by the social surplus from cooperation. That study employs symmetric payoffs from cooperation in simultaneous PD games. Hence, in that setting, it is not possible to discern the motives for cooperation since three prominent social welfare criteria, social surplus (efficiency) preferences, Rawlsian maximin preferences, and inequity aversion make the same predictions. In the present paper, we conduct an experiment to identify which of these social preferences best explains differences in cooperation rates and …

On The Generalizability Of Using Mobile Devices To Conduct Economic Experiments, Yiting Guo, Jason Shachat, Matthew J. Walker, Lijia Wei

ESI Working Papers

Recent technological advances enable the implementation of online, field and hybrid experiments using mobile devices. Mobile devices enable sampling of incentivized decisions in more representative samples, consequently increasing the generalizability of results. Generalizability might be compromised, however, if the device is a relevant behavioural confound. This paper reports on a battery of common economic games and decision-making tasks in which we systematically randomize the decision-making device (computer versus mobile phone) and the laboratory setup (physical versus online). The results offer broad support for conducting decision experiments using mobile devices. For six out of eight tasks, we find robust null results …

Property, Bas Van Der Vossen

Philosophy Faculty Books and Book Chapters

"This chapter discusses the nature and value of property rights. It will explain (1) what property rights are, (2) the relationship between private property and economic development, and (3) some objections to structuring societies around such rights. This discussion throughout focuses on the decentralizing nature of private property rights, asking what implications it has from a philosophical, but also social and political, point of view."

Who Withdraws First? Line Formation During Bank Runs, Hubert János Kiss, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso Rosa-Garcia

ESI Working Papers

We study how lines form in front of banks. In our model, depositors choose first the level of effort to arrive early at the bank and then whether or not to withdraw their deposit. We argue that the informational environment (i.e., the possibility of observing the action of others) affects the emergence of bank runs and should, therefore, influence the line formation. We test this prediction experimentally. While the informational environment has no effect on the line formation when we look at the average level of effort, our findings suggest that the reasons to arrive early at the bank varies …

Agency, Benevolence And Justice, Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Working Papers

We test for social norms regarding how Agents should select between risky prospects for Principals, including norms consistent with observations by Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as ``impartial spectator[s]" about the choice of risky prospects selected by the Agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with Smith's observations. Furthermore, we find that Agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that Principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the Agents' choice was consistent with the norm.

Prevalence Of Dementia And Mild Cognitive Impairment In Indigenous Bolivian Forager-Horticulturalists, Margaret Gatz, Wendy J. Mack, Helena C. Chui, E. Meng Law, Giuseppe Barisano, M. Linda Sutherland, James D. Sutherland, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Juan Copajira Adrian, Jesus Bani Cuata, Amy R. Borenstein, Ellen E. Waters, Andrei Irimia, Christopher J. Rowan, L. Samuel Wann, Adel H. Allam, Randall C. Thompson, Michael I. Miyamoto, David E. Michalik, Daniel K. Cummings, Edmond Seabright, Angela R. Garcia, Paul L. Hooper, Thomas S. Kraft, Caleb E. Finch, Gregory S. Thomas, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael D. Gurven, Hillard Kaplan

ESI Publications

Introduction

We evaluated the prevalence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in indigenous Tsimane and Moseten, who lead a subsistence lifestyle.

Methods

Participants from population-based samples ≥ 60 years of age (n = 623) were assessed using adapted versions of the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination, informant interview, longitudinal cognitive testing and brain computed tomography (CT) scans.

Results

Tsimane exhibited five cases of dementia (among n = 435; crude prevalence = 1.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.4, 2.7); Moseten exhibited one case (among n = 169; crude prevalence = 0.6%, 95% CI: 0.0, 3.2), all age ≥ 80 years. …

Laboratory Experiments Of Land Assembly Without Eminent Domain, Mark Desantis, Matthew W. Mccarter, Abel Winn

ESI Publications

The authors use laboratory experiments to test two self-assessment tax mechanisms for facilitating land assembly. One mechanism is incentive compatible with a complex tax function, while the other uses a flat tax rate to mitigate implementation concerns. Sellers publicly declare a price for their land. Overstating its true value is penalized by using the declared price to assess a property tax; understating its value is penalized by allowing developers to buy the property at the declared price. The authors find that both mechanisms increase the rate of land assembly and gains from trade relative to a control in which sellers’ …

Human Milk Oligosaccharide Compositions Illustrate Global Variations In Early Nutrition, Anita Vinjamuri, Jasmine C. C. Davis, Sarah M. Totten, Lauren D. Wu, Laura D. Klein, Melanie Martin, Ea Quinn, Brooke Scelza, Alicia Breakey, Michael Gurven, Grazyna Jasienska, Hillard Kaplan, Claudia Valeggia, Katie Hinde, Jennifer T. Smilowitz, Robin M. Bernstein, Angela M. Zivkovic, Michael J. Barratt, Jeffrey I. Gordon, Mark A. Underwood, David A. Mills, J. Bruce German, Carlito B. Lebrilla

ESI Publications

Background

Human milk oligosaccharides (HMOs) are an abundant class of compounds found in human milk and have been linked to the development of the infant, and specifically the brain, immune system, and gut microbiome.

Objectives

Advanced analytical methods were used to obtain relative quantitation of many structures in approximately 2000 samples from over 1000 mothers in urban, semirural, and rural sites across geographically diverse countries.

Methods

LC-MS−based analytical methods were used to profile the compounds with broad structural coverage and quantitative information. The profiles revealed their structural heterogeneity and their potential biological roles. Comparisons of HMO compositions were made between …

Data For "Agency, Benevolence And Justice", Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Data Sets

We test for social norms regarding how agents should select between risky prospects for principals, including norms consistent with beneficence and justice propositions from Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as "impartial spectator[s]" about choice of risky prospect selected by the agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with the Smith propositions. Furthermore we find that agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the agents choice was consistent with the norm.

The No-Arbitrage Hypothesis And Inertia In Forward Markets, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Allaz (1992) showed that the no-arbitrage condition in forward markets is obtained as a feature of the equilibrium if the model allows for strategic behavior on the part of the buyers. He showed that having active buyers is equivalent to passive buyers plus the no-arbitrage hypothesis. We test this experimentally in a forward market by allowing for active buyer’s under exogenously or endogenously determined market closure. We further test an inertia hypothesis that looks at whether past participation in a spot-market results in quantities being limited in the forward market stage. Importantly, the no-arbitrage condition can only be tested with …

Economics Of Markets: Neoclassical Theory, Experiments, And Theory Of Classical Price Discovery, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Publications

This book establishes that neoclassical economics based on the marginal utility calculus failed to derive a theory of consumer market price discovery consistent with the experimental market evidence. Such markets involve inherently discrete final-demand items bought for consumption and not subject to resale. Classical economists following Adam Smith articulated a rich narrative of price discovery theory consistent with experimental evidence based on operational concepts of discrete demand values (maximum willingness-to-pay), and symmetrically, supply costs (minimum willingness-to-accept). We develop and extend a mathematical model of classical market price formation. Chapter 1 & 2 describes this theme and chapter 3 connects it …

Perishable Goods Versus Re-Tradable Assets: A Theoretical Reappraisal Of A Fundamental Dichotomy, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

Although various typologies of goods are commonly adopted in economics, one stood out in market experiment results contrasting market stability and efficiency with market instability: non-durable, or perishable, goods (Smith, 1962) versus durable re-tradable assets (Smith et al., 1988; Dickhaut et al., 2012; S. D. Gjerstad et al., 2015). This dichotomy of goods also proved central for understanding macroeconomic instability more broadly: about 75% of consumer spending is bought for final consumption, and is a rock of stability; instability arises from the other 25% re-tradable goods, most prominently, houses (S. D. Gjerstad & Smith, 2014). In this chapter, we revisit …

The Implications Of Covid-19 On Fear Of Financial Collapse, Alexis Reekie

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

By disrupting the general value paradigm, the typical hierarchy of values, individuals directly affected by the COVID-19 virus have realized an overall shift in perspective, indicating a need to understand the effects of the COVID-19 virus on one’s outlook regarding economic anxiety and fear of financial collapse. The possibility of a global health crisis reaching levels of devastation are certainly great and worth investigating. Throughout this research paper I worked to determine the correlation between fear of financial crises and individuals who have been affected by the COVID-19 virus. Utilizing the Chapman Survey of American Fears (FEAR survey) questions pertaining …