Macroeconomics Commons^™

Currency Mismatch And Balance Sheet Effects Of Exchange Rate In Turkish Non-Financial Corporations, Serkan Demirkilic

Doctoral Dissertations

Until the East Asian Crisis of 1990s, literature exclusively focused on the assumed expansionary competitiveness channel of deprecation in the domestic currency. The East Asian and Latin American Crisis of 1990s proved that depreciation in the domestic currency caused fragilities through the deterioration in firms’ balance sheet net- worth. Many have argued that excessive reliance on short-term debt and un-hedged foreign currency borrowings of firms were responsible of fragilities, and resulting poor performances of firms in these countries. The latter body of the literature introduced the contractionary balance sheet effects of foreign currency indebtedness through depreciation, and argued that if …

Three Essays On International Economics And Finance, Juan Antonio Montecino

Doctoral Dissertations

This dissertation studies the macroeconomic and social impacts of two increasingly common macroeconomic policies: restrictions on international capital mobility -- capital controls -- and so-called unconventional monetary policy -- often referred to as “quantitative easing.” The consensus view is that capital controls can effectively lengthen the maturity composition of capital inflows and increase the independence of monetary policy but are not generally effective at reducing net inflows and influencing the real exchange rate. The first essay presents empirical evidence that although capital controls may not directly affect the long-run equilibrium level of the real exchange rate, they may enable disequilibria …

Economic Forecasting With Many Predictors, Fanning Meng

Doctoral Dissertations

The dissertation is focused on the analysis of economic forecasting with a large number of predictors.

The first chapter develops a novel forecasting method that minimizes the effects of weak predictors and estimation errors on the accuracy of equity premium forecasts. The proposed method is based on an averaging scheme applied to quantiles conditional on predictors selected by LASSO. The resulting forecasts outperform the historical average, and other existing models, by statistically and economically meaningful margins.

In the second chapter, we find that incorporating distributional and high-frequency information into a forecasting model can produce substantial accuracy gains. Distributional information is …

Master's Tools And The Master's House: A Historical Analysis Exploring The Myth Of Educating For Democracy In The United States, Timothy Scott

Doctoral Dissertations

Over the past forty-years, neoliberal education reform policies in the U.S. have spurred significant resistance, often galvanized by claims that such policies undermine public education as a vital institution of U.S. democracy. Within this narrative, many activists call to “save our schools” and return them to a time when public schools served the common good. With these narratives in mind, I explore the foundational and persistent power structures that characterize the U.S. as a means to reveal the fundamental purpose of its public education system. The questions that guide my research include: (1) With an understanding that capitalism, white supremacy, …