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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay
The Role Of Macroeconomic, Policy, And Forecaster Uncertainty In Forecast Dispersion, You Li, Anthony S. Tay
Research Collection School Of Economics
We explore the role of uncertainty in explaining dispersion in professional forecasters’ density forecasts of real output growth and inflation. We consider three separate notions of uncertainty: general macroeconomic uncertainty (the fact that macroeconomic variables are easier to forecast at some times than at others), policy uncertainty, and forecaster uncertainty. We find that dispersion in individual density forecasts is related to overall macroeconomic uncertainty and policy uncertainty, while forecaster uncertainty (which we define as the average in the uncertainty expressed by individual forecasters) appears to have little role in forecast dispersion.
Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu
Growing Through The Merger And Acquisition, Jianhuan Xu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The paper studies with an endogenous growth model how the merger and acquisition (M&A) affects the aggregate growth rate. We model the M&A as a capital reallocation process, which can increase both productivity and growth rates of firms. The model is tractable and greatly consistent with patterns observed in the M&A at the micro level. Matching our model to the data, we find that prohibiting the M&A would lead to the reduction of the aggregate growth rate of US economy by 0.1% and the reduction of the aggregate TFP by 5%.
China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University
China’S Pearl River Delta Development: A Game Changer For Hong Kong, Singapore Management University
Perspectives@SMU
“Hong Kong government has to think out of the box and take initiative to lead Hong Kong to break the bottle neck in economy development,” said Dr. Fang Zhou, Research Director of One Country Two Systems Research Institute (OCTSRI), a non-government public policy think tank in Hong Kong, at a seminar organized by Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong in November 2016.
Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh
Monetary Policy And Energy Price Shocks, Bao Tan Huynh
Research Collection School Of Economics
A New Keynesian framework with endogenous energy production is proposed to investigate the role of monetary policy in addressing disturbances in energy markets. The novelty of the model lies in the endogenous production of energy with convex costs, explicit modeling of goods with different degrees of energy-dependency and sectoral price rigidities. Our analyses prescribe the desirable monetary responses to four types of energy price shocks, highlighting the distinct characteristics of each shock and affirming the need for diverse policy considerations. We also found several points of divergence in relation to previous studies on addressing energy supply shocks. In addition, we …
Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang
Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper assesses the system-wide impacts of Malaysia’s rising household debt.Malaysia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio (HDGR) increased from 76% in 2009 to 89%in 2016. This increase has raised concerns regarding the implications for householdfinancial resilience and banking system stability. The paper uses a micro-level datasetthat integrates income and debt to calculate financial margin (FM) and the probabilityof default (PD) for individuals at the baseline, and when subject to various shocks.This allows the estimation of loss to lenders in the event of default, and from there,the banking system’s debt-at-risk. The findings show that default is more likely forhouseholds with a debt service …
Worker Selection, Hiring, And Vacancies, Ismail Baydur
Worker Selection, Hiring, And Vacancies, Ismail Baydur
Research Collection School Of Economics
The ratio of hirings to vacancies in the U.S. has the following establishment level properties: (i) it steeply rises with employment growth rate; (ii) falls with establishment size; and (iii) rises with worker turnover rate. The standard Diamond-Mortensen Pissarides (DMP) matching model is not compatible with these observations. This paper augments selection of workers prior to hiring into a random matching model with multi-worker firms. In the calibrated model, worker selection accounts for about 30% of the variation in the hiring-vacancy ratio observed in the data. Compared to the standard model, the worker selection model has both qualitative and quantitative …
Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang
Comments On “Rich Debt, Poor Debt: Assessing Household Indebtedness And Debt Repayment Capacity”, Sock Yong Phang
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper assesses the system-wide impacts of Malaysia’s rising household debt.Malaysia’s household debt-to-GDP ratio (HDGR) increased from 76% in 2009 to 89%in 2016. This increase has raised concerns regarding the implications for householdfinancial resilience and banking system stability. The paper uses a micro-level datasetthat integrates income and debt to calculate financial margin (FM) and the probabilityof default (PD) for individuals at the baseline, and when subject to various shocks.This allows the estimation of loss to lenders in the event of default, and from there,the banking system’s debt-at-risk. The findings show that default is more likely forhouseholds with a debt service …