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2015

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Articles 1 - 30 of 52

Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics

Oil Exploration Economics: Empirical Evidence From Indonesian Geological Basins, Hari Patria, Vid Adrison Dec 2015

Oil Exploration Economics: Empirical Evidence From Indonesian Geological Basins, Hari Patria, Vid Adrison

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Oil exploration has been subject to economic research for decades. Earlier studies of exploration models are mostly discussed the behavior of exploration at the macro-level analysis such as field, firm, region, and continental. This paper then focuses on the geological and economic factors that determine the well-drilling decision at the micro-level using disaggregated panel data of 32 geological basins in Indonesia over the period of 2004-2013. This study shows that the number of drilled wells is determined significantly by the lag of success rate, lag of discovery size, lag of global oil price, and regional location of geological basin.

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Managing Productivity In The Infrastructure Sector: A Case Study From Indonesia, Eric R. W. Knight Dec 2015

Managing Productivity In The Infrastructure Sector: A Case Study From Indonesia, Eric R. W. Knight

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper considers the nature of assessing productivity and effectiveness in infrastructure investment in the context of governments increasing investment in new infrastructure. Taking the case of energy infrastructure investment within Indonesia, this paper makes three contributions: (i) develops a model for assessing infrastructure productivity based on landscape, regime and niche-level changes, (ii) suggests the interconnection between these levels based on sequencing multi-level changes over time, and (iii) shows the role of supply and demand side initiatives in enabling new infrastructure investment is evaluated.

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Determinants Of Firm Innovation In Indonesia: The Role Of Institutions And Access To Finance, Edo Mahendra, Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Ratnawati Muyanto Dec 2015

Determinants Of Firm Innovation In Indonesia: The Role Of Institutions And Access To Finance, Edo Mahendra, Ubaidillah Zuhdi, Ratnawati Muyanto

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This paper investigates the determinants of firm innovation in Indonesia. Using quality of local regulations index constructed by the Indonesia's Regional Autonomy Watch (KPPOD) as measure of institutions, We found that better institutional quality at the local level was associated with more innovation and that firms experiencing major obstacle in access to finance were less likely to innovate. Access to finance is more critical for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) whereas institutional quality is more important for large firms. The positive impact of better institutions on innovation is asymmetrically distributed. Better local institutional quality disproportionately benefited non-constrained firms.

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Unequal Impact Of Price Changes In Indonesia, Ruly Pratikno, Mohamad Ikhsan Dec 2015

Unequal Impact Of Price Changes In Indonesia, Ruly Pratikno, Mohamad Ikhsan

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The main idea of this study is to determine the impact of relative inflation on poverty incidents and to investigate whether inflation inequality has occurred in Indonesia. Interesting results were found at regional level. Firstly, Jakarta had different poverty response with respect to price increases. Processed food and transportation inflation were more imperative for the poor in Jakarta. Secondly, the poor in province with low poverty figures were more prone to inflation. In general, the results show that food inflation has the major adverse impact on the poor. Moreover, we found that inflation in Indonesia has not been pro-poor.

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Inflation, External Market Performance And Government Policy: An Empirical Investigation Using Var-Vecm Approach In The Context Of Ethiopia, Nardos M. Beyene Dec 2015

Inflation, External Market Performance And Government Policy: An Empirical Investigation Using Var-Vecm Approach In The Context Of Ethiopia, Nardos M. Beyene

International Journal of African Development

This study aims at determining the effectiveness of demand management policies in stabilizing the macroeconomic environment of Ethiopian economy. Inflation and Balance of Payments are used as the two indicators of stability. The researcher made use of Co-integrated VAR approach and estimates inflation and balance of payments equations. All together the researcher used data for the period 1976-2011. The findings of the study imply the existence of two-way relationship between inflation and balance of payments. Excess balance of payment surplus leads to inflationary pressures in the economy while inflation booming deteriorates the country’s external balance.

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Working Capital Requirement And The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle, Tsu-Ting Tim Lin Dec 2015

Working Capital Requirement And The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle, Tsu-Ting Tim Lin

Economics Faculty Publications

Shimer (2005) argues that a search and matching model of the labor market in which wage is determined by Nash bargaining cannot generate the observed volatility in unemployment and vacancy in response to reasonable labor productivity shocks. This paper examines how incorporating monopolistically competitive firms with a working capital requirement (in which firms borrow funds to pay their wage bills) improves the ability of the search models to match the empirical fluctuations in unemployment and vacancy without resorting to an alternative wage setting mechanism. The monetary authority follows an interest rate rule in the model. A positive labor productivity shock …

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Macroeconomic Stabilization When The Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling, Sebastien Buttet, Udayan Roy Oct 2015

Macroeconomic Stabilization When The Natural Real Interest Rate Is Falling, Sebastien Buttet, Udayan Roy

Publications and Research

The authors modify the Dynamic Aggregate Demand–Dynamic Aggregate Supply model in Mankiw’s widely-used intermediate macroeconomics textbook to discuss monetary policy when the natural real interest rate is falling over time. Their results highlight a new role for the central bank’s inflation target as a tool of macroeconomic stabilization. They show that even when the zero lower bound is not binding, a prudent central bank will need to match every decrease in the natural real interest rate with an equal increase in the target rate of inflation in order to stabilize the risk of the economy falling into a deflationary spiral, …

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Impact Of International Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii Sep 2015

Impact Of International Remittances On Schooling In The Philippines: Does The Relationship To The Household Head Matter?, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the impact of international remittances on schooling in the Philippines, taking into account the school-age individual's relationship to the household head. This consideration is important because employment opportunities abroad may be taken at the expense of the quality of child rearing. Our estimation results indicate that there are, indeed, significant negative guardian effects on school attendance and education expenditures when children with overseas parents are looked after by a relative other than a parent or grandparent. However, these negative effects tend to be outweighed by the positive impact of remittance flows from overseas.

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Current Account And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics In Indonesia, Firman Mochtar, Yoga Affandi Aug 2015

Current Account And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics In Indonesia, Firman Mochtar, Yoga Affandi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006) approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007), two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movements of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rates changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in …

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Improving Human Capital Through Better Education To Support Indonesia's Economic Development, Latif Adam, Siwage Dharma Negara Aug 2015

Improving Human Capital Through Better Education To Support Indonesia's Economic Development, Latif Adam, Siwage Dharma Negara

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Despite Indonesia's impressive economic growth, it still lags behind other countries with a similar income level in terms of the quality of its human capital. This paper argues that one key factor explaining this low quality of human capital relates to the lack of focus and clear strategies to develop its education system. This paper attempts to assess Indonesia's current state of human capital development with particular focus on it's education sector. In order to benefit from its demographic bonus, Indonesia needs to to improve its current education and skill training system. Better education and skill training system will support …

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Rural Electrification Program In Indonesia: Comparing Sehen And Shs Program, Maxensius Tri Sambodo Aug 2015

Rural Electrification Program In Indonesia: Comparing Sehen And Shs Program, Maxensius Tri Sambodo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In 2014, the Indonesian government has targets to obtain 80% of electrification ratio and 98.9% of rural electrification ratio. Extending the grid and off-grid connection has been done to obtain the targets. This paper aims to compare two main programs on rural electrification namely Super Extra Energy Saving (Super Ekstra Hemat Energi, SEHEN) that is belong to PLN (state owned company in electricity) and the Solar Home System (SHS) that is financed by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR). Indonesia has started the rural electrification program in the late 1950s, but how to provide electricity in a sustainable …

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Revisiting Stock Market Integration Pre-Post Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Insight From Bric Countries, Rayenda Brahmana, Chin-Hong Puah, Kai-Hung Wong Aug 2015

Revisiting Stock Market Integration Pre-Post Subprime Mortgage Crisis: Insight From Bric Countries, Rayenda Brahmana, Chin-Hong Puah, Kai-Hung Wong

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study revisits the long-run relationships and short-run dynamic causal linkages among BRIC stock market, with the particular attention to the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Extending related empirical studies, comparative analyses of pre-crisis, and post-crisis periods were conducted to comprehensively evaluate how stock market integration was affected by financial crises. In general, after employing cointegration test and VAR test, the results reveal the increase of stock market integration in BRICs after the subprime crisis. The evidence also found that China stock market is the most influential among the BRICs, in which China stock market has the ability to Granger cause …

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"Does Inflation Targeting Framework Make A Significant Difference In Lowering Price Level?" What Is Its Implication To Indonesia's Inflation Rate?, Faisal Rachman Aug 2015

"Does Inflation Targeting Framework Make A Significant Difference In Lowering Price Level?" What Is Its Implication To Indonesia's Inflation Rate?, Faisal Rachman

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

In the last two decades many countries have been starting to employ Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) as their main monetary policy framework. This is done to achieve an objective of anchoring public expectation on inflation which in the end will steer the price level movement towards ITF's ultimate target of relatively low and stable inflation rate. By conducting Difference-in-Difference method on panel data consisting of five countries implementing ITF since 2001 and twenty-one selected non-ITF countries for period 1990-2010, it is statistically proved that ITF adoption has a significant effect on inflation. In case of Indonesia, through Structural Break approach, …

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The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran Aug 2015

The Role Of The State In Singapore: Pragmatism In Pursuit Of Growth, Kim Song Tan, Manu Bhaskaran

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper looks at how government intervention shapes the evolution of the Singapore economy and accounts for its successes and failures over the past 50 years. Compared with other dynamic Asian economies, the Singapore government's approach to intervene in the economy is both more extensive and more intrusive, but with a narrow focus on GDP growth and surplus accumulation as the primary objectives. The ruling government's near complete dominance in politics has enabled it to mobilize resources to create the preconditions for strong GDP growth and high savings. But the impact on the broader development of the economy and the …

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Determinants Of Farm And Non-Farm Family-Controlled Child Labor, Kofi Acheampong Jul 2015

Determinants Of Farm And Non-Farm Family-Controlled Child Labor, Kofi Acheampong

International Journal of African Development

Ninety five percent of the child labor in Africa takes place in private households where children are controlled by their relatives. While this is a major problem, the literature provides little discussion on the determinants of this form of child labor. To fill this gap, I examine the determinants of farm and non-farm family-controlled child labor using data from the 2009 Ghana Time Use Survey. The findings indicate that school networks, the education level of the head of household, and religion play important roles in determining children’s activities in both farm and non-farm work.

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Predictability Of Exchange Rates With Taylor Rule Fundamentals: Evidence From Inflation-Targeting Emerging Countries, Joseph D. Alba, Donghyun Park, Taojun Xie Jul 2015

Predictability Of Exchange Rates With Taylor Rule Fundamentals: Evidence From Inflation-Targeting Emerging Countries, Joseph D. Alba, Donghyun Park, Taojun Xie

Research Collection School Of Economics

We investigate the out-of-sample predictability of U.S. dollar exchange rates with Taylor rule fundamentals in thirteen emerging countries with inflation-targeting monetary policy regimes. We find some evidence of out-of-sample exchange rate predictability for Brazil, Czech Republic, Hungary, Philippines, Thailand, and South Africa. Plots of the coefficients of U.S. inflation and Philippine inflation predict the direction of the U.S. dollar-Philippine peso exchange rates to be opposite to that predicted by the Taylor principle.

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European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (Esfrc) (2015) : Escalating Crisis In The Eurozone: The Case For Conditional Debt Relief For Greece (Statement No. 40), David Veredas, Niels Thygesen, Tom Berglund, Reinhard H. Schmidt, Franco Bruni, Harald Benink, Kern Alexander, Santiago Carbo-Valverde, Rosa Lastra, Clas Wihlborg Jun 2015

European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (Esfrc) (2015) : Escalating Crisis In The Eurozone: The Case For Conditional Debt Relief For Greece (Statement No. 40), David Veredas, Niels Thygesen, Tom Berglund, Reinhard H. Schmidt, Franco Bruni, Harald Benink, Kern Alexander, Santiago Carbo-Valverde, Rosa Lastra, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

In this statement the European Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee (ESFRC) is advocating a conditional relief of Greek's government debt based on Greece meeting certain targets for structural economic reforms in areas such as its labor market and pensions sector. The authors argue that the position of the European institutions that debt relief for Greece cannot be part of an agreement is based on the illusion that Greece will be able to service its sovereign debt and reduce its debt overhang after implementing a set of fiscal and structural reforms. However, the Greek economy would need to grow at an unrealistic …

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Is All Foreign Aid The Same? : An Empirical Comparison Of The Effect Of Multilateral And Bilateral Aid On Growth, Scott B. Jeffrey May 2015

Is All Foreign Aid The Same? : An Empirical Comparison Of The Effect Of Multilateral And Bilateral Aid On Growth, Scott B. Jeffrey

Undergraduate Economic Review

Despite decades of research on foreign aid, there is little to no consensus on foreign aid’s effect on growth. While most in the field study recipient country characteristics, such as institutional quality, this paper also breaks down foreign aid by donor characteristics, specifically by bilateral and multilateral donors. Since about 75% of foreign aid is bilateral, my bilateral findings are in line with previous literature that finds high institutional quality key (Burnside and Dollar 2000; 2004), but I find that multilateral aid works best in low-income countries with poor policy environments, due, perhaps, to lacking political goals of donor countries.

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The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Labor Market Measures: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, David A. Mayom May 2015

The Impact Of Foreign Direct Investment On Labor Market Measures: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, David A. Mayom

Master's Theses

There is scant literature examining the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor market measures in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. This paper explores the effect of FDI on the labor market measures using panel data of 48 Sub-Saharan African Countries from 1991 to 2009. The result indicates that FDI has a positive and significant effect on employment implying that an increase in the inflow of FDI is associated with higher employment. Thus, Sub-Saharan African governments should strongly consider poverty alleviation and employment policies that encourage and direct FDI to the industries where it can significantly reduce unemployment.

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Gender Bias In Microlending: Do Opposites Attract?, Kanyinsola Adepoju May 2015

Gender Bias In Microlending: Do Opposites Attract?, Kanyinsola Adepoju

Master's Theses

This study exploits a quasi-random assignment of clients to loan officers using a unique database and survey from a large microfinance bank in Nigeria to show that opposite-sex preferences affect credit demand and supply. We find that clients matched to loan officers of the opposite gender are more likely to receive credit and are more likely to return for an additional loan with the credit lender.

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The Curious Case Of Greece: The Impact Of Fiscal Policy Shocks On Key Macroeconomic Variables. A Var Based Approach., Manny Kaliontzakis May 2015

The Curious Case Of Greece: The Impact Of Fiscal Policy Shocks On Key Macroeconomic Variables. A Var Based Approach., Manny Kaliontzakis

Master's Theses

For years, the Vector Autoregressive approach has been the main tool for monetary economics and macroeconomic researchers around the world. Leading central banking figures, academics, and modern economic think tanks have used the approach to determine the effects of interest rate shocks on basic macroeconomic variables such as GDP, industrial production and unemployment rate. Shocking policy variables, such as interest rates or long term bond rates have given economists the ability to run reliable forecasts. The last 20 years have seen a turn in the use of the VAR approach on fiscal policy as well. Even though, in general, previous …

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Privatization & Fdi: Examining Growth In Vietnam's Provinces, William T. Clark May 2015

Privatization & Fdi: Examining Growth In Vietnam's Provinces, William T. Clark

Master's Theses

Over the past three decades many developing countries have looked toward privatizing investment markets and relying more on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to supply needed capital investment for their emerging private sectors. In their pursuit of foreign capital, developing countries have enacted several changes in economic policy and regulation in hopes of transforming formerly rural and undeveloped countries into highly urbanized centers of global production. This is particularly true for a transitioning economy such as Vietnam, which has seen increasing privatization of industry and investment since the reforms of 1986 known as “Doi Moi.” In this study I …

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The Effects Of Quantitative Easing In The United States: Implications For Future Central Bank Policy Makers, Matthew Q. Rubino May 2015

The Effects Of Quantitative Easing In The United States: Implications For Future Central Bank Policy Makers, Matthew Q. Rubino

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effects of the Federal Reserve’s recent bond buying programs, specifically Quantitative Easing 1, Quantitative Easing 2, Operation Twist (or the Fed’s Maturity Extension Program), and Quantitative Easing 3. In this study, I provide a picture of the economic landscape leading up to the deployment of the programs, an overview of quantitative easing including each program’s respective objectives, and how and why the Fed decided to implement the programs. Using empirical analysis, I measure each program’s effectiveness by applying four models including a yield curve model, an inflation model, a money supply …

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Fishing For A Sustainable Future: Aquaponics As A Method Of Food Production, Richard Ramsundar May 2015

Fishing For A Sustainable Future: Aquaponics As A Method Of Food Production, Richard Ramsundar

Student Theses 2015-Present

This thesis compares and explains the advantages aquaponics farming has over modern industrial intensive farming. Through a comparison natural capital usage, conservation, recycling and cost, the thesis advocates for the expansion of aquaponics usage in urban settings. The thesis also explains the history of intensive farming and aquaponics in America, the science of how aquaponics operates, the economic and environmental costs of modern intensive farming versus aquaponics farming, and the social implications of aquaponics. Lastly, I propose a policy that reallocates farm subsidies by modifying the Farm Bill. Then I propose policies that support creating a new standard of farm …

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Economic Growth And Development In Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, And Latin America: The Impact Of Human Capital, Angui D. Macham May 2015

Economic Growth And Development In Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, And Latin America: The Impact Of Human Capital, Angui D. Macham

Applied Economics Theses

My thesis is that human capital has been important to growth, but has had differential impact in three areas: Sub-Sahara Africa; Asia; and Latin America. I estimated three regional models to determine the impact of human capital on the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Each model was estimated using the pooled OLS approach with a sample of 10 countries within each region. I make use of data from the Penn World Table- international comparisons of production data bank. I found that only the African region had statistically significant coefficients for both physical and human capital. For the …

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Foreign Investors Are Finding Vietnam Increasingly Attractive, Tony Diep, Hawkins Pham May 2015

Foreign Investors Are Finding Vietnam Increasingly Attractive, Tony Diep, Hawkins Pham

Asian Management Insights

A new wave of mergers and acquisitions and foreign direct investments is coming into Vietnam thanks to macro stability, an emerging middle class and changes in Asia’s manufacturing landscape.

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Role And Impact Of Energy In The Business Cycle, Bao Tan Huynh May 2015

Role And Impact Of Energy In The Business Cycle, Bao Tan Huynh

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Given the fundamental role of energy in the economy, the macroeconomic literature contains a large body of work on the impact of oil/energy on the business cycle, with much of the attention focusing on energy supply shocks, mostly modeled as exogenous oil/energy price increases. And yet, the oil price hikes pre-2008 suggest that other shocks to the energy market may be the source of such instance of price disturbances, so that their effects on the economy are no longer predicted by exogenous energy supply shocks. In such scenario, it is no longer valid to treat energy price disturbances as exogenous …

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An Experimental Analysis Of Adaptive Learning In A Multi-Subject Economy, David Martin Apr 2015

An Experimental Analysis Of Adaptive Learning In A Multi-Subject Economy, David Martin

Business and Economics Honors Papers

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) has long served as a foundation in macroeconomic laws of motion. However, the assumptions of REH are likely too powerful to be representative of economic actors. This research evaluates adaptive learning, a developing alternative to rational expectations, using a multi-agent macroeconomic prediction “game.” Data was gathered from a group of students, each predicting the outcome of a single economy over time. Each agent was asked to forecast output (GDP) and inflation in each period based on historic levels of output, inflation, and interest rates. These data were then analyzed under various theoretical models of adaptive …

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The Economy Of Oaxaca Decomposed, Albert Codina Sala Apr 2015

The Economy Of Oaxaca Decomposed, Albert Codina Sala

Honors College Theses

We analyze the internal economy of Oaxaca State in southern Mexico across regions, districts and municipalities from 1999 to 2009. Using the concept of economic convergence, we find mixed evidence for poorer areas catching up with richer areas during a single decade of economic growth. Indeed, some poorer regions thanks to negative growth have actually diverged away from wealthier areas.

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Benefits Of Eu Membership For The Transition Countries: The Case Of Latvia, Marko Martinovic Apr 2015

Benefits Of Eu Membership For The Transition Countries: The Case Of Latvia, Marko Martinovic

Economics Honors Projects

This paper estimates the benefits of EU membership for Latvia, a former communist country and a member of the former USSR. It is widely believed that the EU membership significantly contributes to raising living standards and growth of the economies of new members. Using counterfactual analysis with the official date of accession of 2003 I find that Latvia demonstrates stronger economic growth from the EU membership, but only up to 2009. After the 2009 financial crisis Latvia’s economic growth is severally compromised as a consequence of joining the EU. When 1999 is treated as the treatment year, the year when …

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