Macroeconomics Commons^™

Estimating A Small-Scale Macroeconometric Model (Ssmm) For Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Approach, Charlse N.O Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper attempts to develop a small scale macroeconometric model for the Nigerian economy using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methodology. Particular attention is paid to using impulse responses to explain the dynamic properties of the model. This model incorporates expectation as an anchor in the forward-looking monetary policy objective of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). It captures most of the channels through which policymakers believe monetary policy can influence a small open economy with a managed floating exchange rate. The model was taken to the data by means of Bayesian estimation with the following major findings. First, although …

Is The Philips Curve Useful For Monetary Policy In Nigeria, Carlos J. Garcia

CBN Occasional Papers

The objective of this article is to determine if the Phillips curve is a relevant tool to conduct monetary policy in African countries wishing to adopt an inflation-targeting regime. I choose Nigeria as a case of study because it is in the early stage of the implementation of this regime. I estimate a medium-sized model for monetary policy analysis. The model reflects a synthesis between the New Keynesian and the Real Business Cycle (RBC) approaches. Then I estimate the model by using Bayesian econometric technique in order to overcome the shortage of data availability. The study concludes that there is …

The Political Economy Of Currency Re-Denomination By Countries., Peter Nwaoba

Bullion

In the view of the Bank, redenomination policy for Nigeria was not to translate to revaluation, as market forces were to continue to determine the prices, including interest rates and exchange rates, with the expectation that inflation will be low while exchange rate will appreciate. The objective of this paper is to articulate the reasons and conditions under which countries embark on currency redenomination exercises, and how successful these exercises had been over the years. The paper is descriptive with presentation based on literature reviews. Under the redenomination programme, banknotes were to be issued in denominations of new 50k (old …

The Performance Of Nigerian Stock Exchange Sectoral Indices: January 2009 December 2010, Alvan E. Ikoku, George Okorie

Bullion

The paper reviews the performance of the sectoral indices during the first twenty-four months of their existence, i.e., between their inception in January 2009 and December 2010. The authors seek to examine not only the raw performance of the indices but also their risk-adjusted performance. The results of the analysis will facilitate the allocation of capital by institutional as well as individual investors in the Nigerian equity market. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the transformation of the indices and their correlation. In section 3, we examine the nominal performance of the sectoral indices …

Impact Of Banking Sector Reforms On The Nigerian Capital Market (Equities)., Peter A. Adekunle

Bullion

Following the outcome of the Special Joint Examination by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), ten banks were indicted, out of which two were asked to recapitalize, while the Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) and Directors of the remaining eight were removed by CBN based on mismanagement and poor corporate governance. In order to protect the investors as well as prevent unprecedented dumping of the shares of the listed seven banks, two weeks of full suspension was imposed on trading of their shares on the stock market at various times. This paper attempts to determine …

The Role Of Economic Community Of West African States (Ecowas) In Promoting Borderless Trade In West Africa., Adam J. Akperan, Sanni Ganiyu Kayode

Bullion

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) is a regional group of fifteen countries, founded in 1975. Its mission is to promote economic integration in "all fields of economic activities, particularly industry, transport, telecommunications, energy, agriculture, natural resources, commerce, monetary and financial questions, social and cultural matters". This paper examines the role of CBN economy and monetary policies on the heels of borderless trade amongst the ECOWAS State. ECOWAS aims to promote peace, co-operation and integration in economic, social and cultural activity, ultimately leading to the establishment of an economic and monetary union through the total integration of the …

Energy And Economic Growth: A State-Level Analysis, Nathanael D. Peach

Faculty Publications - College of Business

No abstract provided.

Tough Economic Decisions, Ishrat Husain

Faculty Research - Newspaper and Magazine Articles

PAKISTAN has never been hit by such adverse shocks as in the past few years. All of these have occurred in quick succession and their speed, intensity, duration and magnitude are unparalleled. The war on terrorism has caused enormous loss to life, property and order. It is still going on. The bulk of the population was already suffering from diminished purchasing power due to high inflation, stagnating incomes and growing unemployment. The global economy has been in recession and has remained unhelpful in stimulating the domestic economy. There are few expectations of economic recovery at this stage. On top of …

The Rise And Fall Of Glass-Steagall, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, Warren C. Gibson

Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Macroeconomic Effects Of Over-Investment In Housing In An Aggregative Model Of Economic Activity, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is there a theoretical basis for the view that the end of a period of over-investment necessarily leads to a period of below-normal employment as the excess capital stock is run down? We study the repercussions of a false boom in housing driven by prior expectations of future housing prices not justified by fundamentals. When these expectations are corrected, the result is a precipitous drop in housing prices and, on that account alone, some drop in employment. There is also a bulge in the housing stock. In the case of a closed economy, the downward shift of the term structure …

Macroeconomic Effects Of Over-Investment In Housing In An Aggregative Model Of Economic Activity, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is there a theoretical basis for the view that the end of a period of over-investment necessarily leads to a period of below-normal employment as the excess capital stock is run down? We study the repercussions of a false boom in housing driven by prior expectations of future housing prices not justified by fundamentals. When these expectations are corrected, the result is a precipitous drop in housing prices and, on that account alone, some drop in employment. There is also a bulge in the housing stock. In the closed economy case, the downward shift of the term structure of interest …

Banking Reforms For Effective Monetary Policy Transmissions., O. A. Uchendu

Bullion

This paper evaluates the effects of the recent banking sector in Nigeria on monetary policy transmission. The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: section two dwells on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; section three examines the features of the banking sector that affect the conduct of monetary policy; section four presents banking sector reforms in Nigeria while section five examines the impact of the reforms on monetary policy. Section six presents the challenges while section seven concludes the paper.

The Nigerian Financial Crisis: Lessons, Prospects And Way Forward, Charles N. O. Mordi

Bullion

This paper x-rays the recent banking sector crisis in Nigeria, its resolution, lessons learned and way forward. The paper is divided into six main sections. Following the introduction, section 2 highlights country experiences of banking crisis and resolution options, while section 3 gives an overview of financial crisis in Nigeria; section 4 discusses the recent financial crises in Nigeria (2000-2009), while section 5 presents the 2009 banking crises and its causes. The most recent reform measures are discussed in section 6. ln sections 7 and 8, the lessons of experience and the way forward are presented, while the concluding remarks …

Reforming The Nigerian Banking Sector: Some Emerging Issues., Biodun Adedipe

Bullion

When the ongoing reforms of banking in Nigeria commenced, there were several arguments against the seeming harshness of the measures. As the revelations increased, the argument became the manner the revelations were made. All these pointed to the capacity of humans to resist change. lt was generally accepted that things went terribly wrong and some drastic steps needed to be taken. This paper examines existing and emerging financial reforms in the Nigeria banking sector. The outcome of the greed-induced crisis was not peculiar to Nigeria, as banks failed all around the world as their capital was eroded. There are obvious …

How Does Income Inequality Affect The Growth Of U.S. Counties?, Jeremy Roth

Economics Honors Projects

This paper aims to conduct a precise test of the political economy hypothesis linking income inequality and economic growth. By choosing covariates from a detailed county-level dataset and assuming that U.S. counties experience perfect capital mobility, I shut off the four possible channels linking inequality and growth other than political economy. This is a first in an empirical literature that has reported conflicting findings with observations of states and countries. I also present thematic maps to illustrate the cross-county variation in key growth determinants that is masked by state-level studies. My econometric tests find a negative association between the initial …

If A Pure Market Economy Is So Good, Why Doesn’T It Exist? The Importance Of Changing Preferences Versus Incentives In Social Change, Jeffrey Rogers Hummel, Edward P. Stringham

Faculty Publications

Many economists argue that a pure market economy cannot come about because people will always have incentives to use coercion (Cowen and Sutter, 2005; Holcombe, 2004). We maintain that these economists leave out an important factor in social change. Change can come about by altering incentives or preferences, but since most neoclassical economists ignore changing preferences, they too quickly conclude that change is impossible. History shows that social change based on changes in preferences is common. By recognizing that preferences need not be constant, political economists can say much more about changing the world.

Philadelphia Fed Forecasting Surveys: Their Value For Research, Dean D. Croushore

Economics Faculty Publications

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has conducted both the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Livingston Survey for 20 years. Both surveys of private-sector forecasters provide researchers, central bankers, news media, and the public with detailed forecasts of major macroeconomic variables. The surveys have proved helpful for people who are planning for the future, and they have also provided useful input into the decisions of policymakers at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere. In this article, Dean Croushore provides an overview of the surveys and discusses the ways in which researchers have used the surveys.

Is The Export-Led-Growth Hypothesis, Valid For Egypt? A Time Series Approach, Nagwa Khashaba, Abdelhamid Mahboub, William Latham, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

This research addresses important empirical questions regarding the relationship between Egyptian exports and Egyptian economic growth by extending the Dirtsakis’s model (Dritsakis, 2004, p. 1834) with the addition of the labor force into the model. The hypothesis to be tested is, does export expansion cause economic growth in Egypt? In other words, is the Export-Led-Growth (ELG) hypothesis valid for Egypt?

This study analyzes the issue of ELG hypothesis in Egypt using the VAR analysis, quarterly time-series data over the period 1991:q1-2009:q4. The results tend to favor the effectiveness and validity of the ELG hypothesis for Egypt.

Banking System Credit As An Instrument Of Economic Growth In Nigeria, Andrew O. Agbada

Bullion

Globally, banks in developing countries are expected to play very vital and effective roles in financing their economic projects and activities as their contribution in ensuring sustainable economic growth. This expectation is as a result of the fact that there is acute shortage of capital in the developing countries of the world. ln this paper, attempt was made to address how banking system credit can be used as an instrument of economic growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives that banking system credit were expected to achieve were also stated. lt's was revealed that though credits have increased tremendously in recent …

Naira Convertibility: The Journey So Far, Moses K. Tule

Bullion

This paper examines the path to Naira Convertibility, the Journey so far. lt avers that convertibility is pursued by countries either as an economic management approach or as a tool for achieving higher reckoning on the global economic stage. Consequently, the examples of Argentina, Chile, Peru, Brazil, etc could fall in the first category while the Russian Rubble push could qualify for the second group. Nigeria's efforts at Naira convertibility would fall. The paper suggested that Nigeria should initiate a more realistic Naira convertibility programme through trade guarantees where it insists that imports from Nigeria from member ECOWAS members would …

An Overview Of Financial Sector Reforms And Intermediation In Nigeria, George Okorie, Uche J. Uwaleke

Bullion

_{Financial systems all over the world play very important roles in the development and growth of the economy. However, the effectiveness and efficiency of the system as well as its scope and capacity varies quite considerably among economies. This is partly because of the varied levels of ,development. More developed financial systems tend to be associated with the more developed economies. This paper advocates the speedy adoption of international financial reporting standard for all Nigerian banks (currently in the pipeline). This reform, while by no means a cure-all for problems of bank transparency, would nonetheless be a significant step forward, …}

Islamic Banking In Nigeria: Issues And Prospects, Ismaila S. Abdullahi

Bullion

This paper analyzes the challenging issues and highlight the prospects of Islamic banking in Nigeria. Following this introduction is section two which discusses the evolution of Islamic banking including the basic principles as well as the products/services offered by the system. Section three reviews Islamic banking practices in Nigeria. Section four analyzes the challenging issues and highlights the prospects of practicing Islamic banking in Nigeria. Section five concludes the paper and proffers policy recommendations.

Macroeconomics Stress Testing On Malaysia Commercial Banks' Credit Portfolios., Foo Chii Shia

Student Works (2010-2019)

In the research paper, quarterly data on Non-performing Loan (NPL) for commercial banks in Malaysia over the time period of quarter 1, 1998 to quarter 4, 2009 together with 5 macroeconomic indicators i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (KLCI), Unemployment rate and House Property Index are collected to form a credit risk model. The estimated model is employed to analyse banking credit risks conditional on current macroeconomic conditions. Stepwise multiple regression method has been used which to select the useful subsets of variables and to evaluate the order of importance of variables. Furthermore, …

The Impact Of Short Term Economic Data On The Perception Of Public Officials: Analysis Of The 2008 Economic Crisis And The American Presidential Election, James A. Foster

Honors Capstones

Capstone submitted as a graduation requirement for the BSU Honors Program.

Financial Stability, The Trilemma, And International Reserves, Maurice Obstfeld, Jay C. Shambaugh, Alan M. Taylor

Dartmouth Scholarship

The rapid growth of international reserves, a development concentrated in the emerging markets, remains a puzzle. In this paper, we suggest that a model based on financial stability and financial openness goes far toward explaining reserve holdings in the modern era of globalized capital markets. The size of domestic financial liabilities that could potentially be converted into foreign currency (M2), financial openness, the ability to access foreign currency through debt markets, and exchange rate policy are all significant predictors of reserve stocks. Our empirical financial-stability model seems to outperform both traditional models and recent explanations based on external short-term debt.

The Financial Crisis, Rethinking Of The Global Financial Architecture, And The Trilemma, Joshua Aizenman, Menzie David Chinn, Hiro Ito

Economics Faculty Publications and Presentations

This paper extends our previous paper (Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito 2008) and explores some of the unexplored questions. First, we examine the channels through which the trilemma policy configurations affect output volatility. Secondly, we investigate how trilemma policy configurations affect the output performance of the economies under severe crisis situations. Thirdly, we look into how trilemma configurations have evolved in the aftermath of economic crises in the past. We find that trilemma policy configurations and external finances affect output volatility mainly through the investment channel. While a higher degree of exchange rate stability could stabilize the real exchange rate movement, …

Determinants Of Housing Prices In Pittsylvania County, Jason Hall

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

The purpose of this research is to determine the implicit factors influencing housing prices in Pittsylvania County, a rural county in Southside Virginia. Currently in Pittsylvania County there is a debate over whether or not to mine what is believed to be the largest deposit of uranium in the United States, containing approximately 119 million pounds of uranium ore at an estimated value of $7 billion to $10 billion. The Virginia Coal and Energy Commission issued its final approval for the National Academy of Sciences to study the debate from a socio-economic standpoint. The $1.2 million study is currently taking …

An Examination Of Non-Linear Relationships Between Intellectual Property Rights Protection And Growth, Brian R. Lemak

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper examines the possibility of a non-linear relationship existing between intellectual property rights protection (IPR) and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates. A theoretical justification is developed for the potential existence of a non-linear relationship in terms of a quadratic relationship. This is then examined using panel data from 191 countries and taken in 5 year intervals, although the data had many missing observations. Results indicate there is statistically significant evidence that a quadratic relationship exists between IPR and GDP growth, however there are reservations about this evidence due to a dearth of observations in countries with very weak …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2010, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

2010 annual report reviews the operations of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and appraises the macroeconomic policies in 2010. the report is structured into two parts. Part 1 reviews the corporate operations of the bank, while the part 2 evaluates the performance of the economy against the challenges in both the thrust of monetary policy and other financial measures was to improve liquidity and enhance the efficiency and stability of the financial system without compromising the primary goal of monetary and price stability.

Financial Liberalization And Banking Crises: A Cross-Country Analysis, Apanard P. Angkinand, Wanvimol Sawangngoenyuang, Clas Wihlborg

Business Faculty Articles and Research

Several studies indicate that financial liberalization contributes to the likelihood of a financial crisis. We focus on banking crises and argue that they are most likely to occur after an intermediate degree of liberalization. Using a recently updated dataset for financial reforms in 48 countries between 1973 and 2005, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between liberalization and the likelihood of crisis. We ask whether the relationship remains when institutional characteristics of countries and dynamic effects of liberalization are considered. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between liberalization and banking crises depends strongly on the strength of capital regulation …