Macroeconomics Commons^™

What Drives Sovereign Sukuk Development? The Role Of Institutional Quality And Macroeconomic Conditions In Oic Countries, Rahmatina Awaliah Kasri, Aulia Utami

International Journal of Islamic Economics and Business Sustainability

Purpose – The study examines the relationship between institutional quality, macroeconomic conditions, and sovereign sukuk outstanding in eight member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) during 2014–2021.

Design/methodology/approach– The study employs panel data for Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Türkiye. Institutional quality is measured using government effectiveness, control of corruption, regulatory quality, and voice and accountability. Macroeconomic variables included are economic size, inflation, and oil rents. Fixed-effects panel regressions with robust standard errors are applied following model specification and diagnostic tests.

Findings – Economic size and voice and accountability are positively associated …

Usability Of Bitcoin As Currency In Türkiye: Fourier Shin Approach, İsmail Cem Özkurt, Deniz Özyakışır, Yunus Kutval

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

This paper seeks to assess the feasibility of utilizing Bitcoin as a currency within Türkiye. To achieve this, the research analyzes long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the US Dollar and Euro, employing monthly data from November 2017 to February 2025 and utilizing the Fourier Shin cointegration test. The results of the cointegration tests, bolstered by Fourier series analysis, reveal significant long-term cointegration relationships between Bitcoin and both the USD and Euro. The DOLS analysis indicates that a 1% rise in Bitcoin leads to a 14% decrease in the USD price and a 17% increase in the Euro. These …

Mengukur Capaian Dan Identifikasi Konvergensi Pembangunan Infrastruktur Antarprovinsi Di Indonesia, Ressa Isnaini Arumnisaa', Aisyah Fitri Yuniasih

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Indonesia’s economic challenges are characterized by stagnant economic growth and regional development disparities. This study analyzes the achievement and convergence of infrastructure development across provinces in Indonesia during 2011–2021 through the construction of an Infrastructure Development Index (IPI). The study employs panel data from 33 provinces, using factor analysis to construct the IPI and the First Difference Generalized Method of Moments (FD-GMM) to examine convergence and its determinants. The results show that many provinces still have IDI scores below the national average. Furthermore, the FD-GMM model shows that σ-convergence and β-convergence occur in Indonesia. In addition, GRDP per capita, inflation, …

The Role Of Bank Portfolio Heterogeneity In The Fiscal Stimulus Policy In Indonesia, Michael Kusuma, Brigitha Mega Rebeca

BISNIS & BIROKRASI: Jurnal Ilmu Administrasi dan Organisasi

Fiscal stimulus transmission is often hindered by banking frictions from risk-averse behavior and channel specialization. To evaluate the fiscal stimulus policy in Indonesia, this study introduces a modified Input-Output (I-O) framework integrated with bank portfolio-based shock vectors. This approach captures banking frictions by incorporating institution-specific portfolio weights into the macro-simulation framework, providing a more realistic assessment than standard uniform-transmission assumptions. Three scenarios are simulated (policy design, interim realization, and expansionary response) to assess the macroeconomic impacts of credit concentration. The results reveal a significant gap between the initial policy design and its actual realization, generating an economic opportunity loss of …

Economic Drivers Of International Migration To Türkiye: A Regional Comparison Study, Bekir Gündoğmuş, Musa Bayir, Ahmed Yusuf Sarihan

Makara Human Behavior Studies in Asia

This study investigates the macroeconomic determinants of registered international migration to Türkiye by employing panel data regression techniques at the NUTS-2 regional level for the period 2016–2022. The results reveal that per capita income, employment, and the share of industry, services, and construction sectors in total production have a statistically significant and positive impact on migration inflows, while inflation exhibits a negative effect. However, agricultural production proportion and export performance do not appear to significantly influence regional migrant preferences. Causality tests further support the existence of both bidirectional and unidirectional relationships between economic indicators and migration. The findings underscore the …

The Satu Wakaf Indonesia Application Development Strategy, Nurul Huda, Nova Rini, Rahma Aini Nur, Ariel Nian Gani, Muhammad Rofi'i, Nur Syamsudin Buchori

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

The Satu Wakaf Indonesia application is a new platform for digital waqf, which necessitates a strategic policy for its development. The needs of strategic policy stand from the current problems that occur in the implementation of the application. The objectives of this study are: (1) the key sub-elements of the Satu Wakaf Indonesia development strategy, and (2) The Satu Wakaf Indonesia development strategy using the ISM approach. The research method used is a qualitative method with the Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) approach. The data source for this study is the results of filling out questionnaires by expert informants. The results …

Firms Heterogeneity In Indonesia’S Manufacturing And Services Sectors, Rizki Nauli Siregar

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Firm heterogeneity is the building block of modern trade theories. One of its important implications is that comparative advantage is driven by firm productivity, rather than sector differences across countries. Despite the prevalence of this framework, there has not been any systematic documentation on firm heterogeneity in Indonesia’s man ufacturing and services firms. Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) data for Indonesia in 2015 and 2023, we confirm that there is firm heterogeneity in the form of size and productivity dispersion in both of the economy’s manufacturing and services sectors. We also find no strong association between size and …

The Moderating Effect Of Income Inequality On The Income–Emissions Relationship In G20 Countries, Zahra Rizky Fadilah, Budiasih Budiasih

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study analyzes the moderating effect of income inequality on the income–emissions relationship in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) framework. Findings indicate that the relationship is inverted U-shaped in middle-income G20 countries, but monotonically increasing in high-income G20 countries. Interestingly, income inequality moderates this relationship only in the latter group. These findings suggest that middle-income G20 countries should focus on raising income per capita to mitigate environmental degradation, while their high-income counterparts need to prioritize reducing income inequality to effectively decouple income from emissions.

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Insentif Fiskal Terhadap Tingkat Komponen Dalam Negeri (Tkdn) Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia, Muhammad Muhammad, Riyanto Riyanto

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Over the last decade, the manufacturing sector's contribution to Indonesia's economy has declined. In 2010, it was 29.10% of GDP, but by 2022, it had dropped to 19.14%. Employment in the sector also fell, from 14.91% of the workforce in 2010 to 13.80% in 2022. To reverse this trend, the government introduced a policy to boost the Domestic Component Level (DCL) in manufacturing. By offering fiscal incentives to industries meeting certain DCL targets, the government aims to drive economic growth and job creation. A study using BPS data from 2008-2019 shows that this policy raised DCL by 23.5%.

Tracking Impact: Leveraging Pre-Existing Monitoring Tools For Assessing Indonesia’S Free Nutritious Meal (Makan Bergizi Gratis) Programme, Putu Geniki Lavinia Natih

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Indonesia’s Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG) programme is among the largest school feeding initiatives globally, yet its rapid scale-up has outpaced the development of a robust monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) framework capable of assessing welfare-relevant outcomes. This paper examines whether pre-existing national survey instruments can be leveraged to strengthen outcome monitoring in the absence of MBG-specific microdata. Focusing on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) collected through Indonesia’s National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas), the study first situates experiential food insecurity within Indonesia’s broader food security landscape. It then applies a propensity score matching framework using participation in the Bantuan Pangan Non-Tunai …

Harnessing Zakat To Drive Inclusive Economic Growth: Prospects And Challenges, Moh Najikhul Fajri, Andini Kusumawardhani

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

This study aims to analyze the role of zakat in promoting local inclusive economic growth in Indonesia. This research uses secondary panel data of 34 provinces during 2017-2022. The analysis techniques used in this study include the Poverty Equivalent Growth Rate (PEGR) inclusive economic growth measurement method and the Static Panel Regression Fixed Effect Model. This study concludes that zakat is proven to be an effective instrument in promoting inclusive economic growth in Indonesia, with a significant impact on income distribution even though its potential is still not optimized. Unique findings reveal that inclusive growth recovered faster than GDP post-pandemic, …

The History Of Protectionism And Free Trade In The World: How Does It Impact Indonesia?, Dorothea Bening Larasati

Jurnal Vokasi Indonesia

International trade plays an important role in Indonesia's economy, with protectionism and free trade being the two main approaches in the country's trade policy. Protectionism, which aims to protect domestic industries by restricting imports, is often challenged in the face of the need to integrate global markets. In contrast, free trade seeks to open markets without barriers, which can accelerate economic growth and improve international relations. This research aims to explore the impact of protectionism and free trade policies on the Indonesian economy and provide recommendations for the government. The research uses a qualitative approach through a literature study that …

Islamic Approach Analysis Sustainable Development: The Role Of Geopolitical Risk On Environmental In Indonesia, Basri -. Basri, Muh. Asharif Suleman

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini mengkaji faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pembangunan berkelanjutan di Indonesia, dengan fokus pada kualitas lingkungan melalui perspektif Islam. Di tengah dinamika geopolitik global, risiko-risiko tersebut secara signifikan mempengaruhi kebijakan dan praktik lingkungan. Pendekatan Islam menawarkan kerangka kerja yang khas dengan mengintegrasikan nilai-nilai etika, spiritual, dan sosial ke dalam tata kelola lingkungan. Dengan menggunakan data deret waktu dari tahun 1992–2022 dan Model Koreksi Kesalahan Vektor (VECM), penelitian ini menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antara risiko geopolitik, ketegasan kebijakan lingkungan, dan modal manusia terhadap kualitas lingkungan. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa risiko geopolitik memiliki efek jangka pendek yang signifikan tetapi tidak berdampak …

The Impact Of The U.S.-China Tariff War On Trade And Investment In Developing Countries In Disrupted Global Value Chains, Teuku Riefky, Syahda Sabrina, Mohamad Dian Revindo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

As the world is more open and more integrated than ever, the trade war between the two largest economies, the United States (U.S.) and China, has significant and unexpected implications for multinational companies within global value chains. Since both markets are closed to each other due to the imposition of higher import tariffs, businesses have to shift their trade activities to alternative countries. Employing historical data, existing country-level data from the Global Trade Analysis Project on Value-Added (GTAP-VA), and tariffs imposed during the U.S.-China trade war, this study comprehensively examines the impacts of the trade war on global value chains, …

Pension Funds For Housing Development In Indonesia: Challenges And Strategies, Thomas Soseco, Anggari Marya Kresnowati, Ayu Dwidyah Rini

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Housing infrastructure is necessary to improve the quality of life of the community, yet a recent assessment of housing infrastructure development in Indonesia highlights a low level of performance. Therefore, actions are needed to stimulate it through pension funds, which remain minimally utilized for direct investment in the housing sector. This research investigates the potential and challenges of using pension funds for housing investment in Indonesia, employing Input Output (IO) Analysis with data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The findings reveal a significant gap between the potential and realized pension fund investments, indicating the substantial capacity of pension funds to be …

Non-Tariff Measures On Indonesian Tea Products: Do Sps And Tbt Impede Or Promote The Export?, Fikri Aldi Dwi Putro, Widyastutik Widyastutik, Nia Kurniawati Hidayat

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Previous studies highlight the heterogeneous effects of Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) on international trade. This study identifies the enforcement of NTMs and examines the effects on the export performance of Indonesian tea products. This study employed an inventory (coverage ratio) approach and panel regression with the Poisson-Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method. The results indicate that 31 out of 36 analyzed destination countries enforce NTMs, with Vietnam imposing the most prevalent ones. Furthermore, SPS measures substantially promote the export of Indonesian tea products, whereas TBT measures show no significant effect. Therefore, the government needs to provide incentives and harmonize the national Voluntary …

Total Factor Productivity Industri Mikro Dan Kecil Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia, Marella Dea Manganti, Budyanra Budyanra

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The Micro and Small Industries (MSIs) sector, part of non-oil and gas processing industry, is a key driver of the Indonesia’s economy. However, in Eastern Indonesia (EI), the number of industries and workers in the MSIs sector does not match the level of output, unlike in Western Indonesia, where the industry is more stable and aligned. This difference is mainly due to variations in technological progress, known as Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This study analyzes TFP in the MSIs sector across provinces in EI from 2013 to 2022 using panel data regression. Results show that South Sulawesi has the highest …

External Financing, Governance, And Infrastructure Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Afees Oluwashina Noah, Oladipo Olalekan David

CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires diversified financing strategies to address a significant funding shortfall that cannot be met by domestic resources alone. This research evaluates the contributions of external financing—namely Official Development Assistance (ODA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI)—in complementing domestic efforts to advance infrastructure in SSA. It examines their influence, alongside governance, on the development of physical and social infrastructure components. Employing methodologies such as Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) across 43 SSA economies from 2000 to 2022, the analysis reveals that FDI substantially enhances physical …

Revealing The Dual Dynamics: Transient And Persistent Efficiencies Of The Indonesian Provincial Economies, Mohammad Zeqi Yasin, Fichrie Fachrowi Adli

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

We examine the decomposition of technical efficiency components into transient and persistent horizons applied to the 33 provincial economies in Indonesia. Focusing on the post-decentralization era in 2002–2022, we employ Stochastic Frontier Analysis to gauge efficiency dynamics for time-variant and time-invariant evolution. We reveal that the persistent inefficiencies outweigh transient ones, implying the persistent inefficient behavior of Indonesian provinces. We also capture that East Nusa Tenggara and several provinces in Eastern Indonesia show the most lagged-behind in terms of persistent inefficiency severity, suggesting necessity of structural changes through more strategic and specific development models beyond mere heterogeneous input reallocation.

How Millennials Make Investment Decisions: Financial Literacy And Financial Behavior, Dewi Tamara, Anita Maharani

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigates the effect of financial literacy, financial attitude, risk perception, and financial behavior on investment decisions. Employing a survey method with 342 respondents in Jakarta, the findings reveal that financial literacy has a negative and insignificant effect on investment decisions. In contrast, risk perception plays a crucial role in influencing investment decisions. Furthermore, financial behavior has an indirect mediating effect between financial literacy and risk perception on investment decisions but does not affect financial attitude. This study concludes that risk perception and financial behavior are important factors in investment decisions. Future research may consider incorporating other variables such …

Could Renewable Energy Use Boost Goods Export Performance In Asean?, Sherina Rafidah Khairunnisa, Siskarossa Ika Oktora

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

ASEAN economic integration increases trade opportunities and also triggers an increase in carbon emissions, especially from exports of goods. ASEAN needs to switch to renewable energy to improve the performance of goods exports. This study analyzes the influence of renewable energy on goods exports in ASEAN, 2010–2020. The results show that renewable energy positively impacts the performance of goods exports. Based on the results of this research, it is hoped that the government in each ASEAN country can strengthen regulations and policies on the use of renewable energy by providing incentives for producers and exporters who use renewable energy.

How Can Monetary Policy And Digitalization Enhance Economic Productivity Among Oic Members?, Basri Basri, Muhammad Akbar Ramadhani

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menentukan dampak suku bunga, jumlah uang beredar, dan pengembangan TIK terhadap PDB per kapita dengan menggunakan pendekatan panel heterogen dinamis (panel ARDL) pooled mean group (PMG). Temuan kami menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter memainkan peran penting bagi pendapatan per kapita di seluruh negara OKI pada tingkat pendapatan yang berbeda. Bagi OKI secara keseluruhan, suku bunga memiliki dampak positif dalam jangka panjang tetapi tidak berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek. Bagi sebagian besar LMIC dan UMIC, kenaikan suku bunga cenderung meningkatkan pendapatan per kapita, sedangkan bagi sebagian besar negara LIC, hubungannya negatif. Jumlah uang beredar memiliki dampak negatif terhadap pendapatan …

A Comparative Study Of Indonesia And Malaysia's Economic Resilience In The Covid-19 Era: An Analysis Of Economic Stability, Muhammad Nur Abdul Latif Nur Latif Al Waroi

Jurnal Kajian Stratejik Ketahanan Nasional

This study analyzes the economic resilience of Indonesia and Malaysia during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on economic stability. The research explores pre-pandemic economic conditions, the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, inflation, unemployment, and government debt, as well as recovery efforts through fiscal and monetary policies. Data from Statistics Indonesia, Department of Statistics Malaysia, World Bank, and IMF were used. Results indicate that Indonesia experienced a faster economic recovery, with GDP growth returning to pre-pandemic levels quicker than Malaysia. The economic impact of the pandemic in Indonesia is lower, supported by the National Economic Recovery Program (PEN) and Bank Indonesia's monetary …

The Effect Of Crime On Tourism In Indonesia, Muhammad Farhan, Hera Susanti

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Tourism sector is widely known as one of economic sectors that can be the engine of economic growth in an effort to reduce poverty in a country. However, growth in the tourism sector can be influenced by safety factors. Tourists tend to avoid tourism destination areas with high crime rates in order to avoid becoming victims of crime. This study aims to analyze the effect of crime on the number of tourist arrivals in Indonesia by using four proxies of crime, which are total crime rate, property crime rate, violent crime rate, and fraud crime rate. This study utilizes a …

Belanja Pemerintah, Fdi, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pertumbuhan Industri, Dan Kemiskinan Di Indonesia, Isthafan Najmi, Cut Delsie Hasrina, Asmawati Asmawati, Rizal Ansari

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

In this new era of globalisation, all countries including Indonesia are targeting poverty alleviation to help people achieve welfare. Furthermore, this study empirically examines the impact of government spending, FDI, economic growth, and industrial growth on poverty. This research uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The data used is time series data from 1972 to 2021 obtained from the World Development Indicator website. The findings of the ARDL estimation show that government spending and industrial growth increase household income, both in the long-run and the short-run. In contrast, economic growth is negatively associated with poverty in both the short …

Determinan Implementasi Central Bank Digital Currency Di Indonesia, Kharisma Dwi Widodo, Bambang Juanda, Dedi Budiman Hakim

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Private digital currency is no longer limited to shadow banking issues but has also entered shadow central banking, putting Bank Indonesia to adopt the CBDC. This study aims to determine the effect of macroeconomic, accessibility, and demographic aspects on CBDC implementation, as well as the impact of publicity on changes in the behavior of economic actors in using CBDC in Indonesia. The results of the study show that GRDP, gini ratio, ICT, and bank accounts have an effect on CBDC. Publicity affects changes in the behavior of economic actors in increasing the conversion of fiat money to CBDC.

The Relationship Between Monetary Policy And The Stock Market Cycle: An Empirical Study In Vietnam, Nhung Thuy Tran

The Indonesian Capital Market Review

The study examines the relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle in Vietnam. Using data from 2007 to 2022 and employing a VAR model, we estimate the impact of monetary policy factors on stock market cycle variables. The findings confirm a two-way causal relationship between monetary policy and the stock market cycle. However, the influence of cyclical fluctuations on the monetary policy transmission mechanism is weak, exhibits a lag, and predominantly occurs in the medium and long term. These results indicate that Vietnam's monetary policy requires time to absorb financial shocks and adjust to economic conditions. The study …

Kartu Prakerja Program And Youth Employment: Gender-Specific Outcomes In Indonesia, Rizki Tri Anggara

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The Kartu Prakerja Program is a form of the active labor market policy in Indonesia, serving as a significant initiative to enhance competencies and job opportunities, including for vulnerable groups such as the young and female labor force. This study aims to analyze the program’s impact on youth employment, with a focus on gender differences. Using Propensity Score Matching (PSM), the results show a significant positive effect on employment probability, particularly for women. The findings suggest that skills training and financial incentives play a crucial role in enhancing employability. The study recommends expanding program access to vulnerable groups and continuously …

Identifying Risk-Taking Behavior And Prudent Asset Allocation In Pension Funds In Indonesia, Mohammad Alvin Prabowosunu, Reza Yamora Siregar, Rosi Melati, Devan Hadrian, Rizky Rizaldi Ronaldo

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This research aims to investigate asset allocation strategies in the pension fund industry in Indonesia in relation to liability profiles and risk-taking behavior. Utilizing data on market returns for each asset class and several financial indicators of pension funds, we applied the risk-taking behavior model proposed by Andonov & Rauh (2022) and a modified model to observe the Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) strategies of pension funds in Indonesia. We discovered that private defined contribution pension fund schemes (PPIP) tend to exhibit higher risk-taking behavior, primarily through investment allocation in equities. On the other hand, private defined benefit pension funds (PPMP) demonstrate …

The Effect Of Export-Related Measures On Indonesian Export Of Palm, Cpo, And Its Derivative Products, Edy Krismanto Sipayung, Christina Ruth Elisabeth

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study investigated the effect of Export-Related Measures (ERMs) imposed by the Government of Indonesia on the export volume and value of palm, Crude Palm Oil (CPO), and its derivatives products utilizing the export data of Indonesia to 194 destination countries in the 2011–2020 period. This study combined the dataset of ERMs from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) database and relevant Indonesian regulations. The results reveal that ERMs have a positive and significant effect on both the export volume and value of Indonesian palm, CPO, and its derivatives products. The price-raising effect or costs of ERMs …