Macroeconomics Commons^™

Credit, Sectoral Misallocation And Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis, Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza, Sangeeta Pratap

Carlos Urrutia

Real-Time Macroeconomic Forecasting With A Heteroskedastic Inversion Copula, Ruben Loaiza-Maya, Michael S. Smith

Michael Stanley Smith

Discretionary Policy And Multiple Equilibria In A New Keynesian Model, Volker Hahn

Volker Hahn

Asymmetric Forecast Densities For U.S. Macroeconomic Variables From A Gaussian Copula Model Of Cross-Sectional And Serial Dependence, Michael S. Smith, Shaun Vahey

Michael Stanley Smith

Bank Solvency And Economic Activity, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

This note explains why bank solvency is extremely important in a modern economy. Although banks provide many services including loans to business and households, these are secondary. Provision of the means of payment is primary. Every transaction in a modern economy involves a means of payment offered by the buyer and acceptable to the seller.

Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang Dr., Jiling Cao Prof.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in the monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase the complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.

Chaotic Behavior In Monetary Systems: Comparison Among Different Types Of Taylor Rule, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Wenjun Zhang, Jiling Cao

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward, and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and leads to more chaotic behavior.

Ii Keynes On Safe Assets, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Only the monetary authorities can create and issue safe assets. A safe asset is not offset by any liability so no private entity can issue it. The nominal value of a safe asset is fixed and it usually offers no nominal yield. The rationale for safe assets can be traced to the factors underlying the Keynesian liquidity trap. Since late 2008 the Fed has paid 0.25 percent on member bank reserves held in deposits at the Fed. This is part of the program known as ‘quantitative easing.’ It may have presented collapse of the U.S. banking system.

How Default Probability Affects Returns On Loans, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Even the simplest kind of default as an independent random event poses difficulties. The correct formulas for the nominal return on a default free loan and the revisions to apply for a loan that may default follow from 2 assumptions. 1. A good now is better than a good later because survival from now to later is not sure. 2. Private loans occur only if the probability of default does not exceed an upper bound set by the reciprocal of the nominal return on a default free loan. This upper bound makes sense if and only if the nominal interest …

Public Actors In Private Markets: Toward A Developmental Finance State, Robert Hockett, Saule Omarova

Saule T. Omarova

The recent financial crisis brought into sharp relief fundamental questions about the social function and purpose of the financial system, including its relation to the “real” economy. This Article argues that, to answer these questions, we must recapture a distinctively American view of the proper relations among state, financial market, and development. This programmatic vision – captured in what we call a “developmental finance state” – is based on three key propositions: (1) that economic and social development is not an “end-state” but a continuing national policy priority; (2) that the modalities of finance are the most potent means of …

How Low Interest Rates Impede Recovery, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

A super market and a bank in the money market treat their customers differently. A supermarket stands ready to sell to any customer any amount available of a commodity at a given price without regard to the customer’s credit standing. The credit standing of a potential borrower is paramount to a bank. Whether a bank offers a loan, its size if it does, and the interest rate it asks all depends on its assessment of the credit risk. Keeping interest rates low impedes lending and economic recovery.

Identification Of Key Productive Sectors In The Mexican Economy, Isaac Sánchez-Juárez, David Revilla, Adelaido García-Andrés

Isaac Sánchez-Juárez

This article focuses on identifying what are the key sectors with high potential for drag induced investment in the Mexican economy, also characterizes the sectors according to their hierarchy, impact and degree of articulation. To achieve this the input-output matrix national 2003 was used (disaggregated into 20 sectors and 79 sub-sectors), provided by the official government agency responsible for generating statistical information, which applied the traditional method of calculation of multipliers which takes into account both relations hierarchical such as circular between the productive sectors of Rasmussen (1956). The originality of the work lies in the application of the social …

Studying The Effects Of Non Oil Exports On Targeted Economic Growth In Iranian 5th Development Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach, Rasoul Bakhsi Dastjerdi Dr., Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Somayye Jafari

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

we investigate the effects of non oil export on Iran’s economic growth using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and study which tradable sectors has a larger share in reaching to targeted growth rate 8% in 5th socio economic development plan. We calibrate the model by GAMS (with emphasis on foreign trade sector). Numerical solution to the model is based on Iran’s social accounting matrix (SAM). Results show that 2.03% of targeted economic growth rate is achieved by encouraging a 6% growth in export. It also be mentioned that industry and mine sector in Iran, has more influence on growth than …

Cyclical Downturn Or Structural Disease? The Decline Of The Italian Economy In The Last Twenty Years, Enrico Saltari, Giuseppe Ciccarone

Enrico Saltari

Italy is experiencing at present the most serious economic recession of the post-war period. Between 2008 and 2013 national income fell by 9 per cent, per capita incomes by 11 per cent, and industrial production by 25 per cent; and unemployment doubled. In this essay we argue that, while this dramatic situation has been made worse by the policies of ‘expansive austerity’, its origins can be traced back to changes that took place in the 1990s (notably globalization, competition for emerging new markets and the diffusion of new technologies – ICT) to which Italy failed to react speedily or effectively …

Lessons From The U.S. Great Depression And The German Hyperinflation, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Abstract. The German hyperinflation and the U.S. Great Depression have in common the effects of an insufficient amount of useful media of exchange. In Germany too much currency was printed and in the U.S. widespread bank failures undermined confidence in all demand deposits so all bank checks were regarded suspiciously. The effects were the same in both countries, very high rates of unemployment coupled with collapse of their economies. The German Hyperinflation gives evidence against the Phillips Curve. JEL E65 Study of Particular Policy Episodes

Beliefs, Institutions, And Learning: A New Order For The New Global Economy?, Sumru G. Altug

SUMRU G ALTUG

No abstract provided.

Why Do Countries Adopt Fiscal Rules?, John Thornton, Yener Altunbas

John Thornton

This paper examines which economic, institutional and political charac- teristics of countries affect the likelihood that a numeral rule will be adopted as part of a fiscal strategy to limit the level of public debt. We estimate a panel binary response model over the period 1970–2012 for 110 countries, of which 58 opted to adopt such a rule. Our results suggest that the probability such a rule will be adopted is greater if a country has a high level of public debt, a relatively inflexible exchange rate regime, has already adopted inflation targeting, has deep credit markets and if other …

The Impact Of The Volatility Of Monetary Policy On A Small Economy: Some Evidence From New Zealand, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao, Wenjun Zhang

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks on a small economy using the GARCH-SVAR model. We enrich the SVAR model by using time-varying International and domestic volatilities as endogenous variables. The results show that although monetary policy shocks have transient effect on real economy (neutrality of money) the impact of the volatility of monetary policy shocks on real part of the economy is permanent and significant. Findings of variance decomposition also show that New Zealand heavily depends on international trade, so international monetary shocks can have a permanent impact on the local …

External Economies And Competitive Equilibrium, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In an article published in 1955, Murray Kemp analyzed the case for interference with the competitive allocation of resources when external economies of production are present. In the specific model we are interested in—where the costs of any one producer's operations are affected by the total output of all producers of the same product—Kemp attempted to show that where entry into the industry is closed (although the industry is otherwise perfectly competitive), "there can always be found a subsidy, either on the product or on a particular factor, which will be a sufficient incentive to firms to produce an optimal …

External Diseconomies In Competitive Supply: Comment, George A. Hay, John J. Mcgowan

George A. Hay

In a recent article in this Review, Charles Goetz and James Buchanan (G-B) assert that " . . . the standard description of misallocation in the presence of external production diseconomies is misleading . . . " because these externalities produce a ". . . combination of exchange-inefficiency with production-inefficiency [which ] renders the construction of correction devices much more difficult" (p. 889). Stated otherwise their contention is that with external diseconomies that are internal to an industry, i.e., those that each firm in an industry inflicts on other firms in the same industry, a competitive regime in the presence …

The Financial Crisis Impact On Potential Output In Iran, Fatemeh Almasi, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jalili Khodaparast Shirazi Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this study the quarterly data from 1996:1-2011:2 have been used to investigate the effect of financial crisis on potential output in Iran. For this purpose potential output, natural unemployment rate, spread between short-run and long-run interest rate and real money supply variables are used to estimate Auto Regressive Model and analyze Impulse-Response function and Variance Decomposition. The results show that financial crisis has a negative impact on potential output in Iran. Also, monetary shocks have negative impact on potential output in Iran. As regards, monetary policy has no effect on actual output in long-run, it seems that monetary policies …

The Impact Of Global And Domestic Volatility Of Monetary Policy: A Var-Garch Approach, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Jiling Cao Prof., Wenjun Zhang Dr.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In the past six decades a lot of research has been carried out to find the effect of monetary policy on real economy. But in the most of these articles, the effect of the volatility of monetary policy has been ignored. This paper investigates the impact of the international and domestic volatility of monetary policy shocks using the GARCH-VAR model. We enrich the VAR model by adding time-varying volatility as endogenous variables. We consider three different types of shocks: internal (domestic), regional and global. For our empirical evidence we use quarterly data of Australia and New Zealand from 1988:1 to …

The Long-Run Decline In Labor Share: Technology Versus Institutions, Mary O'Mahony, Michela Vecchi, Francesco Venturini

Francesco Venturini

We investigate the causes of the declining trend in labor shares using a large industry level data set and controlling for heterogeneity, non-stationarity and cross-sectional dependence. Our results show that in, the long run, technological changes and ICT capital are major sources of the decline. Conversely, knowledge capital increases labor shares, as well as more stringent regulations on intellectual property rights. Other market regulations do not play a significant role. Our results also show that hysteresis characterizes the dynamics of labor shares in all countries. This further supports the assumption that institutional differences do not cause labor share movements and …

On The Means Of Payment, Lester G. Telser

Lester G Telser

Economic Paradise: gold and free banking is the first topic. Paradise Lost: the Garden of Eden has a Serpent is the second topic. The third topic is Fiat Money and the Monetary Authority. It describes some banking reforms proposed by Henry Simons writing during the 1930’s when the U.S. economy was in the Great Depression. The main lesson relevant today is the danger inherent in linking the means of payment to credit. Restoring required reserves on all forms of deposit in banks as well as in firms that offer checkable accounts follows from Simons’ proposals. The fourth topic describes sources …

Subsidizing Non-Polluting Goods Vs. Taxing Polluting Goods For Pollution Reduction, Robert S. Main

Robert S. Main

Pigovian taxes on polluters are politically unpopular, but subsidies for non-polluting sources are politically attractive. This paper presents a linear demand and supply model and numerical example to explore the trade-offs between taxing polluting sources of a good versus subsidizing non-polluting sources of the same good. While the model (along with the associated numerical example) shows the optimality of Pigovian taxes, it also shows how much welfare is reduced if subsidies for nonpolluters are employed instead. Further, it shows the optimal tax, given any level of subsidy and the optimal subsidy, given any level of tax.

The Bedridden Queen Money!, John Samuel Cyrus Mr

John Samuel Cyrus Mr

During the past few decades, macro-economic activities had been rallied around glamorous industrial and technology oriented service sectors. Recent recession that began in 2008 is still continuing and the little improvement in 2009 was nothing but the fluctuation in the ICU monitor, which was connected to the bedridden queen Money. Many nations GDP growth rate has been continually falling and unemployment rates are continually rising. The American economy is in a complete mess, no remedies are found yet for European economic sovereign debt crisis, and the Asian economy fast fading due to India’s low GDP and the slide in Rupee; …

Monetary Integration And Optimum Currency Area In Asean+3: What We Need For A New Framework?, Reza Moosavi Mohseni Dr., Azali Mohammed Prof.

Reza Moosavi Mohseni

In this paper at first we investigate the viability of creating an optimum currency area (OCA) in the East Asia. The results of a ten-variable VAR model show that forming an OCA for all of the countries in the region is costly and difficult to sustain. But at first five countries called Japan, China, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippine with symmetric supply shocks can create the OCA. The findings also show that both dollar and yen can be suitable anchor for these countries, but with the exception of Indonesia all other countries are better potential clients of dollar. The final …

European Press Conference For The Launch Of The Un World Economic Situation And Prospects 2014, Robert C. Shelburne

Robert C. Shelburne

Press conference for the European launch of the United Nations' World Economic Prospects and Situation

Foreign Capital Flows And Economic Growth In Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis, Sharafat Ali

Sharafat Ali

Pakistan economy has received large inflows of foreign capital, in shape of foreign debt, FDI and worker’s remittances, over the years. The present study is focused on the examination of effects of these flows on economic growth in Pakistan. Johansen cointegration technique and Granger causality test has been used for the analysis for the sample period of 1972-2013. The results reveal negative impacts of these flows on economic growth of the economy in long run. Short run analysis confirmed unidirectional causality running from debt service, FDI, inflation and literacy rate to growth. Causality from domestic investment is not concluded but …

Chapter 2, Ghassan Dibeh

Ghassan Dibeh

No abstract provided.