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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
An Inquiry Concerning Japanese Yen Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun
WCBT Working Papers
This paper econometrically models Japanese yen (JPY)–denominated interest rate swap yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate exerts an influence on the long-term JPY swap yield after controlling for several key macroeconomic variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percentage change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the exchange rate. It also tests whether there are structural breaks in the dynamics of Japanese swap yields and related variables. The estimated econometric models show that the short-term interest rate exerts an important influence on the long-term swap yield in some periods but …
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.
Low Inflation: The Surprise Of The 1990s, Dean D. Croushore
Low Inflation: The Surprise Of The 1990s, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
For most of the 1990s, forecasters have been predicting an upturn in inflation. Yet, over that same period, the United States has experienced stable or declining inflation. Why have forecasts been at odds with reality? And why does it matter? In this article, Dean Croushore considers some answers to these questions and explains why inflation is the economic surprise of the decade.