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Full-Text Articles in Macroeconomics
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
How Do Forecasts Respond To Changes In Monetary Policy?, Laurence Ball, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
Just as changes in atmospheric conditions affect weather forecasts, changes in monetary policy affect economic forecasts. When monetary policy shifts, forecasters change their predictions about growth and inflation. But does the economy change to the same extent that forecasts do? In this article, Laurence Ball and Dean Croushore examine forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to determine if forecasts and the economy respond in tandem or if there are significant differences.
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
How Useful Are Forecasts Of Corporate Profits, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
If forecasters predict higher earnings for corporations, the stock market will rise. Stock prices will drop with a forecast of lower earnings. But are such forecasts on the money? Dean Croushore uses data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters to check the accuracy of forecasts of corporate profits. The results show that, despite the volatility of corporate profits, the forecasts are rational.
Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?, Dean D. Croushore
Inflation Forecasts: How Good Are They?, Dean D. Croushore
Economics Faculty Publications
Forecasts of inflation affect decision-making in many segments of the economy. But in the early 1980s, economists found that forecasts in surveys taken over the past 20 years systematically underpredicted inflation. As a result, many economists stopped paying attention to forecasts. However, they may have abandoned them too quickly. In this article, Dean Croushore takes a closer look at survey forecasts and, after considering some relevant factors, concludes that inflation forecasts may not be as bad as you think.