Labor Economics Commons^™

Benefits And Costs For Chattanooga Residents Of Incorporating Training Into Economic Development Strategies, Timothy J. Bartik, Iryna V. Lendel, Sevrin Williams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report evaluates the benefit-cost tradeoffs of adding a workforce training component to Chattanooga's economic development incentive packages, using the Bartik Benefit-Cost Model of Business Incentives. Focusing on hypothetical projects across seven industries, the analysis compares the present value of training costs against resulting gains in residents' per capita income over a 20-year horizon. Findings show that training, layered onto existing PILOT-based tax incentives, delivers benefits more than 25 times its costs—driven by training's greater cost-effectiveness in inducing business location decisions and its stronger tendency to direct new jobs toward local residents. While training is not self-financing from a city …

Michigan's Automotive Workforce Transition, Erik Vasilauskas, Michael Horrigan

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report examines how changes in automobile production, specifically the shift from internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles toward hybrids and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), are likely to affect employment in Michigan’s automotive manufacturing and distribution system over the next decade. The goal is to quantify how many jobs in Michigan depend on the automotive supply chain today, how that employment has evolved since the early 2000s, and how it may change through 2030 under alternative production-and-demand scenarios. The results are intended to inform the workforce planning and community transition strategies of the Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Opportunity’s Community and Worker Economic …

Workforce Dynamics In Michigan's Upper Peninsula: Trends, Shocks, And Projections Through 2030, Iryna V. Lendel

Presentations

Michigan’s Upper Peninsula is navigating a complex economic transition shaped by demographic change, workforce aging, and sectoral concentration. While the region has experienced long-term population decline, its labor force has remained stable due to rising participation among older workers. At the same time, the U.P.’s economy remains highly concentrated in extraction, construction, and production industries. These industries offer strong wages but are sensitive to economic cycles.

This presentation highlights key findings on workforce structure, industry specialization, and the region’s capacity to respond to potential shocks, including major employer closures. Evidence shows substantial skill overlap across industries, creating opportunities for worker …

Workforce Dynamics In Michigan’S Upper Peninsula: Trends, Shocks, And Projections Through 2030, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Sevrin Williams, Gerrit Anderson, Lee Adams

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report examines the economic and workforce dynamics of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula (U.P.) through 2030, highlighting the region’s ongoing transition during population decline, workforce aging, and structural labor shortages. Despite these pressures, the U.P.’s labor force remains relatively stable due to increased participation among older workers, partially offsetting declines in prime-age cohorts. The region’s economy is highly specialized, with strong concentrations in extraction, construction, and production industries—sectors that offer high wages but are vulnerable to cyclical economic downturns.

Using a combination of demographic analysis, occupational data, and industry projections, the study identifies significant skill overlap across key industries, suggesting potential …

Ai Exposure And The Future Of Work: Tasks, Skill Demand, And Education, Erik Vasilauskas, Michael Horrigan

External Papers and Reports

No abstract provided.

Understanding Michigan’S Reconnect Program Applicants, Alexander W. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Brian Jacob, Kevin M. Stange, Bryan A. Stuart, Zhonghan Xie

Reports

No abstract provided.

Berrien County Talent Ecosystem, Lee Adams, Val Klomparens

Reports

No abstract provided.

Ten Lessons In Public–Private Partnerships To Create Good Jobs, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

Ai Exposure And The Future Of Work: Linking Task-Based Measures To U.S. Occupational Employment Projections, Erik Vasilauskas, Michael Horrigan

Reports

No abstract provided.

Abundance Strategies Should Promote Abundant Jobs In Distressed Places, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

A prominent recent policy debate is about “abundance policies”: policies to make it easier to build housing or infrastructure, deliver government services more quickly and more efficiently, and expedite the public funding of the most innovative and socially impactful research. In this essay, I argue that abundance advocates often mistakenly ignore or have a negative attitude toward “place-based policies.” These place-based policies would seek to increase employment rates, particularly in good jobs, in two types of distressed places that lack abundant job opportunities: distressed local labor markets and distressed neighborhoods. Both the goals and means of place-based policies fit into …

Five Key Lessons For Five Core Groups Shaping Place-Based Policy, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

Introducing Slms: Spillover-Based Local Labor Markets, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Occupational Projections For Skilled Trades In Kalamazoo County, 2023-2032, Sevrin Williams, Michael Horrigan, Iryna V. Lendel

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

“Just Right” Definitions Of Local Labor Markets: Introducing Slms, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

“Just Right” Definitions Of Local Labor Markets: Introducing Slms, Timothy J. Bartik

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Local Labor Markets Should Be Redefined: New Definitions Based On Estimated Demand-Shock Spillovers, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

This paper provides estimates that lead to better U.S. labor market definitions. Current U.S. labor market definitions—for example, metropolitan areas and commuting zones—are unsatisfactory because they are ad hoc and usually do not correspond to commonly used local planning areas. This paper proposes basing U.S. labor market definitions on how a job shock to a county affects nearby counties’ employment rates. New estimates of county spillovers are presented. Using these estimated spillovers, new multicounty labor market definitions are based on maximizing a weighted sum of total spillovers captured, versus taking the average size of within-market effects. These new “spillover-defined local …

Training Needs And Costs In Kalamazoo's Core Neighborhoods, Timothy J. Bartik, Bridget Timmeney, Zachary Brown, Gerrit Anderson, Kathleen Bolter, Nicholas Martens, Brian Pittelko

Reports

This report estimates training needs in three Kalamazoo “core neighborhoods”: the Northside, Edison, and the Eastside. Using Census data, the analysis estimates the number of people potentially needing training in these neighborhoods as between 1,254 and 2,098 individuals. This report also estimates this training population’s characteristics, including: childcare needs, lack of a household vehicle, disability, felony records, substance abuse, mental illness. All these characteristics pose challenges for many hundreds in the training population. Based on a review of prior effective “sectoral training programs”, a training program may cost $7,300 per trainee, with over two-thirds of this cost due to various …

More Autonomy For Frontline Workers Supports Higher-Paying Jobs, Dylan Nelson, Nathan Wilmers, Letian Zhang

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Projecting The Demand For Workers In The Production Of Lithium-Ion Batteries In The United States, Erik Vasilauskas, Dakota Mccracken, Michael Horrigan

Reports

No abstract provided.

Work Organization And High-Paying Jobs, Dylan Nelson, Nathan Wilmers, Letian Zhang

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

High-paying factory jobs in the 1940s were an engine of egalitarian economic growth for a generation. Are there alternate forms of work organization that deliver similar benefits for frontline workers? Work organization varies by type of complexity and degree of employer control. Technical and tacit knowledge tasks receive higher pay for signaling or developing human capital. Higher-autonomy tasks elicit efficiency wages. To test these ideas, we match administrative earnings to task descriptions from job postings. We then compare earnings for workers hired into the same occupation and firm, but under different task allocations. When jobs raise task complexity and autonomy, …

Predictive Analytics Supporting Labor Market Success: A Career Explorer For Job Seekers And Workforce Professionals In Michigan, Christopher J. O'Leary, Salomon Orellana, Kevin Doyle, Randall W. Eberts, Ben Damerow, Amy Meyers, Kenneth J. Kline, Anna Wilcoxson, Beth C. Truesdale, Scott Powell

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Career Explorer provides customized career exploration tools for workforce development staff and job seekers in Michigan. There are separate Career Explorer modules for mediated staff services and self-service by job seekers. The system was developed by the Michigan Center for Data and Analytics in collaboration with the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research and Michigan Works! Southwest. It was funded by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Office of Workforce Investment and the Schmidt Futures foundation’s Data for the American Dream (D4AD) project. In this paper, we describe specifications of the models behind the frontline-staff-mediated version of Career Explorer, which are …

Scoring Soar, Timothy J. Bartik

Upjohn Institute Policy Papers

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of the incentive package provided to the proposed Ford battery plant in Marshall, Michigan. This project, announced in February 2023, involves a state and local business incentive package whose undiscounted value is $1.7 billion, and which is awarded to a plant that will eventually create 2,500 permanent jobs. The incentive package is analyzed using the Bartik Benefit-Cost Model of Incentives. The model’s estimates suggest that the incentive package has economic benefits whose present value is over 1.8 times the project’s incentive costs. Most of these benefits are higher earnings per capita for Michigan …

From Stimulus To Sustainability: Reckoning With Community Prosperity Post-Arpa, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Bridget Timmeney, Kyle Huisman, Alfonso Hernandez

Reports

No abstract provided.

Reemployment Services And Eligibility Assessments (Resea) In Maryland—Program Year 2020 Evaluation, Gabrielle Pepin, Christopher J. O'Leary, Kenneth J. Kline, Ting Zhang

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

Reemployment Services And Eligibility Assessments (Resea) In Maryland—Plan For Annual Assessments With Incremental Improvements, Christopher J. O'Leary, Gabrielle Pepin, Ting Zhang

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

No abstract provided.

How The Manufacturing Extension Partnership Can Anchor U.S. Workforce Development, Matthew D. Wilson, Nichola Lowe, Greg Schrock, Rumana Rabbani, Allison Forbes

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

How The Manufacturing Extension Partnership Can Anchor U.S. Workforce Development, Matthew D. Wilson, Nichola Lowe, Greg Schrock, Rumana Rabbani, Allison Forbes

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Getting The Workforce Into Good Jobs Requires Place-Based Policies, Timothy J. Bartik

Presentations

No abstract provided.

Aligning Kresa Efe/Cte Course Offerings With Local Business Needs: Results Of Two Studies, W.E. Upjohn Institute For Employment Research

Reports

No abstract provided.

Centering Work: Integration And Diffusion Of Workforce Development Within The U.S. Manufacturing Extension Network, Nichola Lowe, Greg Schrock, Matthew D. Wilson, Rumana Rabbani, Allison Forbes

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

As the U.S. economy rebounds from the COVID-19 pandemic, strategies that promote long-term transformation toward high-quality jobs will be critical. This includes workplace-improving interventions that enable employers to upgrade existing jobs, often while enhancing their own competitive position. This paper focuses on the Manufacturing Extension Partnership, a national network of federally funded centers that support small and medium-sized manufacturing firms. We document the range of workforce- and workplace-enhancing strategies that MEP centers have adopted since the network’s inception in the mid-1990s. While workforce development is unevenly implemented across today’s MEP network, leading centers within the network are devising transformative strategies …