Labor Economics Commons^™

Occupation Ladders Over The Business Cycle, Ismail Baydur, Toshihiko Mukoyama

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies occupational mobility over the business cycle. We divide occupations into two broad groups, “attractive” and “nonattractive”, where we label an occupation attractive if the total net inflow into this occupation through job-to-job transition is positive. We measure total net inflows into both occupation groups. We measure these inflows separately for job-to-job transitions and transitions from unemployment to employment. We find that the net inflow from nonattractive to attractive occupations through job-to-job transitions slows during recessions. The net inflow through transitions from unemployment has a similar cyclicality. This finding suggests a novel cost of recession: during recessions, workers …

The Unintended Consequences Of International Student Shortage: Evidence From South Korea, Chung-Yoon Choi, Syngjoo Choi, Seonghoon Kim, Jongkwan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the role of international students in the higher education sector and the local economy by exploiting a policy reform in South Korea that restricted the admission of foreign students to local universities. By comparing the pre- and post-reform differences across universities with different pre-reform shares of international student enrollment, we show that an international student shortage resulting from this policy reform significantly worsened the financial outcomes of universities and consequently led to reduced investment in their students. We also document that a reduction in the number of international students in local areas decreased native employment, mainly in low-skilled …

Navigating Unemployment Without Unemployment Insurance: Evidence From Singapore, Kim, Lanjie Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study investigates the short-term impacts of unemployment among older workers (aged 50–62) in Singapore, a setting with-out public unemployment insurance. Using monthly panel data from the Singapore Life Panel, we analyse dynamic effects onmajor life outcomes such as income, spending, health, and subjective wellbeing over 2 years post-unemployment. Our findingsreveal substantial initial earnings losses with incomplete recovery: income remains 50.7% below pre-unemployment levels after24 months. Despite this persistent income gap, total household expenditure declines by 9.8% on average over 2 years (rangingfrom 7% to 16% across months). The implied two-year marginal propensity to consume is about 0.182, smaller than …

Uncertainty, Information, And Major Choice: Evidence From Chinese Gaokao, Sikun Dou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

An unresolved background risk makes people more averse to other, independent  risks—most of all when a high-stakes, irreversible choice must be made under that risk. College major choice is such a setting. In China, students are admitted directly into a major they cannot easily change, and in the early 2000s they had to commit before learning their exam scores, bearing a field’s academic risk on top of an unresolved admission risk. Because STEM fields carry more academic risk and women are on average more risk-averse, this burden falls hardest on women’s entry into STEM. Exploiting a reform that moved application …

Smu Launches Resilient Workforces Institute To Strengthen Singapore’S Workforce In The Age Of Ai, Singapore Management University

SMU Press Releases and News

Singapore Management University (SMU) announced the launch of the Resilient Workforces Institute (ResWORK), a new university-level research institute advancing workforce resilience and lifelong learning amid accelerating technological change. It is among the first institutes in Singapore and the region to jointly study adult-learning and the future of work through an integrated, interdisciplinary lens spanning economics, management, behavioural science and technology.

The Impact Of A Vocational Training ‘Plus’ Programme On Employment And Income, Abu S. Shonchoy, Tomoki Fujii, Selim. Raihan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Following a Randomised Controlled Trial in Northern Bangladesh, this study explores the barriers to rural youth migration to urban employment hubs. By implementing a vocational training “plus” programme facilitating apparel sector employment, the study revealed significant and persistent effects of the programme on income and employment, primarily due to the addition of a stipend and on-the-job training components. Treated participants experienced significant income and remittance increases, alongside reduced income poverty, attributed to the lower job search costs and job–fit risks. Notably, the on-the-job paid apprenticeship offered a benefit–cost ratio of 8.85, demonstrating its cost-effectiveness for programme scalability.

Technifying Ventures, Yoshiki Ando, Emin Dinlersoz, Jeremy Greenwood, Ruben Piazzesi

Research Collection School Of Economics

How do advanced technology adoption and venture capital (VC) funding impact employment and growth? An analysis of data from the US Census Bureau suggests that while both advanced technology use and VC funding matter on their own for firm outcomes, their joint presence is most strongly correlated with higher employment levels. VC presence is linked with a high increase in employment, though primarily among a limited subset of firms. In contrast, technology adoption is associated with a smaller rise in employment, yet it influences a considerably larger number of firms. A model of startups is created, focusing on decisions to …

Do Government Benefit Programs Reduce Child Labor?: Causal Evidence From The Midday Meal Scheme In India, Vardaan Chawla, Tomoki Fujii, Arpita Khanna, Ray Rohan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study evaluates the impact of the midday meal program in India on the prevalence of child labor for upper primary school going children. The staggered implementation of the largest school feeding program in the world across states provides exogenous variation in exposure. Using the nationally representative National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) data, we find that exposure to the program reduced prevalence of child labor by 47 percent relative to children in never-treated states, with no significant difference in impact between boys and girls. The effects were primarily driven by a decline in household labor supply, especially performance of household …

Strategic Thinking Skills: A Key To Collective Economic Success, Syngjoo Choi, Seonghoon Kim, Wooyoung Lim

ROSA Journal Articles and Publications

We conduct a large-scale experiment to measure elementary aspects of strategic thinking skills and their linkage to labor market outcomes. Two incentivized measures of higher-order rationality and backward induction are developed. Males' (females') strategic thinking skills are positively (negatively) associated with individual labor income. However, among married individuals, strategic thinking skills are significantly and positively associated with their household labor income regardless of gender, highlighting the importance of strategic thinking skills for collective economic success. We argue that the intrahousehold channels encompassing collective labor supply with home-to-workplace spillover and marriage assortative matching offer the most plausible explanation for our findings.

Essays On Labor And Family Economics, Yutao Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises three chapters that investigate the trade-offs between the quantity and quality of children, as well as trade-offs between female labor supply and family formation.

The first chapter investigates how family size shapes child migration in China, where most rural families have at least two children, and nearly 50% of children have migrant parents. We propose a model showing that, conditional on family size, boys and girls are equally likely to migrate with parents to cities. However, in societies with strong son preference, daughters' migration may still be constrained as they tend to have more siblings, and larger …

Young Women In Cities: Urbanization And Gender-Biased Migration, Yumi Koh, Jing Li, Yifan Wu, Junjian Yi, Hanzhe Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Young women outnumber young men in cities in many countries during periods of economic growth and urbanization. This gender imbalance among young urbanites is more pronounced in larger cities. We use the gradual rollout of Special Economic Zones across China as a quasi-experiment to establish the causal impact of urbanization on gender-differentiated incentives to migrate. We highlight the role of the marriage market in increasing rural women’s chance of marrying and marrying up in urban areas during rapid urbanization.

The Gender Wage Gap In An Online Labor Market: The Cost Of Interruptions, Abi Adams, Kotaro Hara, Kristy Milland, Chris Callison-Burch

Research Collection School Of Computing and Information Systems

This paper analyses gender differences in working patterns and wages on Amazon Mechanical Turk, a popular online labour platform. Using information on 2 million tasks, we find no gender differences in task selection nor experience. Nonetheless, women earn 20% less per hour on average. Gender differences in working patterns are a significant driver of this wage gap. Women are more likely to interrupt their working time on the platform with consequences for their task completion speed. A follow-up survey shows that the gender differences in working patterns and hourly wages are concentrated amongst workers with children.

Social Institutions And Low Birth Rates, Christine Ho, Yutao Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We document three cross-sectional stylized facts on labor supply and family formation. First, female labor force participation (FLFP) and total fertility rates (TFRs) are much lower in Eastern societies compared to Western economies. Second, labor hours and the gender pay gap are much higher in the East than in the West. Third, parents invest more in schooling in Eastern societies compared to Western economies. To account for these features, we develop and estimate a rich heterogeneous-agent model with endogenous marriage, fertility, labor supply, and time and money investment in children. Estimates using data from South Korea and the United States …

Essays On Aging, Health, And Labor Market, Lanjie Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of four chapters on aging, health, and labor economics.

In the first chapter, we investigate the short-term impacts of unemployment on older workers in Singapore, a setting without public unemployment insurance. Using monthly panel data, we analyze dynamic impacts on income, spending, health, and subjective well-being over two years post-unemployment. We find substantial initial earnings losses with incomplete recovery, with income remaining 46.5% below pre-unemployment levels after 24 months. Despite this persistent income gap, consumption responses are modest and comparable to countries with strong social safety nets, suggesting robust self-insurance mechanisms. We observe increased retirement among married …

Tackling Misperceptions About Immigrants With Fact-Checking Interventions: A Randomized Survey Experiment, Syngjoo Choi, Chung-Yoon Choi, Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We conduct a randomized online survey experiment to study the impact of fact-checking offers and financial incentives on misperceptions about immigrants. We find that natives overestimate the number of immigrants and the social and economic costs of immigration. Offering a free check of the factual information about immigrants reduces these misperceptions; it becomes more effective when combined with financial incentives. However, more than half of the participants never took up offers to check factual information. Using a model of information search with limited attention, we identify the presence of non-negligible costs of information search and processing, which limits the effectiveness …

Young Women In Cities, Yumi Koh, Jing Li, Yifan Wu, Junjian Yi, Hanzhe Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Young women outnumber young men in cities in many countries during periods of economic growth and urbanization. This gender imbalance among young urbanites is more pronounced in larger cities. We use the gradual rollout of special economic zones across China as a quasi-experiment to establish the causes of this gender imbalance. Our analysis suggests that a key contributor is gender-differential incentives to migrate due to rural women’s higher likelihood of marrying and marrying up in cities when urbanization creates more economic opportunities and an abundance of high-income marriage-age men.

Investment And The Long Swings Of Unemployment, Hian Teck Hoon, Margarita Katsimi, Gylfi Zoega

Research Collection School Of Economics

We estimate the medium-term relationship between investment and unemployment over the period 1960–2017 in 20 OECD countries, a period that includes the years of the Great Recession. While neoclassical growth theory typically assumes full employment—with no effect of investment on unemployment—and New-Keynesian models assume that such a relationship only exists in the short term at business cycle frequencies, we find that over our sample period covering more than 5 decades, a statistically significant negative relationship does exist: in decades when investment fell, unemployment increased. Panel estimation, using a measure of stock market volatility as an instrument for investment, confirms the …

Dissertation On The Impacts Of Floods And Trade War On The Chinese Economy, Fan Zheng

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In the first chapter of the dissertation, we study the impact of floods on microlevel firm performances in China for the period 2000-2009. Among the first in the literature, we identify the flood exposure directly at the firm level by combining the high-resolution satellite-observed inundation areas with the geocoded firm locations. We find that being hit by a flood is associated with an annual loss to output and productivity of around 6% and 5%, respectively, which persists in the long run. The impacts of floods extend to non-inundated firms in neighborhoods (of 4 kilometres in radius), but the negative effects …

In A Gig Economy, Do People Work More When Wages Rise?, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Study finds that when wages go up, how the supply of labour changes can depend on how the change in pay is communicated

Labor Market Institutions And The Incidence Of Payroll Taxation, Jinyoung Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

Despite the unambiguous predictions of the canonical model of a competitive labor market, empirical studies of the labor market effects of payroll taxation provide conflicting evidence. We estimate the labor market impacts of payroll taxation in Singapore, the country with the most competitive and flexible labor market among the countries investigated in the literature. By exploiting the sharp reduction in payroll tax rate when workers turn 60, we find that the reduced payroll tax rate in Singapore has a large effect on wages without changes in employment. Our meta-analysis shows consistent evidence that varying degrees of labor market competitiveness across …

Rethinking The Role Of Employment Barriers In Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence From A Fixed Effects Analysis, Jian Qi Tan, Irene Y. H. Ng, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using a panel dataset from a five-wave survey of participants in Singapore’s Work Support Programme (WSP) from 2010 to 2016, we quantify the cumulative negative impact of facing multiple employment barriers and demonstrate the association between the individual stressors and labor market indicators. Using a fixed effects model to reduce the confounding effects of unobservables, we find that a one standard deviation increase in the number of employment barriers brings about a 2.7 to 3.5 percentage point increase in the probability of being unemployed and a 58 SGD to 78 SGD decrease in individual earnings.

The Impact Of Temperature On Labor Quality: Umpire Accuracy In Major League Baseball, Eric Fesselmeyer

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

Using data from Major League Baseball, I compute an objective measure of the home plate umpire's work quality-the accuracy of his ball and strike calls during a game-and measure how it varies with temperature. I find that an increase in game-time temperature from between 70 and 80 degrees F to above 95 degrees F decreases an umpire's accuracy by a little less than a percentage point, which is a 5.5% increase in the pitch-calling error rate when evaluated at the mean error rate of 13.3%. Restricting the sample to borderline pitches increases the magnitude of the hot-weather effect on accuracy …

The Impact Of Temperature On Labor Quality: Umpire Accuracy In Major League Baseball, Eric Fesselmeyer

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

Using data from Major League Baseball, I compute an objective measure of the home plate umpire's work quality-the accuracy of his ball and strike calls during a game-and measure how it varies with temperature. I find that an increase in game-time temperature from between 70 and 80 degrees F to above 95 degrees F decreases an umpire's accuracy by a little less than a percentage point, which is a 5.5% increase in the pitch-calling error rate when evaluated at the mean error rate of 13.3%. Restricting the sample to borderline pitches increases the magnitude of the hot-weather effect on accuracy …

Policy Impact Evaluations On Labour And Health, Junxing Chay

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters that evaluate the impacts of public policies on labour and health.

The first chapter studies a wage supplement scheme in Singapore, called the Workfare Income Supplement, which targets older low-income workers. I exploit differences in maximum benefits across age and over time to find that increasing benefits generosity encourages labour market participation and selfemployment. I also find improved life satisfaction and happiness among those with low education, who are likely to be eligible for the scheme. These results suggest that wage supplements can ease some burdens of an ageing population.

The second chapter investigates …

The Role Of Career And Wage Incentives In Labor Productivity: Evidence From A Two-Stage Field Experiment In Malawi, Hyuncheol Kim, Seonghoon Kim, Thomas Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study how career and wage incentives affect labor productivity through self-selection and incentive effect channels using a two-stage field experiment in Malawi. First, recent secondary school graduates were hired with either career or wage incentives. After employment, a half of workers with career incentives randomly received wage incentives, and a half of workers with wage incentives randomly received career incentives. Career incentives attract higher-performing workers than wage incentives, but do not increase productivity conditional on selection. Wage incentives increase productivity for those recruited through career incentives. Observable characteristics are limited in explaining selection effects of entry-level workers.

Wage-Vacancy Contracts And Multiplicity Of Equilibria In A Directed Search Model Of The Labor Market, Nicolas L. Jacquet, John Kennes, Serene Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies a directed search model of the labour market, which is standard in all aspects except two. First, we allow firms to post wage–vacancy contracts advertising the number of workers they would pay as well as the payment all will receive. Second, we consider two cases: one where workers are risk neutral and one where workers are risk averse, both in finite and large economies. Our paper shows that when firms post wage–vacancy contracts, whether workers are modelled as risk neutral or risk averse matters: the types of symmetric equilibria and the nature of multiplicity of equilibria are …

Regional Prevalence Of Health Worker Absenteeism In Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Absenteeism of health workers in developing countries is common and can severely undermine the reliability of the health system. Therefore, it is important to understand where the prevalence of absenteeism is high. We develop a simple imputation method that combines a Service Delivery Indicators survey and a Service Provision Assessment survey to estimate the prevalence of absenteeism of health workers at the level of regions in Tanzania. The resulting estimates allow one to identify the regions in which the prevalence of absenteeism is significantly higher or lower than the national average and help policymakers determine priority areas for intervention.

Labour Research Conference 2018: Upskilling Of Mature Workers, Stephen Hoskins, Luca Facchinello

Research Collection School Of Economics

Many developed countries are approaching an era of ageing population due to an increase in longevity and decrease in fertility rates. Singapore is no exception, having one of the fastest ageing populations in Asia, which is driven by low fertility rates and the third longest life expectancy in the world. The number of elderly citizens, defined as those aged 65 and above, is expected to triple to 900,000 by 2030, making up about 28% of the total population in Singapore (Population SG, 2016). This changing population age profile, combined with a competitive labour market, means it makes business sense to …

Regional Prevalence Of Health Worker Absenteeism In Tanzania, Tomoki Fujii

Research Collection School Of Economics

Absenteeism of health workers in developing countries is common and can severely undermine the reliability of health system. Therefore, it is important to understand where the prevalence of absenteeism is high. We develop a simple imputation method that combines a Service Delivery Indicators survey and a Service Provision Assessment survey to estimate the prevalence of absenteeism of health workers at the level of regions in Tanzania. The resulting estimates allow one to identify the regions in which the prevalence of absenteeism is significantly higher or lower than the national average and help policymakers determine the priority areas for intervention.

The Heterogeneous Effects Of The Minimum Wage On Employment Across States, Wuyi Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the relationship between the minimum wage and the employment rate in the US using the framework of a panel structure model. The approach allows the minimum wage, along with some other controls, to have heterogeneous effects on employment across states which are classified into a group structure. The effects on employment are the same within each group but differ across different groups. The number of groups and the group membership of each state are both unknown a priori. The approach employs the C-Lasso technique, a recently developed classification method that consistently estimates group structure and leads to …