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**Human Capital Migration And International Trade: A Comparative Case Study Of Germany And Austria, 2000 To 2024**, Jahnvi Jha

2025 Fall Honors Capstones Projects - Archive

This study examines migration of people and international trade in Germany and Austria between 2000 and 2024. Both countries saw sharp rises in immigrant populations, with foreign-born residents reaching 18 percent in Germany and 22 percent in Austria, while their exports grew to record levels. The research explores whether human capital migration like workers bringing skills, education, and networks has complemented or substituted trade. Evidence shows migration often reduces barriers to commerce by creating trust, demand for home-country goods, and professional connections. Skilled workers in high-tech industries further boost export capacity. Contrary to fears that migrants might weaken competitiveness, the …

How Are Global Trade Relationships Affected By Western Sanctions?, Colin A. Martinez

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Do sanctions actually have an impact on their intended targets? This paper seeks to fill a gap in the existing literature on the effectiveness of sanctions by measuring potential impacts on the trade relationships of targeted states after the imposition of sanctions. To do so, it turns to a comprehensive dataset that combines all trade and sanctions data for each of 229 states, arranged in 23,132 dyads, from 2000 through 2019. It then examines 792 regressions using a hybrid fixed effects difference-in-difference model applied to twelve different types of sanctions, differentiated by the sanctioning state’s membership in certain groups of …

Essays On Trade Policy, Ward Reesman

All Dissertations

This dissertation consists of two essays on international trade and trade policy, focusing on a quantitative evaluation of the causes and consequences of trade barriers and economic integration. In the first essay, I examine the role of a widely-used discriminatory trade barrier in shaping dynamic trade patterns of exporters across a range of affected and unaffected export markets. In the next chapter, I explore the heterogeneous economic determinants impacting the formation of economic integration agreements among countries, paying specific attention to the role of bilateral migration flows.

The first chapter estimates the dynamic trade effects of temporary trade barriers (TTBs), …

The Long And Short-Run Spatial Impacts Of Trade, Lin Ma, Yunlong Song, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We explore how the spatial impacts of trade evolve over time using a dynamic spatial model that incorporates capital accumulation and skill acquisition. We show that in the short run, the spatial impacts of trade mainly depend on the initial conditions, especially the endowments of physical and human capital across locations. However, in the long run, trade shocks shape the distribution of production factors across space through factor accumulation and migration, resulting in significantly different spatial impacts. In the context of China’s WTO accession, we find that international trade is seven times more effective in driving the population towards coastal …

An Economic Analysis Of The United Kingdom Given The Possible Effects Of Overthrowing The Northern Ireland Protocol, Joshua P. Brink

Honors Thesis

This research paper examines the current conflict between the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU) regarding the Northern Ireland Protocol negotiation. This negotiation was created following the UK’s decision to leave the EU in an event known as Brexit. The conflict has occurred because many Brexiteers in the UK want to override parts of the Protocol since it is a burden for the UK’s economy. The EU, however, has threatened to retaliate since this would be breaking the agreement between these two parties. Furthermore, this paper attempts to evaluate the conflict as a whole, examining all perspectives of …

The Effect Of The China Shock On The 2016 And 2020 Us Presidential Elections, Yike Zhou

Economics Honors Projects

Trade liberalization in 2000 opened up the door for increased trade between China and the US, favoring Chinese manufacturers. This period is often referred to as the "China shock" (Autor, 2013). This paper utilizes data collected from the MIT election lab, FRED, and David Dorn's published data to investigate the effect of the China import shock in the early 2000s on the most recent two US presidential elections. Our analysis, which employs commuting zone-level data, reveals that regions more adversely affected by the China shock were more likely to vote for the Republican Party, while regions that suffered less harm …

Corruption And Assortative Matching Of Partners In International Trade, Arusha Cooray, Chandan Kumar Jha, Bibhudutta Panda

Economics & Management Publications

Although the effects of corruption on bilateral trade are well-documented, its impact on the composition of trading partners remains unexplored. In this paper, we argue that corruption in a country imposes asymmetric costs on its trading partners depending on their characteristics. Consequently, as the level of corruption in a country changes, its trade flows from some of its trading partners change more than others, depending on their characteristics, changing the composition of its trading partners. We focus on two characteristics of trading partners: (1) the level of corruption and (2) membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Convention …

Exchange Rate Forecast Model: Factor Analysis, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

Forecasting the exchange rate using factor analysis, factors based on cross section exchange rates of different economies in terms of trade, would beat random walk model in longer out of sample horizon forecasting. In this research project, we will replicate the NBER working paper Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates” by Charles Engel, Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West (2012) which has used 17 OECD countries exchange rates in getting the potential factors but with extended time period from 1973:1-2021:4. We will report early sample forecasting statistics for a 1987-1998 sample. Results for late samples (1999-2022) were promising, at …

Tapping On Growth Opportunities Through Trade And Investment, Andy Feng, Gerald Foong, Geraldine Lim

Research Collection School Of Economics

As a small and open economy, external developments play a crucial role in shaping Singapore’s growth prospects. In particular, external demand is pivotal in supporting the growth of Singapore’s gross domestic product (GDP) beyond the limits afforded by a small domestic market. Furthermore, due to the resource constraints faced by Singapore, its production of goods and services to meet both external and domestic demand requires a substantial use of imported inputs. Apart from trade, Singapore’s openness and outward-orientation also extend to its embrace of inward and outward investments to grow its economy and create jobs for Singaporeans. In view of …

Improving Existing Methods For Calculating Embodied Carbon Emissions In Trade Through Feature Discovery: An Information Theoretic Approach, Sam Morton

Dartmouth College Undergraduate Theses

The continued societal and ecological risks posed by climate change have spurred renewed interest in quantitative tools that can improve policy aimed at climate mitigation. In 2008, international trade accounted for up to 26\% of global anthropogenic emissions, and therefore trade has garnered increased attention from policymakers seeking carbon mitigation. The concept of embodied carbon emissions in trade (EET) quantifies overall carbon emitted in the production and transport of goods for the purposes of trade. EET in theory could prove an indispensable tool to climate-concerned policymakers, but current implementations and data availability limit EET calculation to annual snapshots that extend …

Export Promotion As A Development Strategy: Evidence From Selected Southeast Asian Countries And Lessons For Ghana, Ohenewaa B. Newman

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Developing countries have adopted various development strategies such as import substitution industrialization (ISI) and export promotion strategies. For Latin-American and developing countries, some level of economic growth was experienced using ISI after the Second World War. However, these countries could not attain the needed economic growth, technological advancement or guarantee food security with the adoption of ISI. It led to unequal income distribution, less internal competition, and distortions of their economy, among others. The rise of export promotion strategies in the 1970s was evidenced by an impressive economic growth and a decline in poverty in jurisdictions like Taiwan, Tanzania and …

The Feasibility Of Containerization In The Great Lakes St. Lawrence Seaway System, Nick Edwards

Political Science Theses and Capstones

The use of waterways to transport goods has always been a staple of civilization dating back to some of our earliest days. And throughout history it has always played a pivotal role in our economies and affected the very way in which our civilizations developed. Perhaps one of the world's most important waterways is the Great Lakes that lie directly in the heart of the North American continent and connect the heartland of North America to the Atlantic Ocean. Thus, providing a vital mode of transportation for shipping a variety of products from North America’s heartland to the rest of …

Three Essays On International Economics: Global Value Chains Of Singapore And The Cptpp; The Effects Of Oil Price Shocks On Trade, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation discusses two questions in international economics. The first two chapters focus on the matter of global value chains. We first explore the participation of Singapore in the global value chains by characterizing the position of Singapore in the global network and identifying Singapore’s key upstream and downstream trade partners. This is done at both the country aggregate and at the sector level. We trace how the country’s position in global value chains has changed in the past two decades: whether it has moved upstream or downstream, how involved it is in global value chains, how its trend compares …

Three Essays On International Trade Policies, Xin Yi

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation studies the empirical and quantitative implications of trade policies. The first chapter examines the effects of trade policies on quality specialization across cities within a country. Specifically, we complement the quality specialization literature in international trade and study how larger cities within a country produce goods with higher quality. We first establish three stylized facts on how product quality is related to agglomeration, firm productivity, and worker skills. We then rationalize these facts in a spatial equilibrium model where all the elements mentioned above are present and firms are free to choose their locations. Using firm-level data from …

Chinese Economic Development And Its Global Implications, Robert T. Hill

Honors Undergraduate Theses

While Chinese economic development is often at the forefront of conversations by scholars shaping economic policy, further investigation into the state of China's economy has left a gap in research. Through analyzing the 13th Five Year Plan (FYP) and looking specifically at the effect it will have on unemployment, international trade, overcapacity rates, and the Belt and Road Initiative, the goal of this research is to understand if China will be able to obtain sustained economic growth. In order to achieve this, this research employs a qualitative discourse analysis, focusing on pre-existing works that discuss Chinese economic development. It will …

A Two-Round In-Class Trading Game On The Principle Of Comparative Advantage And The Theory Of Reciprocal Demand, Bei Hong

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper outlines a classroom trading game that explores equilibrium terms of trade using the principle of comparative advantage and theory of reciprocal demand. Students are divided into eight groups. Each group is assigned a country with hypothetical productivity and each country seeks its trading partner based on comparative advantage. Students simulate the trading of goods between countries with the objective of achieving the best possible terms of trade. The game encourages students to reflect on their learning of the principle of comparative advantage, consider improvements in trade terms through negotiation, and summarize the conditions for mutually beneficial terms of …

Impact Of Cooperative Membership On Members' Household Economies: The Case Of Chiapas Coffee Farmers, Stephen Pitts

Master's Theses

Coffee producers typically sell raw coffee beans as the first step in a global value chain. Recently, groups of producers have formed coffee cooperatives that attempt to regain market power by integrating the other steps of the value chain. This study uses matching to estimate the effect of membership in one such cooperative on the household economy of indigenous coffee producers in the state of Chiapas, Mexico. It contributes to the literature by considering new determinants of participation and outcomes of interest. First, social capital at the individual and village level is correlated with cooperative membership more than other demographic …

Ex-Dividend Price Behavior In Spanish Speaking Markets: Do Stocks Behave Differently In Spain, Mexico, And Chile?, Kayla E. Nikosey

Honors Projects in Finance

The main focus of this thesis is to analyze the behavior of stock price on ex-dividend day of ADRs in Spain, Mexico, and Chile. Announcement date, and ex-dividend date for each ADR is collected to be analyzed against the other ADRs. One would expect different behaviors in the different markets because of different tax treatments in Chile, Mexico, and Spain. Traditional event testing is being used to analyze the stock price behavior on and around ex-dividend days. The event test measures the impact of regulatory events and allows for abnormal changes in stock prices that occur in conjunction with dividend …

Global Economic Expansion And The Prevalence Of Militarized Interstate Disputes, Lucas Hahn

Honors Projects in Economics

Over the past several decades the entire world has experienced both the positive and negative effects of globalization. The question that this report will address is whether or not global economic expansion has led to a decline in the prevalence of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) and what factors influence the prevalence of MIDs. This report will take an in-depth look at Thomas Friedman’s “Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention”. It also includes a quantitative analysis in which regression techniques were used to see how different economic factors influence the prevalence of MIDs, while also introducing a previously unused independent variable …

International Trade In Telecommunication Services: A Cross Sectional Gravity Regression, Justin C. Doty

Undergraduate Economic Review

The gravity model has been successful in measuring the effects of institutions, trade barriers, and other characteristics on trade in goods. Kimura and Lee [2004] find the gravity model is also suitable for measuring trade in services. The Organization for Economic Co-Development [2009a] develop gravity models for pilot service sectors such as construction, computer, professional, and telecommunication services. The purpose of this paper is to extend the findings of the OECD paper for telecommunication services. The paper finds that a 10 percent increase in distance between countries will decrease imports by 11.77 percent. Imports of telecommunication services are influenced by …

Unemployment And Economic Integration For Developing Countries, Haiwen Zhou

Economics Faculty Publications

While financial or trade integration between countries may increase the size of the market and aid the adoption of more advanced technologies, will it also increase the level of urban unemployment for a developing country? In this model, there is unemployment in the urban sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose increasing returns technologies to maximize profits. Financial firms provide capital to manufacturing firms and they also engage in oligopolistic competition. We show that an increase in the wage rate in the manufacturing sector changes neither the level of technology nor the level of employment in the manufacturing …

Can Neoclassical Trade Theory Explain Congressional Voting?, John Dellipriscoli

Master's Theses

The neoclassical trade model has notoriously been unable to empirically predict trade flows throughout the world, however there has been a notion that the same theories and predictions could also be applied to democratic voting on free trade legislation. Using roll-call votes on three 2011 United States bilateral trade agreements with Colombia, Panama, and South Korea, respectively, a simple empirical model based on the neoclassical concepts, specifically the Heckscher-Ohlin and Stolper-Samuelson corollary theorems, is outlined. After an analysis using a logit estimation method, it is revealed that there is conflicting evidence whether the voting on the 2011 free trade agreements …

The Cost Of Culture The Impact Of National Culture On The Pass-Through Of Commodity Shocks, Christine Gerrity

Honors Projects in Finance

This study analyzes the impact of national culture on the pass-through of commodity price shocks to retail goods. In particular, this study explores the commodities of coffee, cotton and steel. Through the use of regression analysis, this study looks to determine the relationship between two key predictive variables: risk tolerance of a country and commodity shocks within a company’s associated commodity market, and their impact on the value of companies within that country. Additional factors are explored at the firm financial level and the firm country level. The purpose of this study is to examine if consumers of one country …

Essays On International Trade And Finance, Amat Adarov

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The dissertation consists of three papers exploring the macroeconomic implications of heterogeneity of countries in financial development, economic interconnectedness via trade and financial linkages.

Chapter 1 examines whether countries which are more centrally located in the global trade network have more synchronized stock markets. Global trade data is used to construct a novel measure of random walk betweenness centrality (RWBC), measuring the extent to which a country lies on random pathways in-between other countries and is therefore likely to be a conduit in the transmission of a shock across global markets. Based on a panel dataset of 58 countries over …

Off The Cliff And Back? Credit Conditions And International Trade During The Global Financial Crisis, Davin Chor, Manova Kalina

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine the collapse of international trade flows during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis using detailed data on the evolution of monthly U.S. imports over the November 2006 - April 2009 period. We show that credit constraints and the reduction in the availability of external capital were an important channel through which the crisis affected trade volumes. We identify the effects of credit tightening by exploiting the variation in the cost of capital across countries and over time, as well as the variation in financial dependence across sectors. We find that countries with higher interbank interest rates and thus tighter …

International Business Environment Analysis, Sana Khalil

Business Review

This paper presents business environment analysis on the basis of cultural and economic differences. It elucidates the potential conflicts, risks and discusses the business opportunities that lie amid this whirlpool. The cultural differences are analyzed using Hofstede's dimensions and subsequent implications are discussed. It elucidates that the socio-economic differences require the managers to use their discretion while developing business strategies or goods and services for different markets. Since BRICS nations are emerging as potential business markets for firms around the globe and have attracted much attention and debate, I have chosen to present a comparative analysis using BRICS countries and …

Dragon Versus Eagle: The Chinese Economy And U.S.-China Relations, Wei-Chiao Huang Editor, Huizhong Zhou Editor

Upjohn Press

This book contains a group of papers that examine the complex and evolving economic relationship between China and the United States.

Regional Trade Agreements And The Pattern Of Trade: A Networks Approach, Rossitza Wooster, Javier A. Reyes, Stuart Shirell

Systems Science Friday Noon Seminar Series

This paper uses a complex network approach for the analysis of bilateral trade data between countries over the period 1970-2000. We compute the network community structure for every year between 1970 and 2000 and compare it to null community structures that emerge from various models based on regional and geographic classifications, the implementation of RTA's and/or on gravity models of trade. Our results show that RTA formation appears to have a cyclical pattern on the world trade network community structure. We document periods where bilateral trade flows and the structure of the world trade network are consistent with those predicted …

Do Foreign Direct Investment And Trade Openness Accelerate Economic Growth?, Donna Chan Wah Hak

Honors Projects in Economics

This research investigates the impact of trade openness and foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth. Using a framework proposed by Barro (1991), panel data regression analysis is performed on 5-year time periods between 1985 and 2005. A sample of 89 countries is analyzed using data collected from the World Development Indicators (WDI), Penn World Table, Barro and Lee (2010), and Polity IV Project datasets. The empirical analysis shows that conditional convergence occurs among the countries in the sample and that FDI net inflows per worker slightly increases the speed of conditional convergence. This study also finds evidence that FDI …

Trade And Investment In The Philippines, Hazel C. Parcon-Santos

Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies (AKI)

Developing countries such as the Philippines relies heavily on trade and foreign direct investment (FDI), consequently leading to economic integration, which in its entireity, determines the country’s economic condition. As such, we believe that there is a need to further study the impact of these external variables on the competitiveness and efficiency of the Philippine economy.