International Economics Commons^™

A Simulation Assessment Of The 'Law Of One Price', Caleb Wilkins

Computational and Data Sciences (MS) Theses

The ‘law of one price’ is an appealing notion regarding pricing of tradeable commodities that are priced in different currencies. It states that the prices of the same good in different markets should be equal after adjustment for exchange rates and that equality should persist through exchange rate fluctuations.

My research simulates the market conditions that should precipitate the ‘law of one price.’ Data was obtained from the simulated trade between algorithmic artificial intelligence agents that operated under induced boundedly rational market behaviors. Trade took place in two initially separate markets, a high-price market with a higher equilibrium price and …

Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase …

Financial Crises, Bailouts And Monetary Policy In Open Economies, Yang Jiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

I jointly study the optimal bailout policy and monetary policy in open economies that borrow in foreign currency from international lenders. A policy dilemma emerges during financial crises. Policymakers trade off the benefit of more bailouts alleviating firms’ financial constraints against the cost of larger currency devaluation, which tightens firms’ financial constraints. I embed the optimal bailout in an otherwise standard “sudden stop” model with nominal rigidities. The model sheds light on the role of bailouts and currency mismatch in driving the exchange rate dynamics, firms’ balance sheets and economic recovery. Quantitatively, the model matches key business cycle moments. A …

Us Financial Expansions And Exchange Rate Determination, Matthew Brill

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this thesis is to explore how US financial activity influences the exchange rates of foreign nations. Starting off by building on Currency Hierarchy and Minskyan dynamics, I look at how financial cycles generated in the US, the key economy, transmit liquidity towards economies on the periphery. Additionally, I use the increase in shadow banking asset accumulation relative to commercial banking asset accumulation as indicative of financial expansions in the US, and the driving force of financial cycles. Using vector autoregression (VAR) analysis I test the relationships between the ratio of US shadow banking assets relative to commercial …

Exchange Rate Forecast Model: Factor Analysis, Swapnil Landge

Publications and Research

Forecasting the exchange rate using factor analysis, factors based on cross section exchange rates of different economies in terms of trade, would beat random walk model in longer out of sample horizon forecasting. In this research project, we will replicate the NBER working paper Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates” by Charles Engel, Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West (2012) which has used 17 OECD countries exchange rates in getting the potential factors but with extended time period from 1973:1-2021:4. We will report early sample forecasting statistics for a 1987-1998 sample. Results for late samples (1999-2022) were promising, at …

Relationship Between Volatility In Domestic Oil Production, Oil Price And Exchange Rate In Nigeria: Co-Integration And Granger Causality Tests, Bashir Umar Faruk

Bullion

The paper examines the relationship between volatility in domestic oil production, oil prices, and exchange rate in Nigeria. The study employs monthly time series data, from January 2006 to August 2018. Data for the Nigerian Bonny light oil prices (COP), Domestic Oil Production (DOP) and Exchange Rate (EXC) are obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. While, dummy variable (DUM) represents stability and instability in the Niger-Delta oil-rich region was traced from historic oil disruptions in the region. Autoregres s i ve Di s tributed Lag (ARDL)/bound testing method and pairwise granger causality were employed. Unit root test …

Exchange Rate Regimes And Economic Growth, Amandarae Matthew

Undergraduate Theses

This paper explores the relationship between economic growth and exchange rate regimes among countries of lower income, lower middle income, upper middle income, and high-income countries. Countries must make careful consideration when choosing an exchange rate regime because each regime can have different long-term effects. A cross section pooled time series data will be used for a sample of 42 countries over the period of 2000-2018. Multiple models will examine the various relationships between types of exchange rate regimes, changes in exchange rate regimes, and economic growth. The components of the models being tested include political stability, change in terms …

Three Essays On Financial Constraints And Foreign Direct Investment, Todd Sarnstrom Ii

Dissertations

This three–essay dissertation makes contributions to the literature on foreign direct investment (FDI) and its relationship with collateral and the exchange rate. FDI refers to an investment made by a firm to establish or acquire a long–lasting interest in another firm operating outside its home country. Often, FDI involves substantial fixed costs that require the investing firm to seek external financing. Collateral has been identified as an important factor in the external financing of FDI. Firms lacking collateral are constrained in their ability obtain external financing. Exchange rates have also been identified as a factor in FDI. Exchange rate movements …

An Analysis Of The Appreciation Of The Chinese Currency And Influences On China's Economy, Lina Ma

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

In recent years, China's economy development has had more and more impact on the global economy. The Chinese currency continued to appreciate since 2005, which has had both positive and negative results on Chinese's economy. The Chinese government uses the monetary policy to control the inflation pressure, which could work counter to Chinese exchange rate policy. RMB appreciation also has some effects on the Chinese banking system. Through the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), a global computable general equilibrium model, we analyze how, when there is RMB appreciation, the Chinese exports and imports, and Chinese employment and income inequality react. …

Proliferation Of Tail Risks And Policy Responses In The Eu Financial Markets, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study draws attention to the proliferation of tail risks in financial markets prior to and during the course of the recent global financial crisis. It examines the level of tail risks in selected equity, interbank lending and foreign exchange markets in selected EU Member States in relation to the United States. The extent of tail risks is assessed by applying general error distribution (GED) parameterization in GARCH volatility tests of the examined variables. The empirical tests prove that tail risks were pronounced across all of the examined European financial markets throughout the crisis. They were also significant prior to …

Relative Inflation-Forecast As Monetary Policy Target For Convergence To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

A monetary policy framework based on targeting a relative inflation-forecast is proposed for the economies converging to the euro. Such strategy aims at containing the differentials between the domestic and the implicit monetary union inflation-forecasts. Hence, these differentials become a basis for setting an operational policy target. The proposed framework can be viewed as an extension of flexible inflation targeting that prioritizes low and stable inflation over the exchange rate stability. It is believed to be consistent with the Maastricht convergence criteria and can be implemented in concurrence with the exchange rate stability benchmark for the ERM2. Several empirical tests …

Exchange Rate Changes And Trade Balance: An Empirical Study Of The Case Of Japan, Ziwei Shao

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balance between Japan and the US. Differing from conventional elasticities approach, one more variable--the net foreign assets--is added in the Vector Autoregression estimation using quarterly data from 1980: I to 2006: IV. The Johansen and Juselius result indicates three long-run relationships among five macro variables: trade balance, domestic income, foreign income, net foreign assets and real exchange rate. Short run adjustment parameters are identified as coefficients of the error correction terms. The variance in trade balance due to variations in the two macro variables--the exchange rate …

Why Is China So Competitive? Measuring And Explaining China's Competitiveness, F. Gerard Adams, Byron Gangnes, Yochanan Shachmurove

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates factors responsible for the competitiveness of China in the world economy and relative to its East Asian rivals. China has been highly successful in capturing world export markets. Chinese competitiveness is not just a matter of an undervalued exchange and extremely low labor costs. It reflects primarily the coincidence of favorable cost conditions with improvements in China’s ability to produce products that meet world market specifications. These improvements are closely related to foreign participation in China’s economy through foreign direct investment and joint venture enterprises.

The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Interest Rates In Post-Crisis Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

In post-crisis Asia, all crisis-hit countries (except Malaysia) announced a shift from exchange rate based monetary policy framework to the explicit adoption of inflation targeting that uses interest rates as the key monetary policy operating instrument. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, and investigate how the dynamics between them have changed following the crisis. This is carried out by constructing a bivariate VAR-GARCH model for each of the four Asian crisis countries, namely Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand. The findings suggest these countries do not use interest rate policy more actively to …

The Exchange Rate Mechanism And The Ruble Devaluation Of 1998, Philip Porter

University Avenue Undergraduate Journal of Economics

I will first examine what I see as the common sense fundamentals of the exchange rate mechanism, noting as I go, the relationship with the current Russian crisis. In my examination, I will take the simplest approach, assuming free trade, unrestricted capital movements and negligible transaction costs. Concluding, I will delve into the quagmire of the Russian situation.

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from documents like balance sheets and financial statements, which are designed for legal and administrative purposes rather than economic analysis. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without major reclassifications or rearrangements. However, due to problems with imprecise definitions, improper classification, inadequate sectorization, inaccuracies, irregular valuation procedures, and errors in data compilation, major revisions were made. The Computer Services Department generates summary and detailed analytical balance sheets based on the end-month BANKOS 302 of the CBN, Lagos branch. The consolidation of accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks produces monetary survey accounts. …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin June 1997, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from financial statements and balance sheets, which are designed to meet legal and administrative requirements rather than economic analysis needs. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department to compile the CBN analytical accounts. However, major revisions were made due to imprecise definitions, improper classification, inadequate sectorization, inaccuracies, irregular valuation procedures, and errors in data compilation on foreign assets. The Computer Services Department uses high-level computing to generate both summary and detailed analytical balance sheets based on the end-month BANKOS 302 of the CBN, Lagos branch. The consolidation …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1996, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from documents like balance sheets and financial statements to meet legal and administrative requirements, rather than economic analysis. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, while the Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet. Monetary authorities and deposit money banks consolidate accounts to produce monetary survey accounts. Monthly interest rate returns compute weighted average lending and deposit interest rates, and deposit rates are computed for various maturities. Clearing house statistics show the number and value of cheques cleared within the commercial banking system, reflecting the …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1996, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from documents like balance sheets and financial statements, which are primarily designed for legal and administrative purposes. The Finance and Accounts Department uses Bloomberg sources to prepare CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department to compile analytical accounts. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without reclassifications or rearrangements of available accounting data. The consolidation of accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks produces monetary survey accounts. Monthly interest rate returns are used to compute weighted average lending and deposit interest rates. Deposit rates are computed for various maturities. Clearing …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1995, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, which are primarily designed for legal and administrative purposes rather than economic analysis. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, using the monthly return of Assets and Liabilities and the summary trial balance as benchmarks. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without major reclassifications or rearrangements. The consolidation of accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks produces monetary survey accounts. Deposit money banks are highly prone to volatility and fragility, making them subject to regulations and …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1995, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from balance sheets and financial statistics, which are designed for various logistical and administrative requirements rather than economic analysis. Final data compilation involves aggregating the financial system's accounts to discern macroeconomic tendencies. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, using the monthly return of Assets and Liabilities (BANKOS 324) as a benchmark and the summary trial balance (BANKOS 302) as a source for detailed information. The Financial Statistics Office consolidates the accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks, producing monetary survey accounts. Deposit money banks are …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1994, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

Financial data is compiled from various documents, such as balance sheets and financial statements, to meet legal and administrative requirements rather than economic analysis needs. The Finance and Accounts Department prepares the CBN accounting balance sheet data for the Research Department, using the monthly return of Assets and Liabilities and the summary trial balance as benchmarks. The Financial Statistics Office compiles the analytical CBN balance sheet without major reclassifications or rearrangements. Monetary survey accounts are produced by consolidating accounts of monetary authorities and deposit money banks. Monthly interest rate returns are used to compute weighted average lending and deposit interest …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1992., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1992, Nigeria's economy faced significant pressures but showed resilience, with rapid growth in output and economic liquidity. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intensified efforts to achieve inflation and exchange rate stability while improving the efficiency of the financial sector. The financial sector experienced rapid growth and structural changes, with the strongest growth occurring in common unity banking and mortgage finance institutions. Monetary and credit aggregates expanded at unprecedented rates, matching the all-time highs of the oil boom era of the mid-seventies. Interest rates rose significantly, with both deposit and lending rates rising in tandem with the movements of …