International Economics Commons^™

Chinese Yuan Interest Rate Swap Yields, Tanweer Akram, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper models the dynamics of Chinese yuan–denominated long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate exerts a decisive influence on the long-term swap yield after controlling for various macrofinancial variables, such as core inflation, the growth of industrial production, the percent change in the equity price index, and the percentage change in the Chinese yuan exchange rate. The autoregressive distributed lag approach is applied to model the dynamics of the long-term swap yield. The findings reinforce and extend John Maynard Keynes’s conjecture that in advanced countries, as well as emerging market economies such as China, …

Monetary Policy And Systemic Risk-Taking In The Euro Area Banking Sector, Alain Kabundi, Francisco Nadal-De Simone

WCBT Faculty Publications

Available empirical evidence on the significance of the (micro) risk-taking channel of monetary policy is not enough to indicate a threat to financial stability. Evidence of risk-taking with systemic risk implications is necessary. Statistical measures that capture systemic risk in all its forms within a structural factor-augmented vector autoregressive model suggest that conventional and unconventional monetary policies have resulted in systemic risk-taking in the euro area banking sector. Systemic risk has taken the form of an increase in the banking sector’s vulnerability via contagion and interconnectedness. Banks’ balance sheets, however, do not account for the full transmission from (micro) risk …

Does The Legal System Affect The Cost Of External Financing? Evidence From Ipo Underpricing Of Foreign Firms Listed In U.S. Stock Markets, Shaokang Wang, Jing Jiang

WCBT Faculty Publications

To study the effect of the legal system on the cost of external financing, we examine the degree of underpricing of the IPOs by foreign companies listed in U.S. We find that firms from highly corrupted countries have larger IPO underpricing. The quality of the home-country public law enforcement reduces the degree of IPO underpricing. In particular, the criminal sanction for violations of securities laws is the most significant factor in reducing underpricing. The evidence shows that even when a non-U.S. firm meets sophisticated U.S. regulations and goes public in a U.S. exchange, the degree of underpricing is still influenced …

Integration Of Central And Eastern European And The Euro-Area Financial Markets: Repercussions From The Global Financial Crisis, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Anna Tsibulina

WCBT Faculty Publications

We examine integration of financial markets and banking sectors in Central and Eastern Europe and the euro area. We study co-movements between government bond and equity markets of Germany and those of Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, as well as Slovenia and Slovakia (the two recent euro members). We assume that financial integration is essential for subsequent monetary convergence, as it will enable the euro candidates to mitigate systemic risk and avert potentially destabilizing shocks. Government bond yields of the Czech Republic and Poland show high correlation with German yields, in contrast to those of the remaining countries. Equity returns of …

Introduction To The Symposium On 'Financial Risks And Economic Stability In Emerging Market Economies', Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

Developing resilience to contagion effects from global financial crises and economic recessions has been an ongoing crucial task for policymakers in emerging market economies. The recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has underscored the importance of pursuing disciplined macroeconomic policies and of devising sound macroprudential regulations that would strengthen the immunity of emerging markets and their institutions to various types of risks, including credit, default, sovereign, liquidity and market risks. The studies included in this symposium are not intended to provide a comprehensive overview of financial vulnerabilities in a broad spectrum of emerging markets. Rather, they share a common aim …

Extreme Risks In Financial Markets And Monetary Policies Of The Euro-Candidates, Hubert Gabrisch, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study investigates extreme tail risks in financial markets of the euro-candidate countries and their implications for monetary policies. Our empirical tests show the prevalence of extreme risks in the conditional volatility series of selected financial variables, that is, interbank rates, equity market indexes and exchange rates. We argue that excessive instability of key target and instrument variables should be mitigated by monetary policies. Central banks in these countries will be well-advised to use both standard and unorthodox (discretionary) tools of monetary policy while steering their economies out of the financial crisis and through the euro-convergence process.

Workers' Migration And Remittances In Bangladesh, Khawaja Mamun, Hiranya K. Nath

WCBT Faculty Publications

Bangladesh has sent more than 6.7 million workers to over 140 countries during a period of more than three decades since the mid-1970s. Most of these workers temporarily migrated to work in Middle East and Southeast Asia. This mass movement of temporary migrant workers has, to some extent, eased unemployment pressures on the over-burdened labor market in this highly populated country. More importantly, the remittance transfers received from these migrant workers have reached a phenomenal level of over 10 billion US dollars in 2009, approximately 12 percent of GDP in Bangladesh. This paper analyzes the trends and various other aspects …

Proliferation Of Tail Risks And Policy Responses In The Eu Financial Markets, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study draws attention to the proliferation of tail risks in financial markets prior to and during the course of the recent global financial crisis. It examines the level of tail risks in selected equity, interbank lending and foreign exchange markets in selected EU Member States in relation to the United States. The extent of tail risks is assessed by applying general error distribution (GED) parameterization in GARCH volatility tests of the examined variables. The empirical tests prove that tail risks were pronounced across all of the examined European financial markets throughout the crisis. They were also significant prior to …

The Impact Of Terrorism On Business, Michael D. Larobina, Richard L. Pate

WCBT Faculty Publications

Terrorism has in one form or another been a part of society throughout history. Since the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York, the world community has been more focused on terrorism than ever before in most recent modern history. Terrorism has impacted multiple levels of society across the world community. One of those levels is the business environment. A specific aim of terrorism is to disrupt and destroy ongoing businesses. Therefore, the ability of governments to disrupt and destroy terrorism is essential to the continued growth and expansion of the world economy. Terrorism will directly impact a country's ability …

Relative Inflation-Forecast As Monetary Policy Target For Convergence To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

A monetary policy framework based on targeting a relative inflation-forecast is proposed for the economies converging to the euro. Such strategy aims at containing the differentials between the domestic and the implicit monetary union inflation-forecasts. Hence, these differentials become a basis for setting an operational policy target. The proposed framework can be viewed as an extension of flexible inflation targeting that prioritizes low and stable inflation over the exchange rate stability. It is believed to be consistent with the Maastricht convergence criteria and can be implemented in concurrence with the exchange rate stability benchmark for the ERM2. Several empirical tests …

Stages Of The Ongoing Global Financial Crisis: Is There A Wandering Asset Bubble?, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study argues that the severity of the current global financial crisis is strongly influenced by changeable allocations of the global savings. This process is named a “wandering asset bubble”. Since its original outbreak induced by the demise of the subprime mortgage market and the mortgage-backed securities in the U.S., this crisis has reverberated across other credit areas, structured financial products and global financial institutions. Four distinctive stages of the crisis are identified: the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market, spillovers into broader credit market, the liquidity crisis epitomized by the fallout of Bear Sterns with some contagion effects on …

Institutional Issues Impeding Progress Of The Free Trade Area Of The Americas Agreement (Ftaa), Sivakumar Venkataramany, Balbir B. Bhasin

WCBT Faculty Publications

For any bilateral or multilateral trade agreement to be effective, it is imperative that all participants derive maximum benefit. This paper examines the institutional issues facing the partners of the Free Trade of the Area of the Americas (FTAA), analyzes some of the current areas of conflict and suggests action to reduce tensions and promote harmony, cooperation and accommodation which is a necessity when multiple countries attempt to foster such an agreement.

American Index Put Options Early Exercise Premium Estimation, Ako Doffou

WCBT Faculty Publications

"This paper examines empirically the value of early exercise by testing the ability of two American put valuation models to predict the early exercise premium for the S&P 100 American put options. An accuracy test and a quality test are performed on (1) the MacMillan (1986) & Barone-Adesi and Whaley (1987) model, and (2) the Carr, Jarrow and Myneni(1992) model. The test results show that early exercise premium is significant regardless of moneyness. Moreover, consistent with the theory, the value of early exercise is significantly negatively related to moneyness and interest rates and significantly positively related to time to maturity …

Monetary Policy And Inflation In The European Monetary Union – Perspectives And Lessons, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

The paper examines systemic changes in monetary policies in Europe that have played a pivotal role in containing inflation. It emphasizes the connection between the systemic evolution of monetary policies and the precepts of the original as well as the new generation policy models prescribed by the ‘Washington Consensus’. It further underscores the importance of key criteria of optimum currency area (labor mobility, trade openness, symmetric consumer preferences and political integration) for viability and further future enlargement of the euro area. For the candidates to the euro flexible inflation targeting policies that encompass the euro-convergence parameters are suggested.

Reflections On A Seminal Force In International Accounting, Karen Cascini

WCBT Faculty Publications

Accounting is a manifestation of several important environmental factors within a country, including economic, educational and political, and, as such, is evolutionary in accordance with those changing social structures. In today‟s ever expanding global economy, the understanding of international aspects of accounting is critical to understanding world events and the way in which they affect our lives. As new nations and new economic powers emerge, continually updated information, including accounting information, is an essential resource for linking an internal accounting system with worldwide systems. Because of the major impact that international accounting has had on countries‟ internal accounting systems, it …

Monetary And Fiscal Policy In Poland During The Eu Accession, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

The main objective of this chapter is to review the fiscal and monetary policies of Poland for EU accession and to extract their guiding precepts. Only the most essential aspects of fiscal and monetary convergence are examined, with some attention to institutional convergence. An in-depth analysis of institutional convergence falls beyond the boundaries of this study, as its main focus is on the systemic foundations of macroeconomic stabilization policies during the economic transition and in the course of preparations for EU accession. The chapter also examines policy options for the post-accession macroeconomic policy strategy which will focus on preparations for …

Periodically Collapsing Bubbles In The Asian Emerging Stock Markets, Ako Doffou

WCBT Faculty Publications

This paper investigates empirically the existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in the Asian emerging stock markets using the Enders-Siklos (2001) momentum threshold autoregressive model. As explained in Bohl (2003), this non-linear time series technique can be used to analyze bubble driven run-ups in stock prices followed by a crash in a non- cointegration framework with asymmetric adjustment. This technique offers a more potent insight in the stock prices behavior than can possibly be obtained using conventional non-cointegration tests. The empirical findings for ten Asian emerging stock markets from 1993 to 2005 refute the bubble hypothesis.

Bond Yield Compression In The Countries Converging To The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Kirsten Lommatzsch

WCBT Faculty Publications

We demonstrate that bond yield compression is under way in the countries converging to the euro and that German yields are significant drivers of local currency yields. Based on the evidence from Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, we conclude that these new ...Member States of the European Union are ready to adopt the euro without risking a disruptive shock to their financial stability. This message transpires from investigating the daily volatility dynamics of local bond yields as a function of German yields, conditional on changes in local term spreads, exchange rates and adjustments to central bank reference rates. Similar …

Export-Led Growth In Bangladesh: A Time Series Analysis, Hiranya K. Nath, Khawaja Mamun

WCBT Faculty Publications

This article examines time series evidence to investigate the link between exports and economic growth in Bangladesh. Using quarterly data for a period from 1976 to 2003 the article finds that industrial production and exports are cointegrated. The results of an error correction model (ECM) suggest that there is a long-run unidirectional causality from exports to growth in Bangladesh.

Targeting Relative Inflation Forecast As Monetary Policy Framework For Adopting The Euro, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study proposes relative inflation forecast targeting as an operational framework of monetary policy for adopting the euro by the EU new Member States. This strategy assumes containing differentials between the domestic and the eurozone inflation forecasts as an operational target. A model prescribing the RIFT framework is presented along with a set of appropriate policy indicator variables and instrument rules. The proposed framework advances the strategy based on relatively strict inflation targeting that is currently pursued by some NMS. Several ARCHclass tests in various functional forms are employed for providing preliminary empirical evidence on convergence of inflation differentials relative …

The Relationship Between Import Prices And Inflation In The United States, Thomas D. Corrigan

WCBT Faculty Publications

Inflation has been a non-issue in the United States in recent years despite strong economic growth, on balance, and falling unemployment. Some analysts believe that "new economy" dynamics are responsible for this favorable outcome and further claim that the traditional Phillips curve tradeoff between growth and inflation is no longer a valid assumption underlying economic policy decisions. Others believe that the Phillips curve is indeed alive and well but that favorable "supply shocks" have masked the still relevant tradeoff between growth and price stability. One potential "supply shock" candidate is a declining trend in the cost of imports into the …

Feasibility And Timing Of The Euro Adoption By The New Eu Member States, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

The 10 new member states are now facing the challenge of framing and implementing policies for adopting the euro. They are all bound by the EU Treaty to replace their national currencies with the euro at some future time as they were admitted to the Union with a derogation to this effect. In order to prepare adequately for entry to the euro area, the candidates need to undergo fiscal and monetary convergence. In principle, they should refrain from lax fiscal policies that could skew the eurozone policy mix by forcing the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten monetary policy. They …

The Relevance Of Inflation And Exchange Rate Risk For Monetary Convergence To The Eurozone, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study places a strong emphasis on the ability of Central European Countries to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums on their path of monetary convergence to the eurozone. A model of the nexus between both risk premiums is presented along with the recent evidence supporting well-coordinated interactions between these risk premiums for Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The analysis implies that monetary policies based on direct inflation targeting are likely to contain these risk premiums in the candidate countries and can be effectively used during the remaining period of their preparations for entering the euro area.

Monetary Convergence And Risk Premiums In The Eu Accession Countries, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH …

Monetary-Policy Targeting In The Central European Transition Economies, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This chapter examines the monetary-policy-targeting systems, in the second half of the 1990s (until 1998), of three Central European EU-accession candidates—the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland--and advocates the potential benefits of applying a direct-inflation-targeting (DIT) system in them. For the purpose of the analysis presented here, DIT is defined as "a monetary policy framework that is based on the assumption of long-term price stability as the official policy goal and on the designation of the official inflation forecast as intermediate policy target" (Orlowski, 2000). Section 1 is a brief overview of monetary-targeting practices in the Czech Republic Hungary, and Poland. …

Japanese Capitalism In Crisis: A Regulationist Interpretation (Book Review), Ramzi N. Frangul

WCBT Faculty Publications

Book review by Ramzi N. Frangul.

Boyer, R., & Yamada, T. (Eds.). (2000). Japanese capitalism in crisis: A regulationist interpretation. Routledge.

ISBN 9780415205597

A Dynamic Approach To Inflation Targeting In Transition Economies, Lucjan T. Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

This study views inflation targeting as a viable monetary regime for more advanced transition economies. A dynamic approach to the trajectory of disinflation and to the flexibility of direct inflation targeting is presented in the context of achieving monetary convergence to the EU/AMU. The candidate countries are advised to begin from strict inflation targeting and to follow with a more flexible inflation targeting regime before they establish a necessary ‘foundational credibility’ and monetary stability. These steps, ultimately followed by a euro-peg, are necessary in preparing for accession to the eurozone. The early experiences of the Czech Republic and Poland with …

Volatility Of Central Europe Exchange Rates: Reaction To Financial Contagion, And Policy Recommendations For European Union Accession, Lucjan T. Orlowski, Thomas D. Corrigan

WCBT Faculty Publications

Examines the volatility of the exchange rates in Central Europe. Role of capital account liberalization and financial market integration in exchange rate stability; Remedies employed to financial problems of each countries; Impact of Asian and Russian financial crises on currencies of Central European countries; Recommendations for European Union accession.

Exchange-Rate Policies In Central Europe And Monetary Union, Lucjan Orlowski

WCBT Faculty Publications

Looks at the relationship between exchange-rate and monetary policies in transition economies (TEs) in central Europe bent on becoming part of the European Union. Review of practiced targets of monetary policy in response to the requirements of monetary union; Question of whether or not candidates will resort to a final currency devaluation; Suggestions for adjustments in short- and long-term monetary policy.