International Economics Commons^™

Discussion Of Do The Biggest Aisles Serve Brighter Future? Implications Of Global Retail Chains' Presence For Romania, Davin Chor, Beata Javor, Li Xue

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

How Does Vietnam's Accession To The World Trade Organization Change The Spatial Incidence Of Poverty?, Tomoki Fujii, David Roland-Holst

Research Collection School Of Economics

Trade liberalization is good for growth, and growth is good for the poor. This argument is simple but powerful. It has served as the departure point for discussion of the link between trade and poverty among economists and policy-makers, regardless of whether and to what extent they buy this argument. Krueger (1998) considers the inefficiencies that import substitution strategy creates and argues that trade liberalization undertaken at a period of low or negative growth rates can normally lead to a period of higher growth rates. Bhagwati and Srinivasan (2002) emphasize the empirical evidence of China and India. That is, these …

Education And Trade, Pao Li Chang, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines the inherent link between a countryís education system and its comparative advantage in trade. It suggests that di§erences in education systems across countries are probably a stable equilibrium result that is compatible with and reinforced by trade patterns. In equilibrium, two distinct types of countries emerge, one that exports creativity-intensive products and has an education system encouraging diversity (as illustrated by the US), and the other one that exports high-quality manufactured products and has an education system promoting homogeneity in student quality (as illustrated by Japan). Our Öndings present a novel explanation for the coexistence of low …

Discussion Of Balistreri, Hillberry, And Rutherford (2007): Structural Estimation And Solution Of International Trade Models With Heterogeneous Firms, Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

No abstract provided.

Modeling Country Risks: An Asian Perspective, Swee Liang Tan, G. K. Randolph Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper investigates the use of the Markov Regime Switching Model (MRSM) as a means to track changes in the levels of investor confidence. It also assesses the probabilities of a country switching between different regimes using the transition probability matrix. A maximum of three possible levels or regimes of risk – low, intermediate and high volatility regimes, is considered. From the smoothed probabilities calculated for different regimes, this paper makes inferences about timings of debt crisis. Comparing Brazil, Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia in particular, we date the onset and subsequent dissolution of crisis-induced panic. We give interpretations of …

The Wto Trade Effect, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

Rose (2004) showed that the WTO or its predecessor, the GATT, did not promote trade, based on conventional econometric analysis of gravity-type equations of trade. We argue that conclusions regarding the GATT/WTO trade effect based on gravity-type equations are arbitrary and subject to parametric misspecifications. We propose using nonparametric matching methods to estimate the 'treatment effect' of GATT/WTO membership, and permutation-based inferential procedures for assessing statistical significance of the estimated effects. A sensitivity analysis following Rosenbaum (2002) is then used to evaluate the sensitivity of our estimation results to potential selection biases. Contrary to Rose (2004), we find the effect …

Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a general empirical framework to estimate the protection-for-sale model, where the protection regime shifts according to a sector's market structure (perfectly or monop-olistically competitive). We base the protection structure on Grossman and Helpman (1994) for the subset of perfectly competitive sectors and on Chang (2005) for the subset of monop- olistically competitive sectors. The two protection regimes are simultaneously estimated with joint constraints. The results of the J-test consistently reject the homogeneous (perfect compe- tition) protection-for-sale model often adopted in previous literature and suggest a direction of improvement toward the proposed heterogeneous protection structure model.

A Welfare Analysis Of Capital Account Liberalization, Jürgen Von Hagen, Haiping Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a model of a small open economy with credit market frictions to analyze the consequences of capital account liberalization. We show that nancial opening facilitates the in ows of cheap foreign funds and improves production e ciency. Reforms increasing labor market exibility can further improve such e ciency gains. However, capital account liberalization also has important distributional consequences. Speci cally, it may be impossible to use public transfers to fully compensate the loss of those negatively a ected by capital account liberalization. This explains why nancial opening often meets erce opposition even though it leads to e ciency …

The Evolution And Utilization Of The Gatt/Wto Dispute Settlement Mechanism, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a theoretical framework of dispute settlement to explain the surge in blocking incidence of GATT panel reports during the 1980s and the variations in withdrawn incidence versus total disputes across different decades of the GATT regime. The study first suggests the role of the degree of legal controversy over a panel ruling in determining countries' incentives to block (appeal) a panel report under the GATT (WTO) regime. The study then analyzes the effects of political power on countries' incentives to use, and their interactions in using, the dispute settlement mechanism, when two-sided asymmetric information exists regarding panel …

Trade Agreements With Domestic Policies As Disguised Protection, Gea Myoung Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

WTO rules prohibit “disguised protection” in the form of domestic policies. How then do governments cooperate over trade and domestic policies when none can verify whether a nation's domestic tax reduction is a protective measure or a reaction to a production externality? In this paper, each government privately observes whether a production externality associated with its import-competing good is high or low. This paper finds that in an optimal agreement, disguised protection with domestic policies is never used by governments with a high externality, and is never commonly realized. Moreover, in an optimal agreement, tariffs may be conditional on domestic …

Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition: An Empirical Investigation, Pao Li Chang, Myoung-Jae Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a general empirical framework to estimate the protection-for-sale model, where the protection regime shifts according to a sector's market structure (perfectly or monopolistically competitive). We base the protection structure on Grossman and Helpman (1994) for the subset of perfectly competitive sectors and on Chang (2005) for the subset of monopolistically competitive sectors. The two protection regimes are simultaneously estimated with joint constraints. The results of the J-test consistently reject the homogeneous (perfect competition) protection-for-sale model often adopted in previous literature and suggest a direction of improvement toward the proposed heterogeneous protection structure model.

Green Revolutions And Miracle Economies: Agricultural Innovation, Trade And Growth, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

The purpose of this paper is to develop a simple model of an economy in which growth is driven by a combination of exogenous technical change in agriculture and a rising world demand for labor-intensive manufactured exports. We explore the relative roles of an exogenous agricultural productivity shock and rising export demand in a model with two traded industrial goods and a non-traded agricultural good, food. When the non-traded sector uses a specific factor, we show that technical change in agriculture may be the key to factor migration into industry, in particular driving intersectoral labor migration. A key assumption is …

China's Changing Economic Structures And Its Implications For Regional Patterns Of Trade Production And Integration, Kim Song Tan, Hoe Ee Khor

Research Collection School Of Economics

There is tremendous momentum for economic and financial integration in East Asia today. Partly inspired by the formation of the European Union and partly as a response to the 1997/98 Asia financial crisis, many East Asian countries are showing greater commitment to regional economic cooperation. A number of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have either been concluded or are being negotiated.1 At a less formal level, the ASEAN+3 grouping has brought the whole region together in regular consultations over trade, investment, as well as monetary and exchange rate policy matters.

Institutions, Wages, And Inequality: The Case Of Europe And Its Periphery (1500-1899), Davin Chor

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper explores the long-run relationship between institutions and wage outcomes in Europe and its periphery. I find that cities that exercised stronger institutional protection of private property experienced: (i) higher levels of both skilled and unskilled real wages, as well as (ii) lower levels of inequality as measured by the skilled-unskilled wage ratio. While the first result corroborates existing work on the positive growth effects of better institutions, the second finding is more novel to the literature. Some explanations are proposed for how stronger institutions can cause an increase in the relative supply of skilled workers, thus lowering wage …

Trade, Growth And Increasing Returns To Infrastructure: The Role Of The Sophisticated Monopolist, Ashok S. Guha, Brishti Guha

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a model of international trade with increasing returns in a non-traded input into industry, infrastructure, and show that the nature of equilibrium depends crucially on whether the infrastructure provider acts in a naïve manner – akin to a Level 1 agent in a cognitive hierarchy (C-H) model – or in a more sophisticated manner. Infrastructure requires a fixed investment and is produced under decreasing marginal costs, and we model two possible market forms, monopoly and Cournot oligopoly with free entry – both capable of generating pecuniary externalities in the manufacturing sector . Unlike most other work exploring the …

Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition, Pao Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a general empirical framework to estimate the protection-for-sale model, where the protection regime shifts according to a sector's market structure (perfectly or monop-olistically competitive). We base the protection structure on Grossman and Helpman (1994) for the subset of perfectly competitive sectors and on Chang (2005) for the subset of monop- olistically competitive sectors. The two protection regimes are simultaneously estimated with joint constraints. The results of the J-test consistently reject the homogeneous (perfect compe- tition) protection-for-sale model often adopted in previous literature and suggest a direction of improvement toward the proposed heterogeneous protection structure model.

The 2004 Global Labour Survey: Working Institution And Practices Around The World, Davin Chor, Richard B. Freeman

Research Collection School Of Economics

The 2004 Global Labor Survey (GLS) is an Internet-based survey that seeks to measure de facto labor practices in countries around the world, covering issues such as freedom of association, the regulation of work contracts, employee benefits and the prevalence of collective bargaining. To find out about de facto practices, the GLS invited labor practitioners, ranging from union officials and activists to professors of labor law and industrial relations, to report on conditions in their country. Over 1,500 persons responded, which allowed us to create indices of practices in ten broad areas for 33 countries. The GLS' focus on de …

Protection For Sale Under Monopolistic Competition, Pao Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper broadens the protection for sale model of Grossman and Helpman (1994) by incorporating the Krugman–Dixit–Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition, given its importance in explaining the prevalence of intraindustry trade. Several new results arise in this paper. First, the endogenous import tariff will never fall below zero, even in unorganized sectors. Second, the endogenous export policy for organized sectors is not necessarily an export subsidy, and can be an export tax as in unorganized sectors. Third, the level of import protection varies inversely with the degree of import penetration, regardless of whether the sector is organized or not.

The Creation And Economic Regulation Of Housing Markets: A Comparison Of The Experiences Of Singapore And Korea, Sock-Yong Phang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Privatization, creation of markets and economic regulation are terms that few would immediately associate with the housing sector. Mainstream housing markets in most of the free market economies of the developed world are regarded as competitive markets, with little need for economic regulation of the market. Regulations that attempt to control behavior directly are generally limited to policies relating to rent control, the provision of rental housing or rental allowances for lower income groups, as well as land use regulations and building controls.

The housing sectors of Singapore and Korea are highly unusual in the extent of government involvement and …

The Politics Of Wto Enforcement Mechanism, Pao Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper attempts to develop a formal economic framework to analyze the influences of domestic political considerations by democratic governments in shaping the WTO enforcement outcomes following a violation ruling against the defendant. Since a different mix of import and export sectors in the defendant and complainant country will benefit from the various potential enforcement outcomes, they become competing forces which steer the strategic interactions between the disputing governments. The results of the paper illustrate the complainant's strategy in selecting the retaliation list, and the likelihood of the defendant's compliance or compensation in response to the proposed or foreseeable retaliation, …

The Politics Of Wto Enforcement Mechanism, Pao Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper attempts to develop a formal economic framework to analyze the influences of domestic political considerations by democratic governments in shaping the WTO enforcement outcomes following a violation ruling against the defendant. Since a different mix of import and export sectors in the defendant and complainant country will benefit from the various potential enforcement outcomes, they become competing forces which steer the strategic interactions between the disputing governments. The results of the paper illustrate the complainant's strategy in selecting the retaliation list, and the likelihood of the defendant's compliance or compensation in response to the proposed or foreseeable retaliation, …

The Empirical Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Interest Rates In Post-Crisis Asia, Hwee Kwan Chow, Yoonbai Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

In post-crisis Asia, all crisis-hit countries (except Malaysia) announced a shift from exchange rate based monetary policy framework to the explicit adoption of inflation targeting that uses interest rates as the key monetary policy operating instrument. In this study, we examine the empirical relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, and investigate how the dynamics between them have changed following the crisis. This is carried out by constructing a bivariate VAR-GARCH model for each of the four Asian crisis countries, namely Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand. The findings suggest these countries do not use interest rate policy more actively to …

Trade, Capital Accumulation And Structural Unemployment: An Empirical Study Of The Singapore Economy, Hiau Looi Kee, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the factors responsible for the secular decline of Singapore’s unemployment rate over the period 1966-2000 in an environment of low and stable inflation rates. We introduce wage bargaining and unions into a specific-factors, two-sector economy with an export sector and a non-tradable sector to obtain an endogenous natural unemployment rate. Increases in the relative export price and capital stock in the export sector are predicted to reduce structural unemployment. These hypotheses could not be rejected based on structural estimations and co-integration regressions. Empirically, capital accumulation in the export sector explains most of the decline in Singapore’s unemployment …

Why Is China So Competitive? Measuring And Explaining China's Competitiveness, F. Gerard Adams, Byron Gangnes, Yochanan Shachmurove

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper evaluates factors responsible for the competitiveness of China in the world economy and relative to its East Asian rivals. China has been highly successful in capturing world export markets. Chinese competitiveness is not just a matter of an undervalued exchange and extremely low labor costs. It reflects primarily the coincidence of favorable cost conditions with improvements in China’s ability to produce products that meet world market specifications. These improvements are closely related to foreign participation in China’s economy through foreign direct investment and joint venture enterprises.

Have U.S. - Japan Trade Agreements Made A Difference?, Byron Gangnes, Craig Parsons

Research Collection School Of Economics

International trade is governed by a complicated patchwork of international treaties, bilateral agreements, and unilateral actions, often directed at trade in very specific commodities. A determination of the impact of trade measures begins with an assessment of their direct effect on trade volumes and prices in targeted sectors. While in some cases—such as the recent U.S. anti-dumping duties on steel—the measures have readily identifiable impacts, in others cases the effects are more difficult to determine.

The Politics Of Wto Enforcement Mechanism, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper attempts to develop a formal economic framework to analyze the influences of domestic political considerations by democratic governments in shaping the WTO enforcement outcomes in the wake of a violation ruling against the defendant. Since a different mix of import and export sectors in the defendant and complainant country will benefit from the various potential enforcement outcomes, they become competing forces which steer the strategic interactions between the disputing governments. The results of the paper illustrate the complainant’s strategy in selecting the retaliation list, and the likelihood of the defendant’s compliance or compensation in response to the proposed …

Markov Switching Garch Models Of Currency Crises In Southeast Asia, Celso Brunetti, Roberto S. Mariano, Chiara Scotti, Augustine H. H. Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper develops a model which is able to forecast exchange rate turmoil. Our starting point relies on the empirical evidence that exchange rate volatility is not constant. In fact, the modeling strategy adopted refers to the vast literature of the GARCH class of models, where the variance process is explicitly modeled. Further empirical evidence shows that it is possible to distinguish between two different regimes: îordinaryî versus îturbulenceî. Low exchange rate changes are associated with low volatility (ordinary regime) and high exchange rate devaluations go together with high volatility. This calls for a regime switching approach. In our model …

Is Ricardo's Essay On Profits A Precursor Of The New Trade Theory?, Hian Teck Hoon

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper carefully analyzes a passage of Ricardo’s Essay on Profits ([1815] 1923), which suggests that he clearly understood the effects of both interindustry as well as intraindustry trade. In the context of the Essay model, Ricardo argues that free interindustry trade involving an exchange of manufactures for agricultural good (from England’s point of view) raises the rate of profit through lowering the relative price of the agricultural good. On the other hand, where trade involves simply an exchange of manufactures for manufactures, these being produced under conditions of economies of scale (division of labour in manufactures (pg. 25 of …

A Model Of Industrialization And International Wage Convergence Based On Multi-Plant Foreign Direct Investment, Hian Teck Hoon, Irene Ng

Research Collection School Of Economics

We show that for industrialization and international wage convergence through multi-plant foreign direct investment (FDI) to occur, the measure of the quality of the social infrastructure in the South relative to that in the North must be at least as large as the South-North wage ratio. We also show that if profitable FDI flows already take place from the North to the most productive economy in the South, then less productive Southern economies can also become recipients of FDI, provided that they are integrated into the world trading system, and there are no impediments to the decline of their wage …

Endogenous Tariff Formation With Intra-Industry Trade, Pao-Li Chang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Previous theoretical contributions on endogenous tariff formation have focused on trade models with homogeneous goods and constant returns to scale. This paper investigates the political equilibrium of trade policy when economic structure is instead characterized by differentiated products and increasing returns to scale and there exists intra-industry trade. The result shows that endogenous tariffs are positive for all industries with non-negligible shares of world production. However, the level of protection is less than the optimal tariff that would otherwise be imposed by a benevolent government in an unorganized industry, and higher in an organized industry. The protection provided to all …