International Economics Commons^™

Land Policy And Welfare In China, Xin Zou

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation quantitatively studies the impact of land policy on welfare in China. There are two specific nationwide land policies of importance on which I focus: 1) The red-line policy that imposes a minimum 1.2 million square kilometers for agricultural use only 2) The zoning policy for urban land that strictly regulates the amount of industrial and residential land usages respectively; In the first chapter, I give an introduction about the land policy and institutional background in China and the related literature to my dissertation. Second chapter builds a two-sector(two-region) model to examine how the red-line policy interacts with land …

Efficiency, Quality Of Forecasts And Radner Equilibria, Shurojit Chatterji, Atsushi Kajii

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study a simple two period economy with no uncertainty and complete markets where agents trade based on forecasts about the second period spot price. We propose as our solution concept a set of forecasts with the following properties: there exist (heterogenous) forecasts contained in this set that lead to efficient allocations, the set contains only those forecasts that correspond to some efficient equilibrium, and Önally that the forecasts assign positive probability to the actual market clearing spot price. We call such a set of prices an efficient equilibrium with ambiguity, and interpret it as a generalization of Radner equilibrium …

Cross-Border Technology Investments In Recessions, Juliana Yu Sun, Huanhuan Zheng

Research Collection School Of Economics

Utilizing industry-level foreign direct investment (FDI) from 72 source markets to 122 destination markets between 2003 to 2018, we apply a differences-in-differences approach to evaluate the response of technology FDI to recessions. We find that research and development (R&D) intensive FDI drops when the destination market is in recession and the source market is in a normal state, and recovers to the pre-recession levels when both destination and source markets are in recession. The result is particularly pronounced in deep and long recessions, during the propagation stage of recessions, and in destination markets with stronger intellectual property protection, looser FDI …

Three Essays On Quality Of Tradable Products, Angdi Lu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation includes three essays on the quality of tradable products. The first chapter studies the supply-side determinants of quality specialization across Chinese cities. Specifically, we complement the quality specialization literature in international trade and study how larger cities within a country produce goods with higher quality. In our general equilibrium model, firms in larger cities specialize in higher-quality products because agglomeration benefits (arising from the treatment effect of agglomeration and firm sorting) accrue more to skilled workers, who are also more efficient in upgrading quality, although these effects are partially mitigated by higher skill premium in larger cities. Using …

Foreign Direct Investment And Industrial Agglomeration: Evidence From China, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Xuan Luo, Lianming Zhu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on industrial ag-glomeration. Using the differential effects of FDI deregulation in 2002 in China on different industries, we find that FDI actually affects industrial agglomeration neg-atively. As FDI brings technological spillovers and various agglomeration benefits, other forces must be at work to drive our empirical finding. We propose a simple theory that FDI may discourage industrial agglomeration due to fiercer competition pressure. We find various evidence on this competition mechanism. We also examine an alternative theory based on spatial political competition, but find no evidence sup-porting it. On industrial growth, …

Sustainable Cooperation In International Trade: A Quantitative Analysis, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

How does the presence of multilateral institutions affect the sustainability of trade-policy cooperation? Do free-trade agreements make multilateral cooperation less sustainable? Will countries be more likely to deviate from negotiated tariffs when more trade liberalization realizes in the future? These questions have been studied in theory literature using models that feature repeated games, but have yet to be quantitatively analyzed. In this paper, I propose a methodology to quantitatively characterize the equilibrium strategies on tariffs of various nations in a widely used repeated-game framework. I then apply this methodology to address these questions from a quantitative perspective. The numerical results …

Infrastructure Investment And Travel Time, Yumi Koh, Gea M. Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

We examine additional travel time that arises as reconstruction of non-functioning bridges gets delayed. Our simulations show that the extent to which a budget increase reduces such additional travel time is rather modest. We show that a substantial portion of the unsolved travel time results from budgetary allocations.

Competition, Markups, And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade in a model with head-to-head competition using Chinese firm-level data from Economic Censuses in 1995 and 2004. We find a significant reduction in trade cost during this period, and total gains from such improved openness during this period is 7.1%. The gains are decomposed into a Ricardian component and two pro-competitive ones. The pro-competitive effects account for 20% of the total gains. Moreover, the total gains from trade are 13 − 31% larger than what would result from the formula provided by ACR (Arkolakis et al., 2012), which nests a …

Singapore In The Global Value Chains, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this chapter, we analyze the participation of Singapore in the global value chains (GVC): how much of its gross exports are GVC-related trade, how downstream it is, and which countries are its key upstream and downstream trade partners. This is done at both the country aggregate and at the sector level. New formulas are proposed in the gross export decomposition framework of Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Borin and Mancini (2017), to characterize a country/industry’s downstreamness in the GVC and the importance of each trade partner in its backward/forward linkages. Singapore is found to start off with a …

The Future Development Of Reits In China, Jia Sun

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) is a type of trust fund or corporation that pools the funds of a large number of investors by issuing a certificate of income and invest the raised funds in real estate projects that are managed by a specialized investment institution. The real estate investment risk is moderate, and the rent is stable, but the capital threshold is high, and it is difficult for small and medium investors to enter the market. The invention of REITs aims to solve this problem, through the collection of funds, so that small and medium investors can enter the …

Innovation, Growth, And Dynamic Gains From Trade, Wen-Tai Hsu, Raymond G. Riezman, Ping Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

How large are the welfare gains from trade? Would such gains be significantly amplified in the long run when productivity is endogenously enhanced? To address these questions, we focus on the dynamic effect of trade, in particular, how trade affects the incentives for technological advancement. We construct an innovation-based endogenous growth model of North-South trade. There are two types of innovation: one by the North to upgrade the general purpose technology (GPT) and another by all countries to advance entrepreneurial knowledge for developing differentiated products. We find sizable welfare gains from trade, about 5.3% when compared to autarky. The gains …

Financing Singapore’S Smes And The Crowdfunding Industry In Singapore, Swee Liang Tan, Yoke Wang Tok, Thitipat Chansriniyom

Research Collection School Of Economics

As new digital technologies emerge that make the provision of financial services more efficient, they hold the potential to address barriers that SMEs face in accessing credit. This paper found empirical evidence that crowdfunding improved SMEs’ timeliness to pay debt. Anecdotal evidence from SMEs suggests that getting crowdfunding loans also induced financing from banks. In just four years, Singapore’s crowdfunding volumes have grown rapidly to make it the top crowdfunding hub in Southeast Asia. The rapid development of Singapore’s crowdfunding industry can be attributed to its higher GDP per capita, higher level of financial sector development and greater availability of …

International Trade, Fdi And Agency Problems, Yuting Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises three papers that separately study product quality in international trade, the governance’ effect on FDI and the agency problems in firms’ exporting decisions.

The first chapter quantifies the contribution of differences in quality preferences to the differences in gains from trade across countries. The quantification demonstrates that variations in the strength of quality preferences across countries add to heterogeneities across countries in market competitiveness. If the quality channel is shut down, countries with stronger preferences for quality have larger degrees of underestimations in their losses from the trade barrier. Finally, gains from a universal rise in quality …

The Interplay Between Real Estate Prices In Shenzhen, Dongguan And Huizhou, Zhituan Su

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

In recent years, the Chinese government has proposed a national development strategy for the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, which has been beefing up the trend of integrated development of Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou, frontiers of the reform and opening up. Among many other topics, the evolution of the real estate prices in Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou has become a front-burner topic.

In this dissertation focusing on the real estate price in Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou, we have conducted in-depth analysis of the interplay between the real estate price in Shenzhen, Dongguan and Huizhou from such perspectives as …

How China’S Ageing Population Will Impact On The Rest Of Us, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The world’s second largest economy is getting old before it gets rich

Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series

The CPTPP, or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an example of a “mega-regional” free trade agreement, whose provisions on the rules of origin and trade facilitation can have potentially large impacts on the CPTPP-wide supply chains. In this paper, we investigate whether the CPTPP members are key upstream and downstream trade partners to each other in the global value chains. We develop formulas of bilateral upstreamness and downstreamness, based on the gross-export decomposition framework of Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Borin and Mancini (2017). We demonstrate how the decomposition of gross exports can be used …

Global Value Chains And The Cptpp, Pao-Li Chang, Tran Bao Phuong Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

The CPTPP, or the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, is an example of a “mega-regional” free trade agreement, whose provisions on the rules of origin and trade facilitation can have potentially large impacts on the CPTPP-wide supply chains. In this paper, we investigate whether the CPTPP members are key upstream and downstream trade partners to each other in the global value chains. We develop formulas of bilateral upstreamness and downstreamness, based on the gross-export decomposition framework of Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Borin and Mancini (2017). We demonstrate how the decomposition of gross exports can be used …

Stock Recommendations In China: Buyer Beware, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Research analysts have incentives to issue positive recommendations; social ties with fund managers exert considerable influence

Volatility Spillovers Among Oil And Stock Markets In The Us And Saudi Arabia, Marinela Adriana Finta, Bart Frijns, Alireza Tourani-Rad

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In this article, we use high frequency data and an identification via changes in volatility approach to assess the volatility spillovers among oil and the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets. We document the existence of asymmetry in contemporaneous spillover effects. Particularly, during the times when oil’s trading hours overlap with the US and Saudi Arabian stock markets, the volatility spillover from oil to the stock markets is higher than the other way around. We highlight the importance of taking into consideration the information present during continuous trading hours of oil, especially during simultaneous trading hours with the stock markets. …

Competition, Markups, And Gains From Trade: A Quantitative Analysis Of China Between 1995 And 2004, Wen-Tai Hsu, Yi Lu, Guiying Laura Wu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of gains from trade in a model with head-to-head competition using Chinese firm-level data from Economic Censuses in 1995 and 2004. We find a significant reduction in trade cost during this period, and total gains from such improved openness during this period is 7:1%. The gains are decomposed into a Ricardian component and two pro-competitive ones. The procompetitive effects account for 20% of the total gains. Moreover, the total gains from trade are 13 31% larger than what would result from the formula provided by ACR (Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012), which nests a …

A Two-Round In-Class Trading Game On The Principle Of Comparative Advantage And The Theory Of Reciprocal Demand, Bei Hong

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper outlines a classroom trading game that explores equilibrium terms of trade using the principle of comparative advantage and theory of reciprocal demand. Students are divided into eight groups. Each group is assigned a country with hypothetical productivity and each country seeks its trading partner based on comparative advantage. Students simulate the trading of goods between countries with the objective of achieving the best possible terms of trade. The game encourages students to reflect on their learning of the principle of comparative advantage, consider improvements in trade terms through negotiation, and summarize the conditions for mutually beneficial terms of …

Made In Singapore, Pao-Li Chang, Phuong T. B. Nguyen

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, we characterize the position of Singapore in global value chains and identify Singapore's key upstream and downstream trade partners. We trace how the position of Singapore in global value chains has changed in the past two decades: whether it has moved upstream or downstream, how involved it is in global value chains, how its trend compares with other major Asian exporting countries (China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan), and which key sectors of Singapore play a major role in these global trade networks.

U.S. Economic Outlook For The Rest Of 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Fed rates to inch up as GDP grows but China-U.S. trade war is a major worry

Geography, Trade And Power-Law Phenomena, Pao-Li Chang, Wen-Tai Hsu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article provides a review on the theories of various power-law phenomena related to geography and trade. In particular, we focus our discussion on the gravity equation of trade flows, the power law in firm size, and the link between the two - highlighting the roles of geography and trade in the theoretical modeling. We also discuss how these two power-law phenomena may be related to other power-law phenomena, such as those in income, firm productivity and city size.

Income Inequality, Productivity, And International Trade, Wen-Tai Hsu, Lin Lu, Pierre Picard

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper discusses the effect of income inequality on selection and aggregate productivity in a general equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences. It shows the existence of a negative relationship between the number and quantity of products consumed by an income group and the earnings of other income groups. It also highlights the negative effect of a mean-preserving spread of income on aggregate productivity through the softening of firms’ selection. This effect is however mitigated in the presence of international trade. In a quantitative analysis, it is shown that an excessively large mean-preserving spread of income may harm the rich as …

International Trade, Trade Policy, And The Wto, Wei Jin

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation comprises three papers that study the welfare impact of GATT/WTO, the effects of preference bias on trade flows and welfare, and the optimal trade policy with strategic interactions under a Ricardian model. The first chapter provides a comprehensive evaluation of the welfare impact of GATT/WTO in its entire history of 1950-2015 for 180 countries. The analysis embeds non-parametric matching methods in structural quantitative simulations. The results indicate substantial (but highly heterogeneous) welfare gains created by GATT/WTO at the global level and across more than six decades of its history. An extensive set of robustness checks with respect to …

Belt Road Initiative: A Chinese Future, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Despite concerns over debt and geopolitics, Asian countries should embrace a Sino-centric economic future

In a speech at the 52nd Munich Security Conference in 2016, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying opened by saying:

“China has been asked frequently: are you challenging the US as leader of the world order? Or, are you making a parallel order? The answer is: of course not, we are part of the international order.”

The Indian Diaspora, Culture, And Foreign Policy, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Indians living overseas can be a bridge to a rapidly changing world

In the United Nations “International Migration Report 2015”, India had the largest diaspora population in the world with 16 million individuals born in the country but living outside of it. It’s a 100 percent increase from the 8 million in 2000, with an increasing number making their way to the United States where Indians make up the second largest immigrant group after Mexicans.

The Global Economic Outlook In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

Oil prices will not reach US$120, more U.S. Fed rate hikes expected, and Brexit’s fallout to remain largely within Europe

China And India In 2018, Singapore Management University

Perspectives@SMU

The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts different trajectories for the world’s two most populous countries.