International Economics Commons^™

Converging, But Not Together: Regional Growth After Eu Enlargement, Armine Kardashyan

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies whether poorer regions in Central and Eastern Europe have caught up to richer ones since EU enlargement, and whether any observed catch-up reflects absolute convergence or convergence conditional on regional fundamentals. Using annual NUTS-3 data for eleven Central and Eastern European member states from 2000 to 2023, I estimate rolling ten-year convergence regressions within a steady-state framework in which regional GDP per capita depends on investment, human capital, and within-window exposure to EU membership.

The results show strong evidence of conditional convergence during the early and middle phases of enlargement. Regions that begin a window above their …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

Keeping America Ahead: The Global Chip Conundrum, Ethan Chen

CMC Senior Theses

Semiconductors underpin nearly every aspect of modern economic, military, and technological power. Yet while the United States pioneered chip innovation and design, it now heavily depends on foreign manufacturing, particularly Taiwan and the Taiwanese Semiconductor Manufacturing Company who produce more than 90% of the world’s leading edge chips. This thesis investigates how the U.S. lost its fabrication leadership, what risks its current dependence creates, and what strategies can most effectively restore domestic capacity and resilience in both the short term and long term. By going through historical analysis of industrial development, recent policy evaluation such as export controls and the …

An Examination Of Remittance Inflow Variation In Net-Emigration Countries, Andrew Rizko

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the structural and institutional determinants of remittance inflows in a panel of 40 net-emigration countries from 2000 to 2024. By restricting the sample to countries with negative average net migration, the analysis holds migration pressure constant and isolates the role of domestic conditions in explaining cross-country variation in remittance dependence. Using fixed effects and correlated random effects (Mundlak) estimators, I find that labor force participation is the most robust within-country determinant: a one percentage point increase is associated with approximately a 2.3 percent decline in remittance inflows, consistent with remittances functioning as a structural need in contexts …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Unintended Consequences: Exploring The Nexus Between Us Foreign Aid, Governance, & Conflict Fatalities, Audrey Hope Donahue

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of United States foreign aid on civil violence in recipient countries, specifically investigating the interaction between aid implementation channels—bilateral aid, implemented directly by recipient governments, vs. multilateral aid, implemented through Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) or other multilateral partners—and governance quality. Using a panel dataset covering 49 countries from 1996 to 2022, the study measures the effect of aid on violence through conflict-related fatalities normalized by population. A fixed-effects regression model is employed to control for country-specific and time-specific factors, revealing that in countries with poor governance, bilateral aid is associated with a reduction in conflict fatalities, …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

The Uncertain Promise Of Foreign Bank Entry: Institutional Quality Effects On The Foreign Bank–Financial Inclusion Nexus, Jason Dedman

CMC Senior Theses

Despite the precipitous rise in foreign bank presence due to ever increasing financial globalization, the literature on the nexus between foreign banks and financial inclusion remains critically underdeveloped. This paper revisits the relationship between foreign bank presence and financial inclusion in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), extending the methodology of Gopalan and Rajan (2018) by integrating updated ownership data from Panizza (2024) and introducing institutional quality as a moderating variable. Employing both fixed effects and system generalized method of moments on a panel dataset of 128 EMDEs, this study finds that foreign bank presence has a far more ambiguous effect …

Trade Tensions And Consumer Decisions: Evidence From Taxable Sales During The 2018 Us-China Trade War, Eddie Wei

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the consumption response to the 2018 US-China trade war. While prior research has largely focused on economic outcomes such as export values, income, and employment, trade policies may also have salient distributional consequences for consumption. On one hand, import tariffs may boost well-being in regions with greater employment in protected sectors, such as manufacturing. On the other hand, retaliatory tariffs may raise prices overall and depress consumption in areas more reliant on the Chinese market, such as agriculture. To explore these dynamics, I construct a novel dataset of county-level taxable sales, capturing both household and business spending. …

Architects Of War: The Economic And Industrial Strategies Of The Third Reich And United States Under Albert Speer And William Knudsen, Spencer David Taylor

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis presents a chronological narrative that delves into the economic and industrial underpinnings of the Second World War, focusing on the contrasting war machines of Germany and the United States. By examining the strategic decisions and outcomes shaped by two central figures, Albert Speer of Germany and William S. Knudsen of the United States, this study highlights how their approaches to war production profoundly influenced the overall trajectory and outcome of the war. Knudsen’s embodiment of the American industrial spirit and Speer’s manipulation of Germany's constrained resources illustrate the crucial roles that economic strategies played alongside military operations. The …

Finding Answers In Gaps: The Relationship Between Drugs And Mexico's Economy, Mariela Centeno

CMC Senior Theses

This paper sets out to understand the economic conditions that paved the way for the evolution and resilience of a powerful and resilient drug economy in Mexico. To do this, I examine the relationship between a proxy for drug movement from Mexico and large economic variables in the country. I use a dataset that incorporates the drug seizures from 1997 to 2022 to understand whether privatization and the resulting rising economic inequalities in Mexico paved the way for a growing drug economy. This paper builds on current literature regarding drug market estimates and drug economy interactions. Using an OLS regression …

The Effect Of Free Trade Agreements On Innovation: Evidence From Us Bilateral Free Trade Agreements With Australia, Chile, Singapore, And South Korea, Cameron Stevens

CMC Senior Theses

This paper combines two datasets to identify the effect of joining a bilateral Free Trade Agreement with the United States on innovation in four select countries: Australia, Chile, Singapore, and South Korea. Using an probability concordance developed by Lybbert and Zolas (2014), I map the number of patents recorded by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) into four digit North-American-Industry-Classification-System (NAICS) codes, which are then combined with industry level trade data from the US International Trade Committee (USITC). Using a difference-in-differences regression model, I estimate that joining an FTA increases the number of annual patent filings by 44 in a …

A Philosophical And Empirical Investigation Into Buddhist Economics, Hannah Doyle

CMC Senior Theses

There is a growing body of literature on Buddhist economics from a philosophical perspective; however, no work to date has sought to empirically validate it as an effective economic theory at a global scale. In my paper, I draw on the long history of Buddhist metaphysics to construct an account of Buddhist ethics and then proceed to derive a set of Buddhist economic principles. I draw on the World Happiness Report’s methodology to quantitatively demonstrate the relationship between Buddhist economic principles and the psychological wellbeing of a country’s citizens, as measured through their own evaluation of their quality of life …

Did Demonetization Have A Bigger Impact On Ppis (Prepaid Payment Instruments) Or Mobile Banking In India?, Ansh Vora

CMC Senior Theses

On November 8, 2016, Narendra Modi, prime minister of India, tele-advertised the entire nation and announced that India's highest value banknotes, the 500 and 1000 rupee “Rs” notes would be demonetized and taken out of circulation, effective midnight. Modi stated that this is an effort to reduce the large economy of black money, transition India into a digital economy, abolish funding of terrorist groups and illicit circulation of counterfeit notes. In this study, I choose to analyze the impact of demonetization on two digital payment methods - Prepaid Payment Instruments, “PPI” and Mobile Banking. The data used in this study …

Balancing Trade And Security During The Us-China Trade War: A Gravity Model Approach To South Korea’S Relations With The United States And China, Nathalie Chavez

CMC Senior Theses

In analyzing monthly trade and gross domestic product (GDP) data for South Korea, China, and the United States from January 2016 to December 2019, this paper attempts to quantify the effects of the US-China Trade War on Korea’s security and economic considerations. By using a three-country gravity model with both monthly and HS Code (harmonized system) fixed effects, it finds the following. First, increases in both real GDP for the United States and China, as well as real GDP for Korea, are positively associated with increases in Korean exports at statistically significant levels. Thus, the general predictions of the gravity …

Impact Of Demand For H1b Visas In The Us On The Performance Of Listed Indian Firms, Jayaditya Shekhar Maliye

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between Indian firm performance and the demand for H1B visas in the US. To test this relationship, a fixed effects model has been used on a panel dataset of 104 Indian firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) over the period 2009 to 2021. The results show that an increase in H1B visa demand is negatively and significantly associated with Indian firm performance. These findings suggest that the US’s demand for high skilled labor overseas has consequences for firms in the home country.

Disembedded Liberalism: The Global Pressure On Democracy, Hallie Spear

CMC Senior Theses

The international political order is at a crossroads with divergent paths. Liberal democracy is once again threatened on the international stage. What's more troubling is that the most stable and influential democracies, the United States, those in Europe and India, seem to be vulnerable to the autocratic wave sweeping through the world. This thesis completes a critical analysis to understand the root causes of the recent disruption to democracy the world has observed. Focusing on three established, diverse, and populous democracies, this thesis investigates the economic conditions at play that made each nation vulnerable to populism. Neoliberal economic policies implemented …

Integrating Carbon Pricing Approaches, Amay Shah

CMC Senior Theses

Concerns about global climate change and its effects have been steadily growing around the world in recent years. The Paris Agreement has laid out ambitious targets for countries to cut their emissions in order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees and to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Carbon pricing mechanisms are an inventive instrument that can help achieve these emissions reductions by placing a price on greenhouse gas emissions, creating incentives for organizations to reduce their emissions. These mechanisms can also help enable the transfers from wealthy nations to developing nations that will be essential for ensuring a …

Black Maoism, But Make It Fashion: How The Black Panther Party Utilized Mao Zedong’S Marxist Interpretations In Conjunction With Fashion To Redefine Us Militarism, Chiugo Akujuobi

Scripps Senior Theses

This thesis explores the intersections present between the multifaceted, sociopolitical institutions of Marxism and communism with a highlight on their seedling Maoism; the revolutionary organization that is the Black Panther Party; and the art of fashion and processes that create modes of dress, that emblazon dress with identity, meaning, and purpose. The lenses with which these complex topics will showcase themselves and intersect are through militarism and militarization. These lenses and topics of intersection work in tandem to produce an examination of the Black Panther Party’s subversion and redefinition of the practices of militarism and militarization. Specifically, the main point …

U.S.-China Bilateral Trade Flows And U.S. Employment, Tobin Hansen

CMC Senior Theses

The U.S.-China diplomatic relationship today is shaped significantly by economic factors. Recent strains of literature have expanded our understanding of how international economic policy choices have effected U.S. workers and labor markets. This paper extends this research by imposing bilateral symmetry in the trade flow calculations of previous works, which historically have considered U.S. exports globally. I build on the net-impact analysis of Feenstra, Ma, and Xu (2017b) and adopt the instrumental variable strategy used in Acemoglu et al. (2016), which uses Chinese trade flows with eight additional high-income countries to avoid endogeneity when comparing U.S.-China trade. From this analysis, …

An Analysis Of The Impact Of The Section 232 Steel And Aluminum Tariffs: Primary Metal Manufacturing Employment In 2016 Trump And Clinton Majority Counties, Sarah Malott

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the potential impact of the Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum on employment using county-level data. This study finds that although employment has increased in steel and aluminum related manufacturing industries, it has decreased in a significant downstream industry of manufacturers of steel products. Furthermore, I analyzed the difference in employment trends between counties that voted majority Trump in the 2016 presidential election and counties that voted majority Clinton, and between counties that experienced marginal victories and counties that voted solidly Democrat or Republican. I find that Trump counties have experienced the impact of the tariffs …

The Effectiveness Of Collaboration Within Supply Chain Management: A Case Study Of Adidas Group, Daniel Carr

CMC Senior Theses

For a multi-national company like Adidas, supply chain management is one of the most crucial aspects of business operations. Products cannot be sold unless Adidas’s supply chain is well-managed and efficient, and public perception of a brand/company is critical to success.

This case study analyzes the effectiveness of Adidas's distinct “collaborative approach” to supply chain management, which is characterized by not only monitoring and auditing suppliers, but also training them to make Adidas’s standards their own and approaching suppliers with the intention of building long-term relationships where the suppliers can become self-sufficient.

This study reviews the structure of Adidas's supply …

Evolving Conceptions Of Sovereignty As Applied To Membership In International Organizations, Luke C. Radice

CMC Senior Theses

In the current international climate, both nations and individuals increasingly question both the validity and necessity of international organizations. This paper seeks to answer some of those questions, and to determine why countries choose to surrender significant portions of the national power that they are afforded under traditional perceptions of “Westphalian sovereignty”. This question is answered through an analysis of historical political thought on the concept of Sovereignty, then is applied to two case studies: the United Nations and the European Union, in which the benefits and downsides of surrendering sovereignty are discussed. Ultimately, this thesis concludes that the concept …

Leveraging Trade Agreements To Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions In Accordance With The Paris Agreement, Sam Becker

CMC Senior Theses

Climate change is the most obvious and pressing impairment of the biological, physical, and chemical systems. To help mitigate this unprecedented problem, I present heads of state, policymakers, and members of civil society with a set of new provisions that they can include in their trade agreements to drive emissions reduction from countries inside and outside of their trade agreements, maintain their ability to compete in an increasingly globalized world, and comply with international trading rules. Ultimately, I seek to demonstrate the untapped potential for leveraging trade agreements to reduce emissions in the midst of an international system that lacks …

The Cultural Legacy Of Communism In Entrepreneurship: Entrepreneurial Perceptions And Activity In Central And Eastern Europe, Amy Wu

CMC Senior Theses

Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, this paper examines differences in entrepreneurial perceptions (fear of failure, opportunity perception, self-efficacy, public opinion) between CEE and non-CEE countries, before and after the 2008 recession, as well as the effects of these perceptions on entrepreneurial motivation and overall levels of activity. The results suggest that CEE countries have systematically more pessimistic outlooks in terms of fear of failure and opportunity perception, but no difference from non-CEE countries in self-efficacy and public opinion. Additionally, most of the difference in fear of failure and opportunity perception, along with an increase in necessity-motivated entrepreneurship, comes …

The Political Economy Of Participation In The Euro: A Case Study Of Italy And Germany, Thomas Schalke

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis analyses the political economy of the decision of Italy and Germany to participate in the euro. The emphasis is on understanding the economic rationales employed in each country in support of euro membership.

For Italy, the central argument is that Italy outsourced monetary policy management to the ECB in order to delimit deficient domestic policy making and import German monetary credibility. This transferred the costs of monetary orthodoxy to Europe, and the thesis briefly examines places where we might observe those costs.

For Germany, the argument is that, out of respect for the national humiliation and shame of …

The Role Of Conflict In Sub-Saharan Africa, Samy Lemos

CMC Senior Theses

Sub-Saharan Africa is the provider of many critical natural resources. With such resources, one would expect these countries to have thriving economies. Why is the opposite case true? To answer such a question, this paper examines a few critical causes that may justify the current economic situation these African countries are experiencing. Specifically, the paper observes the economic impact of civil war and terrorist conflict in sub-Saharan Africa from 1971 to 2016. To explore the changes in GDP per capita for all these years, this thesis sheds light on three independent variables: year of conflict, education level, and foreign direct …