International Economics Commons^™

Built By Hand, Run By Machine: Robots And The Uneven Displacement Of Native And Migrant Workers In Germany (2012-2024), Farida Mohamed Elkhosht

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates whether industrial robot adoption generates differential employment effects for native and migrant workers across German local labor markets, using district-level data for 393 districts over 2012–2024. This question matters because Germany combines one of the world's highest concentrations of industrial robots with one of the largest migrant workforces in the OECD. Despite growing policy interest in the distributional effects of technological change, limited evidence exists on whether automation affects native and migrant employment differently within the same local labor markets. Using Bartik shift-share design to measure exogenous variation in robot exposure, the study finds that the effect …

The Asymmetric Effect Of The Rupiah Exchange Rate On Indonesia's Non-Oil And Gas Exports, Muhammad Sugiantoro, Diah Wahyuningsih, Ris Yuwono Yudo Nugroho, Widita Kurniasari, Ahmad Kamil

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

This study aims to analyze the asymmetric effect of the rupiah exchange rate on Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports, by considering the control variables. As well as identifying whether Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports are more responsively influenced by rupiah exchange rate depreciation or rupiah exchange rate appreciation. The analysis technique used is Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) with quarterly data from 2016 to 2023. The results showed that the rupiah exchange rate has an asymmetric effect on Indonesia's non-oil and gas sector exports, both in the short and long term. Depreciation and appreciation of the rupiah exchange …

Passed Through Or Pushed Back? Exchange Rate Effects On Manufacturing Trade Prices In Indonesia And The Asean Plus Three, Fatikha Rizky Kurnia, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Wee-Yeap Lau, Unggul Heriqbaldi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzes the Exchange Rate Pass-Through (ERPT) on export and import prices in Indonesia’s manufacturing trade with ASEAN Plus-three countries (China, Japan, and South Korea) using monthly data from 2016 to 2022. Employing the Nonlinear (NARDL) models, we examine the degree and asymmetry of ERPT across five key manufacturing sectors for each partner. The NARDL model confirms asymmetric price responses to currency appreciation and depreciation in several sectors. The findings reveal significant sectoral and country-specific variations. Some export sectors experience complete pass-through in the short term but shift to negative complete passthrough in the long run. Meanwhile, imports from …

Is Fdi A Panacea? Unveiling Spillover Effects On Efficiency And Risk In Indonesian Manufacturing, Fichrie Fachrowi Adli, Dyah Wulan Sari, Dian Enggar Lintang Pertiwi, Mohammad Zeqi Yasin

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study builds on Javorcik (2004), who argues that countries attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) with the expectation that spillovers will benefit local firms. However, empirical evidence on this effect remains inconsistent. This research addresses the gap by examining the impact of horizontal spillovers not only on production efficiency but also on production risk. It also accounts for firm heterogeneity in the manufacturing sector by classifying technological intensity using unsupervised machine learning, specifically K-means clustering, into three categories based on OECD (2011): High Technology (HT), Medium Technology (MT), and Low Technology (LT). The study uses data from Statistik Industri (SI) …

Fiscal And Monetary Policies For Inclusive Growth In Developing And Emerging Markets, Collins Anosike

Journal of Global Awareness

The study examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policies in attaining inclusive growth for some developing countries and emerging markets. The study selected 20 countries and grouped them into group one and group two. The study is unique because it captures a broader range of countries compared to previous studies and shows their effect on economic growth. We use panel data and employ OLS regression and Johansen cointegration. We examine how each variable, general government expenditure, gross national expenditure, total revenue, official exchange rate, broad money, and deposit interest rate, affects the dependent variable (real GDP) from 1980 to …

Protection Vs. Progression: A Macroeconomic Approach To Military Expenditure Direct Effects On Social Outcomes Using Ihdi Measures, Connor Graham

Global Tides

This study examines whether military expenditure reduces inequality-adjusted human development and how national governance quality moderates these effects. Using panel data covering 121 countries from 2010-2023, two-way fixed effects models are employed to estimate the relationship between military spending and the Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI). Three key findings emerge from the analysis based on the resulting data. First, a one percentage point increase in military spending reduces IHDI by 0.0012-0.0015 points. Second, the effects prove seven times larger in developed countries than in developing ones, which runs contrary to expectations and prior literature. Lastly, political stability emerged as a …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

Investigating The Relationship Between Noun Classes And Plant Folk Taxonomy In Chasu Language Of Kilimanjaro Region In Tanzania, Peter Rabson Mziray

Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences

The current study investigates the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu (G 22). The study focuses on two objectives: the first objective is to describe the plant folk taxonomy in Chasu and the second objective is to determine the relationship between noun classes and plant folk taxonomy in Chasu. Data were collected from rural villages in Same and Mwanga districts by using free listing, field interviews (jungle-walk-and-identify), and written texts containing Chasu plant names. The findings reveal that Chasu folk taxonomy reflects different ethnobotanical categories; including a unique beginner which is mmea/mimea ‘plant(s)’, and three life …

Analisis Dampak Kebijakan Insentif Fiskal Terhadap Tingkat Komponen Dalam Negeri (Tkdn) Industri Manufaktur Di Indonesia, Muhammad Muhammad, Riyanto Riyanto

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Over the last decade, the manufacturing sector's contribution to Indonesia's economy has declined. In 2010, it was 29.10% of GDP, but by 2022, it had dropped to 19.14%. Employment in the sector also fell, from 14.91% of the workforce in 2010 to 13.80% in 2022. To reverse this trend, the government introduced a policy to boost the Domestic Component Level (DCL) in manufacturing. By offering fiscal incentives to industries meeting certain DCL targets, the government aims to drive economic growth and job creation. A study using BPS data from 2008-2019 shows that this policy raised DCL by 23.5%.

Triple Shock On External Sustainability In Indonesia, Aloysius Deno Hervino, Insukindro Insukindro, Sekar Utami Setiastuti, Amirullah Setya Hardi

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study evaluates Indonesia’s external sustainability by analyzing exports, imports, and net unilateral transfer payments. The study utilizes Indonesia’s data from the third quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2019, applying both a long-run dynamic model and a short-run forward-looking model incorporating triple shocks. This research excludes the period from 2020 onwards due to the economic upheaval in Indonesia resulting from the COVID-19 outbreak. This study concludes that Indonesia’s current account is unsustainable, as neither export nor import variables exhibit a long-term link, hence failing to meet intertemporal budget constraints. Furthermore, imports substantially influence long-term exports, which increase …

Microfinance In Latin America: Sustainability, Growth, And Efficiency, Katelyn M. Hoidal

Global Tides

The subsequent research addresses the question: Within populous Latin American countries (Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Argentina, Chile, and Peru), are microfinance institutions associated with differences in GDP and household consumption equally between 2010 and 2018? Which do they have a stronger correlation with? The essence of this question seeks to answer whether the correlation between MFIs and wealth indicators carries over to a national level or merely persists at an individual level. This research has been informed and influenced by literature and studies conducted across South Asia, Africa, and Latin America focusing on the research of Abdelkader, Naveeda, Annim, Campbell, Armendáriz, …

Beyond The Stats: Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Performance Metrics And Nationality On Major League Soccer Player Salaries: A Panel Data Analysis, Daniel Pereira

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possibility of how player in-game individual performance and nationality shape the salary system in Major League Soccer (MLS). The objective is to evaluate the direct relationship between key performance indicators (KPIs) such as field position, goals, assists, appearances, and defensive contributions, and how these factors are different between domestic and international players.

Ai Adoption And Wage Growth In U.S. Industries: A Sectoral Analysis, Demitrius Andrellos

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming nearly every sector and has significant implications for workers and their wages. This paper examines the impact of the utilization of AI on wage growth across various industries in the United States. Through analysis of trends, examination of current research, and regression analysis using real industry data, the research demonstrates the disparate impacts of AI. Research suggests that AI raises wages in tech- and finance-centric sectors where it complements humans but keeps wages down in labor-intensive sectors where it replaces them. Understanding this disparity is important to build equitable workforce policies for the AI age.

Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Macroeconomic Determinants On Equity Reit Performance, Chris Morello

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates how equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) respond to key macroeconomic factors: stock market performance, interest rate changes, and inflation. Using annual data from 1972 to 2024, multiple linear regressions are conducted to assess which variables significantly explain REIT returns. The results reveal a strong and consistent relationship between equity REIT performance and S&P 500 returns, while interest rates and lagged inflation measures show no statistically significant impact. These findings suggest that REITs behave more like equities than fixed-income assets, particularly in the long term. While the models have limited explanatory power, the analysis supports the idea …

Determinants Of Wealth Inequality In Central America: A Panel Data Analysis Of Socioeconomic And Institutional Factors, Jose Manuel Fernandez Pou

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study applies a non-linear panel threshold regression model to examines the factors of economic development in Central America, with an emphasis on institutional and socioeconomic factors. Using data acquired between 2000 and 2023 the research evaluates how different variables like trade openness, FDI, financial development, education spending, inflation and population growth impacts the growth of GDP at different levels of institutional quality. The results demonstrate that institutional quality levels create a distinct threshold effect when trade openness and FDI fail to promote growth in weak institutional settings while inflation volatility strongly hinders growth. FDI and financial development show positive …

Beyond The Road Trip: Investigating The Impact Of Travel Fatigue On Nba Team Performance, Anthony Pugliese

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the impact of travel fatigue on NBA player performance. In this paper we will look at key variables such as back-to-back games and long-distance travel. By using specific team by team data on factors like game results, travel distance, and rest days. This study examined how specific factors like time zone shifts and travel length influences winning percentage and player efficiency. This paper will also show a regression analysis and visual data to back up results using real life data. The results showed that team performance decreased significantly when teams were at a higher rate of travel …

The Contemporaneous Impact Of Unemployment And Income Inequality On Violent Vs Property Crime Rates In New England: A Panel Data And Machine Learning Approach, Cora Sousa

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the possible impact of unemployment and income inequality on property and or violent crimes in the New England region in the United States from 2003 to 2022. Using a panel data analysis looking at unemployment rates and factors of income inequality in New England states, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Vermont, along with demographic factors like race and gender aim to find a relationship between unemployment and income inequality with crime rates. Economic distress, usually caused by unemployment, can cause an individual to commit crimes due to hard times. Using machine learning decision trees …

The Price Of Victory: A Machine Learning Analysis Of How Salary Dispersion Influences Team Success In Major League Baseball, Joseph Belsanti

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the effect of salary dispersion on team success in Major League Baseball (MLB). Using data from 29 MLB teams over eight seasons (2012-2019), this study uses multiple models, such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), panel data regressions, and Random Forest machine learning, to investigate the degree – if any – that inequalities in a team's payroll impacts success, measured by winning percentage. The study's results show that, contrary to prevailing theories, salary dispersion – measured by a Gini coefficient – is not a significant predictor of a team's winning percentage (team success). Instead, team performance metrics, such …

The Impact Of Tariffs And Institutional Quality On Economic Growth In Latin America: A Panel Data Analysis, Blaisedel Frampton

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the relationship between tariffs and economic growth in Latin American countries and how institutional quality may impact this relationship. The study will use data from the World Development Indicators Data Bank. The data used comes from 18 high- or middle-income countries within South America and the Caribbean from the years 2003 to 2023. Results from this study were found using a fixed-effects regression model. The results from this study show that overall, there is a negative correlation between tariffs and economic growth in South America. There is also a positive correlation between institutional quality and economic growth …

Passive Vs. Active Etfs: A Comparative Data Analysis Of Market Performance And Investor Behavior, Herrick Louis

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the long-term performance of passive vs active ETFs. Using a comparative analysis of historical returns from 2015 to 2024, Regression modeling, and time Series Analysis, I assessed whether passive investing offers a strategic advantage overactive management. Drawing on data from VOO Passive, SWANX active, Bitcoin, and MAG 7 technology ETFs, and the Financial Sector.

Socioeconomic Factors Affecting Gendered Happiness: A Cross-Sectional Study Of Oecd Countries, Anusha Khan

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper explores how socioeconomic factors influence life satisfaction across OECD countries and how these effects vary by gender. Using a cross-sectional dataset, the study runs three separate regressions, total, men’s, and women’s happiness to test whether factors like health, education, safety, and support networks impact life satisfaction differently for men and women. A Random Forest model is also used to validate the robustness of selected predictors. Findings show that health and support matter universally, but men’s well-being is more closely tied to educational attainment, while women’s happiness is more sensitive to feelings of safety.

Decarbonization Under Carbon Policy And Pricing Shifts: A Machine Learning-Driven Synthetic Control And Panel Data Analysis, Chanboremey Teng

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This study evaluates the effectiveness of carbon pricing instruments – Carbon taxes and Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) – in reducing CO2 emissions per capita across 152 countries from 1990 to 2023 using dynamic panel regressions with fixed effects. The analysis estimates both short-run and long-run effects while controlling economic structure, energy mix, and environmental policy stringency (EPS). The results show that ETS policies yield the strongest long-term reduction in emissions at approximately 7.35%, followed by carbon taxes at 5.6%, and EPS regulatory measures at 6.35%. However, when all three instruments are modeled together, the marginal effects of pricing mechanisms weaken, …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

External Financing, Governance, And Infrastructure Development: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa, Afees Oluwashina Noah, Oladipo Olalekan David

CSID Journal of Infrastructure Development

Infrastructure development in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires diversified financing strategies to address a significant funding shortfall that cannot be met by domestic resources alone. This research evaluates the contributions of external financing—namely Official Development Assistance (ODA), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI)—in complementing domestic efforts to advance infrastructure in SSA. It examines their influence, alongside governance, on the development of physical and social infrastructure components. Employing methodologies such as Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and System Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM) across 43 SSA economies from 2000 to 2022, the analysis reveals that FDI substantially enhances physical …

Striking A Balance: Market Shock & Responses In Automotive Components Manufacturing, Emma Lane Mcgahey

All Theses

This thesis examines the effects of extreme market shocks on supply chain dynamics within the automotive industry. Through an analysis of demand data from an automotive manufacturer to its component suppliers (January 2018 to May 2024), the study investigates the relationship between market shocks and supply chain responses, providing insights into how auto components inventory management handles downstream responses to market shocks. With supporting public data—from FRED, BLS, and the U.S. Census Bureau resources—we explore two primary relationships: the impact of market shocks on the Average Standard Deviation of Demand (SDO) and the effect of demand variability on expedited pricing …

How Are Global Trade Relationships Affected By Western Sanctions?, Colin A. Martinez

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

Do sanctions actually have an impact on their intended targets? This paper seeks to fill a gap in the existing literature on the effectiveness of sanctions by measuring potential impacts on the trade relationships of targeted states after the imposition of sanctions. To do so, it turns to a comprehensive dataset that combines all trade and sanctions data for each of 229 states, arranged in 23,132 dyads, from 2000 through 2019. It then examines 792 regressions using a hybrid fixed effects difference-in-difference model applied to twelve different types of sanctions, differentiated by the sanctioning state’s membership in certain groups of …