Industrial Organization Commons^™

Transmission Of Firm-Level Demand Shocks To Stock Returns: Evidence From 10-K Text Analysis, Dylan Gunjan Parikh

Economics Undergraduate Senior Theses

Industrial organization and corporate finance papers that measure firm-level demand characteristics employ price, quantity, and product characteristic data that is unavailable in public financial disclosures. As a result, cross-sectional asset pricing literature attention to demand-side factors is limited. This paper constructs a demand shock measure from natural language processing of 28,263 publicly disclosed 10-K filings from 2001 to 2020. I find that a 1SD demand shock increases contemporaneously predicts a 1.8% increase (SE = 0.4%) in returns. Long-short portfolio sorted on demand shock generates 8.5% alpha (SE = 1.9%) against combined Fama-French and Q-factor models and a 0.91 sharpe ratio …

Comedy Tonight? Maximizing Theatre Audiences Using A Game Theory Model, Emma Lavaune Johnson

Quantitative Social Science Undergraduate Senior Theses

Existing theatre industry literature is comprised of several arguments regarding the amount of literature on the theatre industry. Several scholars argue that the theatre industry is not extensively studied in economics due to misconceptions about the profitability of theatre, the misalignment between artists’ actions and economic “rationality,” and the contributions of the arts industries to the broader U.S. economy. Beyond this academic debate, economic research on the theatre industry explores the nuances of theatre demand and the influence of audience preferences and demographics on theatre ticket demand.

This paper presents a game-theoretic model to study the strategic season selection decisions …

The Digital Commercial Revolution: U.S. Business Sales And The Entrepreneurial Exploitation Of Information And Communications Technology, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

Businesses have taken the opportunities, made possible by information and communications technology (ICT), to develop and use digital platform services and other digital tools to support sales. This paper estimates a model of U.S. business sales and uses the estimated model to assess the economic impact of the digital commercial revolution of the first two decades of the twenty-first century. The estimations show that the entrepreneurial initiatives—that drove the digital revolution in commerce by capitalizing on the new technologies made available by the ICT revolution—came to fruition in the wake of the Great Recession. For 2019, the last year before …

Research Diversity And Invention, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper explains that when there is great uncertainty about which elements of knowledge must be combined to make an invention, the likelihood of invention increases markedly—by many orders of magnitude—when there are numerous diverse research organizations, rather than just a few. The paper examines the possibility that competition (antitrust) policy toward mergers would be improved if enforcement efforts placed more emphasis on protecting the diversity that is provided by numerous research rivals in a market.

Government Royalties On Sales Of Pharmaceutical And Other Biomedical Products Developed With Substantial Public Funding: Illustrated With The Technology Transfer Of The Drug-Eluting Coronary Stent, Robert S. Danziger, John T. Scott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This study develops a detailed description of the successful technology transfer of an invention—the drug-eluting coronary stent—originating in intramural research within the National Institutes of Health. The history of the commercialization of the invention is used to illustrate a new policy, proposed and explained in this study, for the payment to the government of royalties on the sales of biomedical products developed with substantial public funding provided through indirect as well as direct funding avenues. The proposed policy addresses concerns about the high prices that taxpayers as consumers pay for biomedical products that were developed with funding from the taxpayers …

Wintertime For Deceptive Advertising?, Jonathan Zinman, Eric Zitzewitz

Dartmouth Scholarship

Casual empiricism suggests that deceptive advertising about product quality is prevalent, and several classes of theories explore its causes and consequences. We provide unusually sharp empirical evidence on its extent, mechanics, and dynamics. Ski resorts self-report substantially more natural snowfall than comparable government sources. The difference is more pronounced on weekends, despite third-party evidence that snowfall is uniform throughout the week—as one would expect given plausibly greater returns to exaggeration on weekends. Exaggeration is greater for resorts that plausibly reap greater benefits from it: those with expert terrain and those not offering money back guarantees. (JEL D83, L15, L83, M37, …

Factoryless Goods Producing Firms, Andrew B. Bernard, Teresa C. Fort

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper documents the existence and characteristics of US firms that do not manufacture themselves, but nonetheless are heavily involved in the production of goods. These factoryless goods producing firms (FGPFs) are formally in the wholesale sector but, unlike traditional wholesale firms, FGPFs design the goods they sell and coordinate production activities. FGPFs in the wholesale sector are larger and younger, pay higher wages, span more sectors and had more manufacturing employment in previous years compared to traditional wholesalers. FGPFs are more likely to import than typical wholesalers, though their imports constitute a smaller share of their total domestic activity.

Five Facts About Value-Added Exports And Implications For Macroeconomics And Trade Research, Robert C. Johnson

Dartmouth Scholarship

Due to the rise of global supply chains, gross exports do not accurately measure the amount of value added exchanged between countries. I highlight five facts about differences between gross and value-added exports. These differences are large and growing over time, currently around 25 percent, and manufacturing trade looks more important, relative to services, in gross than value-added terms. These differences are also heterogenous across countries and bilateral partners, and changing unevenly across countries and partners over time. Taking these differences into account enables researchers to obtain better quantitative answers to important macroeconomic and trade questions. I discuss how the …

Informality And Development, Rafael La Porta, Andrei Shleifer

Dartmouth Scholarship

In developing countries, informal firms account for up to half of economic activity. They provide livelihood for billions of people. Yet their role in economic development remains controversial with some viewing informality as pent-up potential and others viewing informality as a parasitic organizational form that hinders economic growth. In this paper, we assess these perspectives. We argue that the evidence is most consistent with dual models, in which informality arises out of poverty and the informal and formal sectors are very different. It seems that informal firms have low productivity and produce low- quality products; and, consequently, they do not …

Sweetening The Deal? Political Connections And Sugar Mills In India, Sandip Sukhtankar

Dartmouth Scholarship

Political control of firms is prevalent across the world. Evidence suggests that firms profit from political connections, and politicians derive benefit from control over firms. This paper investigates an alternative mechanism through which politicians may benefit electorally from connected firms, examining sugar mills in India. I find evidence of embezzlement in politically controlled mills during election years, reflected in lower prices paid to farmers for cane. This result complements the literature on political cycles by demonstrating how campaign funds are raised rather than used. Politicians may recompense farmers upon getting elected, possibly explaining how they can get away with pilferage. …

Multiple-Product Firms And Product Switching, Andrew B. Bernard, Stephen J. Redding, Peter K. Schott

Dartmouth Scholarship

This paper examines the frequency, pervasiveness, and determinants of product switching by US manufacturing firms. We find that one-half of firms alter their mix of five-digit SIC products every five years, that product switching is correlated with both firm- and firm-product attributes, and that product adding and dropping induce large changes in firm scope. The behavior we observe is consistent with a natural generalization of existing theories of industry dynamics that incorporates endogenous product selection within firms. Our findings suggest that product switching contributes to a reallocation of resources within firms toward their most efficient use. (JEL L11, L21, L25, …