Income Distribution Commons^™

Food Imports Under Foreign Exchange Constraints In The Cfa’S Franc Zone Of Sub-Saharan Africa (Ssa), Seydina Ousmane Sene

Theses and Dissertations--Agricultural Economics

To respond to the high imported food prices in their domestic markets, net food importing countries in the Communauté Financière Africaine (CFA) zone^[1] are adjusting their import tariffs and homologate domestic prices of imported commodities such as rice, wheat, maize, and sugar. This research uses a multivariate specification of error correction model (VECM) of estimation to investigate the link between food imports, world price index of rice, wheat, maize and sugar, real effective exchange rates, domestic food production, GDP, and trade openness in the short and long run. The data are on each homogenous commodity from 1969 to 2012. …

Short-Term Inflation Forecasting Models For Nigeria, Sani I. Doguwa, Sarah O. Alade

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to the results the best forecasting performance is demonstrated by the model based on the all items CPI estimated using the SARIMAX model. This model is, therefore, recommended for use in short-term forecasting of headline inflation in Nigeria. The forecasting performance up to eight months ahead, of the models based on …

An Efficient Two Sample Capture-Recapture Model With High Recaptures, Danjuma Jibasen, Yusuf J. Adams

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper proposed an efficient two sample capture-recapture model (Ma) with high recaptures and compared it with the existing models like the model of no factor effect (Mo), behavioral response model (Mb) and the Petersen model (Ms), using simulated data. We found that the Petersen model provides a better estimate of the population size when the observations follow a hypergeometric distribution and the population is overestimated when recapture is high. It was also found that the proposed model provides a better estimator of the population size than the existing ones when the recapture is high. This model is particularly useful …

Causal Relationship Between Stock Market Index And Exchange Rate: Evidence From Nigeria, Abdulrasheed Zubair

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper uses Johansen’s cointegration to test for the possibility of cointegration and Granger-causality to estimate the causal relationship between stock market index and monetary indicators (exchange rate and M2) before and during the global financial crisis for Nigeria, using monthly data for the period 2001–2011. Results suggest absence of long-run relationship before and during the crisis. The Granger-causality tests show a uni-directional causality running from M2 to ASI before the crisis while during the period of the crisis there is absence of causality between the variables. This suggests that ASI show responsiveness to M2. Thus, absence of the direct …

Investigating Chaos In The Nigerian Asset And Resource Management (Arm) Discovery Fund, Ibiyinka A. Fuwape, Samuel T. Ogunjo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates chaos in a Nigerian mutual fund, Asset and Resource Management Company Limited (ARM) for a period of eleven years. The existence of chaotic signals in the data was identified by the reconstruction of the phase space of the daily closing price of the fund and the delay time was quantified using mutual information function and the embedding dimension by the false nearest neighbours, where the values were identified to be 15 and 20 respectively. The presence of chaotic signals in the ARM data was further confirmed by the correlation dimension method which yielded a dimension of 2.2 …

Modeling The Nigerian Inflation Rates Using Periodogram And Fourier Series Analysis, Chukwuemeka O. Omekara,, Emmanuel J. Ekpenyong, Micheal P. Ekerete

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these objectives, monthly all-items inflation rates for the period were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) website. Periodogram and Fourier series methods of analysis are used to analyze the data. Based on the analysis, it was found that inflation cycle within the period was fifty one (51) months, which coincides with the …

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Essays On The Digital Divide - Explorations Through Global, National And Individual Lenses, Maria Skaletsky

2013

The Digital Divide has emerged as an important research and policy issue during the past thirty years. The divide exists at different levels, such as global, regional and individual levels. While extensive research already exists on this subject, the complexity of the issue presents opportunities for further research. In particular, there is ample scope for significantly contributing to the literature by leveraging recent analytics techniques, all the more since most of the literature on the Digital Divide relies on descriptive methods or on simple or multiple regression models. Therefore, the motivation for this study is two-fold. First, the Digital Divide …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

No abstract provided.

Persistent Place-Based Income Inequality In Rural Nebraska, 1979-2009, David J. Peters

Great Plains Research: A Journal of Natural and Social Sciences (through 2013)

This article addresses a current gap in the inequality literature by identifying demographic and economic factors that best explain persistent income inequality across N = 817 non metropolitan block groups in Nebraska between 1979 and 2009. Over one-half of rural places in Nebraska have average levels of income inequality, one-quarter have persistently low inequality, and one-fifth of places have persistently high levels of income inequality. Results of multinomial logistic regression suggest that persistently high-inequality places in rural Nebraska tend to be smaller, more urbanized, more ethnically diverse, more wealthy, more specialized in high-skill and low-skill industries, and have experienced fast …

Supply Chain Performance Of The Australian Beef Industry: Comparing The Industry Structure, Inter-Firm Relationships And Knowledge Systems Of Western Australia And Queensland, Mohammad Nasir Uddin,, Nazrul Islam, Mohammed Quaddus

Books & book chapters

The meat and livestock industry in Australia accounts for more than 45 per cent of Australia’s total value of agricultural production, within which beef is the largest industry in value terms (Nossal, Sheng and Zhao 2008). But the industry is experiencing a long-term decline in terms of trade, and has lagged behind other industries in rates of productivity improvement (MLA 2008). As it is critical for the economy that the beef industry maintains profitability and sustainability, it is believed that the performance, competitiveness and success of the industry depends on improving cost efficiency and productivity of the whole supply chain …

The Effect Of U.S. State Taxes On State Economic Prosperity, Casey Dainsberg

Political Science Theses and Capstones

Policy makers today are faced with trying to create solutions for economic troubles that become increasingly more complex and foreboding. Tax cuts and tax hikes are proposed and considered as possible solutions to various economic problems. However, the question still remains regarding which policies are most effective. The purpose of this research is to asses these competing claims. It seeks to find evidence that will shed light on one of these views. I have done this by accumulating tax and economic data from the fifty U.S. States between the years 2001-2009. Previous research has concluded that taxes do affect the …

China And Brazil: Potential Allies Or Just Brics In The Wall?, Anthony Petros Spanakos

Department of Political Science and Law Faculty Scholarship and Creative Works

Brazil is an increasingly important actor in global governance and for China specifically. Sino-Brazilian relations have deepened considerably but they remain concentrated in areas of trade and investment. There is also considerable overlap in interests between the two countries in other areas, such as diplomatic and political relations. At the same time, China must manage carefully important differences that exist over the enlargement of the UN and the potential challenge to the Brazilian industry.

Can Non-State Certification Systems Bolster State-Centered Efforts To Promote Sustainable Development Through The Clean Development Mechanism, Jonathan G.S. Koppell, Kelly Levin, Benjamin Cashore

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

Increasing economic globalization has coincided with the emergence and escalating influence of non-state actors and organizations in domestic and international policymaking, from shaping policy agendas to promoting private authority. The latter phenomenon has arisen, at least in part, from a critique of states' failures to adopt effective and enduring environmental policies. Rather than contest "command and control" institutions, non-state strategies embrace market approaches built around incentives and price mechanisms. Several forms of non-state authority have emerged, including corporate social responsibility, provision of information through labeling, and self-reporting.

From A Different Perspective, Chris Schrage

UNIversitas: Journal of Research, Scholarship, and Creative Activity

In recent years there have been many celebrity endorsements to programs meant to alleviate poverty. Now marketers are getting people to purchase items with the promise to send so much of the purchase price to various charities. What better way to promote social responsibility while gaining market share and profits? However, poverty is not going away in a manner that one might assume with so much money. Why not?

Conceptual Issues On Savings In Nigeria., A. J. Adam, A. V. Agba

Bullion

It is often held that capital accumulation is necessary and sufficient condition for growth and capital accumulation is almost synonymous with saving, hence the route to growth is then one of raising savings and smoothing consumption (Deaton, 1991). Savings is one of the key relevant macroeconomic variables in any economy. Its impact on the rate of capital accumulation, productivity and the degree of dependency of a nation on foreign capital and foreign ownership of domestic assets cannot be overemphasised. This paper reviews conceptual issues on savings behaviour in Nigeria. It also provided an analysis of the factors that may have …

Life Insurance As A Source Of Long-Term Savings In Nigeria: Regulator's Perspective., O. E. Chukwulozie

Bullion

Life insurance is an insurance contract in which the insured transfers, and the insurer assumes, the risk of death for a specified period of time. As in other insurance businesses, the insured transfers the risk to the insurer, and receives a life insurance policy, upon payment of a premium. The paper outlines the intrinsic benefits of life insurance, assess its performance in the Nigeria situation and examine what a regulator could do to facilitate its development. The paper reveals that, It was observed that there is an ongoing recapitalisation and consolidation programme which would boost the paid up share capital …

The State Of The Region: Hampton Roads 2002, James V. Koch, Vinod Agarwal, John R. Broderick, Rev. Dr. James Cobb, Chris Colburn, Ellie Costulis, Steve Daniel, Tatiana Isakovski, Sharon Lomax, Trish Manthey, Deborah Miller, Gilbert Yochum, Grace Wu

Economics Faculty Books

This is Old Dominion University's third annual "State of the Region" report.While it represents the work of many individuals connected in various ways to the university, the report does not constitute an official viewpoint of the University, or it's president, Dr. Roseann Runte.

Our "State of the Region" reports maintain the modest goal of making Hampton Roads an even better place to live. We are proud of our region's many successes, but realize that it is possible to improve the region's performance. Yet, in order to improve our performance, we must have accurate information about "where we are" and a …

Real Sector Policy Measures In The Year 2000 Budget And Sector Performance Appraisal, Isa Yuguda

Bullion

The article attempts to give the major thrust of the 2000 Budget, itemize the strategies for achievement as well as assessing the real sector performance from January- June 2000. The author noted that the It is important to mention that the year 2000 Budget was conceptualised within the framework of the overall projected economic policy targets of Government up to 2003. ln this regard, it is expected that the provisions of the budget will run in line with such set targets which include, GDP growth rate of 10%, single digit inflation, 70% employment (formal & informal), household access to electricity …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, December 1998, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The explanatory notes outline the methods for compiling financial, public finance, national accounts, and international trade statistics in Nigeria. Financial statistics are compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, covering lending and deposit interest rates, bank liquidity, and clearing house statistics. Public finance statistics include government revenue, expenditure, and debt, as well as debt conversion programs and promissory notes. National accounts are based on the System of National Accounts and include data on GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, consumption expenditure, and Gross National Savings. International trade statistics measure the value and quantity of imports and exports, presented in the Standard …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1998, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

The explanatory notes outline the methods for compiling financial, public finance, national accounts, and international trade statistics in Nigeria. Financial statistics are compiled from balance sheets and financial statements, covering lending and deposit interest rates, bank liquidity, and clearing house statistics. Public finance statistics include government revenue, expenditure, and debt, as well as debt conversion programs and promissory notes. National accounts are based on the System of National Accounts and include data on GDP, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, consumption expenditure, and Gross National Savings. International trade statistics measure the value and quantity of imports and exports, presented in the Standard …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, June 1992, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Statistical Bulletin

This volume data on various aspects of Nigeria's economy, including debt and banking sub-sector, central banking, financial markets, non-bank financial institutions, system clearinghouse activities, merchant and commercial banking, and public finance statistics for the year 1999. The data on financial institutions is based on the consolidation of commercial and merchant banks' first and second schedule statutory returns, computation of liquidity ratio, cash reserve ratio, loan/deposit ratio, proportion of loans to rural borrowers and small-scale enterprises, aggregate and sectoral distribution of credits, and the structure of licensed banks loans and advances. The data on financial markets is based on the consolidation …