Income Distribution Commons^™

Nigerian Stock Index: A Search For Optimal Garch Model Using High Frequency Data, Olaoluwa Simon Yaya

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper attempts to fit the best Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model for All Share Index (ASI) of Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) returns. A search is made on various GARCH variants specified on the assumptions of stationarity and asymmetry. Fractionally integrated types are also considered to capture the possibility of return series having property of long range dependency. The parameter estimations are carried out on the assumptions of normality and non-normality of GARCH innovations, with models and forecasts evaluated using information criteria and loss functions respectively. Under normality assumption, Hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH(1,d,1)) model is selected and Integrated GARCH (IGARCH(1,1)) …

Time Series Modeling Of Nigeria External Reserves, Iheanyichukwu S. Iwueze, Eleazar C. Nwogu, Valentine U. Nlebedim

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper discusses the levels and trend of external reserves in Nigeria. The relevance of this lies in the fact that it could help to monitor the reserves and throw early warning signal about any economic crisis. Monthly data on Nigeria external reserves for the period January 1999 to December, 2008 derived from the 2008 CBN Statistical Bulletin was analyzed using ARIMA model. Results of the analyses show that (i) the data requires logarithmic transformation to stabilize the variance and make the distribution normal (ii) the appropriate model that best describes the pattern in the transformed data is the Autoregressive- …

A Markov Decision Process Approach To Optimal Control Of A Multi-Level Hierarchical Manpower System, Akaninyene U. Udom

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

A recurrent problem in manpower control is how to attain the desired structural configuration in an optimal way, since it is possible to reach a desired structural configuration using different control inputs. The major aim of this paper is to develop a Markov Decision Process for optimal control of a Multi-level Hierarchical Manpower System (MHMS) by promotion and interdepartmental transfers. This is examined under control by intervention and contraction cost Markov Decision Process.

Livelihood Security Among Refugees In Uganda: Opportunities, Obstacles, And Physical Security Implications, Karen J. Norris

Student Publications

This research project was designed to investigate the challenges refugees face in securing a livelihood, to understand the extent to which the United Nations, the government of Uganda, and various aid groups are able to assist refugees in achieving self-reliance, and the capacity that refugees have to empower themselves. It also endeavors to expose any disparities between nationality groups, and the impact of these differences. Furthermore, this project aims to explore the impact of refugee livelihood security on regional physical security and community stability.

The study found that despite international and national policies, and efforts by both non-governmental organizations and …

Understanding The Ocean Economy Within Regional And National Contexts, Charles S. Colgan, Judith T. Kildow Dr

Presentations

• Extending discussion of the ocean economy beyond “How Big”

– Changes in the U.S. related to the Great Recession

– Decomposing changes to major types of change

– Finding relative sizes

• Exploring the expanding attention to the ocean economy in other parts of the world

– Likenesses and differences in:

• Definitions
• Measures
• Geographies
• Purposes

Where do we go from here?

2

Estimating The Economic Impact Of Garvan Woodland Gardens, Katherin A. Deck, Viktoria Riiman

Publications and Presentations

The study is organized as follows. First, the facilities and programs at Garvan Woodland Gardens are described in detail. Next, information on visitor and member counts, employment and volunteers, and financial information from the Gardens are provided. Finally, the results of the economic impact analysis from the IMPLAN input‐output model are presented for employment, value‐added, and output impacts on the Hot Springs area and the state of Arkansas. The detailed employment and output impacts by industry are available in the Appendix. Estimated employment impacts are compared to the county and state employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to …

Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …

Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …

Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …

Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …

Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …

Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …

Supply Chain Performance Of The Australian Beef Industry: Comparing The Industry Structure, Inter-Firm Relationships And Knowledge Systems Of Western Australia And Queensland, Mohammad Nasir Uddin,, Nazrul Islam, Mohammed Quaddus

Books & book chapters

The meat and livestock industry in Australia accounts for more than 45 per cent of Australia’s total value of agricultural production, within which beef is the largest industry in value terms (Nossal, Sheng and Zhao 2008). But the industry is experiencing a long-term decline in terms of trade, and has lagged behind other industries in rates of productivity improvement (MLA 2008). As it is critical for the economy that the beef industry maintains profitability and sustainability, it is believed that the performance, competitiveness and success of the industry depends on improving cost efficiency and productivity of the whole supply chain …

Where The Ends Don’T Meet: Measuring Poverty And Self-Sufficiency Among Oregon’S Families, Melissa Rowe, Sheila A. Martin, Danan Gu, Webb Sprague

Institute of Metropolitan Studies Publications

This report uses the Self-Sufficiency Standard developed by Dr. Diana Pearce at the University of Washington to analyze the extent to which Oregon households earn enough money to meet their basic needs without a public subsidy. This standard, a vast improvement on the federal poverty level, accounts for differences in the cost of living based on family structure, age of children, and county of residence. Dr. Pearce has defined the income required to meet basic needs for every county in Oregon and a number of household types. A large number of Oregon households not considered poor by the federal poverty …

Biotechnology And The Law: A Consideration Of Intellectual Property Rights And Related Social Issues, Michael D. Mehta

The University of New Hampshire Law Review

[Excerpt] “Recent advances in biotechnology are expected by many to improve crop yield, reduce reliance on agricultural inputs like pesticides and herbicides, alleviate world hunger, improve the safety and effectiveness of pharmaceuticals, assist in the discovery of genes that trigger diseases like cancer, and make more efficient our legal institutions through DNA testing. Clearly, innovations in biotechnology are a powerful force for social change, and they pose unique challenges and opportunities for legal scholars and institutions. This section of the Pierce Law Review focuses on the interface between law and technology by examining how innovations in biotechnology accelerate debates about …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1994, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1994, Nigeria faced economic challenges such as declining GDP growth, inflation, and a weakened external sector due to expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, political unrest, and labor issues. Despite this, the global economy saw stronger recovery in industrialized countries and developing regions like Asia and Latin America. The Nigerian economy struggled with slow growth, manufacturing decline, rising inflation, large budget deficit, and weakened external sector performance. Efforts to stabilize the exchange rate were hindered by differences between official and unofficial market rates. Internationally, there were improvements in the world economy with higher growth rates in developed and developing countries. …

Entral Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1989, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The Nigerian economy showed improvement in 1989 compared to 1988. Economic Growth: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 4.0%, driven by growth in agriculture and industry. The overall balance of payments moved from a deficit to a surplus, largely due to a significant increase in crude oil exports. The unemployment rate declined slightly, with more jobs created through government programs. Nigeria's external assets increased significantly, reflecting a deliberate policy to build official reserves. Inflation: Despite some improvement, inflationary pressures remained high, with domestic prices rising by 40.9%. Stagnant Manufacturing: Manufacturing production grew at a slow pace due to high production …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1986, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN annual report and statement of accounts for 1986 covers economic performance including key economic indicators such as inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates for 1986. The development in 1986 were mixed. The GDP at constant 1977/78 factor cost was estimated at N25,290 million, representing a decline of 3.3 per cent and the decline was largely due to poor performance of the manufacturing, crude petroleum, wholesale and retail trade sectors. The trajectory of monetary aggregates was relatively in the download direction. Money supply indicated a 1.2 per …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1983, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

In 1983, Nigeria's economy experienced severe stagflation, with GDP falling by 4.4%, more than the 3.4% decline recorded in 1982. Domestic inflation was 23.2%, more than three times the 7.7% recorded in 1982. The external sector also suffered from the general malaise, with the recorded value of external trade falling from N21.3 billion in 1982 to N17.3 billion in 1983. Agricultural production fell sharply due to severe droughts, bush fires, and diseases/pest infestations in livestock and crops. The volume of primary commercial energy consumed increased, with the index going up by 4.4% in 1983. Inflationary pressures intensified due to the …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Account For The Year Ended 31st December, 1982, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

The economic slowdown in 1981-1982 led to a decline in mineral and export crop production, with crude oil production falling from 1.440 million barrels in 1981 to 1.29 million barrels in 1982. The Central Bank of Nigeria business survey showed increased manufacturing sales and inventories of finished goods. Inflation decelerated to its lowest level since 1973, mainly due to reduced monetary expansion and increased production of staple food, livestock products, and fish. The money supply rose by 5.6% in 1980 and 3.1% in 1982, but the government sector's share in bank credit increased. The Gross National Product of all industrialized …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1966, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for 1966 discussed the economic performance of Nigeria with emphasis on inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. The state of the Nigerian economy in 1966 was dictated mainly by the social and political uncertainties that engulfed the country beginning in 1965. The country experienced mounting political problems in 1965, which, by the fourth quarter of that year, had become an important factor in the future investment plans of the business community. A growing burden of external debt and the slow-down …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1965, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for 1965 discussed the economic performance of Nigeria with emphasis on inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. Two major developments dominated the world economic scene in 1965. One was the overall slowdown of economic expansion in most industrialized countries. The other was the overall contraction in the growth rate of world trade and in the flow of international capital. Due to the problem of balance of payment disequilibrium, the industrialized countries intensified economic measures to achieve internal stability and equilibrium …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 1961., Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

CBN Annual Report and Statement of Accounts for 1961 discussed the economic performance of Nigeria with emphasis on inflation rate, GDP growth, exchange rate stability, banking sector performance, monetary policy, financial stability, fiscal policy, and regulatory updates. Economic activity, which had been at a relatively high level during the year of independence, expanded further during 1961. The production of most of the agricultural export commodities attained high levels during the 1960-1961. Mineral production varied widely among individual products but on balance activity was considerably higher in 1961 than in the previous year. Industrial production continued to grow, reflecting both the …