Growth and Development Commons^™

What Complexity Costs: Growth, Productive Capability, And The Vulnerability Of Interconnectedness, Pete Mcniff

Master's Theses

Growth depends on the sophistication of what an economy can produce, but economies that have specialized more deeply depend on the market access that sustains it. I test whether this dependence makes complex economies more vulnerable when access is disrupted, computing the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) from firm-level records in the U.S. Census of Manufactures (1850--1880) and using the Panic of 1873 as a natural experiment to measure county-level market access shocks from railroad bond defaults following Dutta (2024) and Donaldson and Hornbeck (2016). ECI predicts production and employment growth across all three decade windows, with the association strengthening as …

Spatial Analysis Of Maize Yields And Household Dietary Diversity In Sub-Saharan Africa: Causal Evidence From A Machine Learning Instrument, Addi Joof

Master's Theses

MAIZE YIELDS AND HOUSEHOLD DIETARY DIVERSITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: EVIDENCE ON THE CAUSAL EFFECT FROM A MACHINE LEARNING INSTRUMENT

Addi Joof, University of San Francisco, May 2026

This paper provides estimates of the effect of maize yield on household dietary diversity across seven Sub-Saharan African countries, using data from 36,474 maize-growing households in the Living Standards Measurement Study Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) panels for the period 2008--2021. OLS estimates which include district and country-by-wave fixed effects yield a positive and significant coefficient of 0.070 (SE = 0.006, p < 0.001), implying that a 10 percent increase in maize yield raises the Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS) by approximately 0.007 food groups. Because self-reported yields are subject to classical measurement error and unobserved household characteristics confound the OLS estimate, we construct an instrumental variable using a Random Forest model trained on satellite-derived agro-environmental features including the Enhanced Vegetation Index, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Growing Degree Days, precipitation, and soil moisture obtained from Google Earth Engine at the GPS-coordinate-by-year level. Our preferred 2SLS specification, which adds region fixed effects to absorb persistent sub-national geographic variation, returns a positive point estimate of 0.217 (SE = 0.206; 95% CI: -0.19 to +0.63, p = 0.294) larger than OLS and consistent with downward attenuation bias, but imprecisely estimated and statistically indistinguishable from zero at conventional levels. We interpret the OLS estimate of 0.070 as a credible lower bound on the true effect, with the IV evidence pointing to a moderately larger but uncertain magnitude. Heterogeneity analysis reveals a declining gradient across consumption quintiles the effect is strongest among the poorest households (Q1: 0.055, p < 0.01) and diminishes with wealth (Q5: 0.015, not significant) while showing no gradient across market-integration levels. These patterns are consistent with own-consumption, rather than market income from surplus sales, as the primary pathway from yield to dietary diversity. OLS estimates are positive and significant in five of six estimable countries. The findings suggest that maize yield improvements can serve as a nutrition co-investment, particularly for subsistence-oriented smallholders, though the available data do not permit a sharp causal quantification of the effect size.

Keywords: dietary diversity, maize yields, instrumental variables, Sub-Saharan Africa, LSMS-ISA, satellite …

Climate Shocks, Crop Yields, And School Enrollment In Rural Ethiopia, Mallika Matharu

Master's Theses

This study investigates how climate-induced shocks to agricultural productivity affect school enrollment in rural Ethiopia. Using five waves of panel data from the Ethiopia Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) and satellite-derived weather indicators, I estimate the causal effects of crop yields, specifically Teff, Sorghum, and Maize, on children’s school attendance. To address the endogeneity of agricultural output, I instrument crop yields with agro-climatic measures such as growing degree days (GDD), harmful degree days (HDD), and soil moisture during the Meher growing season. The main empirical strategy uses a two-stage instrumental variable approach with region and wave fixed effects. Results suggest …

The Long-Term Effect Of Universities On Local Technology, Dafina Rizvanolli

Master's Theses

This paper studies the long-term effects of universities on local economic complexity, contributing to new evidence on how higher education institutions shape local productive capabilities over time. While extensive research documents universities’ positive impact on development, fundamental questions remain about the mechanisms through which they operate. Our study employs the Economic Complexity Index (ECI), a measure that captures the diversity and ubiquity of regional economic structures, to provide novel insights into universities’ influence on local economies. Building on Andrews (2023), we exploit historical natural experiments in university site selection during the 19^th and 20^th centuries in the U.S. …

Downstream Delays: Effects Of Flooding On Childrens Education And Time Use In Peru, Miki Robert Izu

Master's Theses

Flooding is a major cause of destruction and economic loss affecting over 80 million people annually. Flooding during childhood can lead to educational setbacks with long term economic impacts. This study investigates the causal impacts of flood shocks on educational achievement and children's time use using the Young Lives Survey, a panel dataset surveying children in Peru over 19 years of childhood. This study finds that flooding causes a temporary positive "spike" in girls hours of labor immediately after a flood which subsides by three to six years after flooding. The additional hours of labor does not reduce hours of …

Unequal Shocks: The Heterogeneous Impact Of Earthquakes, Claire Marie James

Master's Theses

What effect does neighborhood wealth have on disaster outcomes and disaster induced migration? Using the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake in Southern Türkiye and Syria as a natural shock, I examine how the short term migration response to building damage and earthquake exposure differs by average neighborhood home prices. Using a panel dataset of population by bing tile, from Meta’s Data for Good Project, I employ time series and cross sectional regression analysis. I find that wealthy neighborhoods are better able to retain population than non-wealthy counterparts.

Weather Impacts On Migration And Food Insecurity In Bangladesh, Brendon M. Wong, Andrew Hobbs

Master's Theses

This paper analyzes the impact of weather shocks on household migration and food insecurity, and the mechanisms in which they do so. As climate change continues to impact weather patterns, subsistence farmers remain extremely vulnerable and can experience decreases in welfare. Using the Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey, we construct a panel dataset to measure the effects of temperature and rainfall on remittance amounts, food consumption scores, and child wasting z-scores. We observe that weather has strong impacts on these outcomes but are dependent on the rice variety and growing season. We do not find strong evidence that the mechanism in …

The Hidden Logic Behind Migration And Success, Elsa Russom

Master's Projects and Capstones

This research paper explores the hidden drivers of financial success among Eritrean migrants navigating uncertainty, displacement, and limited institutional access. Drawing on original survey data collected from diaspora communities across East African host countries, I apply a mixed-methods framework combining ordinal and binary logistic regression, random forest classification, bootstrapping, and Bayesian causal mediation; to identify the structural and cultural variables most predictive of financial stability. The findings reveal that participation in Ekub, a traditional rotating savings association, and engagement in communal support systems are the strongest predictors of financial success, outperforming conventional factors such as age, education, or employment status. …

What Gives? Trust, Risk, Altruism, And Reciprocity Across 76 Countries, Sherwin Mosavat

Master's Theses

Abstract:

The decades-long literature pertaining to gender-specific preferences lies at the intersection of economics and psychology with a primary focus on the correlation between economic development and gender-specific preferences. Better understanding of this correlation has helped researchers understand how individuals make decisions for their education, finances, and occupation. Falk & Hermle (2018) assess the correlation between GDP and various gender-specific preferences including trust, risk, altruism, and reciprocity. In order to better understand the relationship between economic development and gender-specific preferences, I expand on the Falk & Hermle 2018 framework by introducing new macroeconomic, prosocial, and cultural variables as additional explanatory …

Can Aspiration And Financial Literacy Interventions Relieve Internal Constraints? Evidence From Uganda And India, Veronika Divis

Master's Theses

Can aspiration and financial literacy interventions relieve internal constraints? We address this question through a novel experiment in Uganda and India, using 617 participants in 89 already existing borrowing groups of microfinance institutions. We carry out aspiration and financial literacy treatments as well as a combined treatment group which received both treatments to measure effects on aspirations, hope, agency, and pathway indices. Results show that receiving the aspirations treatment led to 0.34, 0.42, 0.18, and 0.40 standard deviation increases in aspirations, agency, pathways, and aspirational hope, respectively. The game and combined treatment groups also showed positive effects but lacked statistical …

Exploring The Relationship Between Load Shedding And Crime In Gauteng, Bhavesh Ram

Master's Theses

This study investigates the impact of load shedding, a recurring power outage phenomenon in South Africa, on crime rates in the densely populated Gauteng province. Using a novel dataset that combines Eskom's load shedding schedules with detailed crime statistics from 2015 to 2022, a fixed-effects regression model is employed to examine the relationship between blackout hours and various crime categories. Findings reveal that while load shedding does not significantly affect overall crime rates, it significantly increases the incidence of contact crimes and sexual offenses, particularly during daylight hours. Additionally, our results provide evidence that load shedding diminishes the ability of …

Labors Of Love And Loss: Exploring Relationships In Remitting Latine-American Families, Sequoyah Sv Hilton

Master's Theses

This paper examines the impact remittances have in Latin-American families across borders through qualitative interviews. Remittances, or international transfers of money, are a common support strategy of global migrant communities. There are divergent opinions on remittances, either positioning them as a great potential for developing lower and middle-income countries, or critiquing them as too heavily depended on by states and created as a survival support mechanism by communities to compensate for state neglect. While they are a massive cash flow at the international level, there is a greater need to blend analyses of remittances at the international level at the …

Does Higher Socioeconomic Status Associate With Better Mental Health Outcomes Among Primary Caregivers In Rural China?, Wenwen Zhang

Master's Theses

This study explores the intricate relationship between socioeconomic status (SES) and the mental health outcomes of primary caregivers in rural China, focusing on the Early Childhood Development (ECD) context in Ya'an. Anchored in a major intervention project launched in 2023, the study critically examines the hypothesis that higher socioeconomic status correlates with lower levels of negative emotions among caregivers.

Utilizing cross-sectional data, the research investigates how educational attainment and household income influence caregivers' mental health, measured through the DASS-21 score in three dimensions: stress, anxiety, and depression. The findings reveal that higher household income and educational levels are significantly associated …

Leveling Up Financial Literacy: Evidence From Game-Based Intervention With Aspiration Treatment Amongst Rural Women In India, Akash Shaji

Master's Theses

In India, rural women exhibit notably low financial literacy levels, necessitating effective and scalable educational interventions. Our randomized controlled trial evaluated a novel approach, combining game-based financial literacy education with a video documentary-based aspirations intervention, targeting women in self-help groups in Karnataka. The study included 348 participants and employed an ANCOVA model adjusted for clustering to analyze the effects. The results demonstrate significant improvements in financial literacy and aspirations, particularly when interventions are combined. The game-based intervention alone significantly enhanced digital literacy, financial confidence, and behavioral indices such as agency, pathways, and aspirations. The aspirations intervention also independently affected financial …

Matrilineal Ethnic Affiliation And Female Empowerment: Investigating Attitudes Towards Female Autonomy And Health In Ivorian Households, Martine Hind Stølan

Master's Theses

Kinship structure is a fundamental aspect of anthropology, however, there is still a gap in literature on its impact on economic research, particularly regarding female autonomy and health. This study aims to address this gap by examining the influence of matrilineal ethnic affiliation on attitudes towards female autonomy and health within Ivorian households. Using data from the 2011 IPUMS Demographic and Health Survey for the Ivory Coast, using female responses, this study investigates the complex dynamics shaping attitudes towards female autonomy and access to health care. Analysis on these aspects is done using ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic estimations. …

Game Changer: Mobile Apps Leveling Up Field Experiments, Lucie Schulz

Master's Theses

This study investigates the feasibility of digital financial education for microcredit borrowers with limited digital literacy in Eastern Uganda using a mobile game simulating real-world livestock investments. Analyzing 117,870 decisions made by 133 participants across five game sessions, we found a statistically significant increase in decision-making speed, with the speed more than doubling between the first and last game session, indicating growing familiarity with the game interface.

However, the overall error rate of participants increased significantly, possibly due to fatigue or the introduction of more complex financial concepts in higher levels. Additional analysis of the initial decisions at each level …

Feeling The Heat: Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Of Heat On Human Cooperation, Scott K. Klaus

Master's Theses

The goal of this paper is to examine how increased temperatures affect human behavior in terms of cooperation. Currently, there is an abundance of literature regarding increased aggression in humans as temperatures rise. However, there is ambiguity concerning whether a similar effect exists in altering levels of cooperation in human interactions. Additionally, people of different characteristics may be influenced by heat at varying levels. First, we run a baseline model of prosociality on different heat measurements, such as standard and wet-bulb temperatures. Included in this model are experimental specification variables, a “trigger”, and characteristics. The trigger is defined as losing …

The Child Nutrition Cost Of Weather Shocks In Nigeria, Danielle M. Abaya

Master's Theses

Child malnutrition is alarmingly high in Nigeria with the highest number of malnourished children, the second highest population of stunted children worldwide and 17 million Nigerians facing food insecurity. According to the World Health Organization, children are predicted to suffer about 80% of weather-related illnesses and deaths. As climate change continues to pose the greatest health threat and while scientists predict its irreversible effects in the next 10 years, countries such as Nigeria are already experiencing the burden of climate change today. This study uses total rainfall to measure precipitation and two Enhanced Vegetation Index variables, total change in greenness …

Sweet And Timely Insurance: The Role Of Honey In Reducing Coffee Producer Food Insecurity Exposure In Mexico, Grant Xavier Storer

Master's Theses

Smallholder coffee producers face a combination of pre- and post-harvest risk factors that leaves them particularly vulnerable to food insecurity. A popular form of on-farm diversification is honey production through beekeeping, that has both nutritional and commercial value. This study investigates the role of honey production as means of food security management due to the heightened pollinating activity during the coffee flowering stage that follows the annual coffee harvest provides an additional non-contemporaneous source of income. Using primary data collected in coffee-producing regions of Chiapas, Mexico, I find that during the honey harvest months, which occurs during the early stage …

Early Life Exposure To Enso And Adult Human Capital, Ashley J. Stewart

Master's Theses

Do El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions during a woman's early childhood lead to negative health outcomes in adulthood? This study poses as an extension of the 2021 paper by Anttila-Hughes et al. titled “ENSO impacts child undernutrition in the global tropics” and utilizes data from the same DHS, UDEL temperature and precipitation, and NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction datasets. It proposes to investigate whether the undernutrition effects found in children persist into adulthood by measuring the effects on their mothers and the intergenerational effects on their offspring. Results indicate that a 1℃ increase in sea surface temperatures in …

Development And Economic Complexity Of Mexican Municipalities: Based On Their Energy Access And Gross Production., Angelica Gloria Velasco

Master's Theses

In 2015, Mexico ranked 22nd in the international list of ECI; Out of 136 countries, Mexico had a higher index than Netherlands and Denmark. How is this possible for a developing economy that in 2014 reached its highest inequality index at 50.3%? This research is focused on the behavior of the Economic Complexity Index when it interacts with income inequality (Gini Coefficient), the gross production and human development (which in this case is focused on access to basic services: education and electricity). In the first and second sections, this paper highlights the importance of the analysis at a municipality level …

Heating Systems And Households’ Expenditure, Svitlana Holyk

Master's Theses

The heating energy expenditure has been frequently taken to the consideration across different studies of poverty reduction. However, there is an unresolved question related to understanding how households’ expenditures might be distinct due to the heating system characteristics. This research implements matching methods to investigate the causal effect of the heating system on households’ gas and electricity expenditure in Ukraine. The result indicates that there is a significant difference in the utility expenditure between the District heating system (DHS) and the Individual heating system (IHS) households. The inherited from the past the Soviet District heating system Model in Ukraine doesn’t …

Southeast Asia & The Hidden Green Revolution: A Study On Foreign Direct Investment In Eco-Investments In Asean, Ravi Chailertborisuth

Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper aims to find: To what extent foreign direct investment is fueling the renewable energy transition in ASEAN. The year 1966 saw the founding of ASEAN, the Association for Southeast Asian Nations. The five founding member nations were: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Over time, this group of nations grew to include nations such as: Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Brunei, and Myanmar. The IGO (inter-governmental organization) aims to foster “economic, social, cultural, technical, educational and other fields” (ASEAN). The IGO is successful, allowing capital to flow cross-borders with more ease, and encourage economic corporation across all nations. Since …

Using Machine Learning To Analyze Children’S Drawings As Indicators Of Mental Well-Being, Nicholas R. Lawrie

Master's Theses

Human figure drawings are a well-studied diagnostic tool for emotional distress in children. Cleft lip/palate is one of the most common birth defects in the world, and has been shown to negatively impact emotional well-being in childhood which can have negative economic consequences in adulthood. Utilizing a dataset of human figure drawings from children in India and survey data on mental health, this paper will assess the impact of corrective surgery on mental health outcomes, as well as assess the validity of the drawing emotional indicators themselves. The results indicate that while the emotional indicators may not be valid in …

Inaccessible Interpolated Imagery: How Coffee Farmers In The State Of Chiapas Might Access Political Economic Opportunity Through Representation, Paolo Fiann Bicchieri

Master's Theses

Here is a useful parable to boil down the idea of this project and set the tone: when one goes to the bar to tell a story about a fight at the bar, they would never venture to place themselves as the hero of the brawl, taking out three drunkards in a single punch, unless they were really in the bar, at that time, fighting a good fight. One would never do this as the bartender, locals, and regulars would all know if this were the case or not. Yet transnational corporations, governments, and even consumers do this all the …

Degrowth And Catholic Social Thought: Rethinking Socio-Economics For A Planet In Crisis, Chad G. Baron

Master's Theses

It is assumed within both degrowth literature and the social teaching of the Roman Catholic Church (CST) that socio-economic transitions and transformations are needed due to the failings of the dominant capitalist paradigm. Both bodies of thought engage with issues of socio-economic transitions by considering what constitutes globally just development, and by outlining key principles they espouse to be foundational to global justice. By highlighting these principles, and locating the affinities between the two, these theories of socio-economic development can benefit from engaging with the other’s promoted framework. What could follow is a more coherent and holistic approach to development, …

Does My Skin Tone Really Matter? A Socioeconomic Analysis In Nigeria., Mutiu O. Fakorede

Master's Theses

Abstract: Does my skin tone really matter? If it does, to what extent and direction does skin tone predict socioeconomic outcomes, especially amongst people of color who have experienced colonial rule with its white supremacy agenda? In this research, we examined if skin tone measured in individual typology angle (ITA) does not affect employability, income, partner selection, and political representativeness. With a focus on Nigeria, the most populous black nation, a former British colony, we addressed this broad question through a survey. Using the iterative capability of Qualtrics which randomly picks a set of three pictures with known ITA and …

The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment On Colombia’S Economic Growth And The Role Of Human Capital: Does Foreign Direct Investment Foster Growth?, Jean K. Plantin

Master's Theses

Abstract: Since the pioneering work of John H. Dunning on the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the economic growth of the United Kingdom, many experts have debated the growth effect of FDI in an economy. This study investigated the impact of FDI on Colombia’s economic growth from 1990 to 2019. Moreover, it explored whether the Colombian economy has benefited from positive spillover from FDIs. Additionally, the paper examined how the stock level of human capital conditioned the effect of FDI on GDP per capita growth. To this end, the analysis separated tertiary enrollments from the human capital …

Do Conditional Cash Transfers Increase School Enrollment? Evidence From Brazil, Jeanette L. Silvernale

Master's Theses

Conditional cash transfer programs have been widely deployed across the globe. They seek to bolster human capital by providing benefits contingent upon a variety of actions such as school attendance and regular health checkups. Bolsa Familia is the most extensive conditional cash transfer program, serving 46 million Brazilian citizens. Despite its expansive size, there have been seldom large-scale micro evaluations of the program. Limited data has resulted in small sample sizes drawn from a single point in time. Our study diverges from the rest and utilizes a novel administrative dataset with an overall sample of nearly 60 million and a …

Transitioning Into Retirement: Effect Of Pension Expansion On Elderly Labor Force Participation In India, Devaprasad Sahadevan

Master's Theses

The welfare effects of public social security programs have been extensively studied in the context of developing economies where the reliance on state is much larger for the provision of basic goods and services. Pension schemes and reforms, however, are met with much less fiscal investment considering the demographic composition and the requisite demands of the larger proportion of youth- and working age- population. Given the rapid pace of demographic transition, there will inevitably be an ever-growing pressure and economic problems associated with aging are bound to become more apparent. As transitioning into retirement is an under-studied area in countries …